Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, January 5th

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 3:42pm (AEDT)

(8) Duchy Of Savoy clearly looks the one to beat. She’s only had one run in maiden grade which was a strong 2nd to Forzanini who has become a solid bm70 horse. Since then she’s taken on stronger grades and run very well, and the recent trial win was good on speed. Should be going very close and being by Snitzel I’m prepared to think a soft track will be fine although he’s come into odds-on now which is short enough to just watch.

(3) Heir Apparent raced wide and stuck on well for 2nd first up at Kyneton. 2nd up last prep he started $3.10 in a very strong maiden and failed, but this is easier.

(5) Vinlago next best, again off a solid run first up and having competed in some decent races last prep.

Tip: (8) Duchy Of Savoy- $1.75 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 4:17pm (AEDT)

Tough maiden. (8) The Economist comes out of a decent race when just missing Oughton, beating home Port Louis with a huge gap back to 4th. He should be at peak fitness now and with even luck from the inside will be hard to beat.

(7) Straight Arron looks like he’ll need every bit of the 1400m on debut. By Fastnet Rock out of a Tavistock staying mare, he worked to the line quite well in his most recent trial but did have to be scrubbed up. Watch for him late.

(5) Ocean Raider was solid on debut at a big price and can improve here with D Lane taking the ride, although he will likely get back in the field.

(6) Peribaldo started $6 in the same race and ran well for 4th. He sat on the speed there and stuck on well and now gets the winkers on which should help. Willo rode a double yesterday and looks to get a good run here from the barrier.

(4) Mocca Diamond is ready to break through. He held his ground on debut but improved sharply 2nd up with the blinkers on, just missing Red Rocketship who did have some strong 2yo form last prep. They gapped 3rd there in a race that went 10L above average, albeit for a Colac maiden, and from barrier 3 he can settle just behind the speed.

Tip: (4) Mocca Diamond- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mocca Diamond

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 4:52pm (AEDT)

(3) Zoutellus looks ready to do something 3rd up. He hit the line well first up before going forward last start and sticking on well in an arguably stronger class 1 at Geelong. He won 3rd up last prep and then ran huge races against the likes of Riot and Rose and Bermadez which is lengths better than this class. The only query is the predicted rain- his only failure last prep was on All Star Mile day when the track was in the heavy range. 

(1) Lucky Decision had the run but was too good here first up. He’s got upside with only the two career starts and maps for a very similar run here.

Not much between (5) Revhead and (6) Dissonance from their last start clash behind Lunares at Kyneton. The latter could have a bit more improvement to come.

Zoutellus would be a great bet if the track was going to be dry. Bit of an unknown so just playing small.

Tip: (3) Zoutellus- $10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Zoutellus

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 5:28pm (AEDT)

Keen on (3) Murrami Express who ticks a lot of boxes. He was solid first up down the straight in a slowly run race, just outsprinted by the talented Squid Game. He drops in grade here, Kah takes the ride from barrier 1, he’s handled a heavy track before and can likely lead. Deserves to be a clear favourite.

(1) Cecil Street Lad was too good despite racing greenly late at Wangaratta to break his maiden. He’s always shown a decent level of talent but has to carry the full penalty here and won’t get control here.

(4) Capo Strada was solid in the Squid Game race too and did start a couple of points shorter than Murrami Express. He’s got a couple of lengths to make up but can improve back around a bend.

(7) Sizzling Sonata ran well on debut on a soft 6 behind Spinning so should handle the conditions to some extent. She might need this run first up but should be finishing well.

Murrami Express should be going very close and is my best of the day.

Tip: (3) Murrami Express- $2.15 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Murrami Express

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 6:02pm (AEDT)

Very open race. (13) Zooming Zebra is a roughie that can run well. She had no luck last start at Wangaratta and should’ve finished much closer. All her wins have come on rain affected ground and whilst she can mix her form, she is capable at this level.

(9) Unfair Dismissal just missed first up in a very good return at a big price. The query with him is his 2nd up record, with no placings from 5 starts. He may also be looking for a rise in trip, but does handle wet tracks with no issue. 

(6) Bill The Boxer has been too strong at both career starts, the first at Dunkeld on a heavy track. This is much harder and I’m not convinced a wet track is his go- he didn’t need to be much good to win that maiden.

(1) Rathlin struggles to win but was desperately unlucky at The Valley first up. Some of his runs last prep would see him very hard to beat here, although he’s another that a wet track is a concern. 

(3) Yulong Code got into a tricky spot first up down the straight, no cover along the inside. He’s handled a soft 5 fine and some of his 3yo form reads very well for this, including a 1L 3rd to Flying Mascot. Saving on him.

Tip: (13) Zooming Zebra- $31.00/8.00 at Sportsbet

Saver: (3) Yulong Code- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.5 units E/W Zooming Zebra, 0.25 units WIN Yulong Code

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 6:32pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with (3) Basarwa 2nd up after a solid effort first up in a strong race at Flemington behind Gentleman Roy who looks very progressive. He crossed the line with Mrs Sippy who should’ve won since and last time on a soft 7 he did beat home I’m Thunderstruck at Caulfield. He gets a soft run from barrier 2, Olly jumps on, he should be hard to beat.

(4) Dundirtcheap has plenty of upside after two wins last prep. He came from the back on debut before stepping to 2000m in a fairly average class 1 and proving a touch too good on speed. He’s had a long break but the latest jumpout win was very good. 

(7) Moktaffy didn’t take long to chalk up his first win in Aus and can continue to improve although a wet track is unknown.

(5) The Stager bolted in at Terang last start and might lead these again. A wet track is a concern.

With Dundirtcheap out the price for Basarwa has plummeted. Think he’s definitely the one to beat however.

Tip: (3) Basarwa- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Basarwa

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 7:03pm (AEDT)

Keen on (4) Wegobam here after being scratched from a winnable race last week. She’s been unlucky at both runs this prep and looks ready for the 1400m now, a distance she’s somewhat struggled with in the past, albeit in harder events. She’s run well in a bm78 on a heavy track so should be fine in the conditions and the map looks ideal.

(11) Circle Of Magic keeps racing well around this level and makes her own luck. Kah sticks and from barrier 4 she’ll be thereabouts again.

(10) Yonce was too good at $1.55 on debut at Mornington. Didn’t beat much and the time was okay without raving, but she can clearly improve at start number 2.

(6) Finesse Tess is the complete blowout. She had EIPH two back and copped a lot of pressure over 1200m at The Valley last start in a race that the other leader, Apres La Mer, has won out of since. The tempo of 1400m will suit as she’s 3/3 at the trip, and she’s also a good wet tracker. Doesn’t deserve to be $61.

Just backing Wegobam with Finesse Tess scratched.

Tip: (4) Wegobam- $5.30 at BoomBet

Value: (6) Finesse Tess- $61.00/8.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Wegobam, 0.25 units E/W Finesse Tess

Odds Last Updated: January 5, 2022, 7:32pm (AEDT)

(7) Translation on top in the last. Two of her last three runs have been at The Valley which hasn’t suited around the tight circuit. The run in between at the bigger spaces of Pakenham was very good behind Marine One who is a classy 3yo. Her only go on a soft track was a dominant win, albeit in a Cranbourne maiden. 

(4) Sniper Legend needs to jump better as it cost him victory two back before getting him into a terrible spot last start, again with no luck. He’s proven on a heavy track.

(11) Northern Melody can run well first up and makes her own luck on speed.

(1) Fivefingerdiscount was just fair on a heavy track last time but it may not be as wet as Sale, which can turn into a real bog. There’s been winning form out of that race since. 

Tip: (7) Translation- $4.60 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Translation