Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 28th

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Can’t say I’m overly keen to get involved in the Class 5 races to open the card, but I think (3) Speedy Optimist is a decent price here at $7.50. He’s had a year off the track after injuring a suspensory and also colic surgery. He resumes tonight over 1000m, which is a small query given he’s run up to 1600m previously, but his recent trials have been sharp. He drops into Class 5 tonight, Purton is booked and with any luck from barrier 11, he could go close.

I’ll be saving on the favourite (6) UW Brother who draws barrier 1, which should be a big positive for him. Moreira sticks with him after he ran 3rd over this distance at Sha Tin last start. He’s failed in four attempts at Happy Valley leading into tonight but he gets all things in his favour to overcome that hoodoo.

(9) Flying Monkey has been around the mark in his past two starts but he’s won just two of his 47 starts.

The value could be (8) Aurora Steed for Casper Fownes and Karis Teetan. He drew wide and had to go back first up, he jumped poorly and was always chasing last start, so if he can jump clean and settle closer from 3 tonight, he might run a good race at $11.

Top pick: (3) Speedy Optimist $7.50 Bet365

Danger: (6) UW Brother $2.70 Unibet

Value: (8) Aurora Steed $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Speedy Optimist, 0.5 units WIN Aurora Steed

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

A few good chances here. (1) Yes We Can looks ready to win, having run 4th at Sha Tin first up and then 2nd last time out. He draws better tonight in barrier 3 and now gets to 1800m third up. He ran the second-fastest final 400m of the race last start, bettered only by the winner, so the extra trip should suit.

(11) Green Generation has also been running well but just finds a few too sharp. He ran the equal-fastest 800m-400m split last start and the third-fastest final 400m. Zac Purton goes on tonight and he draws well in barrier 5 so there’s no reason he can’t be right in the finish again.

I think the value in the race is (8) Master Roman who comes out of the same race as Yes We Can, where he ran 4th. He  ran a quicker 800m-400m split than Yes We Can, but was home marginally slower for the final 400m. He was only first up on that occasion though, whereas Yes We Can was second up. He gets a senior rider taking over from the apprentice tonight and $11 looks a good price.

The favourite (5) Great Smart comes up with barrier 1 and is knocking on the door but the concern has to be his poor record at Happy Valley.

Top pick: (1) Yes We Can $5.00 Sportsbet

Next best: (11) Green Generation $5.50 BlueBet

Value: (8) Master Roman $11 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Yes We Can, 1 unit WIN Green Generation, 0.5 unit WIN Master Roman

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Tough race. (1) Bullish Brother has a good record at the course and distance and he comes into this off a last-start win here. He gets a slightly trickier draw tonight and carries more weight but he did win at this stage of his last preparation.

(2) What A Legend drops in Class back to Class 4 and comes up with barrier 1, which is a big plus over this track and distance. Whether his form is actually good enough for him to take advantage of the drop in Class is the issue. He lines up in a strong race so even though I want to back him with those factors in his favour, I think I’ll have to sit out.

(3) Lucky Quality is knocking on the door and Moreira takes over tonight. He’s placed in all three starts this prep and Joao is on for the first time this campaign tonight, and when he teams up with Casper Fownes you always have to respect their chances. He can be a bit of a barrier rogue though so at the odds he is short enough.

The value looks to be (8) Gintoki who ran 2nd first up to Pegasus Glory at Sha Tin. The horse that ran 3rd there was Whiskey Neat, who then ran 2nd to Bullish Brother at its next start. So we can tie in Gintoki to Bullish Brother that way, and with the positive draw tonight, Gintoki does appeal at $7.00.

Top pick: (2) What A Legend $4.20 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Gintoki $7.00 BlueBet

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Another very tricky race. (1) Harrier Jet has run well in his first two starts this prep and he now gets Purton on third up. His last win came with Purton in the saddle so it’s notable that he’s back on tonight. The query is the form out of that race from last start. The horse that ran 2nd failed at his next start, while Jazz Steed who ran 4th then ran 4th again. The barrier also makes life tough on the C+3 course, but $7.50 also looks a decent each way price.

(2) Whiskey Neat is favourite but I thought he had his chance last start, where he sat 2nd throughout and held his spot, while the winner Bullish Brother came from behind him. Keep an eye on the result from the race prior to this as Bullish Brother goes around again, along with Gintoki and Carry The Diamond who he also has form around.

(4) Happy Time ran a good race off a higher mark first up last prep. He has the awkward gate to contend with but he’s trialled well.

(7) Split Of A Second draws gate 1 after being posted wide throughout last start, and (5) Sprint Forward isn’t hopeless either.

Top pick: (1) Harrier Jet E/W $7.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Harrier Jet

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Very keen to bet here. (2) Naboo Star was my best bet first up and Casper Fownes said he was a bit underdone, but he flew home from off the speed to win. If that was him underdone, then there’s no reason he can’t win again tonight. He carries more weight tonight and the C+3 course can play on-speed, but I think he’s the horse to beat.

The danger – and the other horse I’ll be backing – is the Size/Moreira horse (7) Leap Of Faith. He won well first up in Class 4 carrying top weight from the outside gate at Sha Tin, but failed to replicate that last start when he was the short-priced favourite. I’d forgive him for that and give him another chance tonight at the better odds of $5.50.

Top pick: (2) Naboo Star $3.40 Unibet

Also backing: (7) Leap Of Faith $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Naboo Star, 1 unit WIN Leap Of Faith

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

I’ve got this between the two last-start winners, (1) Regency Master and (3) Faithful Trinity.

Regency Master sat 5th in the run and powered home over the top, while Faithful Trinity led throughout. The former draws awkwardly in barrier 11 tonight so it’s hard to know where he will get to, while Faifthful Trinity should be able to find the front again from gate 2.

On the C+3 course, I’m leaning the way of Faithful Trinity, who has returned this campaign in career-best form and with just a 1kg rise in the weights, he should be able to give this a good shake once again.

Top pick: (3) Faithful Trinity $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1 unit E/W Faithful Trinity

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

Pretty confident this is a two or three horse race but the barrier draws make it tough to bet confidently.

(6) Sky Darci may well be the best horse in the race but he resumes from barrier 12 tonight which won’t make things easy. He’s got a good record from his five career starts but where he gets to from that gate is the query, especially given he’s $2.50.

I was on (7) Hardly Swears last start and I really liked the run, and he comes up with barrier 1 tonight. He’s not the sort of horse that has terrific gate speed so there’s no real guarantee he can make use of that gate, but if he can sit a bit closer he’s going to be right in the finish.

The value could be the Whyte/Purton horse (1) Storm Warnings. He didn’t do much in his first two starts in Hong Kong but that’s not unusual for imported horses. He was ridden by an apprentice in those two starts but he gets Purton on straight away tonight, which is an ominous sign. $12 could be over the odds.

Top pick: (7) Hardly Swears $4.60 Unibet

Danger: (6) Sky Darci $2.50 Bet365

Value: (1) Storm Warnings $12 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.75 units WIN Hardly Swears, 0.25 units WIN Storm Warnings

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

This looks a nice race for (1) Tornado Twist and he looks a good price at $7.00. He drops out of Class 2 company behind the likes of Lucky Express and drops back into Class 3. He’s been ridden by Alfie Chan both starts this campaign but with the drop in class, Purton goes straight on. He draws well in barrier 4 and can go close.

(9) Le Terroir was very well backed first up but couldn’t make up the ground, however he made up for it last start with a strong win. Whether the track will play to those coming from off the speed tonight is the query, but he’s gone very well in his first two starts for the new stable and he does possess a very good record at this track and distance.

(10) Harmony N Home draws gate 1 which is a big advantage over this track and distance.

Top pick: (1) Tornado Twist $7.00 BlueBet

Next best: (9) Le Terroir $8.00 BlueBet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Tornado Twist, 0.5 units WIN Le Terroir

Odds Last Updated: October 29, 2020, 12:32am (AEDT)

(2) Reliable Team has a good record at Happy Valley, with four wins from eight starts at the track. He’s won one of his two starts at the track and distance. I’m hoping he can settle close to the speed from barrier 5 and improves from his first up run. With the likely track pattern on the C+3 course, he should take some beating here.

The favourite (1) Columbus County draws barrier 1 but he tends to do his racing off the speed. Moreira goes on for Casper Fownes, as has been the story so far this season. He is the horse to beat but if he’s spotting them a big head-start, he might leave a bit much to do.

(11) Tianchi Monster is in the same boat as Columbus County. He’s returned to his best form this prep but whether the track will suit him is the issue.

Top pick: (2) Reliable Team $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Reliable Team