Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, March 6th

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 12:21pm (AEDT)

(3) La Rocque is clearly the horse to beat in the opener coming off a dominant maiden win at Pakenham over 1200m where she led all the way. She did it easily in good time after beating Tycoon Humma in a jumpout, so no surprise to see her short early. I’d want even money to back her but I’m not sure we will.

 

(2) Flying Evelyn got the job done over 1000m on debut at The Valley. She got a lovely run there and won in decent style. The 4^th horse, Wanaroo stuck on well for 3^rd behind Tycoon Humma last week so there is some sort of line between the two.

 

(4) De Long Star definitely outran the SP on debut at Sandown behind what looks a very handy 2yo in Starry Legend. She ran bang on 33 seconds for her final 600m which was the 4^th fastest of the day.

 

La Rocque will be hard to beat but no value this early so I’d need a drift to get entertained. De Long Star can run a good race.

Tip: (3) La Rocque- $1.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

(7) Annavisto looks very hard to beat here, with the main danger, in my opinion Hindaam being scratched. She was far too good first up at Pakenham after sitting outside the leader and was well backed 2^nd up last prep in a Danehill where she got lost down the straight but was still only 2L off Personal. She’s come back well and should be going close.

 

(5) Cumberbatch could be the threat with Kah keeping the ride. He jumped out well leading into the first up run and did well to stick on for 2^nd behind a smart one in Tuvalu. The rest of that form is a touch suspect, but he can only improve and does drop significantly in the weights.

 

(8) Miss Inbetween was okay in the Typhoon Tracy first up but Annavisto did beat her by 3L on debut.

 

(1) Conceited resumed off a very long break and was solid behind Oxley Road but does have to carry 60kg and draws barrier one.

Tip: (7) Annavisto- $2.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Annavisto

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 1:31pm (AEDT)

Very tough. (5) Odeum is the heavy favourite and stamped herself as a quality filly last prep, winning the 1000 Guineas in a canter before just missing in an Empire Rose behind Shout The Bar. This is a different test up against some group performed males, and she is being set for 2000m in Adelaide so she might not be completely wound up.

 

(1) So Si Bon looks a big price as the group 1 WFA performed horse of the field. First up he was only beaten 3.6L by Probabeel, less than 1L off Behemoth, both of whom would be odds on here. 2^nd up last prep he ran 5^th in a Memsie and then 3^rd in a Makybe Diva. I know he’s So Si Bon, but this is a huge drop in class from group 1 to listed.

 

(3) Iconoclasm beat So Si Bon at The Valley last prep over 1500m and whilst he can be a bit hit and miss, his 1400m Flemington record is still very good and he gets in very well with 55.5kg, meeting So Si Bon 3.5kg better off for beating him home that night. Lane maps to find the back of the leader and peel out at the perfect time.

 

(2) Pretty Brazen beat Arcadia Queen at this T/D last prep and has a great record at 1400m, which is a better starting point than the 1200m first up last prep.

 

Tip: (1) So Si Bon- $10.00 at TAB

Value: (3) Iconoclasm- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN So Si Bon, 0.5 units WIN Iconoclasm

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

Keen to stick with (10) Hitotsu up to 1400m. I stuck up for him in the Blue Diamond at $201+ and whilst he was outclassed, he was only beaten 5L and ran the 3^rd fastest last 200m of the race and is clearly crying out for 1400m. I think he can settle closer from barrier 5 up in trip, and he comes out of the best form.

 

(2) Paulele looks the horse to beat. He won his first two races, one in Melbourne and one in Sydney, before racing wide on speed behind Home Affairs in a fairly strong 2yo race first up. He struck trouble late there too and did start favourite. The 1400m is perhaps a query but I think the Sydney form holds up well here.

 

(14) Wolves comes through the Blue Diamond and was a similar run to Hitotsu, getting back and running on okay. She’s another that wants 1400m but does draw wide and may go back as she did in the Blue Diamond.

 

(3) Lightsaber led and did it easily last start over 1400m and maps for a lovely run again from barrier 3. Not sure he beat much but he’ll run the trip and be on speed.

 

Tip: (2) Paulele- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Hitotsu- $14.00 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Paulele, 0.5 units WIN Hitotsu

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(2) Oxley Road is the horse to beat coming off two straight wins. He didn’t beat much on debut down the straight, but did it easily, and again was a comfortable winner at Caulfield over 1200m. He got a very easy lead there and I think he’ll cop a lot more pressure here back to 1100m.

 

(1) Ranting will be the strongest late, even with 61kg. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal, but I’d expect J Kah to come underneath them and get to the right lanes. He held his ground midfield in the Oakleigh Plate first up which is clearly the strongest form line, and he was only beaten 2.7L. 2^nd up last prep he motored home for a narrow 5^th in a strong race, and his effort down the straight in a Danehill was very good.

 

(5) Marboosha has trialled very well and did run a narrow 2^nd to Written Beauty here in the Red Roses. The map is a bit tricky for her from barrier 2 with pace drawn outside her.

 

(7) Pinkham ran well first up behind La Mexicana and pulled up with post-race issues. She can improve.

Tip: (1) Ranting- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ranting

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap, please follow the link below.

Newmarket Handicap Runner-by-Runner

 

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

Tough mare’s race. (5) Scarlet Dream finds a winnable race first up, but she has had plenty of chances. From 5 first up starts she’s run 2^nd at 4 of them so she probably has to be played each way, but 1600m on a big, dry track is ideal fresh and she can definitely run a place again.

 

(7) Lunakorn was unlucky at Caulfield last start behind Rich Hips and Perfect Jewel. She was 9 weeks between runs there so should strip fitter and draws out rather than barrier one. She’s the horse to beat and I don’t want to lose on her.

 

(6) Quantum Mechanic is one of mine, but this is much harder, and she loses J Kah which is enough to put me off.

 

(4) Moonlight Maid got going late in the Lunakorn race and will eat up 1600m at Flemington, but she might need one more and 2000m to really show her best.

Tip: (5) Scarlet Dream E/W- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Lunakorn- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5/1 unit E/W Scarlet Dream, 1 unit WIN Lunakorn

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

The 2^nd of the Group 1’s on Super Saturday- the WFA Australian Cup over 2000m. This year’s field is lacking a bit of quality, but we’ve got a wide open betting race and plenty of angles. Expect Homesman to come across and lead with Best Of Days and Miss Siska, with Paradee close up from the inside. The favourite Fifty Stars draws awkwardly and probably gets back on the rails.

 

(3) Fifty Stars is clearly the horse to beat off what he did last start. The jury was out after his somewhat disappointing run first up in Sydney, but he bounced back with a huge run over 1600m in a very fast run race, making up huge late ground to run a narrow 2^nd to Star Of The Seas. He’s proven on the quick backup, his 2000m Flemington record, especially in the Autumn, is very good, and he beat a better field in this race last year. If he’d drawn 8-12, I’d be nearly declaring him, but barrier 3 is a bit sticky. I’m willing to take the chance he gets luck because at $4.40 he’s too good a price to ignore.

 

(14) Nonconformist has come through the traditional lead ups and looks set to peak here 3^rd up. He’s undefeated when 3^rd up from a spell and also at 2000m, which he gets to here. He also gets blinkers on first time for the grand final which looks a set play, and he’s been set for this race and only this race. The wide barrier hurts- they won’t want to get back to last so maybe they roll the dice and try to follow Homesman across and try to slot in off the speed. If that happens, he’s a huge chance.

 

(6) Angel Of Truth was one of the runs of the race in the Peter Young when coming from a long way back. He is one with some tactical speed so potentially he’s another that tries to push on from out wide. He’s definitely one to include at $21.

 

I think (10) Platoon is the best roughie in the race at $31. He’s had a strange prep but that isn’t too uncommon for the stable, and I loved his run last week over 1400m when running the meeting’s fastest last 200m. He was racing over 2400m in the Perth Cup only three starts ago and getting back out to 2000m definitely suits. He’s got a great turn of foot and is drawn to get into the running line and present at the right time.

 

They’re the 4 that interest me the most from a betting perspective, but it wouldn’t shock if (1) Humidor exploded 2^nd up at 2000m, (12) Defibrillate won again or (17) Paradee got every favour and clung on again.

Tip: (3) Fifty Stars- $4.40 at TAB

Also Backing: (14) Nonconformist- $12.00 at Bet365

Value: (10) Platoon- $31.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Fifty Stars, 0.5 units WIN Nonconformist, 0.25 units WIN Platoon, 0.25 units WIN Angel Of Truth

Odds Last Updated: March 6, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

Fairly keen to play two horses here. (1) Personal is the horse to beat off what she did in the Spring where she ran 2^nd in the 1000 Guineas and won the VRC Oaks. She was no match for Zou Dancer first up, with that filly acquitting herself well in the Australian Guineas since. She should have come on rapidly from that and the 1600m obviously suits.

 

(10) Miss Guggenheim is the other I want to back at $6.50. She had no luck first up in the Armanasco where she missed the start, got back to last and was badly held up for basically all of the straight. Her work through the line was good and I don’t mind her drawn out here. She was again luckless at this T/D last prep and should’ve beaten most of these home that day, as she should’ve last start.

 

(3) Chica Fuerte ran on okay out wide in the Armanasco but did have every chance to build into the race and only beat Miss Guggenheim by a length. She did beat that filly home in the Spring but had every favour that day.

 

(2) Yes Baby Yes absolutely fell in to win the lead up and had every favour in a messy race behind. Confident some turn the tables despite J Kah sticking.

 

Personal on top but Miss Guggenheim will be the better result at the odds. Think this is a good two horse play to end the day.

Tip: (1) Personal- $3.00 at Bet365

Value: (10) Miss Guggenheim- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Personal, 1.5 units WIN Miss Guggenheim