Caulfield Tips: Blue Sapphire Stakes Day, Wednesday, October 14th

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

I went looking for a bit of different form here but honestly couldn’t find it. I don’t think the ones bringing maiden form have shown quite enough to be challenging.

Not much between (1) Tanker and (3) Celestial Sol from their last clash at this track and distance. Tanker has gone on to win easily at The Valley, Celestial Sol failed up to 1800m.

The different form line, and one that I think will prove the best, lies with (4) Embolism. He raced at Flemington over 1400m and whilst it was only a bm64, it was probably a better race than the very average bm70’s that the other two have been competing in. Embolism looks like he’s crying out for further distance after trucking solidly through the 1400m line, and he did start $4.20 and finish only 1.2L off subsequent Guineas placegetter Grandslam. If he jumps cleanly, he should be in a handy enough spot from barrier one and Olly should be getting the right runs.

Tip: (4) Embolism – $3.20 at Sportsbet

Tip: (4) Embolism - $3.20 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

The last chance to get into the Caulfield Cup field is up for grabs here with the Coongy Cup.

(3) Al Galayel is absolutely flying, winning his last three nicely. He draws the outside barrier here and jumps in weight, which will make the job tougher but he’s a leading chance.

I thought (6) Django Freeman got in very nicely at the weights here coming out of the Turnbull Stakes. He only goes up 2kg from that run, whereas a horse like (1) Harlem goes up 6.5kg. Django Freeman finished 11^th in that run but was only beaten 2.7L and I thought he had excuses. The horse on his inside, Aktau, over raced badly and dropped out to finish last, and Django Freeman was in restricted room basically the entire straight. His run first up was very solid, running 2^nd and I love the booking of Kah here from barrier 5.

The other main chance is (8) Nonconformist who was incredibly disappointing last start behind Junipal. He was wide but had cover, unlike the winner, and he faded to finish 7^th. The form out of that race is okay through the Cranbourne Cup and Nonconformist should be fitter here, but that’s not the run you want to be coming off of to take $4.40. Al Galayel is the horse to beat but I think Django Freeman maps better with Kah aboard, so at the odds I’m happy to lean his way.

TIP: (6) Django Freeman – $4.50 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Tough race. (3) Gamay looked home last start at Flemington, getting nailed on the line by Affair To Remember. In 4^th there was (2) Grand Promenade. Grand Promenade had the clear SP over Gamay there, but I think both horses had every chance and the 2000m should really suit both. Grand Promenade draws better so I could lean his way, but at around $3 and $4 I don’t have much better interest in either.

The next in the market is (4) Irish Flame who I would’ve liked on top, provided we were on a soft track. His run on a soft 6 last start behind Saracen Knight was very good in a brutally run affair which rated very well. His run before on a good track was solid but he had every possible chance, albeit in a slightly stronger race.

The one I found at odds, and I think you’ll get better come jump time, is (6) Royal Crown. He ran well first up with 62kg over 1600m, coming home in the fastest last 400m of the race, before taking on the JRA Cup last start in a horror show. He was nearly stopped dead at the 600m mark and ended up last, then had to change course again at the 250m when the race was all but over. Zahra jumps back on board here and I think you’ll see an improvement third up. I think you’ll easily get double figures come jump time and could do worse than having something on, each way if you like.

TIP: (6) Royal Crown – $9.50 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Incredibly disappointing feature race of the day, the Blue Sapphire for the 3yo’s.

Only a field of three, headed by Sydney colt (2) Anders. He’ll lead from (3) Ranting and (1) Hanseatic and even up to 1200m he should be winning. Unless an extra 100m inexplicably makes him hit a wall, his form in Sydney when running horses like Ole Kirk and Doubtland (who beat home Ranting in the Danehill) into the ground should be too strong.

Hanseatic was very good first up before being backed off the map in the Moir but not really firing in 9^th, beaten 3.2L. He’s the clear danger up to 1200m but in all honesty this is a no bet race and the market does look spot on. If Hanseatic got out to around $4.50 I could entertain a small bet just in case Anders doesn’t handle Caulfield or doesn’t run 1200m.

TIP: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Great staying race here. (7) Saracen Knight got the job done for us after being well backed in a big win. He was blocked around the turn, got clear and really motored late off a fast tempo to get up on the line. 2400m will pose no issue and his overseas form before the long break was very good. He’s clearly the hardest to beat and barrier 4 should be ideal.

(8) Cadre Du Noir looked a moral going up to Sydney last start off the back of a 6L demolition at Sandown but could only manage 2^nd after being truck loaded into $1.55. The line between the two is Skyman who narrowly beat Cadre Du Noir three back and who Saracen Knight put 6L on last start. Saracen Knight should have more improvement to come and has had 18 days between runs which should be enough time to recover from his last start.

(12) Super Girl is going okay and has been taking on some quality races. The form guide doesn’t read particularly well but she hasn’t been far off horses such as Lord Belvedere and Mahamedeis who would be hard in the market here. She also draws an inside barrier for the first time this preparation and may be able to settle a pair or two closer. I’ll be having something on her 1×3 at $3 the place, as well as Saracen Knight to win because I think there’s a good chance he wins, and she places.

TIP: (7) Saracen Knight – $2.80 at Bet365

VALUE: (12) Super Girl – $10 at Bet365

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Good contest and a tricky one to dissect. (3) Coruscate is the horse to beat coming off an easy victory at this T/D last start when controlling the race and booting clear. He’s generally just as good 2^nd up and draws to do no work.

The danger could be (5) Sansom who comes here fresh from a let up after a solid Winter campaign. His form around Alfa Oro obviously reads well, and he generally had to carry a fair bit of weight, including at WFA level in the Bletchingly Stakes when only 2.2L off Viridine at basically level weights.

(1) The Velvet King is the interesting one over from WA. He’s close to the best horse in the race and does have to carry the 61.5kg here from barrier 10. He’s only had two 1200m runs in his career and has run 2^nd in both, the most recent in the Roma Cup behind Vega Magic. That’s obviously very strong form and if he’s ready to fire first up he’ll be hard to beat, but there are enough queries to stay out, which makes it a difficult betting race. Coruscate should be hard to beat again and Sansom could be the value.

TIP: (3) Coruscate – $3.30 at TAB

VALUE: (5) Sansom – $8.50 at TAB

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Really good edition of the Ladies’ Day Vase with plenty of quality at around $5.50 the field. Two of the favoured runners raced and won on the same midweek meeting at Flemington.

(9) Affair To Remember won over 1600m and (11) Challiot won over 1400m, both coming from dead last to get up. Despite running further, Affair To Remember ran a faster last 600, 400 and 200m split. Challiot was coming off a long break and steps up to 1600m here but does draw barrier 3 and if she’s last again in the big field will need a great ride. Affair To Remember looks better suited in barrier 8 and has the runs on the board, so I’m happy to side with her.

(8) Sovereign Award keeps racing well and won easily at The Valley last start, comfortably accounting for Titan Blinders who was a close 2^nd to Challiot the start prior. Sovereign Award maps beautifully from barrier 4 with Kah aboard.

One of the other main lead ups was the Blazer Stakes, and I thought (5) Missile Mantra was the pick of those bouncing back to form.

Coming out of the Stocks Stakes we’ve got (7) One More Try who ran on well for a distant 3^rd behind Mystic Journey and Perfect Jewel and does tend to peak 3^rd up.

(2) Paradee beat Affair To Remember home first up in a huge run. The 1600m will be no issue, but she’s 6 weeks between runs now which seems odd. It is Danny O’Brien though who can keep them fit without racing and she looks the saver in the race.

TIP: (9) Affair To Remember – $6.50 at Bet365

SAVER: (2) Paradee – $6.50 at Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Tough one to finish. (9) Legionnaire is racing well. He had every possible chance last start but drops from a listed race to a bm84 and only goes up 2kg. He’s the horse to beat but is becoming a bit costly and is still stuck on the one 3yo win.

I actually thought the 7yo (8) Simply Invincible could be the value here third up. He wasn’t beaten far in a good race behind I Am Superman first up, before racing a bit flat 2^nd up on soft ground behind Windstorm and Buffalo River, which is obviously very good form. It was a long time ago, but his 3^rd up record is very good, and he gets blinkers back on returning to a good surface.

(6) Kazio is ready to fire at 1400m but does draw wide at a tricky circuit. Lane takes the ride from Teo Nugent which is a big positive and he wouldn’t shock at double figures. I like the map for Simply Invincible from barrier 7, probably getting to an OSL position with relative ease. If you go off his first up run, he’d be a huge hope here and at the double figure quote I could definitely entertain a play.

TIP: (8) Simply Invincible – $13 at Palmerbet