Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 26th

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 2:07pm (AEDT)

Reluctant to get involved early in the day here, with Fabergino’s brother (3) Nowhiteflag currently $1.90. He won well enough at Northam last start, but the horse that ran 2nd missed the start and was only beaten a length. They did gap the rest of the field by 5L so they may both be above average, but I think he’s well and truly short enough now, especially given there’s a fair bit of speed on paper.

(2) Ghost Who Walks resumes from a spell and has talent. The form behind the likes of Son Son from last prep reads very well.

(7) Crypto Queen was well backed on debut, jumped straight to the front and won fairly comfortably. Can measure up here.

Tip: (3) Nowhiteflag $1.90 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

This is a wide open race.

There is a bit of confusion over the horse I’m keen on here, which is (10) Arracity. Some publications have it scratched, other places have it in the field and has been backed from $19 into $6.00. We’ll see what happens on race day. I think the 1000m is probably 400m of her best distance, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see her be very competitive here. She showed a bit of ability last prep. Her only start over 1000m came at her second start, where she came from the back of the field and flew home, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting. She was only beaten 1.3L that day. She eventually broke her maiden over 1400m at Bunbury but she probably should have more than one win to her name, she’s just been very unlucky in a few of her races. Trialled well leading into this, draws well in barrier 4 and although the distance is a query, I was very happy to back her at $19, but that price seems gone, or she might be scratched. Will take Betfair SP if she lines up.

(11) Universal Star is an interesting runner having her first start for the Michael Lane stable. She’s been off the track for more than a year but she can improve in this yard.

(2) Forest War drops in grade and should find this a much more suitable race. His effort last prep over the 1000m at Ascot behind Leica Jaguar and Mood Swings would see him very hard to beat if he were able to repeat it here.

(3) Johnny Angel makes his WA debut and Chris Parnham goes straight on.

Tip: (10) Arracity E/W Betfair

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Arracity

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 3:17pm (AEDT)

(8) Astrape is due for a win. She’s placed in all four starts and has been beaten by Flying Missile in both starts this prep. That horse has won four of its five starts this prep with her only defeat coming in the Karrakatta Plate. The form is very strong and the drop back to a midweek race should find her too strong.

(6) Magic To Exceed has trialled well on two occasions leading into is debut here. Should be around the mark.

Pike goes on (4) Gidday Tiger for Dion Luciani. He’s had two winners from three rides for this stable so his booking looks a good lead. Double figure odds may prove to be value.

Tip: (8) Astrape $2.20 Bet365

Value: (4) Gidday Tiger $11 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Astrape, 0.5 units WIN Gidday Tiger

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 3:52pm (AEDT)

Pace only looks moderate here which is probably why (1) Lacevinsky has been $15 into $8.00 in early betting, as he drops in grade and may be able to dictate.

I’ll be sticking with (9) Piccola Signora though. She was enormous in defeat two starts ago and no doubt should have won that race. She then lined up in a Graduation Handicap on a Saturday behind Sentimental Queen who has won both starts this prep. Drops back to a Wednesday here, with the only query being how far she ends up back in the field from the wide gate.

(4) Pearls From Heaven has been good in both starts this prep. Might be looking for more ground now but she has won third up previously and on her last effort, should be right around the mark.

(5) Shoes Of Ekraar resumes without a trial, but that’s not unusual for him. He’s won twice from four starts when first up previously so he has to be included.

Tip: (9) Piccola Signora $3.95 Sportsbetting

Saver: (4) Pearls From Heaven $6.10 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Piccola Signora, 0.5 units WIN Pearls From Heaven

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 4:27pm (AEDT)

(1) Bragwell appreciated the soft conditions last start when upsetting the likes of Tri For Us and Perfect Gem at Ascot. That form has already stood up with Tri For Us coming out on Saturday and winning easily. He’s understandably been well backed here on the back of that, but I think he’s short enough at $2.30 now. As I mentioned, that win last start was on a rain-affected track, and now both of his wins have been on soft ground. He’s still yet to break it for a win on good ground from nine attempts.

(3) Divine Quest will be my bet in the race, on a place line. She’s run 2nd in her past two starts, which followed a luckless first up run when trapped wide throughout. She ran 2nd to Tri For Us last start and as mentioned above, that form is strong. She draws well here and should be right in the finish.

(8) Rebel Heart is scary. Gets Parnham on first up. The 1650m fresh will be no issue – he won first up last prep over a similar distance last preparation. Some query over the strength of his form and the fact he tackles a class 3 race as a class 1 horse, but he won’t be far away.

(5) Pretty Friar next best.

Tip: (3) Divine Quest (place) $3.10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit PLACE Divine Quest

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 5:02pm (AEDT)

A couple I’m interested in here.

I expect (2) Treat Yo Self to appreciate getting back onto firmer ground here. She won well second up on firm ground at Ascot and while she hasn’t been beaten far in her two starts since then, I think she has the ability to go a bit better on a good track.

(6) Lady Duckworth won her maiden two starts ago and then absolutely destroyed her rivals last start when stepping up to Class 1 company. That was over 2300m and was six weeks ago, so there’s a small query about why she hasn’t raced since then, but she has had a trial in between. Chris Parnham rode her in the trial and keeps the ride here, and if she repeats what she did last start, she’s going to be mighty hard to beat.

Pike goes on (5) Gee Force so he will be popular.

Tip: (6) Lady Duckworth $5.00 TAB

Saver: (2) Treat Yo Self $3.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lady Duckworth, 0.5 units WIN Treat Yo Self

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 5:37pm (AEDT)

This is a pretty typical set up from Neville Parnham with (2) Captain Burglar here. He tends to race these horses in Saturday grade before dropping them back to midweek company with a claim. The Burglar ran in a Graduation Handicap two starts ago, where he ran 3rd, before finishing last in a 3YO Handicap behind Sheza Chalmer. Now drops back to a Class 1 on a Wednesday. He ran 2nd in a similar race to this three starts back. 

(6) Precautionary ran last behind Acromantula first up but that was a decent race. Back in grade to a Class 1 second up, this should be much easier. No surprise to see the go forward from the wide gate today.

(9) Jay Dee was very well backed first up but sat three-wide the trip and still managed to run 3rd. She’s got some ability and you have to respect the market move for her first up. Tricky gate again today and I query whether her best runs have been on soft ground.

(12) Verdandi can be included at big odds.

Tip: (2) Captain Burglar $4.20 Bet365

Value: (6) Precautionary $11 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Captain Burglar, 0.5 units WIN Precautionary

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 6:17pm (AEDT)

Really only think there is two chances in this race and with $3 available for the pair of them, I’m happy to back one and save on the other.

(9) Perfect Gem has always been well thought of. She didn’t quite put things together in her first preparation, but she’s starting to deliver this prep. She produced a very good first up win at Northam, where she showed a good turn of foot to win hands and heels only at Northam. She then went to a very strong No-Metro-Win race last start, where she was beaten 0.3L by Bragwell and Tri For Us. That form has already proven to be strong. Draws well here with Pike on and think this is an easier race than the one she contested last time, so she should be very hard to hold out.

(3) Written Matter did a very good job to win a Class 1 on debut. It’s not easy to win out of your grade at your very first start, so clearly he’s got a fair bit of talent. He has to carry more weight today and does draw an outside gate, but he’ll go forward and he’ll be the one Perfect Gem has to run down.

Backing Perfect Gem, saving Written Matter.

Tip: (9) Perfect Gem $3.00 Bet365

Saver: (3) Written Matter $3.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Perfect Gem, 1 unit WIN Written Matter

Odds Last Updated: May 26, 2021, 6:52pm (AEDT)

An open way to end the card, but I’m going to stick with the horse I backed in a similar race a couple weeks back at Ascot to end the card, and that was (1) Guns Of Navarone who saluted at double figure odds. It was a typical Neville Parnham set up for this horse. He raced in a Listed race, then a 66+, 72+, 78+, 78+, 72+ and then straight back down to a No-Metro-Win race on a Wednesday. He carried 59kg that day and got the job done courtesy of an outstanding ride from Laqdar Ramoly, who managed to slot him in one-one from barrier 9. He goes up to 61.5kg today, but he’s drawn well in barrier 2 and he remains in the same grade as what he won in last start. Drops back to 1000m but his record at this distance is good, and I think he is over the odds at $11 again.

(4) Masquerade gets Chris Parnham on and can be included at $21. He hasn’t been beaten far in two runs in this grade this prep.

(5) King’s Authority comes out of a strong form reference behind Panzdown last start. He’s always a place chance in races like this.

(6) Drinkwhatyoulike also comes out of that race behind Panzdown. Pike goes on today and this stable is flying, but well and truly short enough at $2.25.

(7) Gessato a blow out chance first up.

Tip: (1) Guns Of Navarone E/W $11/$3.30 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Guns Of Navarone