Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Saturday, March 20th

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

 

Having been scratched from last weekend’s Gold Coast meeting, (2) Chico Milagro should get conditions to suit on Saturday at Eagle Farm. He returned solidly at Doomben a month ago, settling at the rear of the field with 59kg from a wide draw. He came home nicely to finish 3.5 lengths off the winner and should be able to settle a lot closer in the run from a nice barrier. His second-up stats read well, and he won’t mind any rain if it’s around, especially over a more favourable distance. He is definitely the bet in the opener.

(7) Dixon Bay is definitely the main rival to knock him off on the back of a 2.8 length win at Eagle Farm last month. The son of All Too Hard went straight to the front over the 1200m and with the favourite dropping back to last, Dixon Bay controlled the pace up front before kicking away. He won’t get the easy lead here though he has proven in the past that he doesn’t need to lead to perform well.

(3) Kalik looks the best of the rest.

Tip: (2) Chico Milagro $2.50

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Chico Milagro FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

 

The top two in the market took each other on last start and they both look the two again.

(3) Bold Executive led at a very slow pace last time out and had his chance, but he was overrun late in the piece by The Cullinan. He meets The Cullinan 2.5kg better off and I think the step up in distance is going to suit, especially with the lack of speed engaged. I think he can turn the tables here.

(1) The Cullinan is the obvious danger after that last start win. It was his first go at the 1800m and he handled the slow pace well to salute late in the piece. Much like Bold Executive, he has to handle 2200m for the first time, but he gives every indication that it shouldn’t be an issue.

(5) Point Counterpoint is a genuine stayer and will relish the 2200m after two solid 2300m placings. If this becomes a staying contest, look for him late.

Tip: (3) Bold Executive $3.10

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Bold Executive FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

 

I think the Garnett/Wiggins combination can go 2/2 here with (5) Back When having his first crack at the mile. He got back last start and the winner just controlled the race and kicked away in the straight whilst our bloke come from last and finished in second, 3 lengths off the winner. The issue here is that it does look a similar set-up with our bloke going back to last from the draw, so we are rolling the dice and hoping they try and sit closer or that the pace goes on. He is the one I want on top, but it is too risky to bet on.

(4) Abracadazzle steps back to the mile from a decent 1800m run. Her one attempt at the mile was good behind Tycoon Evie and Jetty and from the inside gate, she should be able to sit handy in the run which is ideal. The addition of Michael Rodd gives me the indication of intent, so expect her to go close.

(1) Bangers and Mayo will lead and give them something to catch.

Tip: (5) Back When $3.40

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

 

This is a wide open two-year-old race despite the market indicating otherwise.

(6) Seefeld went to the rear of the field last start from the wide draw and did a couple of things wrong throughout the race. In the straight, he got into a bumping dual meanwhile the eventual winner Valley Rattler was weaving his way through the field to gain clear running. Seefeld got into his gears late and hit the line well, finishing less than half a length back in third. He is drawn much better here and should sit a touch closer in the run and the step up to 1400m looks a logical step. Expect a much more improved effort.

(8) Leaglese had a much more improved run last start over the 1300m. She came with a really good run with the eventual winner The Stifmeister, finishing less than a length back in third. She gets a similar set-up here and should be thereabouts again at a nice price.

(4) King Gutho will be fighting out this finish on the quick back-up, providing they don’t accept for the Gold Coast.

Tip: (6) Seefeld $7.00

Also Backing: (8) Leaglese $8.60

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Seefeld FIXED, 0.5 unit WIN Leaglese FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

 

Just seven runners to go around here in the fifth and there doesn’t look to be a lot of speed on paper.

(4) Epic Girl is on the quick back-up from last weekend’s run at the Gold Coast. She had to do some work from the wide barrier to get to the leader though she wasn’t a fan of the heavy going and she ended up finishing 3 lengths back in third. She comes back 100m which suits and back on a dry deck will give the connections confidence. She is drawn in barrier 6 after scratchings and she will head to the lead without any issues. Most of her rivals will need the pace on, so expect her to dictate in front, especially with the 2kg claim of Adin Thompson.

(2) Royal Witness hasn’t won over 1200m before but there is a first time for everything. He hit the line well second-up over the 1000m, beaten half a length back in third. He will be just off the leaders here and if they go a touch too hard up front, she will be there to pounce.

(5) Maddi Rocks will need the pace on, but she should sit closer with the lack of runners in this race.

Tip: (4) Epic Girl $6.00

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Epic Girl FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

 

(4) Loveisilli looked a shell of his former self after two runs this preparation before a much more improved run last start. They settled in third and briefly got held-up up the turn before heading back to the inside to make a run. He was over run late but I have no doubt that this sort of set up will suit. He is drawn well and should settle forward once again and 2200m shouldn’t be an issue as he won over 2100 at Warwick Farm last preparation. He gets Justin Huxtable and his 1.5kg claim which will help him late in the race, so expect him to run a big race as he nears peak fitness.

(5) Joymaker had every chance last start and is going to need a couple of favours here to improve off two placings. She is a good chance though based on her recent efforts; she is too short in the market.

(6) Mishani Secret looks best of the rest.

Tip: (4) Loveisilli $7.50

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Loveisilli FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

 

I have been following this bloke since his first-up run at the Sunshine Coast and immediately put him in the blackbook waiting for this moment. (4) Golly Hutt was outclassed second-up when going down to Ventura Ocean and Wren’s Day, running 2.5 lengths back in third. The next start he finally stepped up to 1400m, but again ran into Wren’s Day, going down 1.8 lengths in second. The Better Than Ready gelding will be hitting peak fitness now and meets a much easier field than his last two whilst staying on top of the ground. The draw is ideal, and I will be very surprised if he isn’t fighting out the finish.

(9) Jakama is a deserved favourite going for three in a row whilst also peaking in fitness. He is coming off a 3-length win at Ipswich, but this looks much harder. He gets a nice 3kg claim which will bring him into this race nicely, but I feel he will be outclassed.

(1) All Important can run a solid race with the 3kg claim of Alex Patis and being back on top of the ground enhances his chances. He should run well but will be one run short.

Tip: (9) Jakama $3.05

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

 

I will be very surprised if (8) Ventura Ocean doesn’t salute here. The figure he ran in his first Australia start was very good and he can only improve into his second run. This is a big step-up in grade though he does drop 3kg to help his claim. He is drawn a touch awkward and will have to have some luck to get in from the draw. I would want him to drift a touch before becoming a bet.

(10) Baroda had excuses two back at Doomben before narrowly missing out on a win behind Take Tea. She drops half a kilo from that last run and with current scratchings, she comes into barrier 12, but she will need some luck from there.

(16) Scottish Mist is in some tremendous form but has to over come a poor draw to be a factor. She looked all but the winner in the shadows of the post last start before she was beaten by Jay Jay D’ar. If she can get into a good position early on, she may be able to pull this one off.

Tip: (8) Ventura Ocean $2.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 20, 2021, 6:36pm (AEDT)

 

Not a fan of this last race.

(11) Word for Word at her best wins this race. She ran a huge race behind Wolf Moon who controlled the pace well and kicked in the straight. She does have a task to get into a nice position from barrier 11 but I love the fact that they have stayed at a mile. She is too short for me to back, but she rates better then these.

(1) Bonaparte is drawn poorly but will look to lead, so not all is lost. He only goes up half a kilo from a half a length defeat to Gunnobe. That was his best rating since coming from Melbourne, but he will have to go to another level to be competitive in Saturday grade.

(7) Mosshiki does look the best of the rest.

Tip: (11) Word for Word $3.00

Betting Strategy: No Bet