Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Saturday, June 12th

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Thought this was one of the harder races of the day.

(8) Maotai was dominant on debut and I was keen to stick with him in the Spirit Of Boom Classic when he was scratched at the gates. He’s a complete barrier rogue from all reports so he may well not even go in, but if he does, he’ll take some beating. The horse he flogged on debut then came out and won easily.

(5) In The Congo won well enough on debut and the horse he beat then came out and won its next start, so the form looks solid. Should lead and take plenty of running down.

(1) Conexy is just about ready to win after two good runs back from a spell in Sydney.

(7) Uncommon James and (13) Lime Soda met on their respective debuts, with Lime Soda getting the win. Both have claims.

Tip: (8) Maotai $3.75 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Maotai

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Really intrigued to see the Australian debut of Irish import (5) Delphi here. He’s had five career starts and has won four of them, which all came last preparation. Those victories ranged from 1600m to 2800m, so it’s hard to know how sharp he’s going to be first up over the mile here, but the blinkers do go on for the first time, which signals some intent. The Australian weight-for-age ranks are thin, so he wouldn’t have to be a complete superstar to win this.

(2) Mister Sea Wolf might be the pick of the Waller trio given JMac is booked to ride him. He finished midfield in a strong edition of the Hollindale Stakes last start, which was won by Zaaki, who then came out and bolted in to win the Doomben Cup. Looks a good form reference.

(4) Ranier was beaten a length in the Stradbroke this time last year. Stepped away slowly last start but was ultimately a shade disappointing. If he jumps better today, he can be competitive.

(3) Kings Will Dream and (6) So You Win are the other two Waller runners and have to be included.

Tip: (2) Mister Sea Wolf $4.60 Bet365

Also Backing: (5) Delphi $6.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mister Sea Wolf, 0.5 units WIN Delphi

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

I think (2) Ayrton is clearly the best bet of the day here and I’m surprised we’re getting $1.80. He jumped $1.50 last start and obviously failed to get the job done, but I think he’ll take plenty of improvement from that run. That was his first go in the clockwise direction, his first time travelling, and the horse that beat him is going around in the Stradbroke and is no hack. Barrier 1 here, JMac on, expecting him to win and betting accordingly.

(1) Ellsberg is next in the market but I think if Ayrton turns up, he’ll go straight past Ellsberg. No excuses two starts ago and although he was better last start, I don’t think he’s the same class as Ayrton.

(5) Without Thinking creates interest. Has won his past three starts and was dominant last start. This is much harder obviously, but he’s a nice horse.

(7) Puntura has won his past four starts in New Zealand and makes his Australian debut here. Has been gelded since his last win and has never raced on a firm track which is a query.

Tip: (2) Ayrton $1.80 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Ayrton

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

The Brisbane Cup returns to 3200m this year and I’ll be backing two runners in the field of seven runners.

(1) Carif had been running well over slightly shorter trips in his first few runs back from his break. He always takes a few runs to get fit, so it was no surprise to see him improve markedly here last start, which was his fourth run back and saw him step up to 2400m. His only start over this distance was a win in the Sandown Cup last Spring and although he carries top weight here, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t right in the finish.

(5) Lord Belvedere is the other I’ll be on. My query is just if he’s at his very best, but he’s had absolutely no luck at all his past two starts. He was caught three-wide the trip from barrier 4 in the Gold Coast Cup two starts back, and it was a similar story when he drew barrier 9 last start and was planted wide throughout. He stuck on really well in that race though, and was still strong through the line despite his tough trip. He made my list of horses to follow on the back of that run and given was strong through the line over 2400m after sitting wide, it gave me the impression he should be very strong at 3200m. Gets barrier 3 today so should just land in a lovely spot and can bounce back.

Could make a case for most of these but those are the two I’ll be playing.

Tip: (5) Lord Belvedere $6.50 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Carif $4.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Lord Belvedere, 0.75 units WIN Carif

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Hardly any point previewing this as if (1) Zaaki turns up, it’s about times and margins. He was huge in the Hollindale Stakes two starts ago and handled his first Group 1 assignment with consummate ease in the Doomben Cup last start, giving his rivals a good old-fashioned flogging to win by 7L. Fair case to be made that he should be shorter than $1.50 here. Would he win this race more than 66.67% of the time? Highly likely.

Tip: (1) Zaaki $1.50 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Reckon this is a race packed full of value.

The first horse that caught my eye here was (4) King Of Hastings, who I put in my list of horses to follow after his first up run. He was well supported in betting on that occasion and just got caught wide the entire race. Forget he went around there and look to his terrific second up record, which reads two wins and two 2nds from four starts. Well drawn here in barrier 2, has a great record at the distance and has trialled well since that last run. Big chance at each way odds.

(6) Away Game is coming into this a bit under the radar, not much has been made of her. She was a horse I thought would dominate her two-year-old season but struggle to go on with it at three. She didn’t necessarily struggle, although she didn’t win last prep. Comes here first up no trial and did run a narrow 2^nd to Isotope fresh last prep, which is form good enough for this.

(7) In Good Time is the blowout chance in the race. She won a similar race to this on the same day last year. Difference on that occasion was she was third up from a spell, whereas she comes into this second up. She wasn’t bad at all first up in the Helen Coughlan, finishing midfield beaten 1.75L after sitting three-wide the trip. Can win on best form.

(11) Gee Tee Tee should have won first up and he atoned for that luckless run with a dominant win last start. That was only a Class 6 so this is a step up in grade and he takes on some good horses, but he does have a great third up record. Could win but at the price I’ll probably have to be against him.

(1) Blazejowski has a task ahead of him with 3kg more than any other runner, but he does have a lethal third up record with three wins from four starts. He’s another that could win without surprising.

Will have to take on (9) Garibaldi who had his chance last start, albeit in a tougher race. Great record at the track and distance and draws the inside, but can’t have him that short.

(12) Superium was sacked after his last run.

Wide open race! Something on King Of Hastings and In Good Time, but wouldn’t turn you off Blazejowski, Away Game, Gee Tee Tee.

Tip: (4) King Of Hastings $8.50 Sportsbet

Value: (7) In Good Time $27 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN King Of Hastings, 0.25 units WIN In Good Time

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

The first Group 1 of the day is the J.J. Atkins Plate for the two-year-olds and it’s not a simple one to work out.

(5) Port Louis was sensationally backed from $34 into $5.00 in the Champagne Stakes two starts ago and ran a huge race without much luck to finish 5^th. He then had five weeks off before running in the Sires’ Produce here last start. He ran well for 3^rd and may just have peaked on his run a touch, which should bring him on nicely for today’s race. Will need a good ride from Bowman with the wide draw, but with even luck he’ll be right in the finish.

The run of the race in the Sires’ was clearly (2) Converge who surprisingly settled near the back of the field from the wide draw. He ran 3^rd in the Champagne Stakes, ahead of Port Louis, and ran past him in the Sires’ last start. It was an enormous effort and signalled he should be very hard to beat in the Group 1 today.

(1) Tiger Of Malay was very ordinary two starts ago but improved off that to bounce back in the Sires’ last start. I have a theory that he’s not a wet tracker. His best runs have been on good tracks and his failures have all been in the wet. Draws wide here but likely to be right in the finish again.

(11) Giannis looks a typical Waller set up to me. He was vetted behind the gates and pulled up lame first up, and was sound in 5^th in the Sires’. Third up today, up to the mile, looks ready to run a big race and Waller always has them spot on for these races.

(10) Cape Breton is undefeated and comes into this on the quick back-up after winning in Sydney last weekend. Press Statement did a similar thing when he won a few years’ back so he’s not hopeless.

Tip: (5) Port Louis $5.00 Betfair

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Port Louis

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

The second Group 1 of the day is the Stradbroke Handicap.

I said “how far (7) Wild Planet in the Straddie” after his run in the Doomben 10,000 and I’m sticking to my guns here. He was under the stick and going backwards on the turn in the 10,000, before picking up and surging late to be beaten 0.4L. He won second up last prep and will undoubtedly be much better suited over 1400m than the 1200m he ran over first up. Four of his six career wins have been at this distance and I think he’s a huge chance. Just needs a great ride from Tommy Berry from barrier 15, but five of the last eight winners of this race have drawn barrier 13 or wider.

(8) Niccanova was another horse that made my list of horses to follow after his last start. He sat four-wide the trip at the back of the field in the Kingsford-Smith Cup and stuck on to be beaten 1.9L. Prior to that he beat Vega One, who then won the Kingsford-Smith. The form all lines up and with any luck at all from the gate, he can be super competitive at big odds. Worth noting he was beaten 0.4L in this race last year.

Of the lightweights, (16) Subpoenaed and (20) Amish Boy appeal the most, though the latter needs a scratching to gain a run.

(11) Vega One and (12) The Harrovian have obvious claims.

Tip: (7) Wild Planet $8.00 TopSport

Value: (8) Niccanova $18 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Wild Planet, 0.5 units WIN Niccanova

Odds Last Updated: June 12, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Tough race to finish on but I thought (6) Sweet Deal would be hard to beat. She’s in terrific form, beaten 0.9L in the Sapphire Stakes three starts back, before winning the Hawkesbury Crown. She then started a well-backed favourite in the Helen Coughlan Stakes last time out, but jumped awkwardly, settled back in the field from the wide gate and charged home to be beaten 0.75L. Draws perfectly in barrier 5 here, has an impeccable record at the distance and should be right in the finish.

(13) Lyre also comes out of the Helen Coughlan, where she sat four-wide the trip and was beaten a length. Hasn’t won in over two years but will be fighting out the finish as she normally is.

(9) Exhilarates won that Helen Coughlan and I was on her at double figures that day, but her second up record is significantly better than her third up record is, so I’ll oppose her here.

JMac is booked for (2) Odeum and all the gear comes off her. Her recent trial was good and if you ignore her last run, her form actually looks very good. Worth having something on at nearly double figure odds.

Tip: (6) Sweet Deal $5.00 Ladbrokes

Value: (2) Odeum $9.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Sweet Deal, 0.5 units WIN Odeum