Warrnambool Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 5th

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 11:23am (AEDT)

(1) Almsgiver has been well backed early for its debut run. It’s jumped out well, should get through heavy ground on breeding and has found a suitable race.

 

(3) Cotton Eye Joe is having his first run in Australia. Has run okay on heavy tracks back in NZ and has jumped out solidly. Draws well and trained here.

 

(6) Tintinwin’s last two runs of its prep were solid, and it can continue to improve.

 

Not a whole lot would shock here. Very tricky and I’m happy to forego the early start.

Tip: (1) Almsgiver- $2.70 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 11:52am (AEDT)

(11) Typhoon Moon looks perfectly suited stepping up to 1700m 3^rd up. Both runs this prep have been good, the first over 1400m when getting back in a dash home which clearly didn’t suit, and he was again good over 1500m last start. Draws beautifully here and looks a leading chance.

 

(6) Sly Corner beat Typhoon Moon home first up over 1400m but did have a much better run-on speed. He started $1.95 at Pakenham last start but pulled up lame when finishing 2^nd. Draws wide which can be tricky at the 1700m start but if he gets across he should be in the finish.

 

(9) Volatile Stock drops back in trip and will be rock hard fit. Is adaptable and should land close from barrier 1.

 

(8) Spirit De Lune will appreciate a longer trip and wetter track.

 

Tip: (11) Typhoon Moon- $4.45 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Typhoon Moon

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

(3) High Ferocity has been around the mark all prep without winning. He’s clearly looking for further and up to 1700m suits. He’ll be the fittest horse in the race and maps beautifully from barrier 4.

 

(10) County Hall comes out of a strong maiden behind French Moon, who has since run well at Flemington. He got back there and got a lovely passage through the inside, but he draws barrier 12 here and likely gets back again.

 

(2) Grabowski is another that looks suited up in trip for the airborne Maher/Eustace stable.

 

(8) Themagicneverends was solid first up on speed at Terang. Gets a huge jockey change with Olly replacing Lucinda Boyd and has run well on wet ground. His 2^nd to Art Heiress on a heavy 9 this time last year reads well.

 

Tip: (3) High Ferocity- $3.60 at Sportsbet

Saver: (8) Themagicneverends- $5.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN High Ferocity, 0.5 units Themagicneverends

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

I thought (10) American In Paris should be closer to favourite here. Been going well over the hurdles and now switches to a steeplechase, but he loves wet ground, races well here and gets in with 66kg.

 

(4) Riding High is that favourite and is 50% over the hurdles, although is coming off a disappointing effort at Pakenham when $3.40. Trialled behind American In Paris since and can bounce back.

 

(5) Longclaw has run 3^rd in two steeple trials and Kuru takes the ride with 68kg. The trials have been good, jumping well and not asked for an effort behind Cheners and Rexmont.

 

Stablemate (2) Michelin loves wet ground and if it’s a slog it should figure.

 

Tip: (10) American In Paris- $4.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Longclaw- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN American In Paris, 0.25 units WIN Longclaw

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

Gee this is tough. I was keen on (5) Mckeever on day 1 in a deeper race, but he’s come up around $2.60 here and this is back to 1000m which I have some query on. The debut win was very good and the form has been nicely franked through King Dick.

 

(6) Continuance comes here first up after a two run Victorian prep. First up she hit the rail at The Valley and basically went backwards from there, and she was okay without being anything special behind Humzz and The Billionaire at Ballarat. Olly takes the ride from barrier 1 which should see her land in the box seat.

 

(3) Cataracta is an interesting runner. He goes very well first up and on wet ground, although may be better over 1100/1200m and this is a bit harder than what he faced last prep.

 

(2) Reward With Return is very consistent and will run well again.

 

Tip: (6) Continuance- $4.85 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

The jumps feature of the day. I think there’s only two proper winning chances. (1) Instigator is coming off a dominant Pakenham hurdle win, doing it easily by 7L. He’s never missed a top two spot over the jumps and we’ve seen how good he is when on his game. He destroyed the favourite, Saunter Boy, by 16L when they met and they started around the prices they are now.

 

(6) Saunter Boy started $1.50 on the same night at Pakenham and drove away late for a very stylish win. He keeps improving and has the best flat form in the race, coming off a 3^rd to Fanciful Toff at Bendigo. He’s got 16L to make up on Instigator so it’s hard to back him as favourite but I can see the appeal for Pateman and Maher/Eustace.

 

(8) Robbie’s Star started $3.40 against Instigator last start but was no match whatsoever.

 

(3) Britannicus ran 2^nd to Brierly winner Flying Agent last start at Hamilton.

 

Tip: (1) Instigator- $4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Instigator

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Very open. (3) National Guard probably opened the wrong price, coming off two nice enough wins in easier grade. Draws inside here which will be interesting.

 

(7) Facemask is racing well and likes soft ground, but will have to get a long way back from the carpark draw which is enough to put me off.

 

(14) Sarodec loves heavy tracks and has some form last prep that would make him competitive here, but his first up run in particular was awful.

 

Found this very tough. National Guard deserves to be favourite but gets a different set up here and is creeping up in the weights.

 

Tip: (3) National Guard- $4.40 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

One of the carnival’s features is the Wangoom Handicap over 1200m. I think (4) Great Again is the horse to beat and a reasonable price. He’s first up off a long break after nearly dying due to a spider bite, but Lindsey has targeted him at this race and he’s won 3 from 7 first up. He’s also got a remarkable stat of running in the quinella in 11 of 12 starts on rain affected ground, the only miss when wide and lame. His runs in the Bletchingly and Aurie’s Star are good enough to win this.

 

There are a couple of roughies that can run well. (9) Just Hifalutin could be absolutely gone, but the staggering stat of 4/4 when 2^nd up and 3/4 on wet ground is enough to pique my interest at $51. The first up run was average but that was over 1000m and she’s with the Wilde camp now who would’ve set her for this 2^nd up.

 

(13) Epic Grey is another L Smith trained horse and again the 2^nd up record is fantastic, with 4 wins from 5 starts. I’ve always regarded him as more of a 1000m horse but he’s run top 2 in 5 of 6 starts at 1200m. I think he’ll drift so take BSP late.

 

(14) Simply Optimistic looks set to peak here 3^rd up. Both runs this prep have been good, the latest behind Missile Mantra which is solid form. Won easily 3^rd up last prep and his 1200m soft record is excellent.

 

Stacks of other chances but those are the four that interest me.

Tip: (4) Great Again- $5.00 at Sportsbetting

Also Backing: (14) Simply Optimistic- $15.00 at Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Just Hifalutin- $51.00 at TAB & (13) Epic Grey- $65.00 at Betfair

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Great Again, 0.25 units WIN Simply Optimistic, 0.25 units WIN Just Hifalutin, 0.25 units WIN Epic Grey

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

Very open race with a big field and plenty of different formlines. I thought (12) Sir Davy could step up. His debut run last prep turned out to be in a strong form race, beaten by Trodaire into 2^nd, with Black Penn in 3^rd and Prince Romnay in 6^th. He resumed with an easy win as the $1.55 favourite and Allen sticks with him. Can roll forward and settle just off the speed and wouldn’t shock.

 

(8) Tadashi Hamada missed the start first up which cost him the race. The win last prep over Deepstrike reads fairly well but barrier 3 could be sticky if he’s slowly away again.

 

(15) Sovereign Gold won nicely on debut on a soft track at Terang and maps for a similar run again from barrier 2.

 

I’d rather be with the stablemate (5) Irish Rockstar who gets Bates on board. He led all the way to win with ease on debut last prep and was a bit green 2^nd up behind Faretti but kept battling for a 2.8L 5^th. That form looks strong for this and he’s drawn nicely in barrier 5.

Tip: (12) Sir Davy- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Irish Rockstar- $13.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Sir Davy, 0.25 units WIN Irish Rockstar

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Saved my best bet of the day until last because I’m quite keen on (5) Nikau Spur who was ultra-impressive at Pakenham first up in a class 1. He ended up last on the rail and was searching for runs but once he slid through the gap he exploded to win by 3.8L under hands and heels. He bolted in with his maiden 2^nd up last prep, his win first up was on a soft 7 and I think he’s a very progressive horse. I’d be taking the $2.50 now, I think he starts closer to even money.

 

(1) Corner Pocket looks the only danger. He was a good winner first up at Ballarat over 1200m and comes here on the quick backup for L Smith. I thought he had every favour there on a biased track but did beat Chief Altony which ties in Nikau Spur’s run at Flemington last prep.

 

(2) Vardani is the unknown first up in Australia. Tricky to assess the French form but he’d have to be pretty good to beat Nikau Spur.

Tip: (5) Nikau Spur- $2.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Nikau Spur