Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, December 26th

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Ranveer does look the horse to beat in the opener. He was scratched from the Clockwise Classic and ran down the straight on debut, starting $2.60 favourite and running 2^nd to the very impressive Profiteer. That was in good time and looks one of the better 2yo form lines heading into the new year. Jamie Kah takes the ride and a wide draw at this start isn’t the worst thing.

 

(8) Yulong Jet looks a nice type for the McEvoy yard. Damien Lane is booked for the debut which is a good lead, and he should go forward and race on speed.

 

(12) Picarones is another Godolphin 2yo that looks talented. She won a Flemington jumpout after trialling in Sydney and the stable certainly know their way around a 2yo.

 

Tip: (1) Ranveer $3.40 TAB SCRATCHED

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Ranveer

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

From what I’ve read, Esta La Roca is going to be scratched which influences the speed map and market quite drastically. That should leave (5) Twist Of Fury to find the front from barrier 3. She was forced to sit 3 wide on speed at The Valley last start and I thought the run was full of merit against the older horses. It was a bunched finish, but she was clearly the best of the on pacers. She steps back up to 1100m here, where she won by 4.3L at Traralgon two back and with Kah on she’s going to be hard to beat.

 

The value to my eye is (4) Lariat who seems a bit underrated for a filly that has won her last two. She got every favour last start at The Valley, controlling the race from outside the lead, but the form out of the race has been strong with Zou Dancer winning impressively at Flemington since.

 

(8) Night Of Delight isn’t completely hopeless at odds as she did start $7.50 against Esta La Roca last start and was given a poor ride. Not sure her form prior made her a strong winning chance here, but if you want to include a roughie, I wouldn’t leave her out.

 

Tip: (5) Twist Of Fury $3.60 TAB

Value: (4) Lariat $11.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Twist Of Fury, 0.5 units WIN Lariat

 

 

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Good little race. (3) Ayrton was utterly dominant on debut at Bendigo over 1300m, sitting outside the lead and powering away to win by 5L and running some quick final sectionals in doing so. He draws the outside barrier here which can often be very difficult at the 1400m start. He could well be the best horse in this race by a couple of lengths, but it’s enough to turn me off at the $1.95 quote.

 

(2) Beltoro is 2/2 and was an impressive winner at Flemington last start, sitting back off a hot tempo and finishing powerfully to win by 2L. The form out of that race has been strong with Narvaez winning easily at Sandown on Wednesday. I do wonder if he’s looking for 1600m now, but he should get a cosy run from barrier 3.

 

(7) Safeeya bolted in at Cranbourne first up and has to be respected, whilst I doubt anything else can win.

 

The market looks about right early. I’ve got Beltoro on top, but I think you’ll get a touch longer than the $5.00 available early.

 

Tip: (2) Beltoro $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit Beltoro

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

One of the toughest races on the day. (1) Viral was a big run last start when sitting wide at Flemington. His form prior was good enough for this- he was a long way back at Ballarat and had no hope of getting into the race, and the run prior behind Outrageous was strong too. For the first time this prep he draws a gate, and as they went forward from a wide gate last start, I’d expect Lane to use him up from barrier 3. They’ve opted not to claim and carry the full 62kg, but with the form Lane is in I think it’s a positive and he’d be the one I mark favourite.

 

(11) Promotions brings the Sydney form but it’s the B grade form. He’s racing well but does draw the carpark which is never easy at the 1400m start.

 

(2) Never Again missed the start and had no hope first up at Pakenham. He’s 2/4 when 2^nd up but my main query is that all his form is at Flemington, as he’s never run a place from 6 attempts at Caulfield.

 

(5) Jentico hasn’t won for a while but her best form, including a win over Titan Blinders at this T/D would see her go very close. I think she’s looking for 1400m now, coming off a fast finishing 6^th, beaten 2.9L behind Savatoxl in Adelaide. She’s one that maps quite well from barrier 6 and isn’t hopeless at odds.

 

Tip: (1) Viral $5.00 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Jentico $11.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Viral, 0.5 units WIN Jentico

 

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

If this was 1400m I’d be very keen on (5) Don’ttelltheboss but even still, she’s the horse to beat. She was very good first up at The Valley, sitting back and coming very wide before the turn, winning softly on the line. She did run 3^rd in a Typhoon Tracy behind Ms Catherine when 2^nd up last prep at 1200m, and I like the blinkers staying on. She’ll need a bit of luck from barrier one, but the field should break up enough and the pace strong enough for her to run on.

 

Also in that Typhoon Tracy was (6) Sassy Salitage, who started a dominant $2.50 favourite but could only manage 4^th. She’s a hard horse to catch, but I thought her last run down the straight was quite good. She’s much better suited around a bend, and her record is a bit misleading as she doesn’t go a yard on wet ground. On good/synthetic tracks, she’s never missed the top 4. On her day she’s very hard to catch and could be the value here.

 

(3) Belzella ran a huge race first up at $41 down the straight, coming from a long way back to just miss Memphis Rock, beating home Excelida. When 2^nd up last prep (with the McEvoy stable) she bolted in. She’ll get a long way back from the gate which is the main concern.

 

(2) Aten didn’t look suited along the inside down the straight in that same race and can improve. Her best form as a 3yo puts her in this.

 

Tip: (5) Don’ttelltheboss $5.00 Sportsbet

Value: (6) Sassy Salitage $21.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Don’ttelltheboss, 0.25 units WIN Sassy Salitage

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

If (14) That Girl brings her first up run behind Defiant Dancer, she’ll be winning here. She drew the widest gate there and settled last, running on very strongly in the day’s fastest last 600m and 400m (her final 200m was only bettered by William Thomas). Second up last prep she was a solid run in the Creswick Stakes, 3.9L off Front Page after coming up the inside. I’d prefer her to have drawn a middle barrier rather than 2, but she should be able to settle a couple of pairs closer, and if she’s in striking distance around the turn I doubt anything can match her last 400m.

 

(4) Ididitforlove was given a great ride by Tahlia Hope first up to poke up the inside. He’s a handy horse who has come back well and with the right run will be in the finish, but this is a far different set up.

 

(12) The Mobot missed the start behind Ididitforlove first up and ran well considering.

 

(5) Lucifer’s Reward is an interesting one. He’s a very good fresh horse and his best form is easily good enough. At 1000m here he has a dominant win over the likes of Wilmot Pass, Acumen and Proper Rogue. That was in a very fast race, and the speed on paper certainly looks strong here. The booking of Nash first up suggests they’ve got the horse primed for this, and I like the map from barrier 8 where he should be able to sit midfield and get a cart into the race.

 

Tip: (14) That Girl $3.30 TAB
Value: (5) Lucifer’s Reward $21.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN That Girl, 0.25 units WIN Lucifer’s Reward

 

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Nice little sprint race. (9) Pandemic is the favourite coming off a Rosehill 1100m win. He ran over this T/D last prep and was huge as $2.50 favourite, coming from off the speed on a day you definitely wanted to be leading. He’s going to get back to near last again here, and I’ve got a slight query on him at 1200m.

 

(2) Sansom has had 7 weeks off but I like the drop back to 1200m. He narrowly beat Pandemic home at Caulfield when they met but does meet that horse 6.5kg worse at the weights.

 

(7) King Of Hastings comes here first up at 1200m which I find interesting. His first up run last prep at 1000m was very good when beaten by Prezado.

 

(6) Tavisan was good when leading at Pakenham last start, running 2^nd to Sirius Suspect. I still think he’s better at 1100m, but his 3^rd up record is strong, and he did win well at this stage of last prep.

 

Found this very tough. Everything except 1200m points to Pandemic- the form out of his last win is very good, he gets in on the minimum and his run at this T/D last prep was huge. There will have been 4 chute races by this time of the day, so we’ll know if they can swoop and win. If that’s the case, I simply have to be with him. I think he’ll drift, as the early betfair market is suggesting, and at around $3.50 he has to be a bet.

 

Tip: (9) Pandemic $3.10 Betfair

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Pandemic

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Keen to see (7) Tavidance again. He’s got group class (maybe even group 1) ability but has been held back by soundness issues. He’s finally starting to put it all together and showed that at Pakenham with a dominant 3.8L win. He was a moral beaten the start before at Kilmore and had absolutely zero luck first up. 4th up last prep he won by 6L over 1700m, and I’m expecting him to win again. If for some reason we get some juice in the track he’s a complete moral, but his last two runs have been on good tracks so there’s no reason to suggest he hasn’t learnt to cope with them. The draw is a touch sticky, but I think Olly has every opportunity to go forward in a race without a stack of speed, and with even luck he should win again.

 

The danger looks to be (5) Mosh Music. I loved her run first up at Pakenham over 1400m, getting going late behind The Astrologist. She was first up off 62 weeks, and her 2^nd up record is very good. She’s a group class mare any day of the week when right, and her record of 7 from 12 suggests that. Up to 1700m is ideal, and she’s the only one I can see troubling Tavidance because she’s still quite untapped.

 

(1) Night’s Watch was good behind Tavidance last start when getting a long way back, but Tavidance was soft on the line and still ran a faster last 600/400/200m. I doubt the 1.5kg weight swing will be enough to turn the tables on what could have been a 5L margin.

 

(8) Paradee looks very short and has rightfully drifted from her opening price. She’s 7 weeks between runs and outside Affair To Remember, the mare’s form isn’t good enough in my opinion. I think you’ll get $7 about her late.

 

Tip: (7) Tavidance $2.45 Sportsbet

Danger: (5) Mosh Music $14.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Tavidance, 0.5 units E/W Mosh Music

 

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Barry The Baptist is due for a change of luck. I backed him last start in the Werribee Cup and he probably should’ve won, never getting clear and going to the line basically untested, beaten 1.25L. His run the start prior at The Valley was a similar story, getting badly checked when trying to build momentum, with the race all but over once he got clear.

 

(3) Sentimentalist finished 2^nd in that Werribee Cup but did had the dream run. His best is certainly good enough, having beaten Mr Quickie at this T/D.

 

(4) Astraeus is flying and ticked the 2000m box last start. He gets Nash here and should be able to get across without doing a stack of work.

 

(8) Influential Girl is flying, having run a fast finishing 2^nd to Tralee Rose two back before getting a well-deserved win at The Valley last start. She was only 3^rd up there and could have a bit more improvement to come, having won 4^th up last prep.

 

(5) Zachaz is airborne but did have the perfect run last start and I don’t think he beat a great field. He’s an obvious winning hope but in an open race I didn’t want to take $4.40.

 

Tip: (2) Barry The Baptist $15.00 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Influential Girl $18.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.75 units WIN Barry The Baptist, 0.25 units WIN Influential Girl