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Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 18th

Ascot hosts eight races on Wednesday afternoon and we continue our coverage of the Perth carnival with a look at every race on the program.

Ascot Racecourse

Ascot hosts eight races on Wednesday afternoon and we continue our coverage of the Perth carnival with a look at every race on the program.

The track is still recovering from the belting it took on Saturday, currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 16m.

Best Bet: Race 8 – (1) Aberdeen Queen

Best Value: Race 5 – (6) Advocator

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Race 1

Budget Car & Truck Rental Mdn (1500m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Budget Car & Truck Rental Mdn (1500m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Said No One Ever (11) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: D L Morton
3.23.63.153.4
2. Forty Niner (7) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: Felicity Forbes-Ives
3.53.43.353.6
3. Kalakaua (5) J: Jordan Turner (58kg) T: C H Webster
26312426
4. King Cruzer (12) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
20261921
5. Riding Hood Fame (14) J: Ms Lisa Staples (56kg) T: Bill Spencer
718111181
6. Doowahdiddy (13) J: Mitchell Pateman (56kg) T: Martin Allan
5.55.55.15.5
7. Special Picture (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
141415.212
8. Justhandy (8) J: Jason Brown (54kg) T: R C Mcpherson
131314.213
9. Vicinity (2) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: N D Parnham
41414341
10. Baronova (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54kg) T: J T Warwick
9.5109.68.5
11. Keeper Sweet (3) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Jeremy Easthope
232626.523
12. Lenglen's Choice (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (58kg) T: M Santich
13. Prairie Angel (4) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (56kg) T: F R Kersley
14. Get The Goods (15) J: Unknown (58kg) T: R J Lewis
15. Gracious Girl (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Ms P Wagg

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Two horses I’m keen to back in the opener here. (2) Forty Niner ran well on debut behind Blow Me Out and then had no luck last start, trapped three-wide the trip, but still managed to battle on well behind Beau Zoom in a Saturday race.

She was only a pimple behind (6) Doowahdiddy in that race on debut and ran home better for her final 400m and 200m. Doowahdiddy had the box seat throughout so no excuses on his part, and with the better draw here, I think Forty Niner is the better bet of the two.

The speed map is awkward for the favourite (1) Said No One Ever. The rail is out 16m so if they go back, he might have a tough time picking them up.

I think the value in the race is (10) Baranova at $11. She ran 3rd on debut at Bunbury on Cup day, beaten by Son Son, who goes around later in the day and was also nominated for a Stakes race this Saturday. I think that’s decent form and Lucy Warwick jumps off Forty Niner to ride for her Dad here, replacing Nicole Hopwood. That’s a big jockey change and at double figures I’m keen to play.

Tip: (2) Forty Niner $4.40 TAB

Value: (10) Baranova $11 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Forty Niner, 0.5 units WIN Baranova

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Race 2

Ascend Sales Trophies (Rs0ly) (1400m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Ascend Sales Trophies (Rs0ly) (1400m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

1. No Surrender (5) J: Mitchell Pateman (60kg) T: D T Mcauliffe
3.83.83.553.8
2. Mightiness (8) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: G & A Williams
7.587.48
3. Powerful (7) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
141415.214
4. Son Son (9) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
4.84.84.54.8
5. Town Hall (6) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
10109.210
6. Tradem' In (3) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: T R Harvey
6.576.47
7. Yelverton (4) J: Jordan Turner (58kg) T: G P Poletti
81101131126
8. Jedi Mind (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: Brett Pope
9887.5
9. Ghobella (2) J: Ben Paterson (55kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
7.57.56.57.5

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is a terrific race for a Wednesday.

(4) Son Son won on debut at Bunbury and notably, he was also entered for Saturday’s Placid Ark Stakes, so the stable must have a decent opinion of him. They’ve scratched him from that and take the easier option here. Clint Johnston-Porter takes over from 3kg apprentice Victoria Corver, and despite the awkward draw, I think he’ll be hard to beat at $5.50.

The other horse I’m keen to back is (6) Tradem’ In, which was the biggest set up job you will ever see on debut. The horse couldn’t keep up in its first trial and was then strangled in its second trial, running up backsides the whole straight to finish second last. It opened about $34 at Northam and was crunched into $7.50 at the jump and sure enough, bolted in by 2.5L. Clearly there is a bit under the bonnet. Much harder race today but there has been money on again and at $5.00 he’s a bet.

(5) Town Hall trialled well leading into this prep and finished hard first up to win his maiden. At $16 he looks the value in the race.

(8) Jedi Mind started $4.00 in that same race as Town Hall and had no luck at all, held up until the 100m mark. He draws barrier 1 again today so will want to jump better, though he does have a cutaway in the straight to give him clear running.

Tip: (4) Son Son $5.50 Sportsbet

Also backing: (6) Tradem’ In $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Son Son, 1 unit WIN Tradem’ In

0

Race 3

The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1200m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3

The Tabtouch Masters Hcp (C1) (1200m)
5:35pm (AEDT)

1. Indominus (1) J: Troy Turner (60.5kg) T: C H Webster
9.58.588.5
2. Brutus Maximus (11) J: Paul Harvey (60kg) T: D R Harrison
131211.212
3. Jakestar (7) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (59.5kg) T: Holly Locke
655.55
4. Angelic Miss (6) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: Simon Miller
1.8521.821.95
5. The Honeyman (9) J: Peter Knuckey (59kg) T: Ms K Fleming
51618161
6. Casino War (4) J: Ms Simone Altieri (58.5kg) T: Krista Pike
161517.216
7. Mind Tricks (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: Tameeka Brown
8. Playing Red (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
999.69
9. What Planet You On (10) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
31314134
10. Jay Dee (8) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: G J Mcpherson
201916.419
11. Tenacity (3) J: Jason Whiting (55.5kg) T: E A Gardiner
91101131151

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Looks a good race for the favourite (4) Angelic Miss who drops back to 1200m after failing over 1400m last start. Prior to that she ran 2nd to Solaia, which looks a good form line for a race like this. Chris Parnham goes back on, replacing Chloe Azzopardi and with even luck she looks the one to beat.

(2) Brutus Maximus returns from an 11-week spell. He’s a talented galloper on his day but he’s clearly been plagued by issues. 1200m might just be on the short side of his best distance, especially with the rail out 16m, but notably, Paul Harvey goes on first up, replacing Chris Graham who rode him in all three starts last time in. At double figures, I could certainly have something on.

(3) Jakestar will get out and make his own luck. He gets Carleen Hefel on for her first ride in WA. The Home In Five form is very strong and with the rail out 16m he will take some catching.

(1) Indominus returns from a year off the track so I would prefer to see him first up, however he did run 4th to Superstorm last time we saw him.

Tip: (4) Angelic Miss $2.30 Unibet

Value: (2) Brutus Maximus $11 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Angelic Miss, 0.5 units WIN Brutus Maximus

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Race 4

Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C1) (1200m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C1) (1200m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

1. Bright Glow (12) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Luke Fernie
89.57.98.5
2. Classy Macro (2) J: Ms Madi Derrick (60kg) T: S J Rowe
46616761
3. Stumble (11) J: Ryan Hill (60kg) T: R C Mcpherson
202021.518
4. Dignity Bay (9) J: Craig Staples (59.5kg) T: Ms J Panizza
262626.526
5. Scandolo (3) J: Ben Paterson (59.5kg) T: S W Barrass
6. Ellie'n'pink (6) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: A G Durrant
43.44.053.6
7. Ghost Who Walks (5) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
2.72.82.652.9
8. Precautionary (1) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (58kg) T: F R Kersley
5.54.854.6
9. Regal Magic (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: E A Martinovich
26513031
10. Bon Odyssey (4) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: Simon Miller
9.5119.310
11. Under The Radar (10) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D T Mcauliffe
12. Sea Waif (8) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Brett Pope

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Not keen to bet here.

(8) Precautionary drops back heavily in class to a class 1, having run second last in the Listed Burgess Queen Stakes on Melbourne Cup day. Prior to that she wasn’t beaten far behind the likes of Point Taken and Indigo Blue, which is good form. She should control the ace from the front and take some catching, though the step back to 1200m is some query.

(7) Ghost Who Walks had no luck at all on debut, held up the entire straight. He then went to Northam and made reasonable ground from last, before breaking his maiden here at Ascot last time out. Not sure what he beat there but he can go close again stepping up to 1200m.

(6) Ellie’n’pink finished off well here first up over 1000m and should appreciate the step up to 1200m, while (10) Bon Odyssey can also be included.

Tip: (7) Ghost Who Walks $4.20 Unibet

Betting strategy: No bet

0

Race 5

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet (C3) (1000m)
6:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet (C3) (1000m)
6:45pm (AEDT)

1. Shackleton (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (61kg) T: C & M Gangemi
15131314
2. Zenaze (2) J: Troy Turner (60kg) T: C H Webster
11911.29
3. Dew West (5) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: J N Pateman
3.63.73.853.8
4. He's All Mighty (6) J: Joseph Azzopardi (59.5kg) T: A G Durrant
10810.28.5
5. Olga Louisa (1) J: Jason Whiting (58.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne
111210.212
6. Advocator (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (57.5kg) T: F R Kersley
8.58.57.98.5
7. Cockyjoy (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: J E Grieve
4.854.74.8
8. Nobelium (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: R J Lewis
66.55.77
9. Time To Trade (10) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: D R Pateman
101151171151
10. Mindarie (7) J: Craig Staples (55kg) T: P H Jordan
171614.616

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Another hard race to be confident in. Depending on what the track is rated at this stage of the day, (6) Advocator might well have found the perfect conditions. She’s only won two races from 21 starts, but she definitely does her best racing when the track is soft. She’s yet to win from 16 starts on good ground, but she’s won two from five on soft ground. She’s been racing well without winning recently. She didn’t have much luck last start and prior to that, she wasn’t beaten far by Chantorque. Back to the 1000m today, hopefully she goes forward and gives a sight at $9.50.

(3) Dew West is capable in a race like this. She’s better leading so expect an aggressive ride.

(4) He’s All Mighty won nicely last start but comes back in trip to the 1000m.

(1) Shackleton goes well at Ascot but has never placed from fours tarts on soft ground, while (2) Zenaze has to be some query at the trip.

Tough race but $9.50 for Advocator is a decent price.

Tip: (6) Advocator $9.50 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN, 1 unit PLACE Advocator

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Race 6

Gordon Stemp Memorial Hcp (C1) (1600m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Gordon Stemp Memorial Hcp (C1) (1600m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

1. Lord Lonsdale (6) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
3.943.754
2. Pasaran (8) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: Brett Pope
119.511.29
3. Designer Prince (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58.5kg) T: B Monteleone
51818371
4. I Am The Sheriff (2) J: Chris Graham (58kg) T: B M Kay
61919581
5. Man Of The Hour (3) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (58kg) T: D L Morton
161713.817
6. Safe To Makeup (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57.5kg) T: J T Warwick
4.854.55
7. Dynamic Force (1) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
77.56.87
8. See Ya Champ (11) J: Jason Whiting (57kg) T: G C Ballantyne
7.57.57.38
9. Holyoake (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56.5kg) T: Brett Pope
7.567.66.5
10. Zip Zam Zoom (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (56.5kg) T: F R Kersley
88.57.48.5
11. Black Ruby Rose (4) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: Matthew Scott
101151191151
12. His 'N' Hers (12) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: A R Ives

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Keen to bet here!

(6) Safe To Makeup comes here on the six-day backup for the king of the quick backup, Justin Warwick. She’s only had one career win, and other than that she hasn’t done a great deal, but third up with this set up rings alarm bells for me and at $8.50 she’s a bet.

(7) Dynamic Force was no hope last start after settling back in the field on a day where it was impossible to make ground. Can improve here at $8.00.

(8) See Ya Champ should have gone close to winning first up over 1400m here but he didn’t get a lot of luck at all in the straight. The rail was at 14m that day and the track was a soft 7, so under similar circumstances today, if he can have clear running in the straight, he’ll go very close.

(9) Holyoake comes out of that same race as See Ya Champ, where she ran 2nd. She won prior to that and has to be included.

Tip: (6) Safe To Makeup $8.50 Bet365

Also backing: (8) See Ya Champ $8.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Safe To Makeup, 1 unit WIN See Ya Champ, 0.5 unit WIN Dynamic Force

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Race 7

Heineken 3 (Rs0ly) (2200m)
8:05pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Heineken 3 (Rs0ly) (2200m)
8:05pm (AEDT)

1. Ouqba Ted (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: C H Webster
77.56.68
2. Big Caroline (12) J: Chris Graham (59.5kg) T: Brian Rogers
67101111101
3. Beaucount (1) J: Ryan Hill (59kg) T: B P Graham
10109.210
4. Bollinger Boy (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (59kg) T: A G Durrant
8.59.510.29
5. Great Waters (11) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58.5kg) T: Martin Allan
6. Heaven's Gift (14) J: Jarrad Noske (58.5kg) T: Holly Locke
7. Aragain (9) J: Peter Hall (57kg) T: C G Willis
8.598.38.5
8. Deputano (8) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: L Smith
9810.28
9. Secret Pearl (4) J: Jason Brown (55.5kg) T: Ricky Moss
3.73.83.93.8
10. Pink And Purple (13) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
232123.523
11. Sentimental Queen (7) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (54.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
98.58.38.5
12. The Cat Ratcher (15) J: Paul Harvey (56kg) T: D R Harrison
14161315
13. Racy Ava (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
9108.79.5
14. Showaddywaddy (5) J: Chris Parnham (54.5kg) T: D L Morton
15. Hyperspace (10) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

2200m race here and it’s a no bet race if I’ve ever seen one.

(7) Aragain doesn’t win out of turn but she went close two starts ago over this track and distance before settling last when failing here last start. She juts got way too far back and was never a hope. Expect a more positive ride today and she does go well on soft ground.

(8) Deputano rarely got clear running in the straight last time out and did win over the mile before that. Up to 2200m today, he’s got a good overall record at Ascot and has won on soft ground before, so has to be a chance in this.

(9) Secret Pearl was very heavily backed at Bunbury on Melbourne Cup day and destroyed the field. She seems to do her best racing on soft ground with two wins from four starts and she’ll enjoy a good run from barrier 4 here. Her only prior start at this track and distance was a win.

(4) Bollinger Boy steps back up in distance after dropping back to the mile last start.

Tip: (7) Aragain $7.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

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Race 8

Kirin Megumi Hcp (C5) (1200m)
8:40pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Kirin Megumi Hcp (C5) (1200m)
8:40pm (AEDT)

1. Aberdeen Queen (4) J: Ms Carleen Hefel (59.5kg) T: L Smith
2.1522.32.1
2. Bruce Almighty (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham
12121113
3. Prevailing Winds (5) J: Brad Parnham (57.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
88.57.88.5
4. Wild Front (8) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (57kg) T: Ms W Miller
232619.626
5. The Escort (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
212119.226
6. Turbo Power (2) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
121512.614
7. Revel (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
202619.223
8. Bolshoi Gal (6) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: D T Mcauliffe
111211.211
9. Island Missile (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: C & M Gangemi
65.55.25.5
10. Requisition (1) J: Ms Hannah Fitzgerald (54.5kg) T: Brett Pope
7.58.58.3

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Lindsey Smith looks to have given Carleen Hefel a winner in her first meeting in WA with (1) Aberdeen Queen. She returns from a spell having won four of her eight starts. She’s won three of her four starts on soft ground and with even luck, she looks the one to beat.

I thought her biggest danger was (9) Island Missile but the soft ground really doesn’t help him. He’s been very good in his first two starts for the new stable and he has a good third up record, but he’s yet to place from eight starts on wet ground.

With that in mind, (8) Bolshoi Gal could be the danger and/or value at $8.00 for McAuliffe and Parnham.

Tip: (1) Aberdeen Queen $2.25 TAB

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Aberdeen Queen

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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