Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, November 18th

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(2) Right Honourable and (9) Anonyma fought out the finish with Murray’s Partners last start over this same track and distance. Anonyma led the race that night, while Right Honourable came from the back half of the field after drawing barrier 10. He draws better in barrier 4 tonight so he should be able to sit a pair or two closer in the run. He recorded quite clearly the fastest final 400m of the race last start, so he’s ready to win. Purton sticks with him and he looks hard to beat.

There’s no chance Anonyma gets the lead tonight in my opinion, as (6) Faithful Trinity will likely take up that position. The jockey that rode him last start got grilled by Stewards for going too slow and handing up the lead, and he’s been replaced by a 3kg apprentice tonight, so no doubt the tactics will be to find the front and lead. His form prior to last start was very good, so with the weight relief and positive tactics, he’s going to take some catching.

I’ll be backing Faithful Trinity and saving on the favourite Right Honourable.

Tip: (6) Faithful Trinity $4.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Faithful Trinity, 0.5 units WIN Right Honourable

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(2) Ka Fortune finds a winnable race tonight with Zac Purton taking over from Matthew Poon. He ran 2^nd first up, beaten 0.75L, though he did have every chance from the inside gate. He draws well again in barrier 4 tonight and should be able to settle one-out, one-back. His trials leading into this prep were decent so he looks to have returned in decent order.

(5) Vital Spring can go close from the inside barrier, like he did three starts ago here.

Happy to oppose Moreira’s mount (9) Kwai Chung Elite, who has had his fair share of chances.

Tip: (2) Ka Fortune $2.70 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ka Fortune

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

I’ve been waiting a long time for Purton to take the ride on (6) Lucky Missile and I get my wish tonight. He’s ridden this horse once before which was at the end of his first preparation when his form wasn’t good, but he gets back aboard second up tonight having also been aboard him in a recent trial. He goes nicely over this track and distance and he’s a horse who I’ve had a bit of time for throughout his career. Drawn well, I’m happy to back him at $6.00 and see what he can produce.

The favourite (4) Incanto Prepared does look the horse to beat having won easily two starts ago, with the horse he beat subsequently winning his next start.

Tip: (6) Lucky Missile E/W $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Lucky Missile

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

There’s a few at good odds here. (3) Won Ball is ready to win and Purton being booked suggests as much. He clocked the fastest final 800m and 400m in defeat last start and now third up from a spell with a positive jockey change, he looks suited.

(7) Gintoki ran well first up from a spell when 2^nd at Sha Tin. He then came to Happy Valley last start and was given less than none. He got cut in half in the straight and lost all chance of winning. Drawn wide tonight might actually suit as it will give him clear running. He’s big odds at $23 despite his poor record at the track.

The complete blowout in the race could be (10) Flying Photos at $41. He’s beaten five horses home in four career starts so it’s hard to be optimistic about his chances. He needs a class drop, but Karis Teetan jumps on and his past couple of trials have been OK.

(12) Fantastic Fabio won three starts ago here and he was very brave in defeat last start after doing a mountain of work. He’s another that’s probably better suited down in class but with no weight, he could give a sight at $12.

Tip: (3) Won Ball $7.00 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Won Ball, 0.25 units WIN Gintoki, Flying Photos, Fantastic Fabio

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Going to be taking on this favourite (10) Keep You Warm, with a few others appealing at better prices. I’ll also be taking on (5) Mig Energy who is a complete money-sucker! I can’t believe he’s $5.00 here.

Love the jockey change on (9) Hardly Swears with Karis Teetan replacing Alexis Badel. The horse has run three consecutive placings and has plenty of ability, he kind of needs things to go his way but he has a big finish on him.

(1) Storm Warnings ran well first up as expected, with Purton going on for Douglas Whyte. He draws wide again in 11 tonight but can roll forward and give a sight. That form behind Sky Darci is red hot and that was the same race that Hardly Swears ran 3^rd in.

Badel instead keeps the ride on (3) Meridian Genius who isn’t without a chance here.

Tip: (9) Hardly Swears $5.50 Sportsbet

Value: (1) Storm Warnings $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Hardly Swears, 1 unit WIN Storm Warnings

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Keen to be on (4) Green Luck tonight. His run first up was terrific, recording the second fastest final 400m of the race, beaten 0.5L. He might have needed that run first up but he should be ready to peak second up tonight. The winner of that race was Buddies, who then came out and won again in a better class of race. Should get a good run from the gate and this partnership between Fownes and Moreira has been hot all season.

Tip: (4) Green Luck $3.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Green Luck

Odds Last Updated: November 19, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

I’ll be forgiving (6) Scores Of Fun for his poor showing last start, when he worked across to lead from barrier 12 and emptied out. I’m not sure leading is his go so expect him to be ridden more quietly with a bit of cover tonight. The form behind Winning Dreamer from two starts ago is exceptional, and prior to that he won first up. This looks a good race if he can handle Happy Valley for the first time.

Tip: (6) Scores Of Fun $3.80 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Scores Of Fun