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Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 10th

Tim Geers previews the eight-race card at Ascot in WA on Wednesday afternoon.

ascot-racecourse

WA racing continues at Ascot today with an eight-race card on the agenda.

After a huge downpour of rain on Monday, the track has come up a Soft 5 for today’s meeting, and the rail is out 15m with a cutaway in the straight.

There looks to be some value throughout the day and Tim Geers has offered his thoughts on every race below.

Scroll down to find our Ascot racing tips for Wednesday’s meeting.

TAB Play Central

202257

Race 1

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1200m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Tabtouch Better Your Bet Mdn (1200m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Great Fortune (5) J: William Pike (57kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
2.82.92.92.952.9
2. Master Buddha (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: Joshua Mcleod
126151151131151
3. Ciscojoe (10) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: B A Miller
4.44.44.43.954.4
4. Without Reg (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: Rhys Radford
6.5666.66
5. Never Sober (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (57kg) T: A W Maley
20191920.519
6. Magical Gem (9) J: Ryan Hill (57kg) T: V A Brockman
17171814.218
7. Devil Girl (6) J: Steven Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
13121213.212
8. New Prediction (1) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: B W Owen
6771714971
9. Seduce Me (7) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: Simon Miller
4.44.44.44.24.4
10. Solder (2) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: A G Durrant
1010118.711

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 4:24pm (AEDT)

It’s always ominous when William Pike rides for Brock Lewthwaite and they team up today with (1) Great Fortune here, who resumes first up with no public trial. Everything about this set up rings alarm bells. He was beaten 0.4L on debut back in June and it looks like they’ve got him set to win fresh today.

(3) Ciscojoe has been sound in his first two career starts. Likely to get back from barrier 10 but should be competitive.

(1) Solder and (9) Seduce Me are debutants from two powerful stables; watch the market and keep safe.

Tip: (1) Great Fortune $2.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Great Fortune

202257

Race 2

Glenroy Chaff Mdn (1500m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Glenroy Chaff Mdn (1500m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

1. Thehuntsmen (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: Ms S L Miller
1413131113
2. Freedomofthepress (3) J: Mitchell Pateman (58kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
19181815.218
3. Roch Legacy (4) J: William Pike (58kg) T: D & B Pearce
4.64.54.44.24.4
4. Dannemora (10) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Ms J Clements
101010910
5. Art Warrior (11) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
3.83.944.054
6. Bulls Eye Perfect (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58kg) T: Kirsten Melis
10110110175101
7. Riding Hood Fame (5) J: Ms Lisa Staples (56kg) T: Bill Spencer
12121212.212
8. Allegiance (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
11101011.210
9. Galactic Storm (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
3.63.73.83.853.8
10. Paigey's Turn (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms S L Miller
12121210.212
11. Raging Beauty (6) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: P H Jordan
4141413741

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 4:59pm (AEDT)

(9) Galactic Storm went to Geraldton for his debut and although he didn’t win, he put in a decent enough showing to suggest he’ll be hard to beat today. He ran the second-fastest final 400m of the meeting. Gets a big jockey change today with Clint Johnston-Porter taking over from apprentice Victoria Corver and draws the inside gate.

(4) Dannemora is getting better with each run and will be suited by the step up in distance today. Likely to go back from the wide gate but will be hitting the line.

(7) Riding Hood Fame continues to run well and be in the finish, but remains a 40-start maiden.

(3) Roch Legacy was heavily backed first up and did nothing. Pike goes on today and no surprise to see a form turnaround.

(10) Paigey’s Turn next best.

Tip: (9) Galactic Storm $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Galactic Storm

202257

Race 3

Cool Ridge Hcp (C1) (1100m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Cool Ridge Hcp (C1) (1100m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

1. Cross Statement (2) J: Ms Holly Watson (61kg) T: J P Taylor
3.33.33.23.33.2
2. Rain God (4) J: Ms Victoria Corver (61kg) T: A G Durrant
1110101110
3. Hell Raider (8) J: Jason Whiting (60kg) T: G C Ballantyne
4141413041
4. Strike (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi
9.59.59.58.39.5
5. Paeroa Lad (3) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: M W Bairstow
17161614.416
6. Ambergate Rose (6) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: P E Roberts
98.589.18
7. Let's Cut Loose (10) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Simon Miller
5.55.55.55.25.5
8. Written Exceed (5) J: Brad Rawiller (57.5kg) T: T M Andrews
666.56.36.5
9. The Haitian Poet (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (57kg) T: P J Naylor
16151516.215
10. Powerful (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham
7776.47

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 5:34pm (AEDT)

(6) Ambergate Rose comes up each way odds again today and I think she’s worth sticking with. She arguably should have won last start when she got cut in half at the top of the straight before charging home into 2nd. Prior to that she sat three-wide the trip behind subsequent Fairetha Stakes winner It’sarayday, and first up recorded the fastest final 400m of the meeting. With luck she goes close.

(1) Cross Statement was well-fancied first up and was only run down late by Mercanto, who then came out and won again. Form looks strong and he’ll be hard to run down again from the front. There is plenty of speed in this race though.

Tip: (6) Ambergate Rose E/W $9.00/$2.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN, 1.25 units PLACE Ambergate Rose

202257

Race 4

Amelia Park Hcp (C3) (1400m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Amelia Park Hcp (C3) (1400m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

1. New Amsterdam (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (60.5kg) T: A G Durrant
8.58.58.58.68.5
2. Spookwood (1) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: C G Willis
3126262926
3. Sentimental Friend (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (59kg) T: Ms K Pisconeri
18181818.218
4. Safety Bay (3) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (57.5kg) T: F R Kersley
3.53.63.63.33.6
5. Stellar Vista (7) J: Patrick Carbery (57.5kg) T: Simon Miller
2.52.52.52.32.5
6. Sun Chacen (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: B P Fitzgerald
13121213.212
7. Doowahdiddy (4) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: Martin Allan
5.5555.65
8. Yulong Earth (10) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: M W Bairstow
2121212023
9. Champagne Gal (9) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
2019192019
10. Dalalah (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: Ms M J Midgley
151151151141151

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 6:14pm (AEDT)

I was keen to be with (1) New Amsterdam at the early $9.00 quote and that was before the scratching of Stellar Vista. He’s undefeated at this track and distance, including a win first up last preparation. Has to carry top weight but he’s done that before and run well and he handles all surfaces. Looks hard to beat today.

(4) Safety Bay looks the obvious danger, coming off a 3rd placing in similar company last start. Before that ran midfield in a 66+ race on a Saturday after sitting three-wide the trip.

(7) Doowahdiddy next best.

Tip: (1) New Amsterdam $5.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN New Amsterdam

202257

Race 5

Byron Bay Premium Lager-Rs0ly (1500m)
6:50pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Byron Bay Premium Lager-Rs0ly (1500m)
6:50pm (AEDT)

1. On Red Alert (1) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Alanis O'hara
3.53.53.43.43.4
2. Uncle Lino (5) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (58.5kg) T: Raymond Vincent
2726262626
3. Native Chimes (7) J: Ms Holly Watson (58kg) T: Ms P Kenney
76.56.56.96.5
4. Friar Away (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (57.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
2121212223
5. Beaucount (4) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: B P Graham
2626262626
6. Greatness Awaits (9) J: William Pike (56kg) T: Mark Ford
98.58.59.18.5
7. Pat's Got Sass (2) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D R Harrison
2.52.62.72.352.7
8. He's All Mighty (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: A G Durrant
12121212.212
9. Acermetric (10) J: Shaun O'donnell (54.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
2321212023
10. High Mist (8) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: David Catarino
13121212.812

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 6:54pm (AEDT)

I’m convinced (10) High Mist is flying. His run in a 72+ Saturday race last start was very good – the apprentice just missed the boat when it was time to get into the race. Gets conditions to suit today with a slightly rain-affected track. The big negative is the drop back from 1800m to 1500m, but there just aren’t any suitable races around for him. Troy Turner goes on today and if he can get rolling at the half-mile, I think he’s at least a place chance.

(6) Greatness Awaits gets Pike booked first up with no public trial. This horse won first up over the mile last preparation on a soft track and with the wizard booked today, it would be no surprise to see him fire first up.

(7) Pat’s Got Sass has been running in the good three-year-old races in her first two runs this prep and now drops all the way down to a No-Metro-Win race. Will be hard to beat if she brings her best.

Tip: (10) High Mist E/W $12.20/$3.55 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN, 1 unit PLACE High Mist

202257

Race 6

Happy 50Th Bday D Morton (C3) (1800m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Happy 50Th Bday D Morton (C3) (1800m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

1. Jarman (2) J: Ms Victoria Corver (60kg) T: G P Jones
3.63.73.73.653.7
2. Cape Reign (8) J: Jett Stanley (59kg) T: Martin Allan
12111112.211
3. Alimentaria (6) J: William Pike (58.5kg) T: Ms T Itzstein
4.64.64.84.654.8
4. Black Chips (5) J: Patrick Carbery (58.5kg) T: Tony Giglietta
19191915.819
5. Regal City (11) J: Mitchell Pateman (58kg) T: A W Maley
6.56.56.56.66.5
6. There's A Thought (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (58kg) T: D L Morton
4.64.64.64.654.6
7. Red Hot Hope (10) J: Steven Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham
16151515.215
8. Casa Rosada (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: R W Williams
1919191719
9. Choose Freedom (4) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: Jade Tangaroa
34343426.534
10. Night Session (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: R W Price
14141412.214
11. Taxi (9) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: R C Mcpherson
17171713.817

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 7:29pm (AEDT)

This is just a bad race to bet into.

(3) Alimentaria was good in her first few starts this prep but was ordinary last start. Seemingly goes better on firm ground but she does get Pike on board today.

(6) There’s A Thought won two on the bounce before being outclassed last start. Is another one that probably prefers firm ground but gets a cheap run from barrier 1 and should go close.

(1) Cape Reign won first up last prep and tackles the 1800m first up today.

Couldn’t back anything here.

Tip: (6) There's A Thought $4.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

202257

Race 7

Crown Perth Hcp (C3) (1800m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Crown Perth Hcp (C3) (1800m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

1. Meet Joe Black (8) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: David A Smith
9.598.59.68.5
2. Pambella (1) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham
4.84.855.15
3. Beanie (10) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (58.5kg) T: F R Kersley
6.5665.36
4. Dark Lass (7) J: Jett Stanley (58.5kg) T: G & A Williams
3.73.73.73.753.7
5. The Roan Ranger (3) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: P E Roberts
6.56.56.56.66.5
6. Cable Guy (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: M Knox
999.59.69.5
7. Smoking Barrel (2) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: E S Wake
15151512.815
8. Gin 'N' Swanic (4) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: D L Morton
20202117.421
9. Talented Escape (6) J: Ms Holly Watson (56kg) T: Holly Taylor
1414141214
10. Datalka (11) J: Ms Victoria Corver (55kg) T: P H Jordan
18181818.218
11. Texas Moon (5) J: Taj Dyson (54kg) T: Ms K Kersley
8181816181

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 8:04pm (AEDT)

Another race where I couldn’t back anything.

(4) Dark Lass was well backed and got the money over 2200m last start. Drops back to 1800m now which isn’t ideal but is rock-hard fit now. Does lose Pike for the apprentice though.

(5) The Roan Ranger looks ready now third up form a spell after a good run last start, but he struggles to get his head in front, with just one win from 22 starts.

(2) Pambella is in a similar boat after going close last start. Struggles to win and also doesn’t appreciate wet ground.

(3) Beanie didn’t run out 2200m last start and is better suited back to this distance.

Tip: (4) Dark Lass $4.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

202257

Race 8

Mumm Champagne Hcp (C1) (1600m)
8:38pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Mumm Champagne Hcp (C1) (1600m)
8:38pm (AEDT)

1. Ima Sly Fox (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (60kg) T: Ms S L Miller
21212118.823
2. Tactical Ploy (12) J: Craig Staples (60kg) T: Brian Rogers
151151151111151
3. My Squeeze Louise (6) J: William Pike (59.5kg) T: P J Fernie
3.33.43.43.153.4
4. Brave Call (4) J: Ms Holly Watson (59kg) T: Rhys Radford
14141413.214
5. Rag 'N' Boneman (9) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: A F Beckett
9191816781
6. Act Innocent (8) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (58.5kg) T: Raymond Vincent
16151514.415
7. Kentucky Blue (1) J: Steven Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
6666.16
8. Red Cadillac (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57.5kg) T: Fenella Martin
4.64.54.44.654.4
9. Master Moore (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (56.5kg) T: Rhys Radford
2326262126
10. My Dilemma (11) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
444.24.254.2
11. Rock Hard Omaru (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56.5kg) T: Kirsten Melis
17171714.417
12. Sunset Cruise (10) J: Troy Turner (56kg) T: Holly Taylor
2626262126

Odds Last Updated: November 10, 2021, 8:39pm (AEDT)

(3) My Squeeze Louise didn’t do much at all in her first start in WA for new trainer Peter Fernie. Up in distance to the mile today should suit her better and the money is there to suggest she can bounce back.

(10) My Dilemma ran in a good race first up and then bolted in last start. Drawn awkwardly here but can go close in a race that lacks a bit of depth.

(6) Act Innocent can outrun her odds. She came out of a strong maiden two starts ago behind Mahaleo and Kolchino and then won over this distance last start.

Tip: (10) My Dilemma $4.25 BoomBet

Value: (6) Act Innocent $19.20 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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