Flemington Racing Tips: Friday, January 1st

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Race 1

(3) Frost Flowers looked to have a bit in hand in a Mornington jumpout and gets Kah on from an inside gate, which can be very helpful for 2yo’s down the straight.

(2) Dauntless will go forward and looks to have a bit of talent. She’s jumped out down the straight which is always helpful and should be in it for a long way.

(5) Joseylin looked very impressive when closing late to win a jumpout here. She’s in the right camp and should be competitive.

Generally, I’m not a big player in 2yo races, preferring to work off exposed form. I’ll be taking an extra 30 minutes to get over NYE here.

Tip: (5) Joseylin $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(12) Feuermond looks progressive and has won his last two impressively as favourite. He draws barrier 15 which does look quite sticky. He’s the horse to beat but I’m happy to be against at the odds.

(11) Pres De Tois is one that interests me at a big price. I think she’s looking for 2000m now, with her last two runs over the mile very strong. Two back she finished 2^nd to Re Edit at The Valley, and last start she was just too far back from a wide gate but ran on well in a mainly on pace dominated race, finishing in the fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m. She draws beautifully in barrier 6, and although I don’t love the jockey booking, she looks a good roughie.

At even bigger odds, I’m going to spec (9) Bergamot. She’s done very little in two Australian runs, but up to the 2000m is a big tick. Back in NZ, this horse started $3.30 in a group 3 and was tough, only going down narrowly. She then wasn’t disgraced behind a very classy staying mare in the NZ Oaks, Jennifer Eccles. She’s crying out for 2000m and beyond, and I think you’ll get closer to 100-1 than the current 50-1.

(3) Playoffs looks well placed coming off a narrow defeat to the in-form Astraeus. The carpark draw makes things sticky, and 3kg claimer Will Price will need to pull out all the stops.

Tip: (11) Pres De Tois $17.00 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Bergamot $51.00 Sportsbet SCRATCHED

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Pres De Tois

 

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(5) Tralee Rose finished well to run 2^nd last start over 2500m, running the race fastest last 200m. She was jumping up from the 1800m there which was a strong effort, and gets Willo replacing Kersley.

(6) Reflect The Stars was backed off the map in the same race and had the shorter SP. I thought her run was equally as good, getting back to near last and making a long, sustained run, just peaking over the final 100m or so. She ran every sectional faster home, but Olly jumps off which I find interesting, although Mcneil is riding very well.

(4) Miyake won that race but goes D Lane to Walker, which is a negative. The horse got a much easier run in transit than the other two and despite being an obvious chance again, I thought he was a touch short.

(3) Sin To Win gets back to Flemington and back slightly in trip after running over 3200m. His win two back was good but he does have to concede these lightly raced horses 5kg.

Backing Reflect The Stars based off her SP last start and her effort off a sustained run, and saving on Tralee Rose who is the most progressive. Confident one of them goes close.

Tip: (6) Reflect The Stars $6.00 Sportsbet

Saver: (5) Tralee Rose $3.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Reflect The Stars, 0.5 units WIN Tralee Rose

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Quality edition of the Standish Handicap. I think there are only three legitimate chances, and I’ll start with the favourite (8) Defiant Dancer who won impressively at this T/D last start. He sat handy there and raced away to win by 3L in easier grade.

I’m going against him though, because (4) Sirius Suspect ticks a lot of boxes here. He was very good first up when he generally needs the run, only going down by 0.5L to Exhilarates and The Astrologist before recording a strong 1.5L victory at Pakenham. The form out of the race has been solid, and the big tick is getting back to Flemington, because all his best runs have been at this T/D. He should get control of the race and with 54kg and Kah nursing him along, he’ll be tough to run down.

(1) Graff is the class horse, reflected by his 59kg. His win first up over 1000m was excellent, beating Fabergino, before running a credible 6^th in the VRC Sprint, beaten 5.7L by Bivouac and finishing between Hey Doc and Tofane, both group one winners. Aside from the weight, my main query with Graff these days is 1200m. His win first up was at 1000m and the short course might be his go, but when his mind is on the job, he’s a very classy sprinter.

Tip: (4) Sirius Suspect $4.60 Bet365

Danger: (1) Graff $6.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Sirius Suspect, 0.5 units WIN Graff

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Happy to side with (1) Riding The Wave here, who looks a good price. He was a big winner two back at Ballarat, coming from a long way back to get up on the line, before settling much closer than usual at this T/D last start. He came off the bit quite early but picked up well to run 2^nd to Defiant Dancer, conceding that horse 4.5kg and beating 3^rd easily. He gets a handy 3kg claim for Will Price and this is an easier race with a few holes in the opposition.

(7) Alburq was okay first up and should strip fitter. He hasn’t won for a while and is still stuck on the 1 victory, but his best form gives him a chance.

(10) Modear was a strong winner first up over 1000m, coming from a long way back to charge home. Her form at Flemington is quite strong, with a win and a 1.8L 5^th in listed grade behind Sangria, just 0.75L off Dirty Work. She gets in with just 52kg after Tahlia Hope’s claim, and although I’d prefer her at 1100m, I think she’s come back well enough to warrant a play.

Tip: (1) Riding The Wave $6.00 Bet365

Value: (10) Modear $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Riding The Wave, 1 unit WIN Modear

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Gee this is very tough. (2) Shahzade was very good late first up at Pakenham and probably should have won. She was a good winner 2^nd up last prep, but I just wonder how far she’ll get back from the wide gate. Any rain around would help her case.

(10) Brazen Song is very consistent and maps well. She was very solid sitting 3 wide on speed at Caulfield last start.

(6) Kuramae won 2^nd up last prep at this T/D. She draws well in barrier 5, which should mean she won’t get back to last.

(4) Witchfulthinking was solid in the Brazen Song race when leading. If she gets things her own way out in front, she’ll be there for a long time.

Nearly nothing would shock here. More than happy to shoulder arms from a betting perspective.

Tip: (10) Brazen Song $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Sticking with (7) Nikau Spur to win again, after he bolted in by nearly 4L at The Valley for us last start. It was an impressive win, and I think he’ll be better suited at Flemington and up in trip again. His final 200m was the best part of his race, coming home in 11.82, the 6^th fastest of the night and only 0.12 seconds of the best, which was in the 955m race. The horse he beat there, Supreme Thunder, whilst still a maiden, does have some strong 3yo benchmark form. There was a whopping 4.75L between 2^nd and 3^rd, only adding merit to Nikau Spur’s win.

(3) Librate looks the main danger. She didn’t show much first up but improved sharply last start, sitting handy and boxing on well behind Lunakorn and Re Edit. She maps well from barrier 3 but has to concede 3kg to what could be a pretty handy horse.

(5) Hasseltoff just missed last start at this T/D and has obvious claims, but I’d much rather be with Nikau Spur at the same quote.

Tip: (7) Nikau Spur $3.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Nikau Spur

 

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

I’m jumping off the favourite (3) Fundraiser after making him my best bet at his last two starts, which he’s won nicely. This is another step up in grade and he has to carry 61kg, but the main query is 1600m which he’s never seen before.

(14) Quantum Mechanic was okay first up, but generally races much better second up, winning at Sale last prep. She then went on to run some very good races at the mile behind Cordilla and Grand De Flora. She drops 2.5kg here, down to 57.5kg, and Kah keeps the ride. The barrier is a touch sticky, but she’s generally quick enough to take up a position in the first 5 or 6 from wide gates.

(4) Caffrey was forced to do too much work here over 1800m last start and was entitled to tire.

(1) Straouz beat him home there and drops back to the 1600m. She finished close up two back at Pakaneham, but does have a big weight and wide draw to contend with.

Tip: (14) Quantum Mechanic $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Quantum Mechanic