Racing Tips

Eagle Farm Racing Tips: Thursday, January 14th

We head to Eagle Farm where we find a mixed-bag of races, the best being the BM78 over 1600 metres. The Horse has taken a look at the fields—and hopefully identified a few winners.

by
The Horse
13 January 2021

We head to Eagle Farm where we find a mixed-bag of races, the best being the BM78 over 1600 metres. The Horse has assessed Race 2, Race 3 and Race 8.

Race 1

Tab Venue Mode Mdn Plate (1200m)
2:21pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Tab Venue Mode Mdn Plate (1200m) 2:21pm (AEDT)
1. Amphawa (2) J: Allan Chau (57kg) T: Chris Munce	34	41	35	31
2. Archdeacon (6) J: Michael Rodd (57kg) T: R L Heathcote	2.8	2.7	2.85	2.9
3. Balmaurice (5) J: Ben Thompson (57kg) T: R G Lipp	31	34	40	31
4. Duyfken (7) J: Robbie Fradd (57kg) T: D J Hansen	14	14	16.2	14
5. Endinaye (4) J: Larry Cassidy (57kg) T: K M Schweida	13	15	14	14
6. Hats (9) J: Ryan Maloney (57kg) T: J P Wallace	17	18	20	16
7. Majestics Request (8) J: Bobby El-Issa (57kg) T: Chris Munce	4.5	4.4	4.55	4.2
8. Realaide (1) J: Matthew Mcgillivray (57kg) T: S W Kendrick
9. Reawaken (3) J: Andrew Mallyon (57kg) T: Annabel Neasham	3	2.9	2.8	3

Odds Last Updated: February 26, 2021, 1:27pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Hellbent First Crop M.M (Bm78) (1600m)
2:56pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Hellbent First Crop M.M (Bm78) (1600m) 2:56pm (AEDT)
1. Mount Tabora (4) J: Andrew Mallyon (59.5kg) T: A J & T Edmonds	2.7	2.8	2.85	2.8
2. Couldn't Refuse (1) J: Jim Byrne (57kg) T: Desleigh Forster	3.8	3.8	3.9	3.6
3. Wild Moon (3) J: Michael Cahill (56kg) T: L J Hatch
4. Fairy Me Home (6) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: C J Waller	3.6	3.5	3.45	3.5
5. Prinny's Success (2) J: Ben Thompson (55kg) T: R L Heathcote	9.5	9.5	9.8	10
6. Mishani Secret (7) J: Mark Du Plessis (54kg) T: L G Ross	7.5	8	7.5	8
7. Rothabye (5) J: Ms Kate Cowan (54kg) T: K Hickmott	91	201	161	151

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

The race favourite (2) Couldn’t Refuse won last start at Doomben over 1650 metres. He was sixth in running but came home stylishly to win beating Rebel Rock. Another two metres and Rebel Rock would have won with an even more impressive flashing run. It was a good overall performance, and on the back of it, he is a genuine contender here. Jim Byrne stays on board which is another positive. (3) Wild Moon was a winner last start at Ipswich. He really didn’t beat much home, and I suspect he won’t be good enough to beat the favourite.

The runner who may cause the upset is (1) Mount Tabora, who has placed twice in his two previous runs. Arguably that was in better company than the race Couldn’t Refuse was in. One query is that he really mixes his form. He has raced in Group company in the past, but that was some time back. If we focus on his latest run (on Soft) he posted a 34.39 last 600 metres compared to Couldn’t Refuse’s 34.66 (which was on Good). For me, that’s worth playing especially at the odds differential.

Tip: (1) Mount Tabora $4.00 Sportsbetting

Race 3

Sky Racing (Bm70) (1000m)
3:33pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Sky Racing (Bm70) (1000m) 3:33pm (AEDT)
1. High Cost (8) J: Nathan Fazackerley (63.5kg) T: K Hickmott	26	26	29	31
2. Defence Missile (3) J: Sheriden Tomlinson (61.5kg) T: L G Ross	5.5	4.8	5.1	5.5
3. Genzai The Wolf (7) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: David Murphy
4. She's Choosie (9) J: Ms Leah Kilner (58.5kg) T: G C Kilner	17	19	19.8	18
5. Clever Miss (6) J: Jake Bayliss (58kg) T: S W Kendrick	9.5	9.5	10.2	9
6. Trengganu (2) J: Ben Thompson (58kg) T: Tony & Maddysen Sears	2.3	2.35	2.35	2.3
7. Spinning Spirit (4) J: Michael Cahill (57.5kg) T: J A Hanna	10	11	11.2	10
8. Mishani Rebel (1) J: Michael Rodd (56kg) T: L G Ross	5	5	4.75	4.6
9. Toujours L'amour (5) J: Micheal Hellyer (54kg) T: B S Baldwin	16	19	17.6	18

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Like the look of (6) Trengganu first-up over the 100 metres. The race doesn’t appear to have much depth and the first-up win last preparation in a CL2 looks about the right form to be competitive again. He has built a reasonable resume with 3 wins and 5 places from 13 starts, and he has been racing really consistently since coming to QLD. Top selection in this field.

(7) Spinning Spirit is consistent and (5) Clever Miss is in contention.

Tip: (6) Trengganu $2.90 Bet365

Race 4

Cascade (Bm70) (1400m)
4:13pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Cascade (Bm70) (1400m) 4:13pm (AEDT)
1. Ruddock (6) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham	1.85	1.75	1.86	1.8
2. Jetty (1) J: Jim Byrne (58kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
3. Bangers And Mayo (2) J: Ms Georgina Cartwright (57.5kg) T: Tony & Maddysen Sears	23	26	31	23
4. Boom Spender (9) J: Ryan Maloney (57kg) T: Desleigh Forster	5.5	6	5.2	5.5
5. Treasure Of Gold (4) J: Les Tilley (56kg) T: M G Nolan	18	18	21.5	18
6. Bellissimi Amici (3) J: Ben Thompson (54.5kg) T: R L Heathcote	8	7.5	7.6	8
7. Mishani Machine (5) J: Mark Du Plessis (54.5kg) T: L G Ross	23	31	27	26
8. Little Miss Pixie (8) J: Ron Stewart (54kg) T: Tony & Maddysen Sears	6.5	6	6.7	6.5
9. Sip It Slow (7) J: Bobby El-Issa (54kg) T: S W Kendrick	26	26	27	26

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 5

Xxxx Dry Mdn Hcp (1400m)
4:53pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Xxxx Dry Mdn Hcp (1400m) 4:53pm (AEDT)
1. Come In Spinner (15) J: Michael Cahill (58kg) T: B J Lockwood	9.5	8	8.9	8
2. Kozluca (3) J: James Mcdonald (58kg) T: C J Waller	2.7	2.8	2.75	2.9
3. Le Heros (8) J: Michael Rodd (58kg) T: P H Duncan
4. Petrillo (2) J: Ben Thompson (58kg) T: S W Kendrick
5. Brief Sojourn (12) J: Ms Brooke Ainsworth (57.5kg) T: Kenneth Deacon
6. Green Protector (10) J: Jim Byrne (57.5kg) T: M J Dunn	31	34	33	34
7. Kungflu (6) J: Ryan Wiggins (57.5kg) T: Ben Ahrens	27	26	32	31
8. Savviness (17) J: Luke Tarrant (57kg) T: P H Duncan
9. A Big Chance (14) J: Andrew Mallyon (56.5kg) T: Ms J Aitkenhead	20	19	20.5	19
10. Miss Hustle (5) J: Josh Adams (56kg) T: Ms G Heinrich	18	15	20	17
11. Not Too Hard (1) J: Ryan Maloney (56kg) T: Billy Healey	8.5	10	8.8	8
12. Evita La Vie (7) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (55.5kg) T: J & C Meagher	27	31	30	26
13. Qiji Bellezza (9) J: Robbie Fradd (55.5kg) T: Billy Healey
14. Credible (13) J: Les Tilley (55kg) T: Matthew Dunn	91	151	121	126
15. Red Rubi (4) J: Ms Stephanie Thornton (55kg) T: S O'dea & M Hoysted	3.1	3.4	3.05	3.4
16. Semifox (11) J: Taylor Marshall (55kg) T: Desleigh Forster	15	16	15	14
17. Leicable (16) J: Micheal Hellyer (54kg) T: K R Kemp	151	151	221	201

Odds Last Updated: February 9, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Mount Franklin Hcp (C3) (1400m)
5:33pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Mount Franklin Hcp (C3) (1400m) 5:33pm (AEDT)
1. Emma's Jet (9) J: Jim Byrne (59kg) T: M J Dunn	9	9.5	8.7	9.5
2. Kateru (7) J: Larry Cassidy (59kg) T: Chris Anderson	8	8.5	7.1	8.5
3. Samurai (6) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (58kg) T: N J Doyle	15	17	17	15
4. Autumn Splendour (5) J: Michael Rodd (56kg) T: M J Dunn	21	21	23.5	23
5. Dee Day Diva (10) J: Ms Stephanie Thornton (55.5kg) T: R L Heathcote	19	26	19	23
6. Mitta Mary (8) J: Sean Cormack (55.5kg) T: B J Lockwood	11	11	10.2	9.5
7. Royal Sheen (3) J: Mark Du Plessis (55.5kg) T: Chris Munce	26	31	26.5	26
8. Astralis (4) J: Michael Cahill (54.5kg) T: M J Dunn	21	26	22	23
9. Lot's Wife (1) J: Robbie Fradd (54kg) T: A J & T Edmonds	3	2.7	3	2.9
10. Sister Kathleen (11) J: Taylor Marshall (54kg) T: C W Weston	41	51	53	41
11. Red Bloom (2) J: Ben Thompson (54kg) T: Tony & Maddysen Sears	4	3.9	3.9	4

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 7

Brc Giddy Up Club Hcp (C5) (1200m)
6:07pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Brc Giddy Up Club Hcp (C5) (1200m) 6:07pm (AEDT)
1. Momentum To Win (9) J: Ben Thompson (58.5kg) T: B & D Guy	46	67	55	61
2. Veranes (7) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
3. Captivator (5) J: Michael Cahill (58kg) T: Gregory Booth	21	21	24	21
4. Adoradancer (6) J: Sean Cormack (57.5kg) T: B J Lockwood	3.7	3.6	3.5	3.7
5. Rabbit Hunter (2) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (56.5kg) T: Ms K Purdy	3.1	3	3.15	3.1
6. Voulait (1) J: Jason Taylor (55.5kg) T: M F Hemmings	15	16	16.6	14
7. Perfect Aim (4) J: Taylor Marshall (54.5kg) T: P Duff	6	7	6	7
8. King Of The Desert (8) J: Ron Stewart (54kg) T: Ben Ahrens	4.5	4.8	4.6	4.2
9. Big Arjay (3) J: Luke Tarrant (54kg) T: T Button	15	16	16.8	15

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 8

Brc Membership Plus (C1) (1200m)
6:38pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Brc Membership Plus (C1) (1200m) 6:38pm (AEDT)
1. Courageous (7) J: Ben Thompson (59kg) T: M J Dunn	67	67	95	51
2. Cunnamulla (9) J: Robbie Fradd (59kg) T: A J & T Edmonds	16	18	18	16
3. Paddlepop (15) J: Ms Sally Sweeney (59kg) T: Cassie Saunders	101	301	201	201
4. Rari (14) J: Anthony Allen (59kg) T: Scott Henley	13	15	13.2	15
5. Sea Dragon (3) J: Nozi Tomizawa (59kg) T: Kerry Baumann	91	151	141	151
6. Tavis Town (5) J: Jim Byrne (59kg) T: P H Duncan	41	61	43	41
7. Return With Honour (6) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham	1.7	1.75	1.72	1.75
8. Wolf Moon (4) J: Ryan Maloney (57.5kg) T: Billy Healey	5	5	5.3	5
9. Daring Belle (12) J: Ms Kate Cowan (57kg) T: P Duff
10. Gaelic Puzzle (2) J: Michael Rodd (57kg) T: R L Heathcote	6	5.5	4.85	5
11. Kusama (13) J: Larry Cassidy (57kg) T: B J Smith
12. Abracadazzle (11) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: T J Gollan
13. Georgie's Pride (8) J: Taylor Marshall (55.5kg) T: Desleigh Forster	35	51	43	41
14. Mishani Machine (1) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: L G Ross
15. Sakura Star (10) J: Bobby El-Issa (55.5kg) T: Chris Munce

Odds Last Updated: January 15, 2021, 12:53am (AEDT)

The favourite (8) Wolf Moon is having his second career race start. He is 1 win from 1 start, but it’s been around 244 days since that run. That day, he drew away to win by over 3 lengths; it was pretty impressive. He has had one jump out leading into this race, and he won that, suggesting he has maintained some of that quality we saw first preparation. He draws an inside lane which should make this task easier, and he faces a field of runners who have struggled to get that second win. Ryan Maloney maintains the ride despite a change in stable. I am hoping to see some market support, but pretty keen to follow him either way.

Tip: (8) Wolf Moon $2.75 Sportsbetting

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.