Connect with us

Racing Tips

Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 1st

New Year’s Day at Flemington and Trent Crebbin’s best bet comes up in the Bagot Handicap

flemington racing tips

New Year’s Day racing at Flemington on Saturday, headlined by the Chester Manifold and Bagot Handicap.

Trent Crebbin is hoping to kick off 2022 in style, with his best bet in Race 7.

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 6 metres.

Best Bet- Race 7 (2) Smokin’ Romans

Best Value- Race 8 (4) Blazejowski & (2) Yulong January

TAB Sky Racing

206070

Race 1

New Year Sprint (1000m)
12:35pm (AEDT)

Race 1

New Year Sprint (1000m)
12:35pm (AEDT)

1. Kin (3) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: James Cummings
2.72.72.6
2. Va Via (2) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: James Cummings
887.8
3. Hoops (4) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: D T O'brien
151514.6
4. Incorporation (1) J: Harry Coffey (56kg) T: S Fliedner
121211.6
5. Lambda (6) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
4.24.24.1
6. Latizia (5) J: John Allen (56kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
3.33.33.2

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:02am (AEDT)

Small field but a tricky one. (6) Latizia has jumped out very well at Cranbourne, showing early speed and coming away under no riding with a big gap back to 3rd.

(1) Kin was unlucky down the straight on debut and probably should’ve won. Small query dropping from 1100m to 1000m and this looks potentially a bit harder than last start.

(5) Lambda is another that has jumped out well here around a bend. He led there and could do so again here. 

Wouldn’t surprise to see a debutant win this but there isn’t much between them. Mounting yard and late betting probably the best guide.

Tip: (6) Latizia- $3.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

206070

Race 2

Fields Of Omagh Plate (Bm70) (1400m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Fields Of Omagh Plate (Bm70) (1400m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

1. Hearty Lass (3) J: Ms Alana Kelly (62kg) T: John Hyam
131313.2
2. Takissacod (4) J: Nick Heywood (62kg) T: Ms D Scott
212623.5
3. Stay Gold (1) J: Ms Jamie Kah (61.5kg) T: D T O'brien
554.8
4. Sweet Karolina (15) J: Damien Oliver (61kg) T: L & T Corstens
5.55.55.3
5. Zimowy (10) J: Teodore Nugent (61kg) T: K & K Keys
6. Mrs Sippy (8) J: Josh Richards (60.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
5.566.1
7. Bella Tiara (12) J: Mark Zahra (60kg) T: M J Williams
8. Lady D'oro (5) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
99.59.6
9. Sensationalisation (6) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
10119.4
10. Minola (13) J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
11. Atomic Selfie (7) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: Ben Brisbourne
161312.8
12. Way To Go Paula (2) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (58.5kg) T: P Stokes
4.64.84.95
13. Demando (14) J: Blaike Mcdougall (58kg) T: Andrew Noblet
14. Miss Verbier (11) J: Luke Currie (56.5kg) T: D R Brideoake
15. Pay The Deeler (9) J: Jye Mcneil (55.5kg) T: P A Sweeney

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:07am (AEDT)

Doesn’t get much easier but there are a couple of runners at odds that can run well. (1) Hearty Lass was good late last start in a much stronger race at listed level in Adelaide without much luck, held up behind runners before working home well to be beaten 1.6L by Outlaws Revenge. Last time she came to Melbourne she won in this grade at Caulfield with 60kg quite comfortably. 

(6) Mrs Sippy is racing well in this grade. She drew the outside barrier last start against the boys and got a mile back off a hot tempo but came home in the fastest last 600m of the race behind a very progressive horse in Gentleman Roy. She draws better in barrier 8 here.

Cannot understand how (12) Way To Go Paula is favourite given Mrs Sippy came from behind her and went straight past her last start. I don’t think she runs 1400m and has a tricky map.

(9) Sensationalisation can run well first up with a nice map.

Tip: Hearty Lass- $12.00/3.60 at Bet365

Also Backing: (6) Mrs Sippy- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Hearty Lass, 0.5 units WIN Mrs Sippy

206070

Race 3

Victorian Jockeys Assoc-Bm70 (1600m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Victorian Jockeys Assoc-Bm70 (1600m)
1:45pm (AEDT)

1. Seeingisbelieving (14) J: Luke Currie (62.5kg) T: Paul & Tracey Templeton
818185
2. Dogmatic (2) J: Thomas Stockdale (62kg) T: Richard Laming
3. Dirty Deeds (19) J: Ms Alana Kelly (61.5kg) T: Simon Zahra
77.56.3
4. New Choice (12) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (61kg) T: C Vidotto & C Beasy
5. Comanche Brave (1) J: Josh Richards (60.5kg) T: Julius Sandhu
131413
6. New King (5) J: Matthew Cartwright (60.5kg) T: Matthew Dale
262627.5
7. Vardani (17) J: Declan Bates (60kg) T: Archie Alexander
111110.8
8. Hasseltoff (11) J: Ms Jamie Kah (59.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
99.59.3
9. Tradewind (15) J: Jye Mcneil (59.5kg) T: Ryan Balfour
10. Jesta Dreama (18) J: Craig Robertson (59kg) T: Ms W Kelly
11. Dimaggio (16) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: K L Corstens
344134
12. Moral Force (8) J: Craig Williams (58.5kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
4.24.24.25
13. Reliable Dude (13) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
9.59.59.5
14. I Am News (9) J: Jake Noonan (58kg) T: Brent Stanley
15. Unanimous (3) J: John Allen (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
555
16. Maid Of Iron (10) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
191919.2
17. Lake's Folly (4) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Michael Hickmott
18. Orienzel (20) J: Jarrod Fry (58kg) T: Nathan Hobson
10110197
19. Gracias Amigo (6) J: Logan Mcneil (57.5kg) T: G M Begg
191920
20. Bajraktari (7) J: Ms Christine Puls (57.5kg) T: Jessie Constantine
415145

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 11:37am (AEDT)

I think the race mentioned earlier won by Gentleman Roy is a good form reference, and one of the runs of the race outside the winner was (3) Dirty Deeds who sat 3 wide no cover in a race that the leaders went 7.4L above average early. She did a very good job to run 3rd and has run very well in higher classes than this. Don’t mind the wide draw at this T/D and she’s ready to peak here. 

(7) Vardani also draws wide but found winning form last start in an easier race, bolting in by 4L. Back to 1600m is potentially not ideal but he’s still got upside.

(12) Moral Force also has plenty of upside after a soft win in a bm64 last start. He’s only had one go at the mile which was a complete forgive when nearly falling behind Beau Rossa. 

(15) Unanimous beat Moral Force two starts ago then ran well last start without much luck. He’s another chance in an open race.

Tip: (3) Dirty Deeds- $9.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Dirty Deeds

206070

Race 4

Aust. Trainers Assoc. (Bm70) (1100m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Aust. Trainers Assoc. (Bm70) (1100m)
2:20pm (AEDT)

1. Sharp Response (3) J: Ethan Brown (60kg) T: Julius Sandhu
212121.5
2. Squid Game (2) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: Patrick Payne
3.93.94.05
3. Clemenceau (1) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.32.32.2
4. Along The River (10) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: M J Ellerton
777
5. Titans (9) J: Damien Thornton (58.5kg) T: A & S Freedman
192118.4
6. Rock Artist (5) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: K & K Keys
262622.5
7. Vermentino (4) J: John Allen (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8. Rusheen (6) J: Jake Noonan (56kg) T: A W Noonan
314137
9. Spirit Of Pepin (7) J: Ms Alana Kelly (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
617155
10. Star Spirit (11) J: Josh Richards (56kg) T: Archie Alexander
212623.5
11. Butter Blonde (8) J: Ms Jamie Kah (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
9.51010

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 12:07pm (AEDT)

Good race. Keen to see (3) Clemenceau again after two big wins this prep, the latest at The Valley when leading all the way. He didn’t begin all that well but hunted up to find the front, and increased his speed ~3L between the 800-400m which put the race away, over a second faster than standard time. The straight is the query, as is barrier 1, but if he handles it he’ll be hard to run down.

(2) Squid Game is 2/2 and won well down the straight last time out over 1200m. He goes up 2.5kg and drops to 1100m but his late splits were very good off a slow tempo. It’ll be interesting to see if he can match Clemenceau’s turn of foot back in trip.

The absolute blow out is (6) Rock Artist and although I doubt he can beat both the fancied runners, the place price is enticing. I thought he ran okay first up behind the smart Viviane when a drifter in betting with 61kg. This is harder but 2nd up last prep he was a tough winner over the fast Direct & Jigsaw. 

Backing Clemenceau who just needs to handle the straight to show his turn of foot, and Rock Artist to place isn’t a bad bet at $8.

Tip: (3) Clemenceau- $2.45 at TopSport

Value: (6) Rock Artist- $41.00/8.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Clemenceau, 0.5 units PLC Rock Artist

206070

Race 5

Henry Byron Moore (Bm84) (1600m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Henry Byron Moore (Bm84) (1600m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

1. Desert Icon (1) J: Josh Richards (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
212624
2. Bermadez (8) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: M D Moroney
1.651.651.62
3. Playoffs (3) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4. High 'N' Dry (5) J: Matthew Cartwright (57kg) T: M J Ellerton
5.566.1
5. Somerset Maugham (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57kg) T: D T O'brien
8.598.8
6. Vegas Knight (9) J: Teodore Nugent (57kg) T: C Little & M Lindsay
515147
7. Force Of Will (7) J: Ms Alana Kelly (56.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8. Designer Chef (6) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Mark C Webb
181818.4
9. Flandersrain (4) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani
131314.2
10. Legionnaire (10) J: Jarrod Fry (56kg) T: J F Moloney
181817.6

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 12:37pm (AEDT)

(2) Bermadez was good dropping back to 1400m after 5 weeks off in a very slowly run race, just outsprinted by Lighthouse. Prior to that he won the Country Final over this T/D. He’s the one to beat but short enough at even money.

 (5) Somerset Maugham is ready to do something 3rd up. He was tight for room last start but worked through the line well, only 1.6L off High ’n’ Dry who he meets 2.5kg better here. Kah retains the ride and I think he can turn the tables with the added fitness.

 (4) High ’n’ Dry is flying and won well last start from the back. No knocks on him- he’s the fit, in form horse that will be hard to hold out again.

Also in that race was (10) Legionnaire who settled behind the leader and was forced back to the rails in a race dominated by the wider swoopers. There’s less pressure here and from the wide gate I think his best option would be to try and cross and take it up. 

Not a big betting race but I think Somerset Maugham is ready to win now, and Legionnaire can give some cheek. Staking so that if Legionnaire places we make a tiny profit. 

Tip: (5) Somerset Maugham- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Legionnaire- $23.00/4.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Somerset Maugham, 0.25 units E/W Legionnaire

206070

Race 6

George Watson (Bm70) (2000m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

Race 6

George Watson (Bm70) (2000m)
3:40pm (AEDT)

1. Irish Butterfly (3) J: Josh Richards (61.5kg) T: Henry Dwyer
66.56.5
2. Brasada (5) J: Damien Oliver (61kg) T: L & T Corstens
111310.6
3. Convict Sam (6) J: Ms Alana Kelly (61kg) T: Archie Alexander
6.566.1
4. Nordic Pride (9) J: Matthew Cartwright (61kg) T: Ben Brisbourne
777.1
5. Takumi (13) J: John Allen (60.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell
6. Curly Burgin (8) J: Lewis German (59kg) T: D J Bourne
192120
7. Mr Pickwick (15) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (59kg) T: Patrick Payne
5.56.55.5
8. Pilote (10) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: K L Corstens
262623
9. Resurge (16) J: Luke Currie (59kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
10. War Critic (17) J: Unknown (59kg) T: Simon Zahra
414132
11. Lost Impact (1) J: Thomas Stockdale (58.5kg) T: L Smith
666.1
12. Running Cloud (7) J: Lachlan Neindorf (58.5kg) T: Nathan Dunn
313428
13. La Spezia (2) J: Craig Williams (57.5kg) T: Jamie Edwards
14. Unique Artist (4) J: Daniel Moor (57.5kg) T: P Stokes
151716
15. Pres De Toi (12) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: P A Chow
121211.2
16. Shezadandi (14) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: G Eurell
17. Hard Squeeze (11) J: Unknown (54kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 1:12pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race and it wouldn’t shock me to see (5) Takumi do something here. He’s got an awful strike rate, mainly due to his racing pattern, but is going quite well this prep. He was wide without cover in a very strong bm78 at Pakenham before an unlucky run last week in a bm84 at Caulfield, ending up last the fence and with nowhere to go at the 150m mark in a bunched finish. The wide draw suits the horse and the jockey and the pace looks fairly strong.

(11) Lost Impact bolted in an easier race last start at The Valley, making an early move to circle the field and winning by 6L. He draws inside here but might be able to go on with it now. 

 (4) Nordic Pride looks ready to win here 3rd up. He was good last start behind High ’n’ Dry over a mile after winning first up and the extra trip will suit. He’s got a very good 3rd up record and maps for an okay run midfield. 

Not much else would shock but I’ll be backing Takumi and Nordic Pride for small stakes.

Tip: (5) Takumi- $26.00/7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Nordic Pride- $9.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Takumi, 0.25 units WIN Nordic Pride

206070

Race 7

Bagot Hcp (2800m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Bagot Hcp (2800m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Good Idea (6) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: P Stokes
7.587.3
2. Smokin' Romans (1) J: Ms Jamie Kah (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.52.72.5
3. Blenheim Palace (7) J: Craig Robertson (56.5kg) T: Simon Ryan
676159
4. Dragon Storm (3) J: Blaike Mcdougall (56.5kg) T: M D Moroney
262626.5
5. Skelm (9) J: Michael Poy (56kg) T: T D Kelly
5.55.55.1
6. High Emocean (2) J: Jye Mcneil (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4.24.24.2
7. Long Arm (5) J: Teodore Nugent (55kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
212620.5
8. Fanciful Toff (11) J: Craig Williams (54kg) T: Matthew Cumani
515147
9. Tigertiger (10) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: R J Blacker
101112.2
10. Guns Ablazing (4) J: Declan Bates (54kg) T: Amy & Ash Yargi
11. Lady In The Sky (8) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: M D Moroney
91101101

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 1:47pm (AEDT)

Hard to go against (2) Smokin’ Romans who I think is just better than these. He was far too good in the Pakenham Cup, chasing the leader who went out at a good tempo on a day that many came wide from off the speed. He’s up in the weights but is coming out of easily the best races and looks hard to beat.

(1) Good Idea had his back for all of the Pakenham Cup and was no match but held down 2nd well. He meets the favourite 3kg better for a 2L defeat and was solid at this T/D the start prior but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to turn the tables. 

(5) Skelm won the other main lead up race, a bm100 here over 2600m but it was an awful race where he got away with going 19L below average early. Personally I can’t have anything out of that race to beat the Pakenham Cup form. 

(4) Dragon Storm suddenly found some form in the Sandown Cup over 3200m last start but was belted up by Team Captain and Good Idea the start prior. 

Smokin’ Romans is very hard to beat and Good Idea can run 2nd again and the $2.50 a place looks fair. I hate the other lead up race and don’t think it’ll measure up.

Tip: (2) Smokin’ Romans- $2.30 at Bet365

Also Backing: Good Idea- $8.50/2.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Smokin’ Romans, 0.25/1.25 units E/W Good Idea

206070

Race 8

Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Age Of Chivalry (4) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: Simon Zahra
161714.4
2. Yulong January (1) J: Mark Zahra (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
131514.2
3. Crosshaven (7) J: John Allen (59kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
131311.8
4. Blazejowski (3) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: G Eurell
101010
5. Looks Like Elvis (11) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: J M Austin
999.6
6. Odeon (9) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Simon Zahra
818187
7. Pancho (6) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: C J Waller
191917
8. Second Slip (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (56kg) T: Will Clarken
6.576.5
9. Lighthouse (8) J: Jye Mcneil (54kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
2.72.72.6
10. Farooq (10) J: Daniel Moor (54kg) T: Ms S Murphy
131214.2
11. Neighbourhood (12) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: E Jusufovic
12. Not To Be Mist (5) J: Damien Thornton (54kg) T: Nick Ryan
131312.4

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 2:22pm (AEDT)

Have to butter up on (4) Blazejowski again. I was keen on him last start and he ran well, forced back to the inside and just beaten by Second Slip who had a perfect run. He gets Willo on who has won a group 3 on the horse at this T/D and he maps for a soft run. 

(9) Lighthouse is very progressive but has come up very short and I think she’ll drift. She sprinted well off a very slow tempo at this T/D last start but this is much harder and it’ll be a good test. Can definitely win again, I’d just need closer to $3.50 to be entertained.

(2) Yulong January can improve lengths 2nd up. Not sure how he went around odds on first up but it was a tough day to lead at Pakenham anyway and he faded. If he were 3rd up I’d be very keen, but his 2nd up record is still good, he loves this T/D and he’s jumped out perfectly in between runs. Should lead from barrier 1.

(5) Looks Like Elvis easily accounted for Yulong January at Pakenham in a strong win. He did start $7.50 to $1.95 and now they’re both around $10-11, but the win was good and he can go on with it. 

No knocks (8) Second Slip again- he maps for a soft run with Kah retaining the ride and will be hard to beat.

Tip: (4) Blazejowski- $17.00/4.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (2) Yulong January- $10.00/3.10 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Blazejowski, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Yulong January

206070

Race 9

Santa Ana Lane (Bm78) (1200m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Santa Ana Lane (Bm78) (1200m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Broadwayandfourth (6) J: John Allen (61kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
88.58.6
2. Fundraiser (7) J: Craig Williams (61kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
111212.2
3. Easy Beast (9) J: Blaike Mcdougall (60kg) T: Richard Laming
12612699
4. Rock Prophet (12) J: Lewis German (60kg) T: R J Besanko
171919.2
5. Taken Off (19) J: Mark Zahra (60kg) T: Aaron Peterson
6. Irish Songs (13) J: Damien Thornton (59.5kg) T: Kurt Goldman
7. River Twain (17) J: Luke Currie (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
212119
8. Crestani (14) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: P G Carey
6.56.56.9
9. Music Addition (3) J: Jason Maskiell (59kg) T: Peter Gelagotis
718167
10. Pioneer River (20) J: Josh Richards (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
443.8
11. Free To Move (15) J: Ms Alana Kelly (58.5kg) T: K & K Keys
515145
12. Housay (1) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: Shea Eden
141314.6
13. Japery (16) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (57kg) T: Patrick Payne
14. Capriccio (4) J: Harry Coffey (56.5kg) T: Daniel Bowman
6.577.1
15. Witchfulthinking (2) J: Patrick Moloney (56.5kg) T: Andrew Noblet
16. Cloudy (5) J: Daniel Moor (54.5kg) T: James Cummings
17. Divine Diosa (8) J: Damian Lane (55kg) T: Simon Zahra
18. Sessions Road (11) J: Jye Mcneil (56.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
181815.2
19. Alburq (18) J: Matthew Cartwright (56kg) T: M D Moroney
886.6
20. Vespertine (10) J: Michael Dee (54kg) T: G M Begg

Odds Last Updated: January 1, 2022, 3:02pm (AEDT)

I wish (14) Capriccio had drawn wider but I still think she’s a decent chance here after hitting the line very well first up in listed grade over 1000m, only beaten 1.7L by Mileva. Now she drops back to a bm78 and only goes up to 56.5kg. She’s a good straight tracker and in the right race, she’ll just need a bit of luck from barrier 4.

(10) Pioneer River is another good straight tracker- he’s almost unbackable anywhere else. He won at this T/D last start in an almost identical set up when drawn very wide and allowed to sit close to the speed. This is harder but he stays on the same weight and will be given every chance. 

(20) Vespertine was excellent first up over 1100m down the straight, flying home from near last to run 2nd. With that run under her belt she’ll be hard to hold out, but does need 3 scratchings to make the field and she might miss out. 

(5) Taken Off is an interesting runner, having his first run for a new stable. He wasn’t too far off Tequila Time before a freshen with the Stokes camp, who started $4 and ran well in the race Capriccio comes out of. He’s got bar plates and a synthetic hoof filler on which suggests he might’ve had some issues after his last run, but he’s a big price for exotics/quaddies. 

Tip: (14) Capriccio- $8.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Capriccio

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

Advertisement Moneyball
Advertisement WinnersBet
Advertisement BetDeluxe

More in Racing Tips