Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, October 2nd

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 12:11pm (AEDT)

Early, unraced 2yo’s aren’t where I bet with confidence so I’m staying out, but (7) Robusto is probably the horse to beat off a soft jumpout win. Prebble on for Waller, seen the straight, he should be hard to beat.

(9) Cavallo Rampante has jumped out against the Gimcrack short priced favourite Coolangatta which should be respected.

Tip: (7) Robusto- $3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 12:41pm (AEDT)

Tricky race for the 3yo’s on a Derby path. There’s no doubt (4) Footlights was awful in the Derby trial last Wednesday- he was the first horse off the bit and went very badly, but to counter that, nothing in the race made ground- the first two out were the first two home and nothing that settled worse than midfield finished within 5 lengths of the winner. I’d have loved to see him up in trip because he’s a pure stayer, but he does get the blinkers on which is interesting. Off his SP there and his two prior runs I’m going to follow my money.

(7) Hitotsu is the other horse I’m backing. Always had a decent opinion of this horse, having run some of the better late sectionals in the Blue Diamond and VRC Sires. He resumed with a soft kill in a Donald maiden at $1.24, only getting clear late but showing a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed within 50m. I don’t think many of these horses have a turn of foot, and if it’s another sit and sprint, he’s the horse to beat.

(8) Gunstock looks more of a dour stayer but did win well at Cranbourne and should map quite well.

Tip: (7) Hitotsu- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Value: (4) Footlights- $15.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Hitotsu, 0.25 units WIN Footlights

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 1:16pm (AEDT)

Looks some horses at huge prices here that should be much shorter. The Sydney filly (7) Mokulua should be nearly half her price. She’s still a maiden, but two back she sat on a fast tempo and was only run down very late by Spring Champion favourite Profondo. She then went to the Tea Rose and ran on well, beaten 4L by Four Moves Ahead. She looks like 1600m will be ideal now, Prebble should roll forward from the wide gate in a race without a stack of speed, and she just comes through better form.

(6) Swamp Vixen can run a race at huge odds too. She was given no hope of winning first up at Bendigo, sitting 4 and 5in wide no cover back in the field in a race where the first two out were the first two home. She gets the blinkers on which she wore in her first prep- beating Sandy Prince on debut and starting $5 in a Mornington Sires when unsuited. Another that draws wide but surely they go forward and own this race.

(1) Yearning is racing here which is surprising. She has to be a huge chance given she started $2.45 in the Kensington maiden, running home hard to finish just behind Mokula. Only Jameea had a faster last 200m in the Furious Stakes and I don’t think 1600m will be an issue from a good draw.

(9) Caliper started $3 against Bons A Pearla two back and was arguably the better run, with that filly since winning the Elusive Express lead up. She had no hope after missing the start at Cranbourne last start and will appreciate 1600m.

Tip: (7) Mokula- $9.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Yearning- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (6) Swamp Vixen- $41.00 at Bet365 & (9) Caliper- $51.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mokula, 0.75 units WIN Yearning, 0.25 units WIN Swamp Vixen, 0.25 units WIN Caliper

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 1:51pm (AEDT)

Good little race and I’m going with (3) Kemalpasa who loves this T/D. His only miss was a 3rd in this race to Zoutori, beaten 0.2 lengths. He did beat Zoutori with less weight over this T/D two years ago. I liked his first up run in Adelaide with 62kg, conceding 8kg to the winner but battling on very well for a 0.6L 2nd. He goes well 2nd up and gets D Lane on.

(1) Zoutori obviously loves this T/D having won a Newmarket here. He was solid first up giving away significant weight to the field, coming from midfield to run 4th. He’d potentially prefer a bone-dry track which we may not be on.

(8) Bons Abroad isn’t completely hopeless. She’s up a long way in grade, but she was a very good run first up when looking a big chance and being stopped in her tracks late. That’s backed up by the sectionals- her 800-600 split was fastest of the race, her 600-400 was 6th fastest, her 400-200 was the fastest when charging, and her last 200m was 5th fastest basically under a hold. She’s got a good finish on her day and has run 2nd at 3 out of 4 second up starts. Her only run down the straight was a good win, and if they sit up, she’s got the turn of foot to have an impact.

Tip: (3) Kemalpasa- $4.20 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Bons Abroad- $19.00/4.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Kemalpasa, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Bons Abroad

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 2:26pm (AEDT)

Off SP’s last start, (1) Ingratiating has to be given another chance. He started $2 over this T/D, looked home for all money trading very short in run and was nabbed on the line. A couple of factors to note: there was a headwind down the straight that day and Ingratiating faced it the entire, and he gets the blinkers on for the first time this prep after looking like he waited for them last start. He had them on in his Blue Diamond narrow 2nd, and his Golden Slipper 3rd. He also meets the winner 2kg better at the weights.

(4) Ranch Hand won that race first up off a good trial and surprised me, because I didn’t think he’d be sharp enough at 1100m. Query is he stays at 1100m and started 7x Ingratiating’s price, but he was quite badly held up and sprinted very impressively to win. Not sure what to do with him.

(9) Forbes is a big price for a horse with his level of talent. He threw the race away against Anamoe on debut and clearly is a complete nutcase, but he did hit the line quite well first up behind General Beau at $8.50 and is $46 here.

(10) Mornington Glory was a dominant winner on debut off the back of some exceptional trials. I’d love to see him with something to follow down the straight, but his 400-200m split when asked to sprint on debut was the fastest of the meeting. He can measure up.

Stacks of other chances- no idea what they do with General Beau after riding him cold last start, Ranveer was good in the same race and has straight experience, Kallos won very nicely first up, Bruckner and Gimmie Par not out of it…

Tip: (1) Ingratiating- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (10) Mornington Glory- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Forbes- $46.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Ingratiating, 0.5 units WIN Mornington Glory, 0.25 units WIN Forbes

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

(3) Mystic Journey has to go on top. I loved her return in the Let’s Elope, sitting very wide without cover for most of the race, yet running the meeting’s fastest last 400/200m to get within 1.25L of Turaath, who is flying. She’s got an outstanding 2nd up record and although she’ll never get back to her very best days, she did win a group 2 Stocks last prep and probably should’ve won an Empire Rose with more luck. The draw is perfect for her because she likes room, if Nolen can get cover and peel out early in the straight, she’s going to flying home. Keen.

(9) Annavisto got close to Turaath first up in a good return and won last start after leading all the way. I think she actually went too slow in front there and should improve in a faster race and there is more pressure here, but Mystic Journey loves a fast tempo so it’s a double edged sword for her.

(7) Still A Star is very consistent but Mystic Journey did finish over the top of her first up after enjoying a much better run.

(1) Odeum comes here first up and took on some high quality races last prep. First up last prep at this T/D she should’ve gone close to winning at listed level, but she has to cop the full penalty here as a recent group 1 winner.

 

Tip: (3) Mystic Journey- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Mystic Journey

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of a mouth-watering Turnbull Stakes, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/turnbull-stakes-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Fascinating edition of the Bart Cummings with a Melbourne Cup berth up for grabs. (10) Sheraz is a fascinating runner first up in Australia from France. He’s coming off a dominant 4.5 length win at listed level and before that was beaten (by 4.5L) by Skazino, who won a group 2 by 6L at his most recent start. Sheraz also finished 1.5L off In Swoop at Longchamp, and that horse has run 2nd in an Arc to Sottsass. It’s tricky to line up, but there’s got to be big intent here with Olly booked and needing to win. The one query is a good track- he’s never won on one, but the 3rd to Sublimis and In Swoop beaten 2.3L at $5 on a good track is surely good enough to win this, and the track should have some give.

(8) Port Guillaume was absolutely awful first up in the Feehan, beaten out of sight. He improved stacks 2nd up behind Nonconformist, running the race fastest last 1000/800/600m in tight room. Going back to his European days, he wasn’t disgraced in a group 1 when beaten 3.75L by Mishriff, who is one of the best horses in the world and would win a Cox Plate by as far as you can kick your hat. Port Guillaume also has comfortable wins over Gold Trip, who is $11 in the Cox Plate and gets out to an ideal trip 3rd up.

(13) Tralee Rose was very good in the lead up along the inside which wasn’t the best ground. Her win here in the Bagot was utterly dominant, but she’s drawn the carpark on a tricky start.

(5) Amade ran well in the same race off a wide run and did improve lengths 2nd up last prep to win comfortably here over 2600m in a weaker race.

Tip: (10) Sheraz- $6.50 at TopSport

Value: (8) Port Guillaume- $15.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Sheraz, 0.25 units WIN Port Guillaume

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

Having something on (5) Morvada 2nd up. He was caught 3 and 4 wide no cover first up in Adelaide over 1100m and stuck on well, only 1.7L off Kemalpasa. He typically improves 2nd up, and 1400m is his ideal distance. He is a group 3 winner at this T/D, and that was with D Lane aboard who rated him perfectly that day. He’s only missed the top 3 once at this T/D and maps to find the front easily from barrier 2.

(1) Aysar went very well in the Rupert Clarke and off that run alone he’d be close to a moral here, but it is Aysar and he’s promised a bit before. He gets a lovely map but his earlier form this prep was just fair and I don’t think a slower run race will suit as much.

(9) Tavidance is one of mine and trialled very well leading into this, but the stable have suggested he’s not quite there fitness wise. We could be on a drying track by now too and I prefer him on proper rain affected surfaces.

Tip: (5) Morvada- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Morvada