Bendigo Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 28th

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

 

A 14-horse field of maidens, the favourite being a five-start 7yo who does look to bring the best form. I speak of (4) Hostile Takeover who comes off a 2^nd placing to Miss Conduct, who started $10 and ran okay at Caulfield last Saturday. He should appreciate the big track and will get his chance to run on provided the track is playing fairly.

(10) Allibor was good on debut when well backed, beating (14) Zorro’s Ghost home.

More than happy to watch here and gauge the early track pattern because this is very tough.

Top Pick: (4) Hostile Takeover $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

 

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

A bit more clarity here, with (7) Better Kick returning from a spell after two career starts. He debuted down the straight and ran on soundly for 4^th in a handy race, before starting $2.90 favourite at Ballarat and failing behind Albarado and Alcyone. Better Kick won a recent jumpout, draws beautifully in barrier 4 and with natural improvement from his first prep looks hard to beat.

Big watch on (6) Al Badr on debut for Lindsay Park. This I Am Invincible gelding looked good in a jumpout and draws well for Jamie Mott.

(3) Lindhout has looked good at the jumpouts but gets Carleen Hefel on debut and seems short enough as favourite.

Top Pick: (7) Better Kick $4.4 TAB

Value: (6) Al Badr $16 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Better Kick, 0.25 units WIN AL Badr

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

In an open race, (11) Ziavera looks the horse to beat. She started favourite in the same grade first up on a heavy track. In fact, most of her form is on very wet tracks. The firmest deck she’s seen was a soft 5 at start number 2, where she bolted in by nearly 4 lengths. Her 3^rd placing behind Splendoronthegrass is easily good enough for this and she maps well from barrier 6.

(7) All About Fashion has had one career start on the synthetic and was far too good for her rivals. The form out of the race is average and she switches to turf here first up, but she clearly has some talent.

(5) Dee Keepa scares me first up for Rodd/Smith. She was tipped out as a big winner on the synthetic, but her turf form was still quite good. With the camp, you’ve got to respect any market moves and I’ll be saving on her if she remains firm.

Top Pick: (11) Ziavera $6 Bet365

Danger: (5) Dee Keepa $5.5 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ziavera, 0.5 units WIN Dee Keepa

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Great race, and I expect it to be a very solid form reference for the rest of the Spring heading towards the smaller carnivals. (5) Overkill is the horse to beat first up. He’s 3/4 in his career, and the form around his last two wins reads well. Despite being narrow margins, he’s accounted for horses such as Librate, Beehunter, Splendoronthegrass and Ocular, all whom have high benchmark/listed form scattered throughout their CV’s. With the 1100m start at Bendigo similar to Caulfield, there’s a long run and only one turn to the finish, so the wide draw shouldn’t be an issue.

(2) Hi Stranger is a good horse and took on some strong races last prep in listed grade, including a 2^nd in the Creswick Stakes. If he’s ready to go he’ll be flying at the end.

(12) Rock Prophet is the current narrow favourite coming off a 2.5L 7^th in the group 2 Bobbie Lewis. That was a very bunched finish and is perhaps a bit overplayed in the market- the start before he was beaten 4.4L into 12^th behind Diamond Effort but the big tick here is Kah replacing German.

(1) Grandview Avenue is flying and will be in it for a long way. This is his toughest test yet but he’s hard to knock. Going with Overkill and Hi Stranger in a quality contest.

Top Pick: (5) Overkill $4.2 Palmerbet

Danger: (2) Hi Stranger $7 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Overkill, 1 unit WIN Hi Stranger

Odds Last Updated: December 14, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The favourite (2) Far Enough looks short enough here coming off a narrow maiden win over 1000m. He steps up to 1300m and rises 4.5kg in weight.

(8) Hindaam has had a freshen up after failing in the Jim Moloney behind eventual Guineas winner Odeum. She was well backed that day to start $7.50 coming off a dominant synthetic win. They seem to think she won’t handle the wet, but with minimal rain predicted I wouldn’t be surprised to see us on a good 4.

(3) Make It Quick was impressive on debut as favourite, leading throughout to win by 3 lengths. He put 4L on a horse called Rock Of Kryptonite who had some solid city form. Drawn barrier 3, he can lead again and looks a good price at the double figure quote.

(12) Derive ran 2^nd in all three starts last prep but the form certainly reads well, the most recent run a 3L defeat to Caulfield Guineas 2^nd placegetter Aysar. Her jumpout was solid when well beaten by Xilong.

Happy to take on Far Enough. Hindaam can improve back in grade and Make It Quick looks talented.

Top Pick: (8) Hindaam $9 Sportsbet

Value: (3) Make It Quick $11 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hindaam, 1 unit WIN Make It Quick

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Tricky one with (2) Capodanno making his Australian debut. He’s been well backed early, likely due to his SP profile in New Zealand. The 1300m might be a touch short but he’s been racing in similar grade as a short priced favourite.

(3) Chipsaredown is drawn very wide but will come across and potentially take up the running, coming off two consecutive wins.

The best performed horse in the race is (5) Heirborn. First up last prep he started $2.05 and ran 2^nd to Paperboy, which is solid form. His fresh form is generally very solid and in an open race he might be the way to go.

Top Pick: (5) Heirborn $7.5 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Heirborn

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Good edition of the Bendigo Cup and plenty of angles to line up. (3) Pondus is the international and if he’s ready to go he’ll be very hard to beat, despite the wide draw. I’ve honestly got no idea what they do from the barrier- he’s fairly adaptable in his racing pattern and has raced on speed or back in the field. His form reads very well, with the two recognisable benchmarks being a 2^nd to Addeybb and a 5L win over Aktau. He hasn’t won on a good track before, but his 1.5L 3^rd to a horse called Desert Encounter on a good track is solid form.

The map horse, and big improver looks to be (4) Inverloch on the quick backup from Friday Night. Drawn barrier 2, he’ll go straight to the front and should roll along at a decent clip. From all reports, he looked very fit last start and he did win an Easter Cup on a 7 day backup earlier this year.

(6) Zebrowski put in a much improved showing in the Herbert Power last start after a couple of disappointing runs in Sydney. He’d be hoping for rain because I do think he’s much better with some give.

(13) Saracen Knight is the interesting one. He delivered a huge win for us two back over 2000m, relishing the fast tempo and finishing very strongly, before perhaps being ridden upside down last start when unable to sprint. With a quieter ride and a stronger tempo he can bounce back, dropping 3kg in weight. The market absolutely loved him last start, so it’ll be interesting to see what they do here.

Happy to back Pondus and Inverloch for good results and have something on Saracen Knight as a smaller result.

Top Pick: (3) Pondus $5 TAB

Danger: (13) Saracen Knight $6 TAB

Value: (4) Inverloch $14 Pointsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Pondus, 1 unit WIN Saracen Knight, 1 unit WIN Inverloch

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Two that interest me here, the first being (1) Starouz who is coming off a 4^th in a 5 horse field as the $1.90 favourite. She laid out badly after leading there which is a bit of a worry, but she drops in grade for this and goes Walker to Kah, which is a huge jockey change. I think she’s better on good tracks rather than the soft 7 last start, and her 2^nd placing two back to Sovereign Award obviously reads very well for this. She should be able to find a handy spot with relative ease from barrier 7.

The other horse I could back is (5) Cassius who comes here 2^nd up. He’s another that I think prefers good tracks, so his effort first up on a heavy track when running on from last to be beaten 2.35L was good. Draws barrier 2 here so he’ll be able to settle much closer, and he generally improves lengths 2^nd up.

(3) Think ‘n’ Fly next best but I think he’s looking for 2000m now after a stout effort last start over the mile. Keen to back Starouz and Cassius, the latter being my best value of the day.

Top Pick: (1) Starouz $6 Palmerbet

Value: (5) Cassius $13 Bet365 

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Starouz, 1.5 units WIN Cassius

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Hoping Kah can continue her excellent form in the last with (11) Merchant Of Venice. This horse comes here 3^rd up and is ready to win. First up he finished 6^th, beaten 1.9L by Challiot, running the fastest last 200m of the race. Last start he ran well through the worse ground at Hamilton for 3^rd and gets a huge jockey switch here.

(5) Highclass Harry drops back to the 1400m which I think suits, given he’s 3 from 5 at the distance. He drops 5kg from last start and is another that gets a significant jockey change.

(9) Sam Slick isn’t completely hopeless fresh despite only placing once at the distance. Plenty of other chances in an open race but I think Kah can get Merchant Of Venice home from an inside draw, and Highclass Harry will be in it a long way.

Top Pick: (11) Merchant Of Venice $4.5 Bet365

Value: (5) Highclass Harry $11 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Merchant Of Venice, 0.5 units WIN Highclass Harry