Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 19th

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

This is a complete no bet race in my opinion. I can’t get (3) Bartholomeu Dias anywhere near as short as $2.60. The step up to 2600m is a big query, although some of his overseas form a long time ago suggested it’d be okay. He was beaten fair and square as favourite in the Kyneton Cup, and was forced to sit 3 wide last start but did drop out pretty quickly. I’d want $4.00 to back him and I doubt we get it.

 

(1) Princess Jenni is the best horse in the race but has to concede 6kg as a mare to the favourite and has had her issues this prep. She should be fitter here, but the weight is enough to put me off.

 

Tip: (3) Bartholomeu Dias $2.60 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy – No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Against the favourite (3) Written Miss here. She’s 2 from 2 but both wins have come over 1000m and she’s had an easy lead around a bend both times. 1200m down the straight is a completely different scenario to 1000m around Pakenham, and I think she’s beatable, especially having to concede weight to some males.

 

(6) Zion looks a good bet. He started $3.30 on debut at Canterbury earlier this year behind Untamed, who ran very well in some group races in Sydney. They put Zion away and brought him back to Melbourne and resumed over 1000m and won very nicely, sitting back and pouncing in the straight. The form is already stacking up, with the 2^nd and 3^rd placed horses winning their next starts. 1200m should suit perfectly and at $8.50 he’s a good price.

 

(7) Real Feeling has to be the danger. She bolted in as $2.60 favourite first up at Wodonga and looks smart. I could entertain a saver on her.

 

Tip: (6) Zion $9.00 TAB
Saver: (7) Real Feeling $4.40 TAB

 

Betting Strategy – 1.5 units WIN Zion, 0.5 units WIN Real Feeling

 

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(3) Sensationalisation does look hard to beat again here. I’ve always had an opinion of this horse after two very good 2yo runs, the first when running the fastest splits of the day at Sandown and the second when making a long run behind Flinders River at Caulfield. She returned with a dominant win at Geelong over 1300m, sitting on speed and travelling beautifully into the race to win comfortably. That was off just one 950m trial, so I think there’s more fitness to come. Olly draws barrier 2 here and whilst she will need a touch of luck, she showed last start she can be tactically versatile, so if the option to push forward is there she can do.

 

(10) Thunder Peak looks like she’s crying out for 1400m now after getting two far back in a sit and sprint at The Valley. Jamie Kah replaces Lachie King, which is a big jockey change, and of the few out of that race I thought she was the one that appeared the best value given how unsuited she was.

 

(6) Bella Tiara was a good winner at Warrnambool first up and has to be respected.

 

Tip: (3) Sensationalisation $2.90 TAB

Value: (10) Thunder Peak $10.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy – 2.5 units WIN Sensationalisation, 0.5 units WIN Thunder Peak

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Gee this is tough. At big odds, (3) Safin isn’t hopeless. He hasn’t won in forever, but his last start run behind Tavidance and Night’s Watch was quite solid at Pakenham. He beat home a few handy horses there in Gold Fields and All Too Huiying, and he should be at peak fitness 3^rd up. Drawn nicely in barrier 3, he can sit midfield off a good speed and run well.

 

If (4) Skiddaw can repeat what he did last start he’ll be hard to beat. He sat outside the leader and careered away to win dominantly, but it was an on pace dominated race and he won’t get the same cosy run on speed here.

 

(1) Vungers will be the one ensuring a solid tempo. He’s absolutely flying having bolted in with his last two in the country but was very well weighted and had everything in his favour last start. There’s more pressure here and he’ll have to improve again.

 

Tip: (3) Safin $18.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Safin

 

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

I’ll be waiting because I think he’ll get out to double figures, but I’m interested in (10) Garimpeiro here first up for L Smith. He’s had the 5 career starts and won 2, but there’s definitely some talent there, as evidenced by his run at The Valley behind Smoke Bomb when running the race fastest last 1000m and 800m on a day that was very hard to make ground. 1400m is a good starting point, although I expect him to get up to 2000m this prep, and he draws to get a suck run behind the speed. I think he will get out a bit in the market and at the odds I could have something on.

 

(11) Saccharo was good first up off a long break. He’s obviously quite talented- finishing 6L off The Autumn Sun in the Caulfield Guineas is nothing to be ashamed of, but it’ll be interesting to see how he performs 2^nd up.

 

(8) King Magnus was a good run in the same race and had won two in a row prior.

 

Tip: (10) Garimpeiro $7.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Garimpeiro

 

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

It doesn’t get any easier here, but I do think there are a couple at odds that are worthy of a bet. (1) Walking Flying has finished 9^th at both runs this prep, but I think she can find some form here. First up she actually ran fairly well in a strong race dominated by those on speed at Ballarat where making ground was very difficult. She then went to Pakenham and I’m just putting a line through the run altogether. She played up before the race, never looked comfortable and was basically eased out of the race. She’s a good mare when right with a fast finishing 3^rd in an SA group 3, and she did win the Silver Bowl final at this T/D at the end of last prep.

 

If (7) Lamu had drawn out a bit I’d be keener, but at the price I still think she’s value. She just got too far back in a slowly run race first up. She actually ran at this T/D 2^nd up last prep and also drew barrier one, resulting in her being held up badly in the straight when running 3^rd to Naivasha. She draws the inside again which is the knock, but Damien Lane is absolutely airborne and will work some magic.

 

(8) Librate did nothing first up after drifting heavily. She’s a good mare and I think she’ll improve sharply 2^nd up.

 

You could make a case for most of these, but I’ll be having something small on the three mentioned and hoping for a result.

 

Tip: (1) Walking Flying $15.00 Palmerbet

Danger: (7) Lamu $10.00 Bet365

Value: (8) Librate $23.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Walking Flying, 0.5 units WIN Lamu, 0.25 units WIN Librate

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(10) Can’t Be Done looks well placed here 3^rd up. He pulled up lame first up down the straight but was only beaten 3L before running on very nicely for 4^th behind Sisstar and The Astrologist, recording the race fastest last 600m. He draws out wide here which should be beneficial, he gets in on the minimum and 3^rd up last prep he ran a very narrow and strong 3^rd at this T/D.

 

No knock on (8) Defiant Dancer. His win first up at Pakenham was very good and the 1200m will suit much better. The horse he beat, That Girl, basically crossed the line with Can’t Be Done last prep.

 

(6) Riding The Wave is flying and 1200m will suit, but this is a step up.

 

Tip: (10) Can’t Be Done $5.50 TAB

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Can’t Be Done

 

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(10) Titan Blinders deserves to be favourite coming off two strong all the way wins at Ararat and Ballarat, but he’s had the pattern onside both times, and Flemington in the rail true rarely produces a leader’s pattern.

 

I liked the first up run of (13) Strategic Phil first up at Pakenham behind The Astrologist when racing wide, but he loses Kah for Egan here and draws wide again. His 2^nd up record also leaves a bit to be desired. Watch for another big run because his 3^rd up record is outstanding.

 

Also in that Pakenham race was (4) Galaxy Raider who finished strongly. A fast run 1400m at Flemington is probably where he does his best racing, but he really struggles to win.

 

Titan Blinders looks the most likely winner, but I’d want around $3.80 to back him so watch the market.

 

Tip: (10) Titan Blinders $3.00 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: December 20, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

In an open race, I want to be with (1) Fine Dane first up off 10 weeks. He’s won 3 from 5 first up, his only failures a 2.2L 6^th to Jungle Edge, and last prep when 5^th, beaten 1.6L by Bella Vella in group 2 company. He’s generally better around a bend, but I can excuse his 2 unplaced efforts at the T/D. One came when 5^th up and at the end of the prep, and the other he was beaten 0.9L into 4^th as a 3yo.

 

Having been on (4) Overkill at both starts this prep, I’d be sick if he won here, but I don’t think 1000m down the straight is his preferred set up, and he’s still been racing ungenerously. As favourite I’ll have to jump off here, but he’s easily talented enough to win despite the set up.

 

If (13) Sword Of Mercy brings her 3^rd to Octane at this T/D she’ll go close. Lane takes the ride, and she draws the right part of the track.

 

(14) China Affair is a lightly raced gelding with talent, and the 1000m seems to be his sweet spot.

 

Tip: (1) Fine Dane $8.50 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Fine Dane