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Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 5th

Hong Kong racing continues at Happy Valley on Wednesday evening and Tim Geers has five bets on the card below.

Happy Valley Racing Tips

Hong Kong racing continues with racing on the city circuit on Wednesday evening, with a nine-race card at Happy Valley.

Tonight’s meeting is on the A-course (rail true), with the first race set to jump at 6.45pm local time.

Tim Geers has done the form and highlighted his best bets on the program below. He’s betting in Race 1, Race 3, Race 4, Race 5 and Race 7.

Best Bet: Race 5 – (5) Exuberant

BlueBet

0

Race 1

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
8:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
8:45pm (AEDT)

1. Colonel (12) J: C Schofield (60.5kg) T: P Yiu
1816161615.6
2. Booming Well (3) J: M Chadwick (56.5kg) T: C H Yip
11119.51210.8
3. Immense Hedge (1) J: J Moreira (56.5kg) T: J J Size
8.58.5998.5
4. Little Bird (4) J: H Lai (56.5kg) T: K L Man
1111121210.6
5. Happy Profit (7) J: Z Purton (56kg) T: C S Shum
4.84.64.84.84.55
6. Master Albert (5) J: A Hamelin (56kg) T: W Y So
1918161616
7. Takingufurther (8) J: M Yeung (55.5kg) T: K H Ting
2121191920
8. Zelus (9) J: H Wong (55.5kg) T: C W Chang
10110110110189
9. Casa Kingdom (6) J: B Shinn (55kg) T: D A Hayes
1211121310.6
10. Oriental Amigo (11) J: K Teetan (55kg) T: Y S Tsui
1112101011.6
11. Noble Desire (10) J: M Poon (52.5kg) T: D Whyte
4.85.56.56.55.4
12. E Honey (2) J: A Badel (52kg) T: C Fownes
66665.7

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 8:47pm (AEDT)

Keen on two runners to kick off the night here. (5) Happy Profit was beaten a neck here two starts ago over the same course and distance. He was then caught wide without cover throughout the entire race last start, and also pulled up with a substantial amount of mucus post-race. Both of those factors combined are enough to forgive his poor showing. He’s had 10 weeks between runs and has trialled well leading in, so with Purton choosing to stick with him, I’ll give him another chance.

(2) Booming Well finished midfield here on debut, which was a good effort as he made a mess of the start. He came from last to run 6th, and recorded the second-fastest final 400m in the process. You’d think he would learn plenty from that and if he jumps with them tonight, he could run a good race at double figure odds. Notably, Zac Purton trialled this horse recently but is committed to Happy Profit here.

(3) Immense Hedge was OK on debut over track and distance. He drew awkwardly that night but he comes up with barrier 1 tonight and Joao Moreira jumps on, so expect some improvement there.

(6) Master Albert has been well beaten in his past two starts, but he’s drawn barrier 12 in both of them. Better drawn tonight, and he did run 3rd three starts ago from a similar draw.

Tip: (5) Happy Profit $4.60 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Booming Well $13 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Happy Profit, 0.5 units WIN Booming Well

0

Race 2

Kowloon City Hcp (C3) (1650m)
9:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Kowloon City Hcp (C3) (1650m)
9:15pm (AEDT)

1. Royal Bomb (3) J: J Moreira (60.5kg) T: C Fownes
6.555.55.55.3
2. Sunny Star (2) J: A Badel (58.5kg) T: K W Lui
3.73.73.83.83.55
3. Telecom Fighters (5) J: C Ho (56kg) T: Y S Tsui
4.856.56.55.7
4. Smiling City (9) J: C Chau (55.5kg) T: D Whyte
1211111111
5. Smoothies (4) J: Z Purton (55kg) T: C S Shum
443.93.93.95
6. Surrealism (8) J: T Piccone (54kg) T: D Ferraris
1616212116.2
7. Fearless Fire (1) J: M Poon (53.5kg) T: D A Hayes
1815151514.4
8. Gallant Crown (6) J: K Teetan (52.5kg) T: A T Millard
99998.9
9. Eternal Beauty (7) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: A S Cruz
10110115115195

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 9:17pm (AEDT)

0

Race 3

Ma Tau Kok Hcp (C4) (1000m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Ma Tau Kok Hcp (C4) (1000m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

1. Harmony Fire (1) J: C Chau (60.5kg) T: D Whyte
1.952.05221.96
2. Circuit Seven (2) J: K Teetan (60kg) T: A S Cruz
1617171816.4
3. Super Commander (11) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: D Ferraris
2018191918.8
4. Power Profit (4) J: A Hamelin (56.5kg) T: C S Shum
6771818167
5. Sugamo (9) J: J Moreira (56.5kg) T: C Fownes
5.555.55.55.2
6. Give Way Please (8) J: K Leung (56kg) T: D A Hayes
9788.58.1
7. Everyone's Victory (10) J: A Badel (55kg) T: F C Lor
3431343433
8. Happy Time (12) J: C Ho (55kg) T: W Y So
2321212120.5
9. Happy Gathering (6) J: M Chadwick (54.5kg) T: K L Man
1212131311.6
10. Very Sweet Orange (3) J: C Wong (54.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
1111111110.8
11. Precious Sweetie (5) J: M Yeung (51.5kg) T: L Ho
6161717153
12. Bond A Star (7) J: H Wong (51.5kg) T: C H Yip
10110110110197

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 9:47pm (AEDT)

Looks a very nice race for (1) Harmony Fire who comes up with barrier 1 over the 1000m tonight, which is a big advantage. He drew barrier 10 last start and was only beaten 2.3L, and was close up in 3rd the start prior. Vincent Ho is replaced by the apprentice tonight, so he gets in with a similar weight to what he carried to victory three starts back. The inside draw is the key here and with even luck, he’s the one to beat.

(5) Sugamo was OK on debut and you always have to respect Fownes/Moreira runners, especially at Happy Valley.

 

Tip: (1) Harmony Fire $2.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Harmony Fire

0

Race 4

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

1. Whiskey Neat (1) J: K Chan (60kg) T: C Fownes
4.24.24.24.24.2
2. Poised To Strike (12) J: B Shinn (59kg) T: D A Hayes
2326262623
3. Ambitious Heart (7) J: C Chau (57.5kg) T: D Ferraris
9.510999.3
4. Peak To Peak (11) J: J Moreira (57.5kg) T: F C Lor
6.577.57.56.7
5. Bullish Brother (9) J: M Yeung (57kg) T: A S Cruz
7171717165
6. Inno Legend (6) J: K Leung (56.5kg) T: K L Man
7.57776.8
7. Win Tech (2) J: V Borges (56kg) T: P D O'sullivan
6167616157
8. Stormtrouper (10) J: M Chadwick (55.5kg) T: C H Yip
7181818171
9. Melbourne Hall (4) J: A Hamelin (55kg) T: D J Hall
1212131212
10. Moonluck (8) J: Z Purton (55kg) T: K W Lui
7777.56.5
11. Raging Blaze (5) J: C Schofield (55kg) T: J J Size
5161717157
12. Fortune Hero (3) J: K Teetan (51.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
3.94.2443.9

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 10:17pm (AEDT)

Backing a couple at decent prices here in a competitive race.

(6) Inno legend ran 2nd here two starts ago and featured heavily in the stewards’ report last start. He drew barrier 1 on that occasion and was held up basically the entire straight on the rail. By the time he got clear the race was all over. He’s gone close here a couple of times before and from the midfield draw tonight, he should get a bit more luck than he did last start. He can break his duck tonight and the $7.50 looks a decent price.

(10) Moonluck has placed in his past two starts over track and distance. There’s been no real excuses for him in either of those but he gets Zac Purton on board for the first time tonight, replacing Vincent Ho. Purton has a 26% strike rate for this stable and rides the Valley better than anyone else. Think he’s a great chance here and $6.00 is also a good price.

Tip: (10) Moonluck $6.00 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (6) Inno Legend $7.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Moonluck, 0.75 units WIN Inno Legend

0

Race 5

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Ma Tau Wai Hcp (C4) (1200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

1. Showina (9) J: B Shinn (60.5kg) T: D A Hayes
8.58.58.58.58.1
2. Take What You Need (3) J: C Chau (60.5kg) T: D Whyte
5.55.55.55.55.5
3. Shining On (11) J: C Ho (59.5kg) T: K W Lui
3541313134
4. Aca Power (7) J: H Wong (58kg) T: Y S Tsui
8191919177
5. Exuberant (1) J: Z Purton (58kg) T: C S Shum
3.43.53.73.63.3
6. Vigor Champ (2) J: K Teetan (57.5kg) T: P Yiu
4.8555.54.6
7. Winning Delago (5) J: C Schofield (57.5kg) T: K H Ting
66.565.56
8. Won Ball (4) J: K Leung (56kg) T: P D O'sullivan
1616181815.6
9. Steel Win (8) J: A Hamelin (55kg) T: C W Chang
1617161616.6
10. Day Day Rich (10) J: R Maia (54.5kg) T: T P Yung
819110110181
11. Demons Rock (6) J: M Poon (54.5kg) T: D J Hall
6767616157
12. Champion Pride (12) J: V Borges (52kg) T: D Ferraris
1717161617.4

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 10:42pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on this race. There’s a few near the top of betting which I think have a few key negatives against them. Showina draws awkwardly and cops a 4kg rise in the weights from last start; the jury is out on Take What You Need; and Vigor Champ goes up 4kg from the last start win.

(5) Exuberant was a big run in defeat two starts ago when he ran 3rd over this track and distance. He then drew barrier 11 last start and sat three-wide the trip. Big jockey change tonight with Purton going on and he draws barrier 1, the best draw he’s had in his three career starts. Pretty confident he goes very close with any luck from the draw and the $3.80 is more than acceptable.

(7) Winning Delago is the other horse in the race I’ll be backing. Chad Schofield has previously been riding Exuberant but he sticks with Winning Delago tonight, who he has ridden in two recent trials. It’s hard to win on debut at Happy Valley, but he finds a nice race and comes up with a good draw in barrier 5. $7.50 is acceptable.

Tip: (5) Exuberant $3.80 Bet365

Also Backing: (7) Winning Delago $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Exuberant, 0.5 units WIN Winning Delago

0

Race 6

To Kwa Wan Hcp (C4) (1650m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

Race 6

To Kwa Wan Hcp (C4) (1650m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

1. Regency Master (9) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: C S Shum
77.56.56.56.9
2. Dream Warriors (10) J: M Chadwick (60kg) T: A S Cruz
1211111110.6
3. Total Power (5) J: C Chau (60kg) T: D J Hall
10109.59.59.6
4. Jolly Honour (1) J: A Badel (59.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
98.5998.4
5. Royal Racer (3) J: J Moreira (58.5kg) T: C Fownes
4.24.24.44.44
6. Bulletproof (12) J: R Maia (57.5kg) T: P Yiu
101010109.7
7. Rainbow Light (6) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: D Whyte
4.64.8554.5
8. Superb Daddy (8) J: K Leung (56kg) T: D Ferraris
7.57.5887.1
9. Victorious Seeker (7) J: H Bentley (56kg) T: P D O'sullivan
8181818175
10. Stay Chill (11) J: C Ho (55.5kg) T: W Y So
6767676165
11. Super Hong Kong (2) J: M Poon (53.5kg) T: A T Millard
1414141213.4
12. Light My Day (4) J: H Wong (52.5kg) T: C H Yip
5161616155

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 11:17pm (AEDT)

0

Race 7

Hung Hom Bay Hcp (C3) (1200m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Hung Hom Bay Hcp (C3) (1200m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

1. Stanley Park (3) J: B Shinn (60.5kg) T: D Ferraris
97998.6
2. Dancing Fighter (5) J: J Moreira (60kg) T: C Fownes
666.565.9
3. Mclucky (2) J: C Chau (59kg) T: D Whyte
3.53.53.43.43.4
4. Stock Legend (1) J: Z Purton (59kg) T: K W Lui
4.24.24.24.24.05
5. Harmony N Home (4) J: K Teetan (57.5kg) T: C S Shum
2020191919.6
6. Kai Xin Dragon (11) J: C Schofield (56.5kg) T: D A Hayes
1515161615
7. Ping Hai Galaxy (9) J: A Hamelin (56kg) T: J J Size
1616141415.6
8. Strive For Glory (10) J: C Ho (54.5kg) T: F C Lor
5151616149
9. Wood On Fire (7) J: K Leung (54.5kg) T: L Ho
1818191917.6
10. Island Shine (8) J: M Poon (53.5kg) T: P Yiu
98888
11. Forte (6) J: M Chadwick (53kg) T: C Fownes
1313131312.4

Odds Last Updated: May 5, 2021, 11:47pm (AEDT)

On his best form, (2) Dancing Fighter would win this. He showed plenty of talent early days but has been plagued with issues in recent seasons. He had a suspensory injury leading into last prep – he raced just once at Sha Tin before going for another spell, so clearly he hadn’t come back 100%. He resumes again tonight with a promising trial under the belt, and the horse he beat in that trial then came out and won on debut last weekend. Moreira takes the ride for Casper Fownes and vacates the seat on Stock Legend to do so, which is a horse he’s ridden to victory three times this season. The $4.60 is an acceptable price to find out where this horse is at.

 (4) Stock Legend gets Purton on board with Moreira choosing to go with Dancing Fighter. He gets the added benefit of barrier 1. He’s building a terrific record here over this track and distance, with four wins from seven starts. My query is whether the handicapper has hold of him now. He had every favour last start and only got up late by a narrow margin, and he cops an extra 4kg in the weights tonight.

Tip: (2) Dancing Fighter $4.60 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dancing Fighter

0

Race 8

Hung Hom Bay Hcp (C3) (1200m)
12:15am (AEDT)

Race 8

Hung Hom Bay Hcp (C3) (1200m)
12:15am (AEDT)

1. Capital Star (12) J: K Chan (60.5kg) T: C Fownes
10119.59.510.6
2. Kinda Cool (4) J: Z Purton (59kg) T: F C Lor
77776.5
3. Wine And Wine (9) J: R Maia (57.5kg) T: T P Yung
3134343433
4. Beauty Amigo (11) J: M Poon (56.5kg) T: K L Man
9110110110175
5. Special M (6) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: J J Size
1112121210.8
6. Harmony N Blessed (10) J: B Shinn (56kg) T: D A Hayes
4.64.64.44.44.55
7. Majestic Star (1) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: P Yiu
3.13.23.63.53
8. Transcendent (8) J: M Chadwick (55kg) T: A S Cruz
77776.7
9. Casimiro (5) J: K Leung (54.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan
6161616155
10. Fighting Star (7) J: A Badel (54.5kg) T: D Whyte
109.5998.5
11. Happy Good Guys (3) J: H Wong (52.5kg) T: P Yiu
6167717161
12. Winston's Lad (2) J: M Yeung (52.5kg) T: K W Lui
6161616157

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 1:57am (AEDT)

0

Race 9

Hok Yuen Hcp (C2) (1200m)
12:50am (AEDT)

Race 9

Hok Yuen Hcp (C2) (1200m)
12:50am (AEDT)

1. Will Power (12) J: C Chau (60.5kg) T: D Whyte
1415151415
2. California Rad (10) J: M Chadwick (59kg) T: A S Cruz
101111119.7
3. Shining Gem (1) J: H Bentley (57kg) T: P Yiu
111110109.8
4. Silver Fig (2) J: A Hamelin (56kg) T: A T Millard
3141414127
5. Handsome Bo Bo (3) J: A Badel (55.5kg) T: C S Shum
3.33.43.53.53.25
6. Wind N Grass (11) J: K Teetan (55kg) T: J J Size
1414141413.8
7. Lobo's Legend (5) J: K Leung (53.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan
1817171715.8
8. Guy Dragon (9) J: J Moreira (53kg) T: C Fownes
88887
9. Hong Kong Bet (8) J: C Schofield (53kg) T: K H Ting
1816151717
10. Igniting (4) J: M Poon (52.5kg) T: K W Lui
4.64.64.84.84.65
11. Snap Fit (7) J: C Ho (52.5kg) T: C Fownes
1920181815.8
12. Invincible Missile (6) J: H Lai (51.5kg) T: W Y So
4651515139

Odds Last Updated: May 6, 2021, 1:57am (AEDT)

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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