Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Oaks Day

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

The more I look at this race, the harder I find (2) November Dreaming to beat. She’s always been a mare I have plenty of time for but a combination of bad luck, poor racing manners and quality opposition cost her a few more wins. Her win first up at Geelong was very good, settling near the rear, taking gaps and once she balanced up, she put the race away in a started $1.90 second up last prep and bolted in by 3.5L. The step up to 1700m is perfect, Willo sticks and this isn’t a harder race despite being up in grade.

(4) Night Witches could be the danger down from Sydney. Her run two back behind Joviality was good and she’ll be on speed from barrier one.

(1) Ocean’s Thirteen will give a sight in front and wasn’t beaten far in a group 3 mare’s race last start, despite finishing 7^th.

Top Pick: (2) November Dreaming $2.8 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN November Dreaming

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

Tricky race for the 2yo’s, made more complicated by the straight track. It’ll be interesting to see where they head for- Derby Day was all about swooping down the outside fence, but Cup Day seemed to favour those closer to the inside/middle of the pack.

(1) Fake Love was a soft winner at Caulfield on debut when able to lead and kick around the bend. This is a very different scenario drawn barrier 2 up the straight.

I thought one of the runs of that race was (5) Naples who got a long way back from a wide draw and was a bit wobbly around the turn but ran the fastest last 400m/200m of the race. Barrier one perhaps isn’t ideal, but I can see the straight suiting.

Stablemate (4) Cloudy was well beaten by Ingratiating on debut but gets Olly here. I assume Allen was given the choice to stick with Naples out of the two so perhaps don’t read too much into that.

(2) Tempest Charm was a big run from the back at The Valley and if they are coming towards the outside, she’ll get a great run in transit.

Top Pick: (5) Naples $8 Sportsbet

Danger: (2) Tempest Charm $6 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Naples, 0.5 units WIN Tempest Charm

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

Track pattern down the straight could be crucial here. (6) Ancestry is absolutely flying having won 3 on the bounce, the latest as the $1.26 favourite. He can go fast or slow in front and is just as effective off both tempos. The only query is the straight. His one try at the course (over 1200m) was a disaster. He raced in isolation down the outside fence and was beaten over 10 lengths. It wasn’t like that was an end of prep run either- he won his next two starts back around a bend by a combined 8L.

(7) Fiesta is on the 4 day backup from Derby Day. She was an impressive winner over 1100m when swooping down the outside. Not sure I love her back to 1000m so quickly, but she does get a similar set up here.

(3) Garner is a proven straight tracker. I think 1000m is his best distance too and he gets Willo here from barrier 6. I would’ve had Graff on top before being scratched and Garner’s run behind that horse was good when perhaps ridden a touch close to a strong speed.

(8) Villami and (9) Varda have claims. The form out of Villami’s first up win hasn’t been amazing with California Zimbol and Fituese beaten comfortably by Fiesta, whilst Varda draws barrier 1 and switches to a firm deck. If Ancestry handles the straight this time he should be winning, but at the prices I’ll have something small on Garner who sets up well.

Top Pick: (3) Garner $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Garner

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

The import (11) Tinadali has been well backed into early favouritism. He’s obviously very tough to get a handle on – his overseas form is okay without being amazing – he’s been in much better races than this but has been beaten big margins. The late market will be the best guide. I believe Bartholomeu Dias will be scratched after running at Kilmore on Wednesday.

(5) Adelaide Ace finally gets out to some sort of a trip and can improve. With 61kg on a leader’s highway last start, he ran well from midfield. His last run at 1800m was a win over Nonconformist, and he maps well from barrier 3.

The Sydney horse (8) Pancho ties in through Purple Sector who won on Cup Day.

Very tough race but I think Adelaide Ace can improve finally out to a trip.

Top Pick: (5) Adelaide Ace $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Adelaide Ace

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

(8) Housay is a promising horse and should be suited here. He looked like a star on debut when winning by 7 lengths at Wodonga, and backed it up at start number two, leading all the way with 62kg. Things didn’t go to plan last start after getting back from a wide draw, but he still finished off very strongly in an on pace dominated race to run 3^rd behind Whipcracker Way and Mrs Beckham.

The form out of that race is strong with Mrs Beckham winning comfortably at her next start and Whipcracker Way running a huge race against the pattern at The Valley. From barrier 2, Housay should be up on speed as he was in his first two starts and be hard to run down. A return to a good surface should be in his favour also.

(4) Star Missile has a solid first up record but got a bit lost last prep. His best is clearly good enough, with a win in the country final last year.

(3) Sky Punch was a shock winner in Adelaide last start, leading all the way to deny Morvada and Dalasan. He started $41 there and comes here off 10 weeks but does race well fresh. Happy to go with the promising horse with upside, who could turn out to be a bit better than these. I don’t think Housay will start a whole lot shorter, so I’m happy to bet late.

Top Pick: (8) Housay $3.5 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Housay

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

Happy to side with (5) Rocha Clock here. She’s another mare I’ve got plenty of time for and is quite talented on her day. She was a bit plain first up but improved sharply second up when hitting the line well for 6^th behind Emeralds and Greysful Glamour. She clearly beat home subsequent Empire Rose winner Shout The Bar there and should be peaking 3^rd up. She finished 2^nd to Dawn Passage when 3^rd up last prep which is very strong form, and Bowman takes the ride from a good barrier in 7. She should be able to sit midfield one off the fence and round them up in the straight.

The good track is strongly in her favour, as opposed to (3) I Am Eloquent who races better on soft ground. Her run last start behind Sovereign Award was very strong on a borderline heavy track, but her two runs prior on good tracks were just fair. She’s an obvious winning hope.

The 3yo filly (12) Miss Inbetween gets in with 52.5kg and will run well. Not sure she’s up to this class even with the weight pull but she’ll give them something to chase.

If (11) Game Of Thorns brought her best she’d be a huge chance, but she was awful last start at Warwick Farm.

Top Pick: (5) Rocha Clock $3.80 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Rocha Clock

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

A field of 16 country horses all set for this race, and we’re sitting around $8.50 the field. She’ll need some luck, but (13) Pres De Toi looks overs at $15. Two starts back at the mile she easily ran past (5) Highclass Harry, who won a bm78 at his next start. Pres De Toi meets him 1.5kg better for beating him home by 1.8L.

Last start she dropped back down to 1400m and ran on very strongly from an impossible position to finish 4^th to (2) Blinder, who she meets 3.5kg better. Jamie Kah replaces Zac Spain, which is a huge positive, and whilst barrier one isn’t ideal, you’re getting a decent price to bank on her getting some luck.

(12) Indiana Lily ran well first up behind (6) High Excalebration and looks better suited at a strong 1600m.

(8) Vungers did some early work to find the lead and ran very well with 62kg when finishing 2^nd to (10) Pierro Belle last start. Vungers meets her 2kg better and his 1600m form is very good, including a 2^nd to Rupture and a 3^rd to Aussie Nugget at the distance. He draws nicely in barrier 5 and whilst he’ll cop some pressure, he can lead at a solid clip and be hard to run down.

Something on Vungers and Pres De Toi in a dartboard job race.

Top Pick: (8) Vungers $10 Bet365

Value: (13) Pres De Toi $15 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Vungers, 0.5 units WIN Pres De Toi

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

CLICK HERE to view Tim Geers’ runner-by-runner preview of the G1 VRC Oaks!

Odds Last Updated: November 6, 2020, 12:17am (AEDT)

Probably the race of the day down the straight here, and it’s impossible to go past (6) Written Beauty, who looks a star in the making. Her two wins this prep have been outstanding. She was far too good for (13) Chianti first up at Canterbury, starting $1.85 and was utterly dominant last start at The Valley, forced to sit midfield when unable to cross. She was always travelling well and put paid to them in the straight, winning by 3.5L and breaking Nature Strip’s track record in the process.

The way she came from off the pace and balanced up last start fills me with confidence that she’ll have no problems handling the course and if she does, she’ll win. Chianti gets 5kg off Written Beauty, but I can’t see it being enough- Chianti was race fit and had the dream run up the inside but Written Beauty was racing away from her late.

(4) Minhaaj has run 3^rd to September Run at both starts this prep which is obviously very good form. We know she handles the straight and will be in the finish.

Prefer (2) Bella Nipotina on a wet track but she’ll run well down the straight for the first time.

(10) Celestine clearly beat (9) Maha here over 1000m which ties in easily.

(16) Amuri ran very well behind September Run on debut before a dominant 6.3L maiden win.

These are all a very even bunch of fillies, but Written Beauty is clearly the most talented and has even more scope to improve at just her 5^th start. If she runs up to her best, she’ll win. The price is no spoil, but we could look back on this race and wonder how they bet even money.

Top Pick: (6) Written Beauty $2.20 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Written Beauty