Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, October 17th

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Chris Waller looks to have a strong chance in the two-year-old race with (10) She’s All Class, who ran one of the fastest trials of the morning at Rosehill a couple weeks ago. Hugh Bowman rode her that day but is obviously in Melbourne, leaving Kerrin McEvoy to pick up the ride. She draws well in barrier 3 and looks a good chance of making her debut a winning one.

(7) Montana Flash also won a trial that same morning at Rosehill but was a touch under three seconds slower than She’s All Class. Trials don’t tell the full story but that’s some 15 lengths slower. They put the blinkers on him for the first time for race day though, which is a typical trick from this stable and normally works to good effect. He’s value at $14.

(11) Testimonial has trialled well without being let off the bridle yet. The draw is tricky but she looks to have plenty left up the sleeve for race day.

(6) Kalashnikov next best.

Top pick: (10) She’s All Class – $4.80 at Palmerbet

Value: (7) Montana Flash – $14 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN She’s All Class, 0.25 units WIN Montana Flash

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

This is a wide-open race and plenty depends on scratchings as we’ve got two runners high up in betting that are currently emergencies.

(7) Lady Demi returns from a lengthy spell here, first up off 37 weeks. She’s always around the mark in these races and has been unlucky not to win more than she has. She’s had six starts here at Randwick for a win and four 2nds. Whether she’s sharp enough against this quality field first up off such a break is the query, but she draws for a soft run and has proven her ability at this level before. She’s a bit of value at double figure odds.

(12) Emilette can come across from barrier 13 to take up a position and will be competitive. Notably, Greg Ryan comes to the city to ride her. She was good here four starts ago behind It’s Me.

(6) Depth That Varies was a sound winner first up at Scone despite having a bit go against him. He draws poorly here with the 3kg apprentice on but is capable.

(19) Blitzar and (20) Toto will change the complexion of the race if they get a run, so it’s hard to bet early here.

Top pick: (7) Lady Demi E/W – $17/$5.00 at Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Lady Demi

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Keen to bet here because I think the market has a few of these wrong. I’m keen to oppose (5) Laure Me In who was a last-start winner over the track and distance and although he gets a similar run from the good draw, he gets a negative weight swing and has a poor third up record.

(7) Matowi looked all over a winner in that race before being worried out of it by Laure Me In the last 50m. He gets a 4.5kg weight swing in his favour for a 0.1L defeat so despite drawing wide, he has enough in hand to turn the tables. His run prior to last start suggested he was ready to win and he remains at his pet track and distance, so should be very competitive again. Somewhat strangely, Tommy Berry is replaced by Kathy O’Hara.

Berry actually jumps on stablemate (4) So You Win who I think is well over the odds at $21. He was never really clear first up in the G2 Shannon Stakes and was only 3.7L off the winner. He never goes much good first up, but he does have the ability to spike sharply second up, with three wins from five starts. It really catches my eye that Tommy Berry replaces apprentice Thomas Stockdale and is off the stablemate who he normally rides. Definitely having something small on at the price.

(1) Looks Like Elvis ran 5^th in the G1 Epsom Handicap last start and should find this significantly easier than what he’s been contesting all prep. The jockey booking doesn’t fill me with much confidence though.

The horse that scares me most is (10) Opacity with blinkers applied for the first time, however I’ve been with him a couple times this prep and have been left disappointed.

Top pick: (7) Matowi – $7.50 at Unibet

Value: (4) So You Win – $21/$5 at Unibet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Matowi, 0.5/1 unit E/W So You Win, 0.5 unit WIN Looks Like Elvis

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Another competitive race, this time for the fillies. (2) Joviality put three wins on the board leading into the G1 Flight Stakes last start, where she was well-beaten into 5^th. She travelled keenly, however, and pulled herself three-wide outside the leaders early in the race, meaning she was working hard throughout. Back to the 1400m, she should get a stronger tempo which will allow her to settle better. JMac jumps back on, will need a good ride from barrier 11 but can bounce back.

(1) Forbidden Love hasn’t done much wrong this prep, winning first up and then placing behind the likes of Dame Giselle, Hungry Heart and Wild Ruler, who came out and won again last weekend. Jumps straight up to 1400m from 1100m which is the query but she brings strong form lines.

(9) Only Mine was very heavily backed last start when stepping up to 1400m with the blinkers applied for the first time, and she justified the plunge by leading throughout to score by 3.8L. She gets in light here with 53kg and based on her sectionals from last start, has to be rated highly here. The query is whether she gets an easy run in front like she did last start, and the fact she steps up to Listed grade straight out of a maiden win.

(4) Elizabeel next best.

Top pick: (2) Joviality – $4.80 at Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Joviality, 0.5 units WIN Forbidden Love

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

If she’s 100%, (14) It’s Me looks quite clearly the one to beat, but having had a scare with mucus earlier this week, it’s hard to know what price she starts (I suspect she may drift). She’s reeled off three electric wins from as many starts and has won in ways that suggest she is a horse destined for better competition than this. Barrier 7 is ideal and so long as she’s overcome that little hiccup, she looks the goods.

(1) Handle The Truth won this race last year and returns for another crack this time around. He was unlucky first up when held up badly in the straight. Nash Rawiller (who rode him last year) gets back aboard, taking over from the 3kg apprentice, and he looks a major player to me. He has a good second up record, is proven at the level and looks set to run another bold race.

(11) Fender was outclassed in Group 2 company last start but had won four from four leading into that. He was only 2.7L off the likes of Wild Planet and Funstar, who would be $1.05 here.

(13) Ice In Vancouver faces a steep rise in class but has won nicely in both career starts in the bush.

Top pick: (14) It’s Me – $2.74 at Betfair

Value: (1) Handle The Truth – $8.00 at Betfair

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN It’s Me, 0.5 units WIN Handle The Truth

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(1) Deprive lines up over his pet track and distance here having run 3^rd to Libertini and Classique Legend first up in the Premiere Stakes. He came from last on that occasion and there’s a fair case to be made that Libertini and Classique Legend might well fight out the finish of The Everest, so against much easier opposition here, Deprive looks the one to beat. His racing pattern does mean he needs a few things to go his way, but he’s got the ability.

I think the clear value in the race is (3) Tactical Advantage, who is my best value bet of the day at $20. The key for this horse is coming here third up from a spell. He’s won his past two starts when third up and overall has four wins from six starts at this stage of his preparation. Up to 1200m suits, he just needs a few things to go his way as well given his racing pattern, much like Deprive.

(4) Standout took on Nature Strip in a speed battle last start and paid the price for it. At his very best he’d be the one to beat here but I think he’s short enough at $4.00.

$12 looks a touch over the odds for (8) Trumbull, who has a very good first up record, including a win last preparation when sitting three-wide the trip with no cover at this track and distance. He can be a bit of a barrier rogue but when he jumps cleanly, he’s right in the finish most of the time.

Top pick: (1) Deprive – $2.90 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Tactical Advantage – $20 at Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 3 units WIN Deprive, 0.5 units E/W Tactical Advantage, 0.5 units WIN Trumbull

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

The feature race of the day is the $15 million TAB Everest, which has assembled the country’s best sprinters to line up over the 1200m. For a full runner-by-runner preview of the race, including my speed map, analysis and selections, please click on the link below!

2020 The Everest Runner-by-Runner Preview

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

This looks a very good race for (2) Star Of The Seas, who hasn’t had any luck this preparation. He went stride for stride with Verry Elleegant first up in the Winx Stakes, should have won the George Main Stakes second up, and never really got clear running in the Epsom Handicap last start. He drops heavily in class here and tries his hand at 2000m for the first time in his career. We had a few queries over his stablemate Kolding running out a strong 2000m the other week and he won that convincingly, and I think it will be a similar scenario here with Star Of The Seas. On top of that, he’s rated 35 points higher than the bottom-rated horse in the race, yet carries just 3kg more in the weights. With such a compressed spread, he looks thrown in and I think he’s the bet of the day by some margin.

(11) Vanna Girl looks his biggest danger according to the market but it’s hard to be confident about her. She didn’t do much first up in the Tramway Stakes and did even less in the Epsom last start. The rise in trip to 2000m third run back from a spell will suit, as will the drop in class, but she’d need to improve in my opinion.

Top pick: (2) Star Of The Seas – $2.10 at Bet365

Betting strategy: 5 units WIN Star Of The Seas

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Very keen on (7) Paths Of Glory here. He won the Wyong Cup three starts ago, before running 4^th in the Newcastle Cup where he had to do a bit of work up on a decent speed. They changed tactics with him last time out in The Metropolitan, electing to ride him back from the wide gate. His run from back in the field was enormous and the step up in distance, and the drop in class, both make him very hard to beat in a moderate field. Kerrin McEvoy takes over from Kathy O’Hara – a huge jockey change, and from a middle draw he looks the horse to beat with even luck.

(3) Attorney comes off a win in G3 company over 2400m at Rosehill. That was only a moderate field and he did get everything go his way, but he still won it well enough to suggest he can be very competitive today. Once again he draws barrier 1 for the run of the race.

(10) She’s Ideel is the new girl on the block but does step up sharply from 2000m to 2600m and comes out of a BM78 race. She remains relatively unexposed but does face a decent task in my opinion, despite being undefeated at the track.

Waller’s main charge (2) Brimham Rocks finished midfield in The Metropolitan last start, after sitting three-wide without cover throughout. McDonald jumps on today and his run two starts ago in the Kingston Town suggests he is ready to win.

I think if we bet smartly here we can land a decent result.

Top pick: (7) Paths Of Glory – $4.40 at Bet365

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Paths Of Glory, 1 unit WIN Attorney, 1 unit WIN Brimham Rocks

Odds Last Updated: October 18, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

A wide-open way to finish the card here and a really tricky betting race. I’ll play very small on three runners here.

(7) So Taken didn’t get a whole lot of luck last start with apprentice Thomas Stockdale in the saddle, and her first up run behind Chat was good. Third up here, she’ll need a good ride from barrier 14 from Tim Clark, but she can pop up in a race like this, though she doesn’t win out of turn.

(9) Shadow Flight is a $71 chance coming off an average first up run. He does have the ability to improve sharply off his first up runs though, and the rise in distance is another positive. Drawn awkward and probably isn’t going well enough but at those odds, I’ll have a nibble.

Speaking of big odds, (11) No Escape is $126 and I can make a case for him. He never goes any good first or second up, but he does have a reasonable third up record, with two wins and three placings from seven starts. He’s also got a terrific record at the distance. Now he probably needs the ground to be soft to be at his best, and he might well be past it, but he’s a knockout chance at enormous odds.

Top pick: (7) So Taken – $11 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Shadow Flight – $71 at Sportsbet & (11) No Escape – $126 at Palmberbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W So Taken, 0.25 units WIN Shadow Flight $71, 0.25 units WIN No Escape $126