Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 15th

Race 1 Tabtouch Better Your Bet-Rs0ly (1400m) 5:19pm (AEDT)
1. Fatale Femme (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (61kg) T: S & J Casey
2. Cold Shizzle (4) J: Chris Parnham (59.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe		1.65		1.6	1.62
3. Cobbanco (1) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: B G Lucas		5.5		5	5.1
4. My Dilemma (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite		6		6.5	6.6
5. Lady Tornado (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant		5		4.8	4.95

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 5:22pm (AEDT)

No need to get involved here with a four-horse field and a $1.55 favourite.

(2) Cold Shizzle has won two from two this prep and can continue on here up to 1400m. Will be interesting to see how the race plays out from a tactical point of view but he looks the best horse in the race.

(5) Lady Tornado probably ends up as the leader here. Was good on debut, making up plenty of ground from back in the field on a day that was hard to do so. Broke through last start when ridden more positively.

(3) Cobbanco broke his maiden last start and deserved to do so. He hadn’t done anything wrong in his first two starts. He’ll be ridden cold and will get the last shot at them.

(4) My Dilemma won in similar grade to this last start and beat a couple of decent horses.

Tip: (2) Cold Shizzle $1.55 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 2 Ascend Sales Trophies (Rs0ly) (1000m) 5:54pm (AEDT)
1. Union Jack (2) J: Craig Staples (57kg) T: P H Jordan		11		11	11.2
2. De Zane Grey (4) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: V A Brockman		26		26	26.5
3. Galaxy Affair (9) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: D & B Pearce		34		41	38
4. Pazzo Cavallo (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57kg) T: Jayce Buckley		61		61	53
5. Swim Through (5) J: Ben Kennedy (57kg) T: A W Maley		7.5		7	7
6. Hotorio (8) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: D R Harrison		16		16	16.2
7. Laguna Miss (1) J: Ms Lisa Staples (55kg) T: P H Jordan
8. Mrs Kangaroo (11) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: D M Luciani		3.7		3.8	3.85
9. Ebony's Ace (6) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55kg) T: A W Maley		6.5		6	5.8
10. Lucky Sue (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: D R Harrison		2.7		2.7	2.6
11. Vonsnip (7) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: D R Harrison

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 5:57pm (AEDT)

(10) Lucky Sue trialled very impressively last time out for the David Harrison yard and draws a lovely gate for her debut with Shaun O’Donnell in the saddle. Looks the horse to beat.

(9) Ebony’s Ace was in that same trial and hit the line well under limited pressure. Don’t see a whole lot of 2YO winners from this yard but certainly looks to have some ability.

(8) Mrs Kangaroo looks the only speed in the race. Failed on debut in Saturday grade but this stable is very good at producing 2YO’s and Chris Parnham is a notable booking.

Tip: (10) Lucky Sue $2.15 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 3 Mumm Champagne Hcp (C3) (1000m) 6:34pm (AEDT)
1. Vadette De Star (5) J: Ms Holly Watson (60.5kg) T: Simon Miller		2.8		2.8	2.9
2. Divine Pair (7) J: Peter Knuckey (60kg) T: C H Webster		5.5		5.5	5.4
3. Go Forward (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi		2.35		2.4	2.3
4. No Mean Feet (6) J: Shaun O'donnell (58.5kg) T: Ms J Kelly		31		34	32
5. So Birikkino (1) J: Jason Brown (58kg) T: J P Taylor		9		10	9.3
6. Cut The Cord (3) J: (57kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
7. Nobelium (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: R J Lewis		17		21	17.6
8. Melody's Secret (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Meryl Hayley		34		41	40

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 6:37pm (AEDT)

(3) Go Forward gets another chance today. He bolted in three starts ago and since then he just hasn’t had things go right in two subsequent starts. Two starts ago he just got too far back from the gate and made up a stack of ground, running the fastest final 400m of the meeting. Then last start he was ridden more positively but had to sit three-wide the trip outside the leaders, and was run down late by Eeyore Wayz. That form was given a boost last weekend with Eeyore Wayz running a luckless 2^nd in Saturday company.

(1) Vadette De Star is very well placed back in a Class 3 on a Wednesday. She’s been racing against much better company than this in Saturday grade all prep, including the likes of Triple Missile and God Has Chosen. She’ll settle off the speed with apprentice Holly Watson taking over from Chris Parnham.

Tip: (3) Go Forward $2.70 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Go Forward

Race 4 Amelia Park Hcp (C1) (1200m) 7:10pm (AEDT)
1. Magic To Exceed (4) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: S & J Casey		2.25		2.1	2.4
2. Nobel Knight (9) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: M J Duffy		21		26	17.2
3. Bourbon Beau (1) J: Ben Kennedy (59kg) T: Ms A King		4		4.2	3.9
4. Hot Blooded (5) J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg) T: L P Luciani		6		8	6.8
5. Imprudent (6) J: Keshaw Dhurun (58.5kg) T: B R Larsson		16		16	13.6
6. Simple Logic (2) J: Steven Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham		5		4.8	4.65
7. Bring One Home (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
8. Guarded (3) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: N D Parnham		34		41	35
9. Marlini (7) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55.5kg) T: Ms D Baillie		34		41	34

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 7:12pm (AEDT)

Looks a suitable race for (1) Magic To Exceed who had to do it the hard way in Listed company last start, sitting three-wide the trip in the Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic. Back to Class 1 company today will see him hard to beat.

(6) Simple Logic resumes from a spell. The form behind The Front Bar from last prep stands out and he should be able to get a gun run from barrier 2.

(4) Hot Blooded is racing very well this prep and was only run down the final part of the race last start. Will be the one to run down again here.

(3) Bourbon Beau is knocking on the door with consecutive placings, beaten 0.25L in his two most recent starts. Draws the inside gate for a nice run and will be fighting out the finish but think the others have a class edge.

Tip: (1) Magic To Exceed $2.40 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 5 Free Entry To Belmont Park-C3 (1400m) 7:40pm (AEDT)
1. Yuna Mailman (3) J: Ms Holly Watson (59.5kg) T: Ms P Kenney		5.5		6	5.5
2. Cheval De Vaga (2) J: Keshaw Dhurun (58.5kg) T: Meryl Hayley		4		4	4.25
3. Enticing (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58.5kg) T: J P Taylor		5.5		6.5	5.5
4. Airlie Queen (1) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: G & A Williams		5		5.5	5.2
5. Captain Burglar (5) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham		5.5		4.8	5.4
6. Saturn Black (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: Deborah Murphy		10		9.5	8.6
7. Snippy Miss (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: A G Durrant		9		9.5	8.8
8. Yulong Earth (8) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: M W Bairstow		41		41	40
9. Datalka (4) J: Ms Victoria Corver (54.5kg) T: P H Jordan		41		34	41

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 7:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Cheval De Vaga won impressively first up, defeating War Warrior and My Marlaina. I think that’s a decent form reference and a repeat performance would make him hard to beat again here.

(4) Airlie Queen gets barrier 1 here. Ran well at Pinjarra last start when ridden cold from the wide gate. Can be more positive here and feature in the finish.

(1) Yuna Mailman leads and will take running down, while (3) Enticing and (6) Saturn Black have claims.

(5) Captain Burglar finds himself in midweek grade again with Chris Parnham on. Bumped into a couple of smart ones last start in Nowhiteflag and Holy Enchantment. Can be in the finish.

Tip: (2) Cheval De Vaga $4.45 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cheval De Vaga

Race 6 Glenroy Chaff Hcp (C1) (1600m) 8:15pm (AEDT)
1. Count Grundy (11) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: R W Price		6.5		6	6.3
2. Comealilbitcloser (5) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (59.5kg) T: L P Luciani		4.2		4.2	4.55
3. Kasonori (8) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (59.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller		9.5		9.5	8.5
4. Act Innocent (4) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (58kg) T: Raymond Vincent		14		17	16.8
5. Lady Of Babylon (3) J: Brad Parnham (57.5kg) T: V A Brockman		11		11	10.2
6. Rogues Point (9) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: M W Bairstow		31		34	28
7. Constant Dreaming (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant		2.7		2.8	2.7
8. Apache Rabbit (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54.5kg) T: John Doyle		61		51	45
9. Dynamic Force (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54.5kg) T: Meryl Hayley		19		26	18.4
10. Belafonte Boy (6) J: Ms Lisa Staples (54kg) T: D Miller		91		101	101
11. Global Ruler (1) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: Andrew Dickson		19		16	16

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 8:17pm (AEDT)

Think this is basically a two-horse race.

(7) Constant Dreaming was good on debut at Northam behind Hot Blooded, and the rider CJP was questioned about his tactics given he ran up backsides the length of the straight. He atoned for that with victory aboard her last start at Pinjarra. Gets back from the gate here but the mile will definitely suit and she looks the one to beat.

(2) Comealilbitcloser is the main danger, coming off a good run for 2^nd last start over 1400m. He looks to be crying out for the mile now and should enjoy a good run midfield once again. He’s a hard horse to trust given he’s won just one race and run 2^nd seven times, but he’ll be right in the finish again.

Tip: (7) Constant Dreaming $2.80 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Race 7 Seacorp (Rs0ly) (1600m) 8:50pm (AEDT)
1. Our Idyll (12) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (60kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson		26		34	29
2. Downforce (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59.5kg) T: N D Parnham		3.6		3.8	3.75
3. Chief Archer (1) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: Jesse Byrne		17		16	17.6
4. Yangtze Rapids (11) J: Patrick Carbery (57.5kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson		31		41	37
5. Fashion Queen (9) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: A G Durrant		2.25		2.1	2.2
6. Uncle Lino (8) J: Taj Dyson (57kg) T: Raymond Vincent		26		31	26.5
7. Off Wego (7) J: Ben Kennedy (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant		9		10	8.6
8. Summit Trail (10) J: Keshaw Dhurun (55kg) T: Meryl Hayley		19		21	20.5
9. Sunday Gin (5) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (54.5kg) T: Raymond Vincent		126		101	101
10. Trade Prize (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (54.5kg) T: Campbell Mccallum		34		34	29.5
11. Golden Bonney (4) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: Ms J Mclaughlin		9.5		12	9.6
12. Praying With God (2) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms S L Miller		67		81	75

Odds Last Updated: December 15, 2021, 8:52pm (AEDT)

(2) Downforce finds his race today. Surely this is his day. It’s been 13 starts since he last won but the majority of that has been in Saturday grade and Neville Parnham places him perfectly here back to a No-Metro-Win midweek race. He was beaten a nose in Saturday grade last time out so should find this easier.

(8) Summit Trail looks the value at double figure odds. His run first up was very good, beaten 0.5L at Northam. He’s never placed in seven goes when fresh, but has placed in four from six when second up. Has a good record at the distance and is a definite each way chance.

(5) Fashion Queen won first up in Geraldton and has run 2^nd in two subsequent starts. Obvious claims.

(7) Off Wego and (11) Golden Bonney not hopeless.

Tip: (2) Downforce $3.10 Ladbrokes

Value: (8) Summit Trail $12 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Downforce, 0.5 units WIN Summit Trail