Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 1st

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:02am (AEDT)

Small field but a tricky one. (6) Latizia has jumped out very well at Cranbourne, showing early speed and coming away under no riding with a big gap back to 3rd.

(1) Kin was unlucky down the straight on debut and probably should’ve won. Small query dropping from 1100m to 1000m and this looks potentially a bit harder than last start.

(5) Lambda is another that has jumped out well here around a bend. He led there and could do so again here. 

Wouldn’t surprise to see a debutant win this but there isn’t much between them. Mounting yard and late betting probably the best guide.

Tip: (6) Latizia- $3.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:07am (AEDT)

Doesn’t get much easier but there are a couple of runners at odds that can run well. (1) Hearty Lass was good late last start in a much stronger race at listed level in Adelaide without much luck, held up behind runners before working home well to be beaten 1.6L by Outlaws Revenge. Last time she came to Melbourne she won in this grade at Caulfield with 60kg quite comfortably. 

(6) Mrs Sippy is racing well in this grade. She drew the outside barrier last start against the boys and got a mile back off a hot tempo but came home in the fastest last 600m of the race behind a very progressive horse in Gentleman Roy. She draws better in barrier 8 here.

Cannot understand how (12) Way To Go Paula is favourite given Mrs Sippy came from behind her and went straight past her last start. I don’t think she runs 1400m and has a tricky map.

(9) Sensationalisation can run well first up with a nice map.

Tip: Hearty Lass- $12.00/3.60 at Bet365

Also Backing: (6) Mrs Sippy- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Hearty Lass, 0.5 units WIN Mrs Sippy

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:37am (AEDT)

I think the race mentioned earlier won by Gentleman Roy is a good form reference, and one of the runs of the race outside the winner was (3) Dirty Deeds who sat 3 wide no cover in a race that the leaders went 7.4L above average early. She did a very good job to run 3rd and has run very well in higher classes than this. Don’t mind the wide draw at this T/D and she’s ready to peak here. 

(7) Vardani also draws wide but found winning form last start in an easier race, bolting in by 4L. Back to 1600m is potentially not ideal but he’s still got upside.

(12) Moral Force also has plenty of upside after a soft win in a bm64 last start. He’s only had one go at the mile which was a complete forgive when nearly falling behind Beau Rossa. 

(15) Unanimous beat Moral Force two starts ago then ran well last start without much luck. He’s another chance in an open race.

Tip: (3) Dirty Deeds- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dirty Deeds

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 12:07pm (AEDT)

Good race. Keen to see (3) Clemenceau again after two big wins this prep, the latest at The Valley when leading all the way. He didn’t begin all that well but hunted up to find the front, and increased his speed ~3L between the 800-400m which put the race away, over a second faster than standard time. The straight is the query, as is barrier 1, but if he handles it he’ll be hard to run down.

(2) Squid Game is 2/2 and won well down the straight last time out over 1200m. He goes up 2.5kg and drops to 1100m but his late splits were very good off a slow tempo. It’ll be interesting to see if he can match Clemenceau’s turn of foot back in trip.

The absolute blow out is (6) Rock Artist and although I doubt he can beat both the fancied runners, the place price is enticing. I thought he ran okay first up behind the smart Viviane when a drifter in betting with 61kg. This is harder but 2nd up last prep he was a tough winner over the fast Direct & Jigsaw. 

Backing Clemenceau who just needs to handle the straight to show his turn of foot, and Rock Artist to place isn’t a bad bet at $8.

Tip: (3) Clemenceau- $2.45 at TopSport

Value: (6) Rock Artist- $41.00/8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Clemenceau, 0.5 units PLC Rock Artist

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 12:37pm (AEDT)

(2) Bermadez was good dropping back to 1400m after 5 weeks off in a very slowly run race, just outsprinted by Lighthouse. Prior to that he won the Country Final over this T/D. He’s the one to beat but short enough at even money.

 (5) Somerset Maugham is ready to do something 3rd up. He was tight for room last start but worked through the line well, only 1.6L off High ’n’ Dry who he meets 2.5kg better here. Kah retains the ride and I think he can turn the tables with the added fitness.

 (4) High ’n’ Dry is flying and won well last start from the back. No knocks on him- he’s the fit, in form horse that will be hard to hold out again.

Also in that race was (10) Legionnaire who settled behind the leader and was forced back to the rails in a race dominated by the wider swoopers. There’s less pressure here and from the wide gate I think his best option would be to try and cross and take it up. 

Not a big betting race but I think Somerset Maugham is ready to win now, and Legionnaire can give some cheek. Staking so that if Legionnaire places we make a tiny profit. 

Tip: (5) Somerset Maugham- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Legionnaire- $23.00/4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Somerset Maugham, 0.25 units E/W Legionnaire

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 1:12pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race and it wouldn’t shock me to see (5) Takumi do something here. He’s got an awful strike rate, mainly due to his racing pattern, but is going quite well this prep. He was wide without cover in a very strong bm78 at Pakenham before an unlucky run last week in a bm84 at Caulfield, ending up last the fence and with nowhere to go at the 150m mark in a bunched finish. The wide draw suits the horse and the jockey and the pace looks fairly strong.

(11) Lost Impact bolted in an easier race last start at The Valley, making an early move to circle the field and winning by 6L. He draws inside here but might be able to go on with it now. 

 (4) Nordic Pride looks ready to win here 3rd up. He was good last start behind High ’n’ Dry over a mile after winning first up and the extra trip will suit. He’s got a very good 3rd up record and maps for an okay run midfield. 

Not much else would shock but I’ll be backing Takumi and Nordic Pride for small stakes.

Tip: (5) Takumi- $26.00/7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Nordic Pride- $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Takumi, 0.25 units WIN Nordic Pride

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 1:47pm (AEDT)

Hard to go against (2) Smokin’ Romans who I think is just better than these. He was far too good in the Pakenham Cup, chasing the leader who went out at a good tempo on a day that many came wide from off the speed. He’s up in the weights but is coming out of easily the best races and looks hard to beat.

(1) Good Idea had his back for all of the Pakenham Cup and was no match but held down 2nd well. He meets the favourite 3kg better for a 2L defeat and was solid at this T/D the start prior but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to turn the tables. 

(5) Skelm won the other main lead up race, a bm100 here over 2600m but it was an awful race where he got away with going 19L below average early. Personally I can’t have anything out of that race to beat the Pakenham Cup form. 

(4) Dragon Storm suddenly found some form in the Sandown Cup over 3200m last start but was belted up by Team Captain and Good Idea the start prior. 

Smokin’ Romans is very hard to beat and Good Idea can run 2nd again and the $2.50 a place looks fair. I hate the other lead up race and don’t think it’ll measure up.

Tip: (2) Smokin’ Romans- $2.30 at Bet365

Also Backing: Good Idea- $8.50/2.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Smokin’ Romans, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Good Idea

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 2:22pm (AEDT)

Have to butter up on (4) Blazejowski again. I was keen on him last start and he ran well, forced back to the inside and just beaten by Second Slip who had a perfect run. He gets Willo on who has won a group 3 on the horse at this T/D and he maps for a soft run. 

(9) Lighthouse is very progressive but has come up very short and I think she’ll drift. She sprinted well off a very slow tempo at this T/D last start but this is much harder and it’ll be a good test. Can definitely win again, I’d just need closer to $3.50 to be entertained.

(2) Yulong January can improve lengths 2nd up. Not sure how he went around odds on first up but it was a tough day to lead at Pakenham anyway and he faded. If he were 3rd up I’d be very keen, but his 2nd up record is still good, he loves this T/D and he’s jumped out perfectly in between runs. Should lead from barrier 1.

(5) Looks Like Elvis easily accounted for Yulong January at Pakenham in a strong win. He did start $7.50 to $1.95 and now they’re both around $10-11, but the win was good and he can go on with it. 

No knocks (8) Second Slip again- he maps for a soft run with Kah retaining the ride and will be hard to beat.

Tip: (4) Blazejowski- $17.00/4.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (2) Yulong January- $10.00/3.10 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Blazejowski, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Yulong January

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 3:02pm (AEDT)

I wish (14) Capriccio had drawn wider but I still think she’s a decent chance here after hitting the line very well first up in listed grade over 1000m, only beaten 1.7L by Mileva. Now she drops back to a bm78 and only goes up to 56.5kg. She’s a good straight tracker and in the right race, she’ll just need a bit of luck from barrier 4.

(10) Pioneer River is another good straight tracker- he’s almost unbackable anywhere else. He won at this T/D last start in an almost identical set up when drawn very wide and allowed to sit close to the speed. This is harder but he stays on the same weight and will be given every chance. 

(20) Vespertine was excellent first up over 1100m down the straight, flying home from near last to run 2nd. With that run under her belt she’ll be hard to hold out, but does need 3 scratchings to make the field and she might miss out. 

(5) Taken Off is an interesting runner, having his first run for a new stable. He wasn’t too far off Tequila Time before a freshen with the Stokes camp, who started $4 and ran well in the race Capriccio comes out of. He’s got bar plates and a synthetic hoof filler on which suggests he might’ve had some issues after his last run, but he’s a big price for exotics/quaddies. 

Tip: (14) Capriccio- $8.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Capriccio