Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 5th

Race 1 Harry Angel 1St Yearlings Mdn (1200m) 2:20pm (AEDT)
1. Allusionist (6) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: R & M Freedman		10		10	9.9
2. Celtic Harp (4) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: C J Waller		7		8	6.6
3. Cyber Attack (1) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: J A O'shea		8.5		8.5	8.4
4. Destiny's Bounty (3) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: J A O'shea		5.5		5	5
5. Fear Index (10) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Ms G Markwell		21		21	21.5
6. Onehelvason (8) J: Ms Alysha Collett (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
7. Ovoid (2) J: Jean Van Overmeire (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou		41		41	43
8. Solvere (9) J: Glyn Schofield (56kg) T: A J Cummings
9. Stick To Your Guns (11) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Mark Newnham		2		1.95	1.96
10. Taborca (5) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: C J Waller		26		31	27
11. The Replicant (7) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: Joseph Pride		61		71	47

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 2:22pm (AEDT)

Really liked the lead in trials of (9) Stick To Your Guns here who looks to have come back in very good order following a solid debut prep. He went so very close to knocking off Minsk Moment in his last start and that horse has gone on to win a couple of handy races and shown plenty. This will be his first start on a dry track and that should suit him while the 1.5kg claim is a bonus.

(8) Solvere ran well above the market expectation on debut and went very close to knocking off a couple decent horses. Should improve off the back of that.

(4) Destiny’s Bounty another who will take improvement from the debut run and can win here.

Tip: (9) Stick To Your Guns - $2.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Stick To Your Guns

Race 2 Keeneland Mdn Plate (1200m) 2:55pm (AEDT)
1. Aquarius (11) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: M J Dunn		19		21	19.4
2. Baden Road (5) J: Keagan Latham (56kg) T: J G Sargent		41		51	51
3. Hayami (9) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Brad Widdup		8		7	7.3
4. Mad Darcey (12) J: Regan Bayliss (56kg) T: M J Dunn		21		21	23.5
5. Missouri Belle (3) J: Tyler Schiller (56kg) T: A M Boyle		126		101	111
6. Nymph (10) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: G R Nickson		101		101	111
7. Po Kare Kare (1) J: Ms Alysha Collett (56kg) T: Bryce Heys		7		7	7.6
8. Sizzle Chic (6) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: G Portelli		18		18	17.8
9. Super Vogue (13) J: Jay Ford (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
10. Taizai (4) J: Reece Jones (56kg) T: John Thompson		13		13	12.2
11. Trifaccia (2) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: James Cummings		1.75		1.65	1.74
12. Vintage (7) J: Tommy Berry (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott		11		12	10
13. Williams Bay (14) J: Jean Van Overmeire (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
14. You Like (8) J: Chad Schofield (56kg) T: C J Waller

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 2:57pm (AEDT)

Think (9) Super Vogue can run a race here on debut off the back of a couple of good trials. The favourite looks well unders for mine and on the price factor alone I think this guy can run a bold race and knock that horse off. Shown a good turn of foot at the trials and should be able to run over the top of them here.

(11) Trifaccia no doubt should have won a race by now but continues to be a tease for punters. Has some form around elite horses but at the tomato sauce odds I have to look around her.

(7) Po Kare Kare has looked handy at the trials and I think she can run a hole here.

Tip: (9) Super Vogue - $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Super Vogue

Race 3 Ranvet (Bm72) (2200m) 3:30pm (AEDT)
1. Kaapfever (5) J: Tyler Schiller (60kg) T: Joseph Pride		4.6		4.6	4.65
2. Kirkeby (6) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: C J Waller		8		8.5	8.4
3. Made By Khan (7) J: Dylan Gibbons (59kg) T: Adam Duggan		11		11	11
4. Don Arcangelo (12) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: J A O'shea		9.5		10	9.8
5. Grand Rock (1) J: Glyn Schofield (57.5kg) T: C J Waller		14		15	12.2
6. Karlstad (10) J: Rory Hutchings (57.5kg) T: C J Waller
7. Legend Has It (4) J: Chris Williams (56.5kg) T: L J Bridge		6		5.5	6
8. Breton (2) J: Jason Collett (55.5kg) T: C J Waller		17		15	16.2
9. Viren (11) J: Tom Sherry (55.5kg) T: David Payne		9		8.5	9.1
10. Power Of Attorney (8) J: Jay Ford (54.5kg) T: Peter Robl		21		21	23.5
11. Atonement (13) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: Matthew Smith		9.5		11	10.4
12. On Bail (9) J: Regan Bayliss (54kg) T: P & P Snowden		31		26	32
13. Quiet Michael (3) J: Reece Jones (54kg) T: C J Waller		11		11	10
14. Barellan Bandit (14) J: Grant Buckley (54kg) T: John W Ramsey

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 3:32pm (AEDT)

(2) Kirkeby is clearly a better horse with his toe in the ground and looking at the forecast, should get conditions to suit here today. Admit these midweek staying races can be very hard to predict but this horse is on the up recently and looks suited up to 2200m here.

(3) Made By Khan looks a very good each way chance here getting onto a wet track where he does his best work. Won two straight on heavy tracks before tackling a similar race to this last start. Good 3kg claim will suit and he will take some running down.

(1) Kaapfever is down in grade for this and should get conditions to suit. Expect he will get his chance here and has a good record out at this trip.

(4) Don Arcangelo next best.

Tip: (2) Kirkeby - $6.50 at TopSport

Value: (3) Made By Khan - $11 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Kirkeby, 0.5u WIN Made By Khan

Race 4 The Agency Real Estate (Bm64) (1600m) 4:05pm (AEDT)
1. Sweet Ruby (6) J: Dylan Gibbons (61kg) T: Ms K Waugh		7.5		7	8.1
2. Remus (12) J: Tyler Schiller (60kg) T: J M Austin
3. Sword Point (2) J: James Mcdonald (60kg) T: C J Waller		1.75		1.8	1.8
4. Supremo (5) J: Chris Williams (59.5kg) T: John Thompson		12		12	11.4
5. Crosscube (15) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott		12		12	11.8
6. Rock The Bells (14) J: Keagan Latham (59kg) T: R & M Freedman
7. Just Tozza (4) J: Regan Bayliss (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle		11		12	12.2
8. Ribeauville (10) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: J C Coyle
9. Kiterro (3) J: Chad Schofield (58kg) T: C J Waller		19		19	16
10. Little River (11) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57.5kg) T: Joseph Pride		26		31	23
11. Lovetheinvasion (9) J: Christian Reith (57kg) T: J C Deamer		20		21	19.2
12. Inordinate Opinion (1) J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
13. Tympanist (13) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: David Payne
14. Ausbred Flirt (8) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55kg) T: Brad Widdup		12		13	11.4
15. Dash Dash Dash (7) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: I B Finn		151		151	131

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 4:07pm (AEDT)

(3) Sword Point looked all the parts of a very good racehorse when winning his maiden last start at Canterbury. Was pretty solid in the market there and he put them away in a few strides, putting 3L on Flying Witness who looks handy. McDonald sticks for the ride and from barrier 2, should give this horse every opportunity to take the next step through the grades now. Probably just needs to handle the wet track.

(4) Supremo looks ready to do something now 3rd up from a spell. Think he might be suited getting out to the mile for the first time and usually runs well with a bit of rain around.

(9) Kitero isn’t the worst here at $20+. Much better horse in wet conditions and Waller going 1300-1600 here could be something to take note of.

Tip: (3) Sword Point - $2.90 at Bet365

Value: (9) Kitero - $23/$5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5u WIN Sword Point, 0.25u EW Kitero

Race 5 Xxxx (Bm72) (1200m) 4:40pm (AEDT)
1. Never Second (11) J: Dylan Gibbons (62.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
2. Grace Bay (8) J: Ms Jenny Duggan (60kg) T: Claire Lever		12		13	13.2
3. Miss Redoble (1) J: Ms Madi Derrick (59.5kg) T: T J Bartley		34		34	35
4. Tiny (13) J: Campbell Rawiller (58.5kg) T: James Cummings		4.5		5	4.8
5. Embeller (3) J: Chris Williams (58kg) T: John Thompson		10		9	10.2
6. Quatenus (10) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: James Cummings		3.2		3.4	3.1
7. Tejori (12) J: Tyler Schiller (57.5kg) T: N J Olive
8. Passistas (6) J: Jackson Searle (56kg) T: Matthew Smith		34		26	32
9. Twitch (5) J: Tom Sherry (56kg) T: Mark Newnham		2.4		2.4	2.4
10. Atlantic Seas (2) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
11. Lovemetender (9) J: (55kg) T: John Ramsey
12. Bacio Del Mist (7) J: Ms Casey Waddell (54kg) T: Lee & Cherie Curtis		151		101	161
13. Twice As Special (4) J: (57kg) T: Jason Coyle

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 4:42pm (AEDT)

(6) Quatenus has been costly to us this prep but giving her one more chance now third up and dropping in the weights. Bumped into an in-form horse last start who’s since run well again and should be suited with the slight rise to 1200m.

(1) Never Second was dominant in weaker company last start after being hammered in betting pre-race. Is getting up in the weights now but is certainly progressive and has been flying since joining the new stable.

(9) Twitch has had four starts and is yet to miss the placings. Still has stacks of upside and maps very well from gate 5.

Tip: (6) Quatenus - $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Quatenus

Race 6 Vinery (Bm72) (1200m) 5:15pm (AEDT)
1. Broken Arrows (6) J: Reece Jones (61.5kg) T: M J Dunn		9		9	9.6
2. Cafe Royal (16) J: Dylan Gibbons (61kg) T: Nathan Doyle		6		5.5	6
3. Jailbreak (7) J: Anthony Cavallo (60kg) T: Ms G Williams		26		31	27
4. Toto (3) J: Tom Sherry (59kg) T: T S Howlett		15		16	16.2
5. Astero (13) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
6. Resilient Star (10) J: Chad Schofield (58.5kg) T: R & M Freedman		15		17	13.6
7. In Lighten Me (15) J: Tyler Schiller (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
8. Knickpoint (4) J: Sam Clipperton (57.5kg) T: Richard Litt		21		21	20.5
9. Miss Redoble (9) J: Kathy O'Hara (57.5kg) T: Tracey Bartley
10. Free State (11) J: Ms Alysha Collett (57kg) T: Brad Widdup		16		17	13.6
11. Oriental Runner (12) J: (56.5kg) T: Tony Sergi
12. Concocted (2) J: James Mcdonald (55.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott		2.5		2.5	2.6
13. Lennon (14) J: Chris Williams (55.5kg) T: L J Bridge		41		41	34
14. El Cohete (1) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: Joseph Pride		9.5		9.5	8.5
15. Twice As Special (8) J: Ms Rachel King (55kg) T: J C Coyle		9.5		10	9.9
16. Altimeter (5) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: Richard Litt		71		91	85

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 5:17pm (AEDT)

(12) Concocted looks well placed here to win again first up. Tackled a couple of decent races last prep as a 2yo and started single figures in the Up and Coming behind Tiger Of Malay and Coastwatch. Has had three lead in trials for this today and looks ready to fire fresh. Expect them to go straight to the lead from the low draw and McDonald will ride the horse for the first time. Looks progressive and has a bit more upside than many of these.

(15) Twice As Special looks the main threat to me and is knocking on the door for another win. Has no issues with wet tracks and she will be charging from the back late.

(1) Broken Arrows is the class horse in this race and generally runs very well fresh. Gets a good weight relief with Reece Jones to ride and won a trial here over this trip leading into this.

Tip: (12) Concocted - $2.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5u WIN Concocted

Race 7 Tab (Bm72) (1400m) 5:50pm (AEDT)
1. Bergen (7) J: Jason Collett (61kg) T: G W Moore
2. Mensa Missile (10) J: Jean Van Overmeire (61kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott		8		8	7.8
3. Savoury (16) J: Reece Jones (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker		15		17	14.6
4. Mccormack (14) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (59kg) T: T J Bartley
5. Reggiewood (3) J: Jay Ford (59kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou		11		11	12
6. Deadly Impact (13) J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg) T: M J Dunn		41		41	38
7. Vienna Rain (6) J: Koby Jennings (58.5kg) T: Nathan Doyle		26		34	28.5
8. Fenech (18) J: Tyler Schiller (58kg) T: Ms K Waugh
9. Titanium Power (19) J: Rory Hutchings (58kg) T: Joseph Pride		9.5		9.5	8.3
10. Briars Kingdom (4) J: Tommy Berry (57.5kg) T: P & P Snowden		14		14	11.6
11. Kennedy Choice (15) J: Tom Sherry (57.5kg) T: David Payne		16		17	17
12. Galaxy Belle (1) J: Dylan Gibbons (57kg) T: K A Lees		10		12	10.6
13. Sur La Mer (5) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller		2.3		2.2	2.35
14. Kosciusko (12) J: Ms Casey Waddell (56.5kg) T: J & G Lee		61		61	65
15. Zoumist (11) J: Chad Schofield (56.5kg) T: R & M Freedman		26		34	29.5
16. The Crimson Idol (8) J: Ms Ellen Hennessy (56kg) T: J N Englebrecht		41		51	53
17. Rebel Bro (17) J: Ms Jenny Duggan (55kg) T: Matthew Smith
18. Spin Bowles (2) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: M & D Kearney
19. Nicochet (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: J C Coyle		31		34	35

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 5:52pm (AEDT)

(13) Sur La Mer went very close to winning a better race than this last start when being beaten by Toomuchtobear. Draws well here and McDonald takes over while I think she gets in well with just 57kg. Only needs a repeat of last start performance to be winning this.

(10) Briars Kingdom had no luck here last start from a wide draw and never got into the race. Draws much better today and on his best form he can bounce back here.

(2) Mensa Missile looks ready to peak third up following two good runs this prep. Has been building nicely and out to 1400m now will suit.

(12) Galaxy Belle finished last prep with three straight wins and has trialled well enough to think she can be a factor here. Might be a bit short of her best but can’t rule out if she brings the form from last prep.

Tip: (13) Sur La Mer - $3.40 at Bet365

Also Backing: (10) Briars Kingdom - $12 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Sur La Mer, 0.5u WIN Briars Kingdom