Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, December 18th

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

Happy to be with (1) Japery in the first. I’ve been a fan of this horse since his 2yo days and he’s clearly come back even better as a 3yo, bolting in first up at Wangaratta. At the end of last prep he ran a narrow 2^nd to That Girl, who has been racing well in Saturday metro grade since. He draws out here but will get clear air and the small field suits.

 

(2) Esta La Roca is the obvious danger coming off a 955m win first up. There does look to be some pressure for the lead and she’s a real speedy squib sort of horse.

 

I’m not on tonight, but (4) Zipping Boy acquitted himself very well in two runs last prep. 1000m looks short of his best and he’ll probably end up near last due to being out sped, but he’s got talent and will be hitting the line.

 

Tip: (1) Japery $3.60 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Japery

 

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I’m going to oppose the odds on favourite (5) Supreme Thunder here due to the map. He’s clearly the horse to beat coming off a 2^nd to Seb Song at this T/D, but he generally gets back in his races and barrier one could make things very tough. You’d be braver than I to be taking $1.65.

 

(4) Get In The Queue actually raced against Supreme Thunder on debut and was beaten nearly 5L, but improved sharply 2^nd up when ridden forward, only run down late. If he can get across from barrier 9, he could pinch a break.

 

(3) Nikau Spur was backed into $1.90 at his Australian debut and was solid behind Beltoro, who has come out and won by 2L at Flemington. The 1600m will suit and he draws for a beautiful run in barrier 3.

 

I’ve got Nikau Spur on top and could back him, but I’m more looking to get Supreme Thunder beat and if he stays under $1.80 on the exchange, I’ll probably just lay him.

 

Tip: (3) Nikau Spur $3.90 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Nikau Spur

 

 

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Unlike the previous race, this does look to set up very well for the favourite, (3) Tycoon Bec. She was dominant on debut at Kyneton over 1450m, leading all the way to win by 4.5L. She draws perfectly in barrier 4 here and looks well placed with Will Price’s 3kg claim. She should go straight to the front and win again.

 

(5) Redissent was also an impressive maiden winner at Werribee last start. He draws barrier one and will need some luck but wouldn’t shock.

 

(7) It’s True next best off a good Geelong maiden win which had more depth than the favourite’s race.

 

Tip: (3) Tycoon Bec $2.00 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Tycoon Bec

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

At the price, (3) Real Feeling looks close to the best of the night. She was solid on debut over a year ago behind Hanseatic, only beaten 3.4L before returning with a dominant win at Wodonga. She got the favours but couldn’t have been more impressive, racing away by 4.3L. The second horse there, Grindelwald, started $1.75 at his next start and won easily, so the form has stacked up and the market believes it to be strong. From barrier 2 I think Stackhouse can really own this race and go straight to the front, which will see her going very close.

 

(7) Malicorne is the obvious danger coming off a break. She was outclassed behind Odeum before a spell but did beat a handy horse in River Twain the start prior. She draws to get the sit on Real Feeling if good enough.

 

Tip: (3) Real Feeling $2.50 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Real Feeling

 

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tough edition of the 955m tonight. (10) Glenferrie Girl was good behind Paul’s Regret last start, who has come out and won at Flemington since. My main query with her is that all her form is at Warrnambool and she did get the lead there. That’s enough to turn me off her, especially as favourite.

 

(1) Reward With Return is flying but just keeps having no luck in his races. He was huge when working 3 wide on speed last start, but that was over 1200m. He’s generally better over 1100m-1200m, and although he was a good 2^nd behind the group class Vowmaster over 1000m here, the 955m is different again and he draws wide with a big weight, again.

 

(12) Almadrava was a good run first up behind Esta La Roca, as were a few of these here. Not much between them and it could come down to the best ride.

 

(4) Black Opal raced wide in that same race and stuck on well. He gets McNeil replacing Moloney here which is a big positive. Still at double figures with some bookmakers, he’d be the way I’m leaning.

 

Tip: (4) Black Opal $11.00 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Going with (9) Wellsford in the 3000m race because he brings very different form and a whole lot of upside. He was okay first up over 2060m before exploding 2^nd up over 2600m, winning by 6.5L. That was only his 5^th career start, so the potential to improve is a big factor compared to many of these.

 

(12) Epsom Days actually beat home Wellsford by around 1L last prep in a strong bm78 won by High Emocean. Epsom Days has been around the mark in these sorts of races and got too far back last start over 2500m.

 

That race was won by (3) Pissaro who is an obvious chance again, as is (5) Byalip who was close up in 2^nd.

 

Then we’ve got the Jericho form, which was won by (1) Count Zero. I’ve got no idea what to expect with those coming back from 4600m to 3000m, but the win was very good.

 

(2) Alienated couldn’t match it in the Jericho but loves the 3000m and is 2/3 at the T/D.

 

Tip: (9) Wellsford $4.45 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Wellsford

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(12) Sayumi looks the one to beat here. Her win first up at this T/D was outstanding, showing a great turn of foot to run over the top of Real Gun. That horse came out and bolted in at Caulfield on Wednesday. Sayumi draws to get a trail behind the speed and with an ounce of luck should be going close again.

 

(11) Fixated is flying having won his last two but I think he bumps into a pretty handy mare here. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 9 too.

 

(4) Bones covered ground here first up and should be improved. He’s only had the 4 starts and did show talent in his first prep.

 

Tip: (12) Sayumi $2.85 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Sayumi

Odds Last Updated: December 19, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Much more open race to finish. I’m with (1) Elderflower who comes here first up. She’s a mare I’ve always had time for and excels at the 1000m. She was solid first up last prep behind Young Liam and Bastyan who are no slouches when right, and she was unable to lead on that occasion. Her run at Caulfield last prep was excellent, finishing 3^rd to Lucifer’s Reward and Proper Rogue. She sat outside the speedsters Ms Catherine and Iconic Star there who tailed off to finish last and second last. A repeat of that performance would win this comfortably. If she can find the front and is ready to go, she looks hard to beat at $5.00, and we may see a bit better.

 

(6) Power Boom was a strong winner first up, with the runner up Brazen Brando winning since.

 

(7) Quesadilla bolted in first up and can measure up to this grade.

 

Tip: (1) Elderflower $5.00 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Elderflower