Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Saturday, May 29th

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 11:37am (AEDT)

Keen to be with (6) Profit first up here with James McDonald a notable jockey booking. First up last prep, this horse ran 3rd behind The Harrovian and Red Chase in Listed company at Doomben. He has a good record at this track and distance and looks to have found a suitable race.

(10) Faschanel comes into this on the back of consecutive wins in Sydney. Those have both been in BM72 company for fillies and mares, so she faces a step up in grade today taking on the boys. James McDonald has ridden her to both of those victories but I’d suggest he would struggle to ride her at 54kg, hence Jamie Kah takes over.

(5) Luvoir should put herself up on speed from the wide gate. She was disappointing two starts ago but was good behind Reloaded last start.

Tip: (6) Profit $4.00 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Profit

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 12:12pm (AEDT)

(9) Superium went in my list of horses to follow two weeks ago after his effort to finish 3rd behind Axe at Doomben. He went back from a wide gate and ran home strongly in a race that was dominated by the leaders. Axe then came out last weekend and ran well in harder company, so I think the form is pretty strong. Superium draws the inside here, so should be able to settle midfield and with even luck in the straight, I think he’ll go very close.

The horse at blowout odds I want to be on is (4) Valario, who has very appealing stats next to his name. He’s had five starts when first up from a spell, resulting in four wins and a 2nd placing. He’s won three of his five starts at this track and distance, and five of his seven career wins have been at this distance. Whether he has the class is the query but at $53 it won’t take much to find out.

(8) Kordia looks the scary one to threaten the favourite. She comes into this first up with three trials under her belt and Bowman booked to ride. Still only lightly raced and if there’s a positive market move, I’d be very wary.

(7) Dr Why Not is flying. He has four wins and two 2nds from six starts this prep. He ran 2nd to Axe last start, in the same race that Superium ran 3rd in. I think Superium’s was the better run out of the two though.

Tip: (9) Superium $3.60 Bet365

Value: (4) Valario $53 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.25 units WIN Superium, 0.25 units WIN Valario

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 12:47pm (AEDT)

We get to see the current Stradbroke Handicap favourite here in the form of (9) Ayrton, who comes up $1.60. He looks to be the real deal, and trainer Mick Price certainly hasn’t poured cold water over him with some of the things he’s said pre-race. He returned with a very good win first up at Caulfield and looked to have plenty left in the tank, so if he brings his best here, he should prove too good on his way to the Group 1 in a couple of weeks. He is only having his fourth start though, and this is his first time travelling, so at that quote I’ll be happy to sit back and watch. If he was to get somewhere near $1.80 it would be a backable price.

(7) Exoboom had no luck at all last start, planted wide throughout in the Inglis 3YO Guineas. His run to finish 3rd was a very good effort. Drawn awkwardly again today but with a better run in transit he can run well.

(2) Amish Boy was slaughtered last start and his form prior to that was very strong. Bowman goes on today and he’s one at big odds I could make a genuine case for.

(3) Apache Chase and (6) Midland next best.

Tip: (9) Ayrton $1.71 Betfair

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 1:22pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the topweight (1) Homesman here. He’s a dual Group 1 winner lining up in Group 3 company today. Two starts ago he won the Australian Cup at Flemington over a similar distance, before sitting three-wide without cover throughout the Hollindale Stakes last time out. That was behind Zaaki, who then came out and won the Doomben Cup by the length of the straight.

(7) Reloaded bounced back to winning form last start over the mile in Listed grade. Tougher race today but James McDonald sticks with him and he’s drawn a plum gate in 4. No surprise to see him run well again at double figure odds.

(11) So You Win had the race all but won before being run over by Warning last start. He looked to have found the perfect race that day. He drops from 2000m back to 1800m today but he’s got a lovely gate and he’s rarely far away.

(10) The Candy Man loves it here at Eagle Farm and he improved at Doomben last start, so back to the 1800m at Eagle Farm should see him run a really big race. Really wouldn’t surprise me to see him win.

Tip: (1) Homesman $5.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Homesman

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 2:02pm (AEDT)

He hasn’t won in a long time but I think the time is right for (4) Brimham Rocks. It was actually this time last year that he won his last race, and it was over this track and distance. It was also at his fourth run back from a spell. He only looked fair last start in Melbourne, but the step up to 2400m and the blinkers reapplied should be in his favour today. Draws well, Bowman on, looks a good each way bet.

(2) Le Don De Vie comes off a last-start win in the Warrnambool Cup. The runner-up that day was Puissance De Lune who was desperately unlucky, but has since come out and won easily to frank that form. Le Don De Vie gets JMac on board, should lead and will take some catching.

(5) Carif is going well and can be competitive in a race like this, while (9) Lord Belvedere was absolutely slaughtered last start and can go well at double figure odds.

Tip: (4) Brimham Rocks E/W $8.50/$2.60 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Brimham Rocks

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

I was with (3) Prince Of Boom last start but I’m probably going to have to try and get him beat here. He drew barrier 1 last start, got a beautiful run throughout and accelerated away to win nicely, but he draws awkwardly today and also runs on a good track for the first time in his career. Both wins have been on rain-affected ground, so my small query with him here is if he will be as dominant on firm ground.

(7) Ranch Hand was huge first up (still not sure how he lost). He was very well backed to start a touch over $2.00 that day and JMac was just forced back to the inside, which was probably inferior ground. He gets the blinkers applied today and should take improvement off that first up run.

(10) Port Louis is drawn the grandstand but he may be the most interesting runner in the race. He was sensationally backed to win the G1 Champagne Stakes in Sydney last time we saw him, $31 into $5.00. His run in defeat was enormous, coming from last with an interrupted run to finish 5th, beaten 2.2L. He’ll be a huge player in the JJ Atkins and may well win this on his way there.

The run of the race behind Prince Of Boom last start was (16) Invinsible Tears, who I made mention of in my list of horses to follow from the meeting. She was enormous from the back of the field, rocketing home into 2nd. She’ll relish the step up to 1400m and at $26 I’ll have a peanut on.

(13) Giannis must be included and the chances don’t end there in a complete lottery of a race!

Tip: (7) Ranch Hand $7.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (10) Port Louis $8.50 TAB

Value: (16) invinsible Tears $26 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ranch Hand, 0.5 units WIN Port Louis, 0.25 units WIN Invinsible Tears

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

I think there’s only three chances in the G1 Queensland Derby, so I’ll be building a book around the three of them.

(1) Explosive Jack is the horse to beat. He’s won five of his eight starts, including three Derbies. He’s in search of his fourth Derby today, after previously reigning supreme in the Tasmanian, Australian and South Australian editions. He gets a lovely map today from barrier 6, which should allow him to get the run of the race in midfield. I suppose the only query for him is the firm ground – all three Derby victories have been on soft ground. I have less concern about this being so far into his prep, as the stable are freakish at keeping horses up and going.

(9) Senor Toba was a terrific run in defeat in the Rough Habit Plate last start, coming from well back in the field to finish strongly into 3rd. It wasn’t the kind of run that suggested they were desperate to win the lead up, but more so make sure he had a good look around ahead of his grand final here. Unfortunately he comes up with barrier 21, which is a very tough draw. He may well be last in the run and he’ll have to be good from there, but I think he’s spot on for this and at the prices, he’s the one I want to be with.

(3) Kukeracha is the stablemate to Senor Toba and I think he’s value at $15. He’s improved with each run this prep. I was on him last start when he ran 2nd in the Rough Habit, and jockey Luke Dittman got off and said he would relish the step up to 2400m here. Draws well, JMac goes on and he should be right thereabouts at the finish.

Tip: (9) Senor Toba $5.50 TopSport

Value: (3) Kukeracha $15 Bet365

Saver: (1) Explosive Jack $2.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Senor Toba, 1 unit WIN Explosive Jack, 0.5 units WIN Kukeracha

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 4:02pm (AEDT)

The Kingsford-Smith Cup looks a wide-open race with any number of chances.

I can’t quite believe I’m tipping him, but (1) Trekking is the one I’ve got on top here. This is probably his final chance before being placed on the ‘never again’ list. He looked as if he was going to win by 3L first up before completely stopping, perhaps due to his condition giving out or potentially the wet track. He did similar last start in the Doomben 10,000. He loomed into it at the 200m like he might win, and then was fairly weak late. I think the return to a good track today could see him improve sharply, or at least enough to win this. He’ll need a good ride from the wide gate, but his third up record is good and at $8.50 he appeals.

(2) Gytrash was sound first up in The Goodwood in Adelaide. The stable did say he went in potentially one gallop short, so he might well improve nicely off that run. He’s got a horror draw here but does go well second up and at his best, is probably the best horse in the race, so the price about him isn’t bad.

(10) Jonker has improved out of sight for Tony Gollan. He ran 3rd in The Galaxy last start and that form has been franked with Eduardo winning the 10,000.

(13) Savatiano is a horse I struggle to get right. When I back her, she loses and when I oppose her, she wins. She does get a very suitable race here – I think 1300m is probably her best distance and she’s been in terrific form this prep. Will there be a bit too much speed for her up front? I hope so.

(3) Savatoxl, (4) Imaging, (8) Niccanova all not hopeless!

Tip: (1) Trekking $9.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Gytrash $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Trekking, 0.5 units WIN Gytrash

Odds Last Updated: May 29, 2021, 4:37pm (AEDT)

Quite like the set up for (1) Madam Rouge today. She’s had 11 weeks off since her last run and in typical Chris Waller style, has had a couple of trials to keep her ticking over. She ran first up in the Millie Fox Stakes last prep and arguably should have won. She was held up badly on the rail while Subpoenaed had momentum down the outside to win. Subpoenaed has since run 2nd in the G1 TAB Classic in Adelaide. Madam Rouge gets plenty in her faovur here, dropping back to a Listed race for fillies and mares, with a good draw in barrier 2, James McDonald booked to ride, firm ground and a distance she’s very effective at. Her only prior start here at Eagle Farm was in the Stradbroke Handicap last year, where she ran 2nd, beaten 0.2L. Does carry top weight today but there’s only a 4kg spread so she’s relatively well in. Keen on her each way.

(4) Exhilarates was disappointing first up in Adelaide but she did cop a fair bit of interference in the run. She’s had five starts when second up from a spell and has never finished out of the top two, so despite the bad gate, I’d expect her to show something here.

(17) Stellar Pauline has been fairly good this prep and she took the scalp of April Rain last start, who should be very hard to beat in Sydney today. Can be thrown in at odds.

(18) Shaikh is a three-year-old filly with some talent and I’d be wary of a positive market move for her first up today.

(3) Sweet Deal is undoubtedly one of the class runners in the race and has to be included after a last-start win in a similar race.

Tip: (1) Madam Rouge E/W $8.50/$3.20 Bet365

Also Backing: (4) Exhilarates $9.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Madam Rouge, 0.5 units WIN Exhilarates