Warrnambool Racing Tips: Thursday, May 6th

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 11:17am (AEDT)

(4) Valac will be very hard to beat in the opener and the market reflects that. He was $2.20 favourite on his hurdle debut and easily accounted for American In Paris who was well backed and should’ve gone close on day 2.

 

(3) Eckhart gets back over the jumps and looks the clear danger. He bolted in at his first go and then ran into Flying Agent and ran 2^nd.

 

Race does look to end there and the prices look about right. If we got $2 Valac I’d bet.

 

Tip: (4) Valac- $1.85 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 11:47am (AEDT)

(9) Under The Dunes was too strong for Salamanders who has since come out and won by 2L. Tricky race with so many on debut likely set for this.

 

(11) Prophet’s Choice has jumped out well for the Chow team and draws nicely in barrier 3 with Thornton on.

 

(4) Royal Fox should’ve finished closer on debut at Terang and can improve up to 1200m.

 

(7) Fight On Shades started $4.20 in the Terang race and did a bit wrong, pulling up with a slow recovery.

 

Tip: (9) Under The Dunes- $2.20 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 12:17pm (AEDT)

(2) Ocular will be hard to beat. Barrier one isn’t ideal but he should’ve won first up with 63kg at Cranbourne over 1000m, getting badly held up behind Galenus. He’s better suited at 1100m and is better than bm78 grade. With even luck from the inside he should settle just off speed and be too good.

 

(10) Double Bubble has an excellent first up and soft track record. Comes to the L Smith stable, gets Olly on and will settle on speed.

 

(1) Humzz is racing well and the narrow 3^rd to Inn Keeper certainly reads well after that horse won the Wangoom.

Tip: (2) Ocular- $2.55 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Ocular

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 12:47pm (AEDT)

(1) I Am Eloquent is racing well and drops in grade. She loves wet ground and should go forward from the barrier.

 

(7) Witchfulthinking looks the leader and should do so on her own. A wet track is some concern but on speed has been the place to be all carnival.

 

(4) La Chevalee is first up off a long break. Her best form is easily good enough to win this and she loves wet tracks.

 

(10) Diaquin was good first up and should improve up in trip. She’ll likely get back in the field which could make things tough.

 

Hoping the track has dried out a bit more which should help Witchfulthinking.

Tip: (7) Witchfulthinking- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Witchfulthinking

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 1:17pm (AEDT)

(14) Poppy Joan on top in a tough 2000m contest. All three career runs have been good, the first behind Mystery Island on debut, who looks a handy stayer and won by 5.2L in a 2700m contest last start. She relished the wet ground to win easily 2^nd up over a subsequent winner and was solid last start on a good track behind the above average Prince Romany. Back onto a softer track she can go forward and be there a long time.

 

(13) She’s A Karaka ran on well first up and will appreciate getting up in trip. Her 3^rd to Mainland and Bet Red, ahead of Doroza and Coin Collector is solid form. She’s drawn the carpark but can be included at double figures.

 

(12) Lion’s Share was good first up behind subsequent Oaks winner Media Award. She won 2^nd up last prep on a heavy track and maps for a nice run.

 

(15) Sacred Goddess is in good form and maps well.

Tip: (14) Poppy Joan- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (13) She’s A Karaka- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Poppy Joan, 0.25 units WIN She’s A Karaka

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 1:52pm (AEDT)

(1) Dogmatic doesn’t win out of turn but the run behind Indispensable and Zayydani last start reads well for this. 3^rd up last prep he was only 2.1L off Skyman and Cadre Du Noir which is very good form for a bm70. There isn’t a stack of pace here and if Richards can be positive early, as the horse has been in the past, he can run a big race.

 

(7) Tooradin is the horse to beat. He was wearing very thin last prep but clearly has the talent and was a strong winner leading all the way first up. Has more upside than these and will be fitter.

 

(4) Royal Performance looks ready to run a big race 3^rd up, drawn barrier 1. A wet track is some issue with him but Olly takes the ride which suggests the horse is ready to peak.

 

(10) Pres De Toi is a handy horse and never runs well first up. She should improve here but a soft track is also an issue with her.

 

Tip: (1) Dogmatic- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dogmatic

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 2:32pm (AEDT)

The gruelling 5500m of the Grand Annual steeplechase and I’m with (5) Yensir who is coming off a strong 3200m win at Oakbank over Zed Em. They went toe to toe there and Yensir proved too strong with 1.5kg less. He’s won up to 4150m so I can’t see the marathon trip posing an issue, and he meets Zed Em 3kg better.

 

(1) Zed Em is a warrior and won this race two years ago. Has to carry 71kg and I’m not sure if he’s going quite as well as he can. Will have been set only for this race and it’s hard to discount such a champion.

 

(3) Gold Medals ran 2^nd to Ablaze in this race last year. He’s been smashed on the flat recently, even more so than usual, but he’ll run the trip and jump well as usual.

 

Astounding to see Shane Jackson come out of retirement to ride (2) Bit Of A Lad after battling very well in the Brierly on Tuesday against Flying Agent with the big weight. His two attempts at the race have been a 15.5L 4^th and a 7.2L 4^th.

 

Tip: (5) Yensir- $3.70 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Yensir

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

The comeback hero (6) Fighting Harada is the horse to beat again. His only run on a soft track was an easy maiden win but he is 6 weeks between runs here and is near even money.

 

(11) Kazio looks the value in the race. He’s a number that always runs well and rarely wins, but 1400m is his ideal distance, having run top three in 14 of 17 starts, and his 2^nd up record is also strong. I liked his run at Terang first up when getting back and coming wide, which was very difficult to do on the day. Inn Keeper snuck up along the fence to win that and has franked the form nicely. Gets in with 54kg and at $26 he’s a good chance.

 

(9) Mr Tipla has been racing well at both starts this prep and does love wet ground. Gets in with 52kg after the claim and should run well again.

 

(7) Indispensable is racing very well, dropping back to 1400m here.

Tip: (11) Kazio- $26.00/5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75u E/W Kazio

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

Tricky version of the Cup. The Terang Cup is generally a good lead up and the horse to follow out of that race was clearly (12) Heart Of Puissance who was given a … quiet ride. He was taken to last and never really put into the race on a leader’s track, running on strongly to be beaten a length. The win prior in Sydney was very good and he did start $1.70 in that race and $3.80 here. Should be more intent from barrier 1 and with even luck I think he’ll win.

 

(5) Wentwood won that race and meets Heart Of Puissance 5.5kg better at the weights. Had every favour last start to offset that but is hard to knock.

 

(1) Le Don De Vie was strongly backed but weakened in the Easter Cup behind Hang Man and Persan. A softer track should help and despite the 58.5kg he’ll roll forward and be in it a long way.

 

(3) Gallic Chieftan flies 3^rd up and with blinkers on. Not sure he’s going as well as past preps but this is his pattern.

Tip: (12) Heart Of Puissance- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Heart Of Puissance

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

(2) O’reilly Mcluke can end the Wilde carnival on a high. He was awful as favourite last start and Mertens suggested he was at the end of his prep, but Wilde must think he’s bounced out of it fine to send him here. He won very stylishly here over 1200m on a heavy track three back in a fairly strong bm64. He maps nicely and wouldn’t shock.

 

(4) Over The Sky is the best horse in the race- his run in the Silver Bowl final at Flemington was very good but 1300m is as short as he wants it and he’ll likely get back to last from barrier 15. If he’s going to win it’ll be very late and he will need the right race shape.

 

(10) Rose Of Sebring likes heavy tracks and just got too far back last start. She should appreciate the 1300m and did start odds on there.

 

(11) Yarra Boy won well on debut and was okay as favourite at Bendigo. He’s fresh for this and Olly sticks.

Tip: (2) O’reilly Mcluke- $17.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W O’reilly Mcluke