Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, October 2nd

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 11:51am (AEDT)

(5) Ashema was good first up behind Belluci Babe at Gosford, coming from the back of the field to run 3rd. Showed a stack of ability as a juvenile with placings in three Stakes races in her final three starts last prep. The bar plates come off her front feet here which is a good sign and Tommy Berry takes the ride. Will need a good ride from barrier 9 but it looks a nice race for her.

(4) Capital Reign has won four from five career starts but does face a stiffer test here. He’s a short-course specialist and will make his own luck again from the front.

(3) Oh Please Dianna is the stablemate to Ashema and gets JMac booked for Annabel Neasham so is sure to be popular. Won on the same day as Ashema placed at Gosford, but the time for her race was much slower than that of Ashema’s race.

(8) Rejinsky draws wide but did bolt in first up last prep and can be kept safe at double figure odds with no trial.

Tip: (5) Ashema $6.50/$2.38 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Ashema

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

We saw the Maher-Eustace stable unleash a very smart youngster in last year’s Gimcrack Stakes with Enthaar bolting in, and it looks a similar case this year with (2) Coolangatta. James McDonald partnered Enthaar last year and he’ll partner Coolangatta here after steering her to an explosive trial win. She’s currently $1.95 and with any luck she looks the one to beat.

(8) Pantonario was outclassed in her trial but it would be a risk leaving out a Gai Waterhouse runner drawn barrier 1 on debut in a juvenile race like this.

(12) Wild Calm finished 2nd to Coolongatta in her trial and can be included for Annabel Neasham and Tommy Berry.

(7) Okami Miss finished off well in the same trial as Pantonario to run 2nd.

Tip: (2) Coolangatta $1.90 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Coolangatta

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

In the past 10 years, just four trainers have won the Breeder’s Plate: Waller x 3, Snowden x 2, Waterhouse x 4 and Maher-Eustace x 1. Waller has won three of the last four editions of the race and ran 3rd the year he didn’t win. He’s getting very good at setting the right horse for this race and this year’s runner is (14) Zambezi River with James McDonald booked to ride from a good draw.

Zambezi River ran 2nd to (13) Victory Moments in his only trial. Victory Moments is favourite here and his win in that trial was quite incredible viewing. He jumped well early, went forward, then mid-trial restrained back, before surging past them with a terrific turn of foot to win. He was placed under more pressure than Zambezi River but he also overcame a tougher run. This just isn’t a stable I can be backing when they have a horse favourite for a feature race in Sydney.

Waterhouse/Bott have two runners in the form of (4) Kibou and (10) Resonator, the former being the second favourite at $4.00. Both won their trials and have to be respected.

The one at double figure odds to include is (5) Master Showman who sat wide throughout his trial behind Resonator and now comes up with the inside draw.

Tip: (14) Zambezi River $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Zambezi River

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

I’m expecting some improvement from (1) Just Thinkin’ today. This is a field of suspects and he’s one of them, but his first up run was sound and the stable are airborne at present. Rewind to this time last year and he won a BM94 race over a similar distance here at Randwick, albeit with much less weight. Drops from a G3 back to a BM88 today, Nash Rawiller booked, probably just doesn’t want too wet of a track. Rawiller also jumps off last-start winner Kiss The Bride to ride Just Thinkin’.

(8) Wairere Falls was meant to be ridden midfield last start but that didn’t eventuate. He’s running well and if they can be more positive today he could be going close.

(7) Taksu probably becomes the horse to beat if the rain does come down. He loves the wet conditions and was only touched off late last start.

(2) Kiss The Bride had its birthday last start and (3) Bigboyroy just keeps finding one or two too good, but both get their chance again.

Tip: (1) Just Thinkin' $14 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Just Thinkin'

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Think It Over is my best bet of the day here. He is a legitimate Group 1 performer and finds himself very well placed in this race, giving away just 3kg to the bottom-weighted horse. He nearly should have won the Winx Stakes first up, before he did win the Chelmsford second up. He was brave in defeat behind Verry Elleegant and Riodini in the George Main last time out, sitting wide without cover throughout. Up to 2000m now which is no concern as he has two wins at this track and distance. Handles all surfaces, draws well and looks the class runner with minimal spread in the weights. If he turns up it’s all over.

(8) Duais was the G1 Queensland Oaks winner in the Winter and resumed with a terrific run in the G3 Cameron handicap at Newcastle. Up to 2000m suits but she gets just 3kg off Think It Over which is my main query.

Waller could have (3) Shared Ambition ready to go in a race like this third up with JMac sticking, while (2) Keiai Nautique looks suited up to 2000m now.

Tip: (1) Think It Over $1.92 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Think It Over

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

I’d be surprised if (1) Masked Crusader or (7) Lost And Running wasn’t winning this. Both failed to deliver in The Shorts last start and I’m sure they’ll be looking for sharp improvement ahead of The Everest. Masked Crusader was just never in the race in The Shorts, ridden like he was Chautauqua. Not sure why they are so intent on riding this horse dead cold, but I’d love to see a bit more intent today from the draw with Tommy Berry back on.

Lost And Running sat wide throughout in The Shorts, back in the field. He never fired a shot but with much less tempo in today’s race, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see him ridden much more aggressively like he was last preparation when he was belting everything.

(5) Rothfire was very good at his first run back from injury but I wonder if that was a gut buster for him and I also wonder whether that was as good as he can go. We’ll find out.

Tip: (1) Masked Crusader $2.45 BoomBet

Saver: (7) Lost And Running $6.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Masked Crusader, 0.5 units WIN Lost And Running

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

Very tough Flight Stakes as these fillies have been taking turns winning.

(8) Von Trapp gets a horrible barrier draw but she’s some sort of chance at double figure odds. She was a big run for 4th in the Tea Rose Stakes last start where she didn’t get much luck in the straight. She finished off really well, indicating the mile will suit. Whether she has too much to do from that gate is the concern.

(4) She’s All Class hasn’t shown anything in her two runs back this time in but JMac sticks for Waller and the blinkers go on for the first time in what is surely her main target for the prep. That’s a scary set up but I just don’t think she’s going well enough.

It could come down to who gets the best run when splitting the likes of (1) Four Moves Ahead, (2) Mallory and (3) Swift Witness.There was about half-a-length splitting them in the Tea Rose and the best ride could be the difference.

Tip: (8) Von Trapp $13 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Von Trapp

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

A wide-open Epsom Handicap and the track pattern and track rating will play a big part here. Must back a few runners.

(1) Mo’unga carries top weight of 57kg but that might not stop him winning. We’ve seen the class horses able to carry that sort of weight to victory in this race and he certainly brings the right form. He beat Verry Elleegant first up, who then went on to win a Group 1 at her next start, and he was narrowly beaten by a potential superstar in Incentivise last start. Back to Sydney, third up at the Randwick mile, he ticks plenty of boxes and has to be a bet at $8.00.

(6) Hungry Heart needs a firm track so if the rain comes, her chances are dented. Her run in the George Main last start was very good and she now drops to 52kg third up at the mile.

(10) Aramayo is in a similar boat to Hungry heart – he has been super in two runs for Waller but probably wants it as firm as possible. Has a great record at the mile.

If you had have told me a month ago that (9) Riodini would be favourite for the Epsom, I’d have laughed. He’s completely turned his form around in the past two starts, almost stealing both the Chelmsford Stakes and the George Main. He now drops from 59kg to 51.5kg so he’s very well placed. Will run them along with the featherweight from the wide draw and would be no surprise if he just ran them into the ground.

(11) Reloaded was a great run last week in the Shannon Stakes and now comes into this on the quick backup. Whether he has the class is the query but he gets Group 1 Glen Boss on, who is a freak in these Randwick Mile features. Something on him at $23.

(16) Harmony Rose started close enough to favourite in the Bill Ritchie but never really saw daylight. Suddenly she is a $26 chance here with 50.5kg. Not the worst.

Hard to know how to play this race but something small on Mo’unga and Reloaded for me.

Tip: (1) Mo'unga $8.00 TopSport

Value: (11) Reloaded $23 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Mo'unga, 0.5 units WIN Reloaded

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

Another wide-open contest for The Metropolitan.

Amazingly, you have to go back to 2000 to find the last female winner of this race, which spices things up given two of the top three in betting are mares.

(14) Entente delivered last week when we were on and he comes here on the quick backup for the third weekend in a row. He was fairly dominant in the Colin Stephen and down in the weights from a good draw, he’s going to get his chance again here.

(10) Le Don De Vie was given a hitout over 2040m first up at Moonee Valley when ridden by an apprentice. They now step him straight up to 2400m second up with Glen Boss booked. He was a dominant winner of the Warrnambool Cup last prep when he got out to this distance. Expecting him to run a big race at big odds.

(9) Attorney looks a complete set up job here. He’s had two runs back from a spell and now James McDonald goes on third up, up to 2400m in a Group 1. He won third up last prep over this distance so he should be ready to show his best here.

(15) Great House next best.

Tip: (14) Entente $7.00 TAB

Also Backing: (9) Attorney $12 TAB

Value: (10) Le Don De Vie $31 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Entente, 0.5 units WIN Attorney, 0.5 units WIN Le Don De Vie

Odds Last Updated: October 2, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

Looks a nice race for (12) Gravina. She’s won three of her four starts at this distance, is undefeated at the track and distance, and is likely to get the wet track she needs to show her best. Was good first up, should improve and looks hard to beat.

(1) Big Parade was absolutely truckloaded in betting last start but the money went astray with him only battling away for 3rd. If he gets a soft track he might be able to bounce back because his first up win was too god to ignore.

(2) Prime Candidate gets JMac booked first up which catches the eye, and Bowman goes on (3) Rocketing By fresh.

(7) Marway isn’t hopeless while I’ll be watching the market on European import (11) Arapaho who resumes for his second Australian prep.

Tip: (12) Gravina $2.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Gravina