Doomben Racing Tips: Thursday, February 4th

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The track condition is the massive query here. At the time of writing we’re looking at a Heavy 9, with potentially a drying track into the Soft region. This race is really about one horse, (8) Dovetail Diva who trialed very well leading in. Admittedly I haven’t seen the trial, but the distance she put between herself and the rest of the field speaks quite loudly. The 4.5 length win was done in reasonable time and when looking at the raced competitors, this is not a strong field. There’s a few unknowns with the unraced, but happy to take favourite.

Tip: (8) Dovetail Diva - $2.20 at Sportsbet

;sz=728x90;ord=[timestamp];dc_lat=;dc_rdid=;tag_for_child_directed_treatment=;tfua=?" WIDTH=728 HEIGHT=90 MARGINWIDTH=0 MARGINHEIGHT=0 HSPACE=0 VSPACE=0 FRAMEBORDER=0 SCROLLING=no BORDERCOLOR="#000000">

Odds Last Updated: February 5, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: February 5, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

The top weight (1) Euro Belle drops in grade from a first-up BM75 where she won after coming from eighth in running. It was a pretty handy win considering the leader Chivago looked to have them well and truly licked. That was on Soft going, which she has no trouble with. She has also placed on Heavy in the past. Today she gets the 3kg claim and the friendly draw where she should be able to rest during the run and head towards the outside rail to get into the good going (assuming it’s there)—flashing late.

The one she needs to beat is clearly (5) Sir Rocket, the well-traveled son of Smart Missile. Only ever appearing on Good tracks, the wet conditions are the query. He has never finished outside of the money, but unlike Euro Belle he goes up in grade and gets arguably his toughest test.  For me, they are tough to split without a clear indication on the track. If we stay with Heavy, we stick with the top weight. A two bet strategy for me.

Tip: (1) Euro Belle - $6.10 at Sportsbetting

Odds Last Updated: February 5, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: February 12, 2021, 11:46am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The best horse in the race appears to be (6) Miss Penfold who put a length on her competition last start at Eagle Farm. That was a BM70 over 1800 metres. Prior to that she was competing in BM78 class, and if looking at last preparation she was sixth in the Group 2 The Roses, finishing behind Vanna Girl—given, she was $101 that day. It was a pretty nice result. That run would win comfortably here. The conditions today are again the query, with no races on Heavy and only one crack on the Soft—and a pretty sticky inside gate. But it is hard to go against her, especially with Jim Byrne on board.

And yet, if the track is Heavy, I intend to also have something on another one. (1) Meteor Light is a genuine wet weather horse, with 14 starts for 2 wins and 9 places. At the current quote of $31, he suddenly comes into contention despite some average runs prior. He is going to find this might tough to win, but in the muck, an each-way play is worth a peanut.

Tip: (1) Meteor Light E/W $31 Bet365

Odds Last Updated: February 5, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: February 26, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)