Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 18th

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Two horses I’m keen to back in the opener here. (2) Forty Niner ran well on debut behind Blow Me Out and then had no luck last start, trapped three-wide the trip, but still managed to battle on well behind Beau Zoom in a Saturday race.

She was only a pimple behind (6) Doowahdiddy in that race on debut and ran home better for her final 400m and 200m. Doowahdiddy had the box seat throughout so no excuses on his part, and with the better draw here, I think Forty Niner is the better bet of the two.

The speed map is awkward for the favourite (1) Said No One Ever. The rail is out 16m so if they go back, he might have a tough time picking them up.

I think the value in the race is (10) Baranova at $11. She ran 3^rd on debut at Bunbury on Cup day, beaten by Son Son, who goes around later in the day and was also nominated for a Stakes race this Saturday. I think that’s decent form and Lucy Warwick jumps off Forty Niner to ride for her Dad here, replacing Nicole Hopwood. That’s a big jockey change and at double figures I’m keen to play.

Tip: (2) Forty Niner $4.40 TAB

Value: (10) Baranova $11 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Forty Niner, 0.5 units WIN Baranova

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is a terrific race for a Wednesday.

(4) Son Son won on debut at Bunbury and notably, he was also entered for Saturday’s Placid Ark Stakes, so the stable must have a decent opinion of him. They’ve scratched him from that and take the easier option here. Clint Johnston-Porter takes over from 3kg apprentice Victoria Corver, and despite the awkward draw, I think he’ll be hard to beat at $5.50.

The other horse I’m keen to back is (6) Tradem’ In, which was the biggest set up job you will ever see on debut. The horse couldn’t keep up in its first trial and was then strangled in its second trial, running up backsides the whole straight to finish second last. It opened about $34 at Northam and was crunched into $7.50 at the jump and sure enough, bolted in by 2.5L. Clearly there is a bit under the bonnet. Much harder race today but there has been money on again and at $5.00 he’s a bet.

(5) Town Hall trialled well leading into this prep and finished hard first up to win his maiden. At $16 he looks the value in the race.

(8) Jedi Mind started $4.00 in that same race as Town Hall and had no luck at all, held up until the 100m mark. He draws barrier 1 again today so will want to jump better, though he does have a cutaway in the straight to give him clear running.

Tip: (4) Son Son $5.50 Sportsbet

Also backing: (6) Tradem’ In $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Son Son, 1 unit WIN Tradem’ In

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Looks a good race for the favourite (4) Angelic Miss who drops back to 1200m after failing over 1400m last start. Prior to that she ran 2^nd to Solaia, which looks a good form line for a race like this. Chris Parnham goes back on, replacing Chloe Azzopardi and with even luck she looks the one to beat.

(2) Brutus Maximus returns from an 11-week spell. He’s a talented galloper on his day but he’s clearly been plagued by issues. 1200m might just be on the short side of his best distance, especially with the rail out 16m, but notably, Paul Harvey goes on first up, replacing Chris Graham who rode him in all three starts last time in. At double figures, I could certainly have something on.

(3) Jakestar will get out and make his own luck. He gets Carleen Hefel on for her first ride in WA. The Home In Five form is very strong and with the rail out 16m he will take some catching.

(1) Indominus returns from a year off the track so I would prefer to see him first up, however he did run 4^th to Superstorm last time we saw him.

Tip: (4) Angelic Miss $2.30 Unibet

Value: (2) Brutus Maximus $11 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Angelic Miss, 0.5 units WIN Brutus Maximus

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

Not keen to bet here.

(8) Precautionary drops back heavily in class to a class 1, having run second last in the Listed Burgess Queen Stakes on Melbourne Cup day. Prior to that she wasn’t beaten far behind the likes of Point Taken and Indigo Blue, which is good form. She should control the ace from the front and take some catching, though the step back to 1200m is some query.

(7) Ghost Who Walks had no luck at all on debut, held up the entire straight. He then went to Northam and made reasonable ground from last, before breaking his maiden here at Ascot last time out. Not sure what he beat there but he can go close again stepping up to 1200m.

(6) Ellie’n’pink finished off well here first up over 1000m and should appreciate the step up to 1200m, while (10) Bon Odyssey can also be included.

Tip: (7) Ghost Who Walks $4.20 Unibet

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Another hard race to be confident in. Depending on what the track is rated at this stage of the day, (6) Advocator might well have found the perfect conditions. She’s only won two races from 21 starts, but she definitely does her best racing when the track is soft. She’s yet to win from 16 starts on good ground, but she’s won two from five on soft ground. She’s been racing well without winning recently. She didn’t have much luck last start and prior to that, she wasn’t beaten far by Chantorque. Back to the 1000m today, hopefully she goes forward and gives a sight at $9.50.

(3) Dew West is capable in a race like this. She’s better leading so expect an aggressive ride.

(4) He’s All Mighty won nicely last start but comes back in trip to the 1000m.

(1) Shackleton goes well at Ascot but has never placed from fours tarts on soft ground, while (2) Zenaze has to be some query at the trip.

Tough race but $9.50 for Advocator is a decent price.

Tip: (6) Advocator $9.50 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN, 1 unit PLACE Advocator

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Keen to bet here!

(6) Safe To Makeup comes here on the six-day backup for the king of the quick backup, Justin Warwick. She’s only had one career win, and other than that she hasn’t done a great deal, but third up with this set up rings alarm bells for me and at $8.50 she’s a bet.

(7) Dynamic Force was no hope last start after settling back in the field on a day where it was impossible to make ground. Can improve here at $8.00.

(8) See Ya Champ should have gone close to winning first up over 1400m here but he didn’t get a lot of luck at all in the straight. The rail was at 14m that day and the track was a soft 7, so under similar circumstances today, if he can have clear running in the straight, he’ll go very close.

(9) Holyoake comes out of that same race as See Ya Champ, where she ran 2^nd. She won prior to that and has to be included.

Tip: (6) Safe To Makeup $8.50 Bet365

Also backing: (8) See Ya Champ $8.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Safe To Makeup, 1 unit WIN See Ya Champ, 0.5 unit WIN Dynamic Force

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

2200m race here and it’s a no bet race if I’ve ever seen one.

(7) Aragain doesn’t win out of turn but she went close two starts ago over this track and distance before settling last when failing here last start. She juts got way too far back and was never a hope. Expect a more positive ride today and she does go well on soft ground.

(8) Deputano rarely got clear running in the straight last time out and did win over the mile before that. Up to 2200m today, he’s got a good overall record at Ascot and has won on soft ground before, so has to be a chance in this.

(9) Secret Pearl was very heavily backed at Bunbury on Melbourne Cup day and destroyed the field. She seems to do her best racing on soft ground with two wins from four starts and she’ll enjoy a good run from barrier 4 here. Her only prior start at this track and distance was a win.

(4) Bollinger Boy steps back up in distance after dropping back to the mile last start.

Tip: (7) Aragain $7.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Lindsey Smith looks to have given Carleen Hefel a winner in her first meeting in WA with (1) Aberdeen Queen. She returns from a spell having won four of her eight starts. She’s won three of her four starts on soft ground and with even luck, she looks the one to beat.

I thought her biggest danger was (9) Island Missile but the soft ground really doesn’t help him. He’s been very good in his first two starts for the new stable and he has a good third up record, but he’s yet to place from eight starts on wet ground.

With that in mind, (8) Bolshoi Gal could be the danger and/or value at $8.00 for McAuliffe and Parnham.

Tip: (1) Aberdeen Queen $2.25 TAB

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Aberdeen Queen