Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Melbourne Cup Day

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The two-year-olds do battle down the straight to kick off Melbourne Cup day.

(1) Ingratiating won on debut a month ago over this track and distance, scoring by a length over General Beau, who went into that race as the $1.50 favourite. There was a 4.5L gap back to the 3^rd horse which suggests the first two might be pretty smart. He looks to be the horse to beat on that form and he’s a deserved favourite at $2.50.

There’s a number of unraced horses in the field. (6) Gulf Of Suez is one of two runners from the Maher/Eustace stable. He jumped out nicely at Caulfield. There’s been a couple of wild flucs in his price in the betting markets but I thought the double figures available now represented a decent price.

(4) Treporti ran 3^rd on debut at Bendigo and comes into this as a $19 chance. I think that’s over the odds. He started $2.70 on debut and that was on a heavy 9 track. He might improve out of sight back onto a firmer deck today. He looks the big value in the race for Danny O’Brien and Jamie Kah.

(8) Own The Night is another on debut from the Maher/Eustace stable with Hugh Bowman booked to ride. He jumped out well but the winner of the heat then went on to fail on debut, so there is some query about the form.

Tip: (1) Ingratiating $2.50 Bookmaker

Value: (6) Gulf Of Suez $13 Sportsbet & (4) Treporti $19 TAB

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Ingratiating, 0.5 units WIN Gulf Of Suez, 0.5 units WIN Treporti

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tricky race here for the 3YO fillies over 1400m.

(2) Joviality is a filly I’ve been with all preparation and I won’t be jumping off today. She put three wins on the trot together before enduring a tough run in the G1 Flight Stakes. The form out of that race behind Montefilia looks strong and she confirmed that with a good run in defeat in the Listed Reginald Allen Quality at Randwick last start. She looked all over a winner but just couldn’t get past Forbidden Love. Forbidden Love came to Melbourne and ran 3^rd beaten 0.6L in the G1 Empire Rose Stakes on Saturday, so if Joviality brings her A game she looks the one to beat.

(3) Twain’s Express was beaten a nose in the Listed William Crockett Stakes at Moonee Valley last start after sitting four-wide the trip. She must be rated highly here.

(4) Sweet Reply is another filly coming down from Sydney. She was a moral beat at Kensington last start, held up badly in the straight before getting clear when it was all over. That was only midweek company so this is a step up.

(9) Vancity Gem steps up sharply in grade off the back of two wins in Adelaide but I always respect this stable starting these types of horses in feature races, and (11) Aswaat is another that can be included at big odds.

Tip: (2) Joviality $3.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Joviality

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a bit of a no-bet race if I’ve ever seen one. The form here is moderate.

I’m with the two South Aussies in the race, those being (3) Alleboom and (9) Echoes In Eternity. Alleboom bolted in two starts ago at Morphettville, albeit in a weak race. He then started a well-backed favourite when stepping up in grade but was caught wide throughout and dropped away to finish last. Craig Williams is booked here and with even luck he can be very competitive.

Echoes In Eternity has only had one start, where she settled at the back of the field and motored home late to be beaten a neck. The winner of that race hasn’t franked the form but this filly looks to have a good engine and is open to plenty more improvement. $9.00 looks a reasonable price in a moderate field.

(1) Hard Landing has been ordinary in his past two starts but he’s been freshened up here. He has two wins from three starts when fresh and he’s undefeated at this distance. The blinkers go on for the first time and If he were to produce his best form, he’d be the one to beat.

Tip: (3) Alleboom $3.90 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Echoes In Eternity $9.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Keen to back the Waller horses here. (8) Yonkers put in two good efforts when ridden by apprentices early in his campaign, before coming to Melbourne last start with Hugh Bowman booked to ride. He enjoyed the step up to 2400m and won well. He rises in grade today and carries a similar weight to what he won with last start, and Bowman retains the ride. His only prior start here at Flemington was back in May when he failed on heavy ground, and he was sent for a spell straight after that. He’ll get his preferred firm ground here and with even luck he should be fighting out the finish.

(1) Djukon ran well against the pattern last start, on a day where it was tough to make ground from back in the field at Randwick. He was beaten 3.2L by the winner, who he meets again here, but his run was better than what it might seem on paper. He meets that horse 2kg better at the weights and should run well at $6.00.

(2) Knight’s Order was the horse that beat Djukon, and he landed some very good bets in the process. That was his second Australian start and his second run back from two years off the track. He’s a European horse that clearly has stamina and you’d think he could probably improve at just his third run this campaign. He’ll lead and take plenty of beating.

(13) Monmouth can be included at double figure odds.

Tip: (8) Yonkers $4.00 Bet365

Also backing: (1) Djukon $6.00 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Yonkers, 0.5 units WIN Djukon

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Looks a very good race for (2) Ain’tnodeeldun. He was touted as a leading chance in the Victoria Derby but the stable chose not to force him that way. He bolted in at Sale two starts ago over 1600m to break his maiden, and he followed that with a good win at Morphettville in the Hill Smith Stakes over this distance (1800m). The horse he beat that day was Victoria Quay, who then came to Flemington and won the G2 Wakeful Stakes on Derby Day. With a good run from barrier 10, he looks the most likely winner.

(1) Confrontational was a surprise winner of the Geelong Classic last start, and prior to that ran 3^rd to Embolism and Miss Inbetween. He can run well.

(8) Grinzinger Lord represents the Danny O’Brien/Damien Oliver combination and must be respected. He’s still a maiden but he gets onto firm ground for the first time which might help him. Watch the market – if he’s firm, he’ll be very competitive.

The Sydney horse (3) Acrophobic will appreciate getting back onto firm ground.

Tip: (2) Ain’tnodeeldun $2.10 Bookmaker

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Ain’tnodeeldun

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

One of the tougher races on the day here. I think the $41 about (8) Heavenly Emperor is over the odds. I might be going off one run too early, but he races very well here at Flemington. He’s had three starts at HQ for two wins and a 3^rd, where he sat three-wide the trip behind Buffalo River. He’s better second up and over 1600m, but I still think he could run a cheeky race first up today. He just needs to get across from barrier 12 to take up a position on speed, and he could be there for a long way.

(6) Outrageous is a horse that finds it hard to win, but if he turned up in his best form, he’d give this a real shake. His past three first up efforts have been very good, consisting of a win here at this track and distance, a luckless 3^rd to Signore Fox at Randwick and another sound 3^rd behind Snitz first up last prep. He’s drawn 1 here for Pike and from that gate, he should be prominent. $10 is a decent price for him.

(2) Groundswell has won his past two starts, and has won them well. He’ll go forward from the wide gate and can fight out the finish again.

I think we’ll see (12) Viral improve at big odds. His first up run wasn’t all that bad and he tends to improve second up. Include at $34.

Chances don’t end there!

Tip: (8) Heavenly Emperor $41 Bet365

Also backing: (6) Outrageous $9.00 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.25 units WIN Heavenly Emperor, 0.5 units WIN Outrageous

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

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Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another tough race. (15) Purple Sector has found career-best form in Sydney, producing a dominant win last start following a big run in defeat first up. The synthetic hoof filler goes on again which is a tiny query, but Craig Williams is a positive jockey booking and if he brings his current form, he’ll go very close.

(12) Galaxy Raider represents a touch of value at $17. He flew home in the VOBIS Gold Star at Moonee Valley last start and the step up to 1800m will suit. He doesn’t win out of turn but this is the sort of race he can surprise in.

(6) Junipal started favourite in Group 1 company last start and drops heavily in grade back to a Listed race. With that in mind, the $7.50 is probably a touch over the odds. He can bounce back.

(1) Homesman won easily first up but he did get things to suit, finding the lead comfortably on a day that really suited leaders at The Valley. He carries top weight of 62kg here and will have to be at his best to win under the conditions.

Tip: (15) Purple Sector $3.70 Palmerbet

Value: (12) Galaxy Raider $17 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Purple Sector, 0.25 units WIN Galaxy Raider

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Danny O’Brien has a good grip on this race.

(15) Cordilla has won four of her eight career starts, but that should probably read five from eight. She had no luck at all two starts go over this track and distance but atoned for that with victory at Cranbourne. She carried 61kg and went to the line without being fully tested, so even though the form is potentially a bit scratchy, she still has a bit of room for improvement.

(4) Fabric has returned in good order this prep. She was narrowly beaten by Sovereign Award last start, and Sovereign Award has since come out and won again. The horse that ran 3^rd was Chaillot, who ran 4^th in the Empire Rose Stakes on Saturday, beaten less than a length. So, that form all looks strong for a race like this. She’s drawn awkwardly in barrier 15 but I think the $9.00 is a decent price here.

If Fabric is a chance, then (9) La Tigeresa has to be a chance at $19. She finished 3^rd to Fabric two starts ago, beaten about a neck. She ran well again last start when running home strongly from the back of the field, and her overall record at the distance is very good. Throw her in your numbers.

(3) Lyre drops in grade and comes up favourite but she’s had plenty of chances and I’ll be against her today.

Tip: (15) Cordilla $4.40 Bet365

Value: (4) Fabric $9.00 Bet365 & (9) La Tigeresa $19 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Cordilla, 0.5 units win Fabric, 0.25 units WIN La Tigeresa

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

An absolute lottery to end the card. You could make a genuine case for half the field here.

(16) One More Jack makes his way to Melbourne as a winner of seven of his 11 starts. He was desperately unlucky not to win first up when he sat four-wide the trip and was beaten a nostril. He atoned for that with a dominant win last time out, and now comes across the border to test how good he really is. He’s won six from eight (should be seven) on good ground so he’ll get conditions to suit, he loves this distance and at $10 that’s the way I’m going to go.

(15) Yao Dash could blow these away but it’s hard to know where he’s at. He hasn’t win since his first two starts and he didn’t come up at all last prep, however I think his trials this time in have been improved. Always respect Gai bringing a horse like this to Melbourne in Cup week.

(17) The Astrologist carried a big weight to win easily first up at Geelong. He’ll appreciate the firm ground here and on his early career form, a race like this is well within his grasp.

(9) Shamino looks ready to peak third up and will appreciate getting back onto firm ground.

(7) Sirius Suspect loves the track and distance and will be ready fresh.

Tip: (16) One More Jack E/W $10/$3.20 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W One More Jack