Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 5th

Race 1 Glenroy Chaff Mdn (1200m) 3:14pm (AEDT)
1. Miami City (5) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: Brett Pope	5	5	5	5	5.1	5
2. Zac Luvs To Fly (1) J: Troy Turner (57.5kg) T: Ms C Stelmach	67	61	67	61	67	61
3. Enticing (6) J: Jason Brown (57.5kg) T: J P Taylor	20	21	21	21	19.6	21
4. Celebrity Man (8) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: G & A Williams	2	2	2	2	1.98	1.9
5. Cirrusphere (3) J: Ryan Hill (57.5kg) T: Martin Allan	15	15	16	17	15	15
6. First Moment (4) J: Brad Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	19	19	19	19	18.6	19
7. Gold Merits (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55.5kg) T: J P Taylor	34	31	26	31	32	26
8. Bread To Flirt (2) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi	3.9	4.2	3.7	3.8	3.85	4
9. Gracious Girl (9) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55.5kg) T: Ms P Wagg	251	301	301	151	301	251

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

We kick off the card with a $1.50 favourite for the Peters/Williams team here in the form of (4) Celebrity Man, who is regally bred. By Redoute’s Choice out of Celebrity Miss (the dam of Celebrity Queen), he makes his debut after three trials. Two of those were back in September and he returned to the trials nine days ago, where he looked good. But taking $1.50 for a first-starter on a heavy 8 track isn’t worth the risk at all. Happy to sit and watch.

Tip: (4) Celebrity Man $1.55 Unibet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2 Tabtouch Better Your Bet-0Mwly (1100m) 3:54pm (AEDT)
1. Son Son (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (62kg) T: A G Durrant	2.4	2.4	2.6	2.4	2.45	2.4
2. Kick A Goal Son (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: J F Miller	12	12	12	12	11.2	12
3. Divine Pair (3) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: C H Webster	3.9	4	3.9	4	4.05	4
4. Time Scale (4) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Simon Miller	4.2	4.2	4	4	4.05	4.2
5. Born Spicy (5) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: D & B Pearce	7.5	7	6.5	6.5	6.9	7
6. Lasting Impact (6) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham	51	41	41	34	43	51

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

Decent little race. (1) Son Son is a horse I have a lot of time for and he resumed with a dominant win in a very hot race first up. He did completely dictate that race from the front though, which he may not be able to do today. He also drops back to 1100m second up, which isn’t ideal in my opinion. I thought his best distance would be somewhere near 1400m so the drop from 1200m to 1100m second up is a little query. With that said, I do think he’s the best horse in the race, he’s adaptable and versatile, and he isn’t all that badly in at the weights with 60kg. He’s the horse to beat.

(5) Born Spicy wasn’t too bad first up in a similar race to this which has proven to be a decent form reference. She then went to Pinjarra and beat the odds-on favourite Nowhiteflag, which might prove to be a good form line. She looks to be the value at $7.00 currently.

(3) Divine Pair should relish the wet conditions today. His only win came two starts ago on a wet track at Pinjarra, where he won easily. He was outclassed last start but drops back to 1100m today and should be competitive.

(4) Time Scale resumed with a win in Class 1 company over 1000m. Always have to respect Simon Miller runners.

Tip: (1) Son Son $2.30 BlueBet

Also Backing: (5) Born Spicy $7.00 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Son Son, 0.5 units WIN Born Spicy

Race 3 Crown Perth Hcp (C3) (1400m) 4:34pm (AEDT)
1. Empire Reign (3) J: Ms Madi Derrick (59.5kg) T: D L Morton	1.85	1.85	1.85	1.8	1.72	1.9
2. New Amsterdam (2) J: Brad Rawiller (58.5kg) T: A G Durrant	3.9	3.9	4.4	4	4.25	4
3. Peri Peri Para (5) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: K J Mifflin	23	21	31	21	21.5	23
4. Prize Pursuit (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: J F Miller	4	4.2	3.8	3.5	4.25	3.8
5. King Of Judah (7) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: Summer Dickson	19	19	20	15	19.2	19
6. Trade Prize (4) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: Campbell Mccallum
7. Nodustonme (1) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: P D Tapper	101	81	101	101	95	81

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

(4) Prize Pursuit ran well first up but just found one too good which swooped home over the top at a million to one. Maybe being first up with just one trial under the belt meant he was a bit vulnerable, but I think this is a nice race for him if he takes improvement from that run. He’s certainly bred to handle the wet, being by an Irish stallion out of a New Zealand mare with O’Reilly bloodlines. He has trialled once before on soft ground and won that trial.

(2) New Amsterdam won his first start back under the care of Adam Durrant after a prep in Kalgoorlie. He should take improvement from that run and he draws softly in barrier 2 for a good run behind the leaders. Has reasonable form on soft ground so looks a leading chance again today.

(1) Empire Reign is favourite, coming off a first up defeat when he was very well backed. He sat three-wide the trip and weakened into 3rd. He was racing in Listed company last prep so with even luck from the draw today, he will be hard to beat. Just not keen to dive in at $2.10.

Tip: (4) Prize Pursuit $3.80 Bet365

Saver: (2) New Amsterdam $4.05 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Prize Pursuit, 0.5 units WIN New Amsterdam

Race 4 Amelia Park Lodge Hcp (C3) (1400m) 5:12pm (AEDT)
1. Aragain (9) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: D L Morton	4	4	3.9	4.4	4.05	4
2. Smile For Me (8) J: Ryan Hill (58.5kg) T: V A Brockman	23	21	21	21	21	21
3. Divine Quest (6) J: Peter Knuckey (58kg) T: C H Webster	3.8	3.9	3.8	3.7	3.8	3.8
4. Safe To Makeup (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: J T Warwick	13	13	12	14	13	12
5. Miyagi (1) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (56.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	14	14	14	14	14.6	13
6. Regal Dividend (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: N D Parnham	19	18	19	16	19.2	18
7. Tri For Us (3) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: A G Durrant	2.7	2.8	2.9	2.7	2.7	2.7
8. Nic's Daughter (2) J: Jason Whiting (54.5kg) T: Jade Tangaroa	101	91	91	91	91	81
9. Paris Girl (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54.5kg) T: F R Kersley	27	26	21	21	24.5	26

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 5:12pm (AEDT)

(3) Divine Quest should be ready to peak third up today. She had no luck first up when trapped three-wide without cover throughout, and she was good last start behind runaway winner Sentimental Queen over this track and distance. Third up now, she should be hard to hold out.

(1) Aragain was sound on stable debut for Dan Morton first up. She was only beaten 1.7L and she should come on from that run. She’s got good wet track form, so despite her poor stats at this distance, I think she’ll run a very good race.

(7) Tri For Us was good in defeat on debut and then won dominantly at his second career start. That was in maiden grade and she now jumps straight to a class 3, which isn’t easy to do, but she draws well and Chris Parnham sticks. Durrant wouldn’t be putting her in this race if she wasn’t up to it.

Tip: (3) Divine Quest $5.50 Unibet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Divine Quest

Race 5 Flying Colours Restaurant (C1) (1100m) 5:49pm (AEDT)
1. Ginger Knight (9) J: Alan Kennedy (60kg) T: J G Pike	17	18	18	16	19	19
2. Mercanto (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi	2.25	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.15	2.2
3. Paeroa Lad (6) J: Jason Whiting (60kg) T: M W Bairstow	21	20	19	21	20	21
4. Chix Chatter (5) J: Jett Stanley (59.5kg) T: D R Harrison	11	11	12	12	11	12
5. Bosnipp (3) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: J T Warwick	12	12	12	11	11.4	11
6. God's Business (2) J: Ms Madi Derrick (59kg) T: Ms P Kenney	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.3	5.5
7. Playing Red (7) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: A G Durrant	6	6	5.5	6.5	6.4	5.5
8. Differentiator (10) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (57kg) T: Greg Cave	16	15	15	13	15.4	14
9. Hariasa (4) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: B A Miller	46	41	41	34	38	41
10. Shezabutoo (8) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: Misty Bazeley	81	81	61	51	65	71

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 5:52pm (AEDT)

(7) Playing Red gets Chris Parnham booked first up from a spell, and should enjoy these track conditions. All her best form has been on soft ground to date. She has form around the likes of Magical Dream from last prep, which lines up very well for a race like this.

(6) God’s Business led all the way to score on debut at Narrogin. It can be advantageous to be on speed at Narrogin and he didn’t beat much, but he did do it very well.

(2) Mercanto jumped slowly and just got too far back here last start. Prior to that he was sound behind Iseered Iseered. Senior jockey goes on but if he jumps slow from barrier 1 again, it will make things difficult.

(8) Differentiator comes into this first up with no trial, and she did perform well fresh last prep so watch the market.

Tip: (7) Playing Red $4.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Playing Red

Race 6 Byron Bay Premium Lager (C1) (1800m) 6:25pm (AEDT)
1. Blackwater Bay (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: A G Durrant	2	2	2.05	2	2.1	1.9
2. Admired (1) J: Jason Whiting (59kg) T: G A Crispin
3. Miss Maranta (10) J: Jett Stanley (58.5kg) T: Vaughn Sigley	17	17	17	16	17.6	16
4. Completed (3) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: J G Pike	26	26	21	26	25.5	26
5. Darcele (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Greg Cave	51	51	51	41	49	41
6. Street Fair (4) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: Brett Pope	3.8	4	3.9	4	3.75	3.8
7. Fire Goddess (6) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56.5kg) T: R N Harvey Jnr	12	12	12	12	11.8	12
8. Sunset Cruise (8) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56.5kg) T: S J Miller	21	20	20	17	18.4	19
9. Zip Zam Zoom (5) J: Troy Turner (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley	7	7	6.5	7	6.7	6.5
10. Hard Too Cee (2) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: Matthew Scott	61	67	67	61	65	71

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 6:27pm (AEDT)

Surely, surely this is (1) Blackwater Bay‘s race to lose. He was very good first up in defeat, though that won’t help those that took $2.50 for him to win. He was caught wide, Pike elected to roll forward to take up the lead at the 1000m, he kicked into the straight and was swamped inside the final 50m or so. He was narrowly beaten second up last prep but he should come on from that fresh run over 1800m and with even luck, he looks the winner.

Tip: (1) Blackwater Bay $1.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Blackwater Bay

Race 7 Seacorp (0Mwly) (1600m) 7:05pm (AEDT)
1. Cuban Twist (6) J: Brad Parnham (59kg) T: D M Luciani
2. My Greek Boy (1) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58.5kg) T: S J Wolfe	4.2	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.35	4.2
3. Trade Thunder (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson	5.5	6	5.5	5.5	5.4	5
4. Rivalry Galore (8) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: Brett Pope	18	17	17	16	16.6	16
5. Pearls From Heaven (7) J: Peter Knuckey (56.5kg) T: C H Webster	8	8	7.5	8.5	8.4	7
6. Celtic Diva (10) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: A D Mathews	15	14	16	16	14	14
7. Chasing Chaos (3) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: S J Wolfe	5.5	5	6	6	6	6
8. Heart Of Coeur (4) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: Steven Burton	7	7	7	6.5	7	7
9. Lucky Heart (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55.5kg) T: Tracey Diederich	5.5	6	6	5.5	5.4	5.5
10. Hezapro (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: M Santich	251	151	201	101	191	151

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 7:07pm (AEDT)

This is the easiest race (2) My Greek Boy will have lined up in for a long time. He drops back to a No Metro Wins race, having done most of his racing the past few years in 66, 72+, 78+ and even Listed company. He’s also very well suited at the weights. Whether he is going well enough is the issue, but he certainly gets his chance to bounce back to the winners’ stall today.

(5) Pearls From Heaven resumed with a good effort first up over 1500m. She could be looking for further than 1600m but she strikes a winnable race.

(7) Chasing Chaos should be right up on speed. He’s knocking on the door fr another win but the 1600m might just see him out late.

Tip: (2) My Greek Boy $6.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (5) Pearls From Heaven $6.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN My Greek Boy, 0.5 units WIN Pearls From Heaven