Caulfield Cup Day Racing Tips: Saturday, October 17th

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Hard to go past the favourite in the first, with (3) Power Scheme looking hard to beat. He ran first up here over 1400m and the run was very good, copping a slight check 200m out but running on very nicely for 3^rd behind Rich Hips. The 1700m here 2^nd up is perfect, he draws to do no work midfield from barrier 2 with Zahra sticking, and his form last prep was clearly the best of this field. He ran 2^nd, beaten 0.1L in a Mornington Guineas when 2^nd up last prep, before taking on a pair of group 3’s in Sydney, running 3^rd to Entente and Bottega on a heavy track which is outstanding form.

Pretty keen on Power Scheme to kick off the day, but if there were to be an upset (1) Seberate is very consistent and maps well again whilst (4) Sukoot is in form and likes the wet.

Top Pick: (3) Power Scheme – $3.30 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN on Power Scheme

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Much tougher race here, with the favourite (2) Rainbiel coming off two impressive wins at Benalla and Kyneton. The performances were that of a good horse, but I think she’s a bit short here after drawing wide and more pressure on paper.

I think (4) Anitra comes out of a good form race behind Poland and Grandslam. We’ve seen Grandslam come out and place in a Caulfield Guineas, Albarado run a very good 3^rd in the Super Impose and Embolism bolted in on Wednesday. Anitra had every favour there when getting a lovely run but she did finish 4^th, beaten 0.5L. Her run prior over 1600m was good behind a couple of smart fillies and at the price I thought she was a genuine each way hope here.

(7) Incredulous Dream is six weeks between runs stepping up to 1400m for the first time which is a concern, but the stable should have her right and she’s in the race at odds.

(3) Yosemite comes back in grade from the Tranquil Star, where she was comfortably beaten by some good fillies. This seems a bit of an afterthought and barrier one could be tricky, but she’s certainly good enough.

Top Pick: (4) Anitra – $17 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN on Anitra

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I think there’s a great bet here at double figures in the form of (4) Just A Tribute, who is my best value bet of the day. He comes out of the same race as Anitra and despite starting $61 there, his run was enormous, coming from last to finish 5^th, beaten 0.7L in the quickest sectionals of the race. He was the only horse to break 34 seconds for the last 600m and whilst that was a bm64 and this is a stakes race, the quality is very similar. Just A Tribute drew barrier 8 with Liam Riordan on last start, and switches to barrier 1 with Mark Zahra aboard here, which is a huge jockey change. He should be able to settle closer and with some luck in running he’s a huge chance.

(6) Endanger does look the danger and will be better suited at 1400m at Caulfield after getting a bit lost at The Valley last start.

He looks the saver, whereas I’m happy to risk (2) Osamu down from Sydney who brings strong form lines but was fading late over 1200m last start and might struggle to run the 1400m here.

Just A Tribute has been well backed since markets opened but I still think the $11 available is value and I’m happy to play.

Top Pick: (4) Just A Tribute – $11 at Bet365

Saver: (6) Endanger – $4.45 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN on Just A Tribute, 0.5 units WIN on Endanger

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Good race heading towards the Derby and I think (2) Albarado is the horse to beat. He had to make a long, sustained run from back in the field which was difficult to do on the day at Flemington. At the 200m mark he was travelling as the winner, but he just peaked on his run stepping up from 1400m to 1800m. Up to 2000m now is ideal, Zahra sticks and a soft track will be in his favour. He’ll get back again but I’m confident he comes out of the best form line.

Also in that race was (3) The Pres who started $151 but had no luck whatsoever. He was only 1.5L off Albarado and really charged over the last 200m, which was the 2^nd fastest of the race. He’s a monstrous horse with a big stride and will be suited up to 2000m with Bowman taking the reins. I’d prefer him back at Flemington but with time to wind up he can run a big race.

The one bringing different a different form line is (8) Redwood Shadow who comes out of a Ballarat maiden where he won impressively over 1600m. That was a soft win and up to 2000m will be ideal. The Derby Trial form looks a bit suspect for mine.

(10) Let’s Karaka Deel was very unlucky in that race but looks short enough here at $4. I’ve got Albarado on top, but at the odds I’m happy to cover a few bases with The Pres and Redwood Shadow, effectively taking around $2.75 as a dutch bet.

Top Pick: (2) Albarado – $5.50 at Pointsbet

Next Best: (8) Redwood Shadow – $8.50 at Bet365

Value: (3) The Pres – $11 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Albarado, 1 unit WIN Redwood Shadow, 1 unit WIN The Pres

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The fillies’ time to shine and (3) Starelle is the horse to beat. She’d been running okay in some of the lead up runs but really improved with the blinkers on last start, coming from a mile back to run 2^nd by a head to Thermosphere, who had some quality Sydney form. The step up to 2000m will be perfect, Olly replaces Moor, and it’s hard to see anything turning the tables out of that race.

(5) Silhouette was tight for room in that race and a bit unlucky but did have cover from the wind and I don’t think she was going well enough to win.

(4) Succeed Indeed was in a similar boat but I thought had her chance if good enough.

I’m happy to ignore the Oaks Trial lead up won by (6) Pensato for the most part, which looks inferior to the other fillies in the race.

The one out of that race that will stay the journey and has to be respected at huge odds is (7) Art Glass. She was soundly beaten in that Oaks Trial but did win a maiden over 2265m last start at Geelong on heavy ground, so she’ll definitely beat a few home that won’t run the 2000m. The interesting thing to note is Willo takes the ride, which is very rare for a horse at $51 on a Saturday. She’s not hopeless and will be a result, but pretty keen Starelle.

Top Pick: (3) Starelle – $4.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (7) Art Glass – $51 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Starelle, 0.5 units E/W Art Glass

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(3) Fituese looks hard to beat here 2^nd up. She produced a huge run first up to knock off Hilo and Masked Crusader, coming from near last on the turn with 58kg and getting up on the line. She’d trialled very well leading in and looks set for big campaign off that run, and I think she’ll be winning here. Fituese won a stakes race 2^nd up last prep as the $1.75 favourite and Hilo probably should’ve won its next start when flashing late from last.

That form ties in quite easily with the 2^nd favourite (2) California Zimbol who beat Hilo 2^nd up last prep over 1200m. She did get all the favours that day but is obviously right up to the level required. California Zimbol ran well first up, splitting Villami and Pandemic, but again she got the perfect run following Villami everywhere and was unable to overhaul him. They clearly look the main two chances, but I think Fituese has more upside and can be a group class sprinter this prep, so I’m happy to side with her. Perhaps the slight knock is a soft track, but she did run 0.5L 2^nd to Esperance on a heavy 8 at the end of last prep and he’s an open handicap male sprinter so I can’t see it being an issue.

The one at huge odds in the race that I’m keen to spec is (9) Des Moines. She comes here first up and I can’t work out why she’s as much as $41. First up last prep she started $3.90 and ran 3^rd to Diamond Effort, who just ran 2^nd in a Schillaci last week. Des Moines then ran a good 3^rd to Jamaican Hurry which ties in with a lot of the Melbourne mares here, and last start before a spell she pulled up lame as a $3.40 chance behind Phoenix Global and Alfa Oro. The market loves this horse and off her SP’s in good races last prep there’s no way she should be $41. Very keen to back Fituese and Des Moines.

Top Pick: (3) Fituese – $2.80 at TAB

Value: (9) Des Moines – $41 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Fituese, 0.5 E/W Des Moines

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Great race the Caulfield Sprint over 1000m and I found it near impossible to tip against (6) Alfa Oro. He’s just a winning machine who makes his own luck on speed and runs very strong times. They opted to come here rather than tackle the group 2 Schillaci last week and I think it was the right move. I was happy to back him at $4.50 there at WFA with 58.5kg, and he gets in here on the minimum with 54kg which looks very enticing. The splits he ran last start over the 955m measured up very favourably to the group one Moir over 1000m on the same night, a soft track will be in his favour, he’s 1/1 at Caulfield and over 1000m and with the weight I can’t see anything beating him.

In that Moir Stakes of course was (2) Fabergino. Unfortunately her race was over after 100m when she jumped awkwardly and settled in an awful position back in the field, never once looking comfortable cluttered up around horses. If she jumps better expect Childs to be very aggressive and get her to her favoured role out in front, either crossing or sitting outside Alfa Oro. A soft track is still an unknown with her, and she has to concede 4kg as a mare to Alfa Oro, which could be too much. She’s a very good sprinter and they should really scorch the turf here.

(7) Garner is probably next best but would need everything to go his way, and (3) Graff with the O’Brien camp fresh is a scary thought, but it is Graff and he simply doesn’t win, especially at 1000m. Keen on Alfa Oro who is my best of the day yet again.

Top Pick: (6) Alfa Oro – $2.10 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 5 units (max bet) WIN Alfa Oro

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Probably the toughest race of the day here, with (9) Windstorm on the quick backup from last week. He was backed off the map there and despite settling a long way back, Pike got stuck into him a long way out and once he balanced up in the straight, he was too classy for them. This is a much better field than last week, with multiple group one winners engaged compared to the likes of Phaistos and Archedemus, who were both first up in a strongly run race yet weren’t beaten far. There looks to be plenty of pace here again and drawn barrier 10, Windstorm will get a long way back again. I know he won last start, but I still believe he’s better off a slow tempo, because he had to chase a long way out last week and it’ll be harder to reel in some better horses here. The trouble is finding what beats him because it’s very open.

I thought (5) Gaulois could be a big improver from last start, where it sat outside the lead into the strong headwind, which was the worst place to map all day. He maps very nicely just behind the speed from barrier 3 and whilst he might need one more run, I thought his run last start was full of merit when starting $11.

Another Godolphin horse in that race, (10) Best Of Days, started $9.50 and after missing the start he railed through along the inside and finished 3^rd. I think that run has been completely overplayed because we saw so many winners or horses outrun their SP (Sierra Sue, Toffee Tongue) get the exact same run along the rails. Best Of Days had the flashing light run and I think he’s too short at $5.50 here, drawn barrier 11 at the Caulfield 1400m.

(4) Wild Planet will be right in the finish. He comes out of the Epsom Handicap last start and was only beaten 2.6L by Probabeel after a less than ideal run in transit. The start before that he beat home Funstar, and first up he was desperately unlucky behind Roheryn and Probabeel. I like the drop back to 1400m which I believe is his ideal distance, and he has run well in Melbourne before. Bowman takes the ride from barrier one and I think the three leaders will go at a solid clip, so there should be ample opportunity to get off the fence. Happy to have something on Wild Planet and Gaulois.

Top Pick: (4) Wild Planet – $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (5) Gaulois – $31 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Wild Planet, 0.5/1 units E/W Gaulois

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The feature event is the group one Caulfield Cup and it has delivered an outstanding field. For a runner-by-runner preview of the big race, complete with speed map, analysis, selections and betting strategy please click on the link below.

2020 Caulfield Cup Runner-by-Runner Preview

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

As always, these mares races are tough. I’ve narrowed it down to three chances, with the first being (1) Pretty Brazen. This mare is flying and was desperately unlucky last start in the Blazer when going to the line untested, beaten 2.8L. The start before that she ran 3^rd in the Rupert Clarke, and the start before that she knocked off Arcadia Queen. She loves the 1400m and with clear running should be right in the finish again. A genuinely soft track is unknown with her, however.

Beating her home there was (3) Perfect Jewel who was dropping back from 1600m to the 1400m and after getting a long way back, she ran home nicely for 6^th out wide, which wasn’t the spot to be on the day. I think she’s looking for a step up in trip now so I don’t love her staying at the 1400m, but she draws nicely in 3 and any rain around won’t be an issue whatsoever.

The one bringing different form lines is (4) Felicia who comes out of the How Now and Northwood Plume Stakes, both over 1200m. I thought she ran very well last start when sitting outside the leader and fighting on strongly, only to be bloused late by Fiesta who was given a beautiful ride and is a very good horse on her day. The leader there, Xilong, is a group 2 winner and Felicia beat her home by over 3L, so I think the form is just as good as the other mares. She tackles 1400m for the first time, but I can’t really see it troubling her and she’ll definitely be fit enough to do so. She also strikes a race with no other natural leader, so she should get a beautiful run on speed, and soft track won’t be an issue with her either.

All three mentioned are the same price in the market, but I’m happy to side with the different form line and beautiful map Felicia gets here.

Top Pick: (4) Felicia – $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Felicia