Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, May 29th

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 11:47am (AEDT)

(4) Set The Sails was one of the biggest morals beaten on debut at Geelong. He was a touch slow away, got into an awful spot, got held up badly whilst the winner and leader was off and gone. He absolutely stormed home, running the fastest 600/400/200m of the meeting. It was a run that oozed next start winner and whilst I think he’s about his right price at $2.35, it’s a fair price.

(1) Sudoku was fairly dominant on debut and should have map advantages over the favourite. Currie sticks with him and he looks a clear danger.

(2) Magic Max should be closing late having done so in both runs in Adelaide. Lane booked to ride and he should get clear air from barrier 9. The Heresy form is solid enough and should measure up here.

Tip: (4) Set The Sails - $2.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Set The Sails

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 12:22pm (AEDT)

Open race and plenty of speed engaged. I’m going to follow last start with (9) Continuance who put in a very odd run at Ballarat. She led and won very well first up at The Bool but was allowed to drift back and ended up last in the field of 5 2nd up. Her work through the line was good suggesting she wanted further and gets to 1100m here. She also drops a huge 6.5kg which I think will really help given how long she took to wind up last start.

(11) Thunberg is an interesting one, the first of a few Tasmanian horses at this meeting. She’s a consistent sort, with 6 top 2 finishes from 10 starts, and she did run very well last start, beating home First Accused, who goes around a well-respected chance later. Gets in with 53kg and I can see her getting across into a nice spot just behind the speed from barrier 8.

(3) Maha ran very well in some strong 3yo fillies races in the Spring without winning, including a 1.2L defeat to September Run down the straight.

(13) Sugartown has bolted in two runs this prep but this is her toughest test yet.

Very tough. Something small on Continuance and Thunberg at big prices.

Tip: (9) Continuance - $21.00 at Bet365

Value: (11) Thunberg - $26.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Continuance, 0.25 units E/W Thunberg

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 12:57pm (AEDT)

Another very tough race. (1) Pintoff is flying but I thought he got every favour last start with Kah on. Lafferty takes the ride and 3kg off but he comes up against some progressive horses and doesn’t map to get the gun run.

(10) The Gauch does map for a lovely run from barrier 5. He’s only finished outside of the top two once and it was when pulling up lame at the end of last prep. He’s been gelded since then although the trial was just fair.

(9) The Difference ties in with The Gauch through Ocular, finishing close up to that horse at Flemington. Has a good record at 1200m.

(6) Hidden Legend next best.

Tip: (10) The Gauch - $4.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 1:32pm (AEDT)

(2) Why Choose Her is an interesting one, first up for the new L Smith stable. She ran an excellent race when 2nd to Indian Pacific just two starts ago, beaten less than a length, then crossed the line with that horse when 2L off Flirtini last start. Drops to a bm84 here and even though she’s had 35 starts, she went out in career best form.

(8) Plaquette should’ve won last start over 1100m in my opinion, Olly just getting going too late to just miss. How far back she gets again is the query but she’ll be flying late.

(12) Runaway Girl is another Brunton trained horse and her form in Tasmania does read well in patches. She was beaten 6.5L in a group 3 first up last prep in a strange race by Ethical Solution, where the $1.35 favourite Deroche failed badly, then ran a good 3rd, beaten 1.75L by Still A Star, who is better than all of these mares, and then was only 2L off Street Tough who is quite handy. I think she’s better over 1400m but she is coming off a freshen, and with 52kg she can do something here.

(3) Bons Abroad is flying but is getting right up in the weights now with Prebble on board. Can definitely win again but I think we might’ve gotten our cash out of her last start.

Tip: (2) Why Choose Her - $8.50 at Sportsbetting

Value: (12) Runaway Girl - $27.00 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Why Choose Her, 0.25 units E/W Runaway Girl

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Going for value again in the form of (11) Tinandali who has had one start in Aus and it was an interesting affair on Oaks day at Flemington. He was, from memory, around $8 in opening markets and started $3.50 in a fairly strong bm90, running on okay from the back but not doing much. Clearly 1400m is going to be short of his best, but there looks genuine speed on and he’s $26 here in a weaker race with 54kg. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him warming up late and running a nice race.

(4) Adelaide Ace was a horrible watch at The Bool, missing the start and powering home late to run 2nd. He’s enigmatic but certainly has the talent when he shows up.

(14) Taksu looks ready to win and gets the near side blinkers on to help correct his greenness last start when throwing the race away. Gets a lovely map from 4 and on the minimum weight.

(13) Witchfulthinking saved us at The Bool leading all the way and will have to come across from out wide here. She easily accounted for La Chevalee, who has come out and run 2nd to Kurabui on Wednesday which looks strong form.

Tip: (11) Tinandali - $26.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Tinandali

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 2:52pm (AEDT)

Found it hard to get away from (4) Yonkers. He’s never been one of mine but the horse is flying, with his last three all excellent. The run at 2400m behind Mohican Heights was good, the win two back was utterly dominant, and the run last start in the Wagga Cup was good despite not being able to catch Inverloch, who he beat easily here. Gets in with a very winnable weight in 56.5kg, Thornton sticks, the map is good from 4 and he loves Caulfield.

(2) Pacodali is going better than the formguide might suggest. Both runs this prep have been strong, getting home well enough in Adelaide last start behind Lord Vladivostok. Last time he was at this T/D he ran 2nd to Mahamedeis in a stronger race.

(3) Hypnos was well backed at his Aus debut in a very strange race where they came home very slowly, 13.41 seconds for the final 200m which is awful. Perhaps he needed the run and can improve here.

(7) Last Week is ticking over well and gets in with 51kg third up.

Tip: (4) Yonkers - $3.10 at BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Yonkers

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 3:32pm (AEDT)

 A real off-season race. Looks a genuine tempo. (13) Tan Check was solid first up at Ballarat over the mile and does have a very good 2nd up record with 2 wins and 2 2nds from 5 starts. Drops a massive 7kg from that race going from a bm70 to a bm84 but did win by 5L 2nd up last prep, albeit in the Dunkeld Cup.

(3) Spring Choice was a deserved winner at Sandown over 1700m last start following two good efforts behind Dice Roll and Shandy. Should be at peak fitness 4th up.

(4) Vungers beat Spring Choice home here over 1400m two back when just run down late by Dice Roll, and took a sit last start, finding a bit of trouble. Doubt he finds the front here with Surreal Image on the backup.

(7) Surreal Image just missed a place last week in a strange race. Should cross and lead at least but hasn’t placed in 3 starts at Caulfield.

Plenty of usual suspects going around here, with nothing really on the up that is destined for better. Happy to stay out unless Tan Check got out to around $17-21

Tip: (13) Tan Check - $13.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 4:12pm (AEDT)

Good race for the 3yo’s. (1) First Accused is yet another Tassie horse I alluded to earlier and I think he’ll measure up. His only run at 1600m was a brave 2nd in the Tasmanian Guineas when run down by Swoop Dog who I think is quite handy and started $2 in the Tas Derby won by Explosive Jack. This prep he hit the line very strongly over 1200m before leading and bolting in last start at 1400m. Drawn barrier 2 here he maps for a good run on speed and with a few dangers likely to get back I think he can pinch a break.

(4) Seb Song is a horse I have plenty of time for. He ran into an airborne Shelby Cobra at Sale and bolted in at The Valley one night over 1600m. He resumed at Cranbourne in a bm64 and got the job done but I think there’d be plenty of improvement to come and Melham riding at his first Saturday in 6 months takes the ride from a nice barrier.

(5) Riot And Rose is unbeaten in two starts, belting up the older horses on the synthetic last start at Pakenham. The wide draw is a bit sticky but she’s progressing very nicely.

(10) Inka Dinka beat Fac last start who bolted in on Wednesday and looks to have plenty of talent, as does (12) Burleigh Boy who destroyed his rivals by 5L at $1.50 last start.

Tip: (1) First Accused - $7.00 at BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W First Accused

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 4:42pm (AEDT)

The feature of the day over 1100m featuring some pretty handy sprinters. He’s been off the scene a while but (2) The Inevitable brings interest. He’s got an outstanding first up record with 3 wins from 6 starts, which doesn’t include an outstanding 2nd with 60kg at Flemington off 7 weeks in April last year. First up last prep he was beaten 0.4L by Zoutori down the straight which reads well. The two trial wins have been okay- he was ridden out but they were only over 800m and 730m compared to last prep over 1000m.

(4) Banquo beat him home in the Bobbie Lewis when they met although The Inevitable’s run was just as good if not better. First up last prep he was 1.6L off Diamond Effort in The Heath in a bunched finish and did run very well in a Rupert Clarke behind Behemoth. 1100m might be just a touch sharp for him however.

(1) Great Again was good and wide in the Wangoom and flies 2nd up but might want wetter ground. He was scratched from the straight six possibly looking for wetter ground but I don’t think he’ll find it here.

(7) Sartorial Splendor is airborne and very fast but up to 1100m is a big query and he’ll be out on his feet late.

(9) Muntaseera was very good over 1100m two back beating Instant Celebrity which obviously reads very well and was a forgive run in the Sangster when wide on speed at 1200m, not fading too badly at all. I think 1100m is her sweet spot and she gets in with 51kg so I’ll be keeping her on side.

Tip: (2) The Inevitable - $8.50 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (9) Muntaseera - $4.60 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN The Inevitable, 0.5 units WIN Muntaseera