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Flemington Racing Tips: Friday, January 1st

New Year’s Day racing at Flemington, and Trent Crebbin has analysed the eight race card here.

flemington racing tips

New Years Day racing takes place at Flemington this Friday, with the Bagot Handicap and Standish Handicap headlining the eight-race program. 

Trent Crebbin has analysed every race on the program, and his best bet comes up in Race 7. 

The rail is out three metres, and the track is rated a good 4. 

Best Bet- Race 7 (7) Nikau Spur

Best Value- Race 2 (11) Pres De Tois & (9) Bergamot

 

BetDeluxe

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Race 1

New Year Sprint (1000m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

Race 1

New Year Sprint (1000m)
2:25pm (AEDT)

1. Andalusia (8) J: John Allen (56kg) T: James Cummings
111111.211
2. Dauntless (10) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
887.97.5
3. Frost Flowers (2) J: Jamie Kah (56kg) T: A & S Freedman
5.565.85.5
4. I Am Enchanting (1) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: D T O'brien
141614.615
5. Joseylin (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
2.92.92.953
6. Loud Attraction (4) J: Jordan Childs (56kg) T: K L Corstens
46514761
7. Tayla's Moment (5) J: Daniel Moor (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
121112.212
8. Tiz My Bay (9) J: Dean Yendall (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
9. Translation (7) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: James Cummings
655.55.5
10. Wanda's Legacy (11) J: Michael Walker (56kg) T: Levi Kavanagh
131514.214
11. Wedges Are Back (3) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Race 1

(3) Frost Flowers looked to have a bit in hand in a Mornington jumpout and gets Kah on from an inside gate, which can be very helpful for 2yo’s down the straight.

(2) Dauntless will go forward and looks to have a bit of talent. She’s jumped out down the straight which is always helpful and should be in it for a long way.

(5) Joseylin looked very impressive when closing late to win a jumpout here. She’s in the right camp and should be competitive.

Generally, I’m not a big player in 2yo races, preferring to work off exposed form. I’ll be taking an extra 30 minutes to get over NYE here.

Tip: (5) Joseylin $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- No Bet

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Race 2

Welcome 2021 (Bm70) (2000m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Welcome 2021 (Bm70) (2000m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

1. Humble Pie (18) J: Melissa Julius (62kg) T: Symon Wilde
121212.212
2. Shepard (5) J: Campbell Rawiller (62kg) T: P G Moody
61917981
3. Playoffs (17) J: Will Price (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
15171413
4. Creative Hero (1) J: Liam Riordan (60.5kg) T: Shea Eden
5. Doroza (12) J: Lachlan King (60kg) T: Matthew Cumani
232120.523
6. Not Mine (2) J: Craig Williams (60kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
109.59.910
7. Laundy (8) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
776.67
8. Our Chevalier (9) J: Michael Walker (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
171917.217
9. Bergamot (3) J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
10. Excelsior Star (10) J: Declan Bates (59kg) T: P A Preusker
41514341
11. Pres De Toi (6) J: Tahlia Hope (59kg) T: P A Chow
151615.616
12. Feuermond (15) J: Jye Mcneil (58.5kg) T: L Smith
2.92.93.052.9
13. Nordic Symphony (4) J: Beau Mertens (58.5kg) T: Symon Wilde
46414351
14. Sam Slick (13) J: Dean Yendall (57.5kg) T: G Eurell
41413741
15. Unrealistic (16) J: Teodore Nugent (57.5kg) T: G Withers
251201301251
16. Muleta (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: Brett Scott
26312826
17. Zoulah (11) J: Jamie Kah (56kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
99.59.19
18. Black Beau Tie (14) J: Michael Dee (55.5kg) T: G F Wheeler
34343034

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(12) Feuermond looks progressive and has won his last two impressively as favourite. He draws barrier 15 which does look quite sticky. He’s the horse to beat but I’m happy to be against at the odds.

(11) Pres De Tois is one that interests me at a big price. I think she’s looking for 2000m now, with her last two runs over the mile very strong. Two back she finished 2nd to Re Edit at The Valley, and last start she was just too far back from a wide gate but ran on well in a mainly on pace dominated race, finishing in the fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m. She draws beautifully in barrier 6, and although I don’t love the jockey booking, she looks a good roughie.

At even bigger odds, I’m going to spec (9) Bergamot. She’s done very little in two Australian runs, but up to the 2000m is a big tick. Back in NZ, this horse started $3.30 in a group 3 and was tough, only going down narrowly. She then wasn’t disgraced behind a very classy staying mare in the NZ Oaks, Jennifer Eccles. She’s crying out for 2000m and beyond, and I think you’ll get closer to 100-1 than the current 50-1.

(3) Playoffs looks well placed coming off a narrow defeat to the in-form Astraeus. The carpark draw makes things sticky, and 3kg claimer Will Price will need to pull out all the stops.

Tip: (11) Pres De Tois $17.00 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Bergamot $51.00 Sportsbet SCRATCHED

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Pres De Tois

 

Ladbrokes

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Race 3

Bagot Hcp (2800m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Bagot Hcp (2800m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

1. Wentwood (6) J: John Allen (60kg) T: Maddie Raymond
12121312
2. Djukon (8) J: Damien Oliver (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
9.51099.5
3. Sin To Win (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
11111111
4. Miyake (7) J: Michael Walker (54kg) T: C J Waller
4.44.84.64.6
5. Tralee Rose (2) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Symon Wilde
2.92.92.952.8
6. Reflect The Stars (5) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: D T O'brien
5.55.55.46
7. Diamondsandbubbles (1) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: D R Brideoake
41615351
8. Saint Eustace (9) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
12131212
9. Steam Roller (3) J: Dean Yendall (54kg) T: Simon Ryan
31343534

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(5) Tralee Rose finished well to run 2nd last start over 2500m, running the race fastest last 200m. She was jumping up from the 1800m there which was a strong effort, and gets Willo replacing Kersley.

(6) Reflect The Stars was backed off the map in the same race and had the shorter SP. I thought her run was equally as good, getting back to near last and making a long, sustained run, just peaking over the final 100m or so. She ran every sectional faster home, but Olly jumps off which I find interesting, although Mcneil is riding very well.

(4) Miyake won that race but goes D Lane to Walker, which is a negative. The horse got a much easier run in transit than the other two and despite being an obvious chance again, I thought he was a touch short.

(3) Sin To Win gets back to Flemington and back slightly in trip after running over 3200m. His win two back was good but he does have to concede these lightly raced horses 5kg.

Backing Reflect The Stars based off her SP last start and her effort off a sustained run, and saving on Tralee Rose who is the most progressive. Confident one of them goes close.

Tip: (6) Reflect The Stars $6.00 Sportsbet

Saver: (5) Tralee Rose $3.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Reflect The Stars, 0.5 units WIN Tralee Rose

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Race 4

Standish Hcp (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Standish Hcp (1200m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Graff (4) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: D T O'brien
5554.8
2. William Thomas (3) J: Michael Dee (55.5kg) T: J W Price
121312.212
3. Morrissy (2) J: Craig Williams (54.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
109.510.210
4. Sirius Suspect (6) J: Jamie Kah (54kg) T: Saab Hasan
2.82.82.82.9
5. Southern Lad (1) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: J A O'shea
111312.412
6. Neighbourhood (5) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: E Jusufovic
212123.521
7. Albumin (8) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
27343034
8. Defiant Dancer (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse (54kg) T: P Stokes
4.244.253.9

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Quality edition of the Standish Handicap. I think there are only three legitimate chances, and I’ll start with the favourite (8) Defiant Dancer who won impressively at this T/D last start. He sat handy there and raced away to win by 3L in easier grade.

I’m going against him though, because (4) Sirius Suspect ticks a lot of boxes here. He was very good first up when he generally needs the run, only going down by 0.5L to Exhilarates and The Astrologist before recording a strong 1.5L victory at Pakenham. The form out of the race has been solid, and the big tick is getting back to Flemington, because all his best runs have been at this T/D. He should get control of the race and with 54kg and Kah nursing him along, he’ll be tough to run down.

(1) Graff is the class horse, reflected by his 59kg. His win first up over 1000m was excellent, beating Fabergino, before running a credible 6th in the VRC Sprint, beaten 5.7L by Bivouac and finishing between Hey Doc and Tofane, both group one winners. Aside from the weight, my main query with Graff these days is 1200m. His win first up was at 1000m and the short course might be his go, but when his mind is on the job, he’s a very classy sprinter.

Tip: (4) Sirius Suspect $4.60 Bet365

Danger: (1) Graff $6.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Sirius Suspect, 0.5 units WIN Graff

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Race 5

Summer Twilight Series (Bm78) (1200m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Summer Twilight Series (Bm78) (1200m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Riding The Wave (7) J: Will Price (61.5kg) T: L Smith
3.53.63.653.6
2. Designer Chef (11) J: Arron Lynch (60kg) T: Mark C Webb
3. I'm Telling Ya (9) J: Dean Yendall (59.5kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
76.56.57
4. Run To Perfection (5) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: D T O'brien
10119.810
5. Condo's Express (3) J: Melissa Julius (58.5kg) T: Richard Laming
212126.523
6. Montenegro Man (1) J: Jamie Kah (58.5kg) T: M A Kavanagh
6.56.56.56
7. Alburq (6) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: M D Moroney
665.46
8. Hint Of Mint (10) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Andrew Noblet
14151515
9. Carlingford (8) J: Ms Jessie Philpot (55kg) T: M Sell
35414341
10. Modear (2) J: Tahlia Hope (54kg) T: Patrick Payne
65.566
11. The Rich Fisher (4) J: Michael Poy (54kg) T: Adam O'neill
101151171126

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Happy to side with (1) Riding The Wave here, who looks a good price. He was a big winner two back at Ballarat, coming from a long way back to get up on the line, before settling much closer than usual at this T/D last start. He came off the bit quite early but picked up well to run 2nd to Defiant Dancer, conceding that horse 4.5kg and beating 3rd easily. He gets a handy 3kg claim for Will Price and this is an easier race with a few holes in the opposition.

(7) Alburq was okay first up and should strip fitter. He hasn’t won for a while and is still stuck on the 1 victory, but his best form gives him a chance.

(10) Modear was a strong winner first up over 1000m, coming from a long way back to charge home. Her form at Flemington is quite strong, with a win and a 1.8L 5th in listed grade behind Sangria, just 0.75L off Dirty Work. She gets in with just 52kg after Tahlia Hope’s claim, and although I’d prefer her at 1100m, I think she’s come back well enough to warrant a play.

Tip: (1) Riding The Wave $6.00 Bet365

Value: (10) Modear $8.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Riding The Wave, 1 unit WIN Modear

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Race 6

Victorian Jockeys Assoc.-Bm70 (1400m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Victorian Jockeys Assoc.-Bm70 (1400m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Metronome (16) J: Harry Grace (62kg) T: M C Kent
2. Shahzade (14) J: Matthew Cartwright (61.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
6.56.56.37
3. Mariamia (15) J: Unknown (61kg) T: Shane Stockdale
4. Witchfulthinking (3) J: Will Price (61kg) T: Andrew Noblet
151614.615
5. Dee Keepa (2) J: Lachlan King (60.5kg) T: L Smith
131414.612
6. Kuramae (5) J: Lewis German (60.5kg) T: M J Williams
554.85
7. Our Birdsong (11) J: Teodore Nugent (60.5kg) T: M D Moroney
27212931
8. Hasstobegood (9) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: G M Begg
99.58.79.5
9. Stay Gold (1) J: Jamie Mott (59.5kg) T: D T O'brien
7.577.47.5
10. Brazen Song (4) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: S P Nichols
5.55.55.85.5
11. Gina Lola (10) J: Liam Riordan (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
41414034
12. Jazz Star (13) J: Campbell Rawiller (59kg) T: P A Chow
34313134
13. Maggie Miss (7) J: Craig Williams (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
272126.526
14. Lady D'oro (12) J: Matthew Allen (58.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
161415.814
15. Mrs Sippy (6) J: Beau Mertens (58.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
35344134
16. Stratessa (8) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: Henry Dwyer
35414741
17. Intellective (17) J: Dean Yendall (57kg) T: M J Williams

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Gee this is very tough. (2) Shahzade was very good late first up at Pakenham and probably should have won. She was a good winner 2nd up last prep, but I just wonder how far she’ll get back from the wide gate. Any rain around would help her case.

(10) Brazen Song is very consistent and maps well. She was very solid sitting 3 wide on speed at Caulfield last start.

(6) Kuramae won 2nd up last prep at this T/D. She draws well in barrier 5, which should mean she won’t get back to last.

(4) Witchfulthinking was solid in the Brazen Song race when leading. If she gets things her own way out in front, she’ll be there for a long time.

Nearly nothing would shock here. More than happy to shoulder arms from a betting perspective.

Tip: (10) Brazen Song $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- No Bet

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Race 7

Off The Track Program (Bm70) (1700m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Off The Track Program (Bm70) (1700m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

1. Independent Road (11) J: Lewis German (61kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
131312.213
2. La Falaise (8) J: Melissa Julius (61kg) T: Henry Dwyer
46345141
3. Librate (3) J: Michael Dee (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
999.19.5
4. Florent (5) J: Harry Grace (59kg) T: A W Noonan
151514.616
5. Hasseltoff (1) J: Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
43.94.053.9
6. Highland Jakk (10) J: Liam Riordan (57.5kg) T: Robert Hickmott
141514.413
7. Nikau Spur (9) J: John Allen (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.52.72.452.5
8. Vibrant Glider (7) J: Will Price (54.5kg) T: P Stokes
17181717
9. Spanish Snitzel (12) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: C V Kelly
51416161
10. Lobster Noodles (4) J: Lachlan King (54kg) T: L & T Corstens
31343034
11. Plucky Pirouette (2) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Caroline Jennings
31343231
12. Redissent (6) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: J F Moloney
61616761

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Sticking with (7) Nikau Spur to win again, after he bolted in by nearly 4L at The Valley for us last start. It was an impressive win, and I think he’ll be better suited at Flemington and up in trip again. His final 200m was the best part of his race, coming home in 11.82, the 6th fastest of the night and only 0.12 seconds of the best, which was in the 955m race. The horse he beat there, Supreme Thunder, whilst still a maiden, does have some strong 3yo benchmark form. There was a whopping 4.75L between 2nd and 3rd, only adding merit to Nikau Spur’s win.

(3) Librate looks the main danger. She didn’t show much first up but improved sharply last start, sitting handy and boxing on well behind Lunakorn and Re Edit. She maps well from barrier 3 but has to concede 3kg to what could be a pretty handy horse.

(5) Hasseltoff just missed last start at this T/D and has obvious claims, but I’d much rather be with Nikau Spur at the same quote.

Tip: (7) Nikau Spur $3.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Nikau Spur

 

Sportsbetting

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Race 8

Australian Trainers Assoc-Bm70 (1600m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Australian Trainers Assoc-Bm70 (1600m)
6:55pm (AEDT)

1. Starouz (15) J: Liam Riordan (61.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
2. Sunday Pray (14) J: Teodore Nugent (61.5kg) T: J F Moloney
46414341
3. Fundraiser (9) J: Craig Williams (61kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
32.92.953
4. Caffrey (3) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: P G Moody
5.55.55.45.5
5. Hostar (12) J: Melissa Julius (59.5kg) T: P A Chow
6. Florida Dream (5) J: Lewis German (59kg) T: Luke Oliver
121213.213
7. Robe De Fete (1) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
34343434
8. Unfair Dismissal (8) J: Ben Allen (59kg) T: D M Noonan
51515351
9. Anirishman (2) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
777.16.5
10. Hunamosa (6) J: Billy Egan (58.5kg) T: Luke Oliver
41515151
11. Into Rio (13) J: Daniel Moor (58.5kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
126201131151
12. Revlis (4) J: Declan Bates (58.5kg) T: P A Preusker
161515.815
13. Night King (7) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: Jamie Scott
1019114181
14. Quantum Mechanic (10) J: Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
666.26
15. Make Mine Hennessy (11) J: Patrick Moloney (54kg) T: Saab Hasan
121312.412

Odds Last Updated: January 2, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

I’m jumping off the favourite (3) Fundraiser after making him my best bet at his last two starts, which he’s won nicely. This is another step up in grade and he has to carry 61kg, but the main query is 1600m which he’s never seen before.

(14) Quantum Mechanic was okay first up, but generally races much better second up, winning at Sale last prep. She then went on to run some very good races at the mile behind Cordilla and Grand De Flora. She drops 2.5kg here, down to 57.5kg, and Kah keeps the ride. The barrier is a touch sticky, but she’s generally quick enough to take up a position in the first 5 or 6 from wide gates.

(4) Caffrey was forced to do too much work here over 1800m last start and was entitled to tire.

(1) Straouz beat him home there and drops back to the 1600m. She finished close up two back at Pakaneham, but does have a big weight and wide draw to contend with.

Tip: (14) Quantum Mechanic $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Quantum Mechanic

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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