Racing Tips

Ballarat Racing Tips: Sunday, February 7th

After destroying the bookies this past week The Horse turns his attention to Ballarat. He has found the better bets on the card.

by
The Horse
7 February 2021

After destroying the bookies this past week The Horse turns his attention to Ballarat. He has reviewed Race 3, Race 4, Race 5, and Race 6.

Race 1

Ballarat Antenna Solutions Mdn (1200m)
1:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Ballarat Antenna Solutions Mdn (1200m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. Broadway Lane (7) J: Ben Allen (58kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	12	13	13	13	12.8	13
2. Capo Strada (10) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings	5.5	5.5	6	5.5	5.3	5
3. Cheerful Legend (1) J: Michael Dee (58kg) T: J D Sadler
4. Pounding (3) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P G Moody	7.5	6.5	7.5	6	6.8	6.5
5. Saif (8) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	2.2	2.25	2.2	2.25	2.2	2.2
6. Sandy Prince (9) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	16	17	18	18	17.4	17
7. Son Of Mercury (5) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	8	8	7.5	8.5	8.6	8.5
8. Little Schnitty (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (56kg) T: L & T Corstens	51	61	67	61	73	71
9. Madame Solario (4) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: N A Blackiston	23	26	31	26	26	26
10. Single Tail (2) J: Jamie Mott (56kg) T: John Mcardle	13	13	14	14	12.8	14

Odds Last Updated: February 9, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Cervus Equipment Mdn Plate (1200m)
2:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Cervus Equipment Mdn Plate (1200m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. First Mate (7) J: Steven Vella (59.5kg) T: Kylie Vella	4.5	4.2	4.6	4.4	4.55	4
2. High Ferocity (3) J: Ms Tatum Bull (59.5kg) T: P A Preusker
3. Jack's Honour (4) J: Randy Tan (59.5kg) T: R J Besanko	23	26	26	26	26.5	23
4. Art Dealer (2) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: Henry Dwyer	8	8.5	8	8	7.8	8.5
5. Kichierro (5) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: P Stokes
6. South Parade (1) J: Mark Zahra (59kg) T: J D Sadler	1.6	1.6	1.6	1.65	1.62	1.65
7. Sunset Aperitivo (8) J: Ms Kiran Quilty (59kg) T: S P Nichols
8. Thomas Hawk (6) J: Damian Lane (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	8	8.5	8	8.5	7.9	9
9. Loco Mojo (9) J: Jake Noonan (57.5kg) T: S P Nichols	31	34	41	41	39	26
10. Angelic Scent (10) J: Ethan Brown (57kg) T: M M Laurie

Odds Last Updated: February 9, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Pipepro Direct. Drilling Mdn (1400m)
2:35pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Pipepro Direct. Drilling Mdn (1400m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Beta Bite (3) J: Michael Poy (59.5kg) T: M Croston & G Gilmour	41	41	41	41	43	41
2. Francoli (7) J: Ms Jade Darose (59.5kg) T: Ms J Crosbie	51	61	81	91	93	81
3. He's God's Gift (8) J: Ms Lucinda Boyd (59.5kg) T: Rodney Foster	67	67	91	91	91	81
4. Jekyll'n'hyde (4) J: Jarrod Lorensini (59.5kg) T: S Morrish	15	17	16	17	17	17
5. Recidivist (9) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59.5kg) T: Erin Maher	23	26	26	26	26.5	23
6. The Stager (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (59.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	2.7	2.7	2.8	2.9	2.65	2.8
7. Fenyx (10) J: Beau Mertens (57.5kg) T: D T O'brien	14	16	15	16	14	12
8. Lysandra (1) J: Brian Higgins (57.5kg) T: Ms N Burke
9. Nuclear Miss (11) J: Jarrod Fry (57.5kg) T: Ms K Durden
10. Ski Zoom (2) J: Jamie Mott (57.5kg) T: Donna Mott	9	8.5	8.5	8.5	9.1	8.5
11. Tycoon Bucks (5) J: Jordan Childs (57.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet	2.1	2.15	2.15	2.2	2.1	2.1

Odds Last Updated: February 9, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

This looks a race in two with (11) Tycoon Bucks and (6) The Stager set to fight it out. Tycoon Bucks has punished us of late, with 7 starts for 4 places. The consistency of running second is starting to wear thin, and today he looks like he may settle for the minor prize again. His best effort was the 0.1 length defeat to Rising Sphere over the 1200 metres. Not sure the step up to 1400 metres is a good thing today. The Stager has similarly been in the minors, but the races he has been competing in look to be the stronger lines. So keen to have something on him here (in what looks no harder).

Tip: (6) The Stager $2.40

Race 4

Suez Mdn Plate (1400m)
3:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Suez Mdn Plate (1400m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Grand Final (5) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: Andrew Noblet	34	41	41	41	40	41
2. Halic (3) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: James Cummings
3. Ironedge (10) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	2.2	2.2	2.15	2.2	2.25	2.25
4. Mafiore (9) J: Ben Allen (58kg) T: Ms K Durden	81	91	201	101	111	126
5. Pal D'oro (6) J: Ethan Brown (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	2.9	3	2.8	3.1	2.9	2.8
6. Simpkin (11) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: M D Moroney	11	12	10	11	11.2	9.5
7. Danejararose (2) J: Fred W Kersley (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani	13	13	14	13	12.4	14
8. In Hot Water (4) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: M J Williams	11	11	9	12	10.4	9.5
9. Latin Affair (7) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: N A Blackiston
10. Mighty Mary (8) J: Jake Noonan (56kg) T: G Eurell	81	91	151	101	111	101
11. Ocean Royale (1) J: Beau Mertens (56kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	14	15	15	16	14.6	16
12. Tesorina (12) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra

Odds Last Updated: March 2, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

For me this is a simple strategy, taking (3) Ironedge for the win. He comes back after a nice spell and should be bigger and better. Last preparation he competed in Group 2 company, going down to the likes of Glenfiddich, along with placing third behind Crosshaven who went around yesterday in the Group 1 C.F. Orr Stakes placing third. That’s some serious company to keep! Price/Kent have placed Michael Walker on board and the horse gets the blinkers on. Admittedly this looks a solid maiden, with some better than average horses, but he should be winning. Best bet on the program.

Tip: (3) Ironedge $2.50

Race 5

Porter Plant (Bm64) (1200m)
3:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Porter Plant (Bm64) (1200m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. As I Please (13) J: Ms Melissa Julius (61.5kg) T: Symon Wilde	4.6	4.8	5	5	5.1	4.8
2. Bones (11) J: Daniel Moor (61kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	11	10	10	10	10	10
3. Saltpeter (3) J: Damien Oliver (61kg) T: J F Moloney	9.5	9.5	9.5	9.5	10.2	8.5
4. Burning The Clock (2) J: Dean Yendall (60kg) T: Mark Dennehy	9	9	8.5	10	8.7	9
5. Bastyan (9) J: Unknown (59.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
6. La Vina (4) J: Ethan Brown (59.5kg) T: L Smith	7.5	8	7.5	7.5	8.1	7.5
7. Bon Shadow (7) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Ms G Johnstone	34	31	34	31	32	34
8. Crowned Monarch (1) J: Jarrod Fry (59kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	6.5	6.5	7	6.5	6.7	7
9. Knock Knock (10) J: Ms Tatum Bull (59kg) T: P A Preusker	21	21	20	26	18.8	23
10. Legend Of Zorro (12) J: Jordan Childs (59kg) T: Andrew Noblet	4.8	5	4.8	4.8	4.5	5
11. Thorogood (8) J: Damian Lane (59kg) T: L & T Corstens	12	13	13	13	13	14
12. Governor Landy (6) J: Jake Noonan (58.5kg) T: A W Noonan	31	31	34	26	30	31
13. Our Free Spirit (5) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: A W Noonan

Odds Last Updated: March 2, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

We were on (1) As I Please last start and there is no reason why we should jump off today. He is 2 from 2 (both at The Bool) with his last start in this grade. He gets an outside gate which doesn’t matter, and is probably actually better than an inside draw when looking at the speed-map. Simon Wilde is training in fine form at the moment, and this horse is going to be fit and firing. At the current quote, he looks like a nice each-way play. The main competition looks to (6) La Vina first-up – and a couple at odds may make their presence felt including (11) Thorogood and (4) Burning The Clock.

Tip: (1) As I Please $4.80 (each-way)

Value: (4) Burning The Clock $9.50

Race 6

Hygain Winners Choice (Bm64) (1000m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Hygain Winners Choice (Bm64) (1000m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Humzz (8) J: Damien Thornton (62.5kg) T: Jamie Edwards
2. Dynamic Duo (13) J: Jake Noonan (60.5kg) T: A W Noonan
3. Sovereign Legend (4) J: Michael Dee (60.5kg) T: J D Sadler
4. Ardeeo (12) J: Ms Tatum Bull (60kg) T: P A Preusker
5. Areyoulistening (10) J: Jamie Mott (60kg) T: John Mcardle
6. O'reilly Mcluke (5) J: Beau Mertens (59.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
7. Young Harry Cool (9) J: Michael Walker (59kg) T: Colin Scott
8. Exceed Tycoon (11) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
9. The Billionaire (7) J: Dean Holland (58.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
10. Yankee Lou (6) J: Michael Poy (58.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
11. Continuance (1) J: Ethan Brown (57kg) T: L Smith
12. Hidden Charm (3) J: Daniel Moor (57kg) T: G A Osborne
13. Outrich (2) J: Dean Yendall (54.5kg) T: S P Nichols

Odds Last Updated: March 2, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

I like the look of (3) Sovereign Legend here first-up. He will want the track to improve from a Soft 5, but he is dropping down from better races in BM70 grade, gets a nice inside gate where Michael Dee will have the option of pushing for the lead or dropping in behind the first couple. His consecutive third places behind Final Man were good enough to be in contention here.

Another one down in grade, who has been disappointing this preparation, but gets a better chance today is (1) Humzz. The bookies got it wrong with him opening around $20, which has since evened up. Even at the current quote he is a nice value bet.

Tip: (3) Sovereign Legend $3.40

Value: (1) Humzz $11

Race 7

Sportsbet Racing Live (Bm64) (1400m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Sportsbet Racing Live (Bm64) (1400m) 4:55pm (AEDT)
1. Rock In The Park (5) J: Ms Tatum Bull (61.5kg) T: Shea Eden	11	11	10	10	11	12
2. Arctic Wolf (10) J: Fred W Kersley (61kg) T: M D Moroney	7.5	7	7.5	7.5	7.1	7
3. Vladivostok (6) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: John Mcardle	10	11	10	12	10.6	11
4. Revlis (4) J: Dean Holland (60kg) T: P A Preusker	5.5	5	4.6	4.8	5.2	5
5. Sandbanks (2) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (60kg) T: L Smith	18	19	20	19	19.4	21
6. Johnny Angel (7) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	7	7	8.5	7	7.6	5.5
7. Infinite Matrix (14) J: Michael Poy (59kg) T: Dan O'sullivan	15	16	14	15	16.2	16
8. Manhattan Arch (16) J: Dean Yendall (59kg) T: Daniel Bowman
9. Raffine (12) J: Jordan Childs (59kg) T: Archie Alexander	20	21	12	19	21.5	23
10. Gannett (9) J: Beau Mertens (58.5kg) T: S Morrish	46	51	51	51	51	51
11. Night Express (15) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer
12. Hamslette (1) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: Andrew Noblet	6.5	7	7	7.5	6.7	7.5
13. Star Jan (8) J: Jake Noonan (58kg) T: Archie Alexander	12	13	13	14	11.4	13
14. Vitosha (11) J: Daniel Moor (57kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	8	8.5	8.5	8.5	8	8.5
15. Miss Brixton (13) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
16. King Of Vandals (3) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: N A Blackiston

Odds Last Updated: February 9, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Hygain Winners Choice (Bm64) (1600m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Hygain Winners Choice (Bm64) (1600m) 5:30pm (AEDT)
1. Garimpeiro (10) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (61kg) T: L Smith	8	8	9	7.5	8.6	8.5
2. Eluding (9) J: Damien Thornton (60.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	8.1	6.5
3. Blunakka (2) J: Jarrod Lorensini (60kg) T: Dan O'sullivan	81	91	101	81	111	101
4. Court Deep (4) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	11	11	11	11	11.2	10
5. Heir To The Throne (13) J: Michael Poy (60kg) T: Henry Dwyer
6. Adandiman (11) J: Jordan Childs (59kg) T: Mitchell Freedman	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.75	3.6
7. Clever Approach (7) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: Maddie Raymond	20	19	19	21	21.5	18
8. My Divas (5) J: Beau Mertens (58.5kg) T: G A Osborne	14	14	15	15	15.2	14
9. Trench Warfare (3) J: Fred W Kersley (58.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	2.5	2.5	2.45	2.6	2.3	2.7
10. Kyshaka (6) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: Peter Hardacre
11. Lucques (1) J: Dean Holland (58kg) T: E V Musgrove	151	151	201	101	161	151
12. Nama Dude (12) J: Ms Alana Kelly (58kg) T: Daniel Kelly	31	34	41	41	35	34
13. Kiss In Spring (8) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (55.5kg) T: S A Dwyer

Odds Last Updated: March 2, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.