Flemington Racing Tips: Sunday, April 25th

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 1:02pm (AEDT)

Extremely keen on (1) Persan here, who is my best bet of the day. He was a very good winner first up at The Valley and backed it up with a strong 2^nd over 2000m at Caulfield, getting a long way back from a wide gate and running the race fastest last 200m when Hang Man just edged him out. He gets to Flemington, where he’s won 4 from 6, the only misses a 0.2L 2^nd over 2500m to Lord Belvedere, and a 5^th in a Melbourne Cup. Meets a lot of these better at the weights after the claim, draws better and I think he’ll win.

 

(4) Amade was good first up in Australia in the Easter Cup, 1.5L off Persan after racing a bit tight. The step up in trip will definitely suit given he’s won over 2 miles in the USA, but he does meet Persan 4kg worse off and started $17 there. Looks the logical danger but I think Persan has him covered for now.

 

(6) Mohican Heights is flying and won well last start but this is harder again.

 

Tip: (1) Persan- $2.05 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Persan

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 1:37pm (AEDT)

I’d love this to be 1800m or 2000m for a couple of my bets here but at the prices I’m going to have something on (7) Zayydani. I’ve always had a bit of time for this mare since her SA Oaks and Derby runs and she showed something last start after an average run first up. She hit the line strongly for a narrow 2^nd to Indispensable over the mile, meaning she’s only missed the quinella once from five goes at the trip. Looks ready to win and has been backed early.

 

Also in that race was (9) Carrie who boxed on nicely for a narrow 3^rd. She was only 1^st up at the 1600m there so should improve and did win 2^nd up last prep. Willo sticks with her, she draws beautifully in barrier 3 and gets in with 54kg. Going back to last prep, she did start $7 in a Pinker Pinker Plate behind West Wind, with Realm Of Flowers also in that race.

 

(1) Re Edit is racing well and has Kah on but always needs luck getting back from a wide gate and her 12% win strike rate is indicative of that, especially when she’s $2.90 favourite. Can obviously win but is short enough.

 

(5) Good And Proper is on the quick backup and gets to 1600m which could suit.

 

Happy to back Zayydani and Carrie, both at double figures.

Tip: (7) Zayydani- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (9) Carrie- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zayydani, 0.5 units WIN Carrie

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

(5) Sartorial Splendor is going very well and looks better suited at the 1000m today than the 1200m of yesterday, but the straight track is the query given he’s never seen it. His best asset is a high cruising speed and kicking away around a bend.

 

(3) Ididitforlove was okay in the same race last start, finishing 1.4L behind the favourite. Has won down the straight before which could prove valuable.

 

(1) Halvorsen is better over 1100/1200m but drops significantly in grade after taking on the Newmarket and Lightning at his last two.

 

Tip: (5) Sartorial Splendor- $2.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

(3) Cheerful Legend looks suited stepping back out to 1400m. He started $2.70 favourite last start, got over racing behind runners off a very slow speed and ended up pulling up lame. He meets Hunnam 3kg better and despite the wide draw I think he can bounce back.

 

(2) Hunnam finally broke through last start with blinkers on, leading all the way. He got every favour there but does look suited stepping up in trip again.

 

(7) He’s The Ultimate beat Hunnam home on debut, running 2^nd to Najmaty over 1100m. Nolen jumps on from barrier one although he goes straight up to 1400m.

 

(16) Seacole beat Cheerful Legend home at Sandown and gets J Kah on after meeting that horse 1.5kg better for doing so. The barrier hurts and she’s 12 weeks between runs, but that’s not a huge issue for Maher/Eustace.

Tip: (3) Cheerful Legend- $8.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (16) Seacole- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Cheerful Legend, 0.25 units WIN Seacole

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

Looks to be two winning chances. (1) Immortal Love was very good late first up over 1100m and getting out to 1400m will suit. He’s clearly the best performed horse in the race, hence the 60kg, and barrier 6 gives Newitt options. His first go at the T/D was a dominant 3.5L win over Khoekhoe.

 

(2) South Parade is flying and should keep pressing onto lead from a wide barrier. Gets in with 53.5kg after the claim and will take some running down. Keeps raising the bar and has fitness over the topweight.

 

(7) Real Sensation should’ve won at The Valley last start over the mile and has been freshened up dropping back in trip. Barrier one with Egan on is some query given he’ll likely get back.

 

(10) Canadian Gold next best with Kah on.

Tip: (1) Immortal Love- $3.90 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) South Parade- $5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Immortal Love, 1.5 units WIN South Parade

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

Does look a race in two between the favourites and there is a distinct line between them through the ATC Derby winner, Explosive Jack. (1) Favreau wasn’t given much hope in that Derby- Berry took off from the back of the field at the 800m and understandably knocked up late after doing too much work.

 

(3) Through Irish Eyes ran on well for 2^nd to Liquero last start at Caulfield, with that horse having beaten Explosive Jack (although I think Explosive Jack was a much better run) at Bendigo.

 

There’s very little between them, but I’m siding with the Sydney form and Olly getting everything out of Favreau late, who should eat up 2800m.

Tip: (1) Favreau- $3.10 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Favreau

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

(9) Kenya is a horse I have plenty of time for after two very good runs last prep. He absolutely bolted in first up at Mornington in a glorified bm70 in fast time, before starting $3.30 and running 2^nd to Junipal in the Sandown Stakes. The market and yard comments could be the best guide to how forward he is, and if he’s ready to go he’ll be very hard to beat.

 

At cricket score odds I think (14) Prince Ziggy will outrun his price and isn’t completely hopeless. He didn’t have much luck first up and his 2^nd up record is much better than his fresh record. He’s $101 now and I expect he’ll start double that on betfair.

 

(5) All Too Huiying was awful first up but improved sharply 2^nd up and looks ready to win.

 

(8) Vassilator will be hitting the line strongly from the back and loves Flemington.

Tip: (9) Kenya- $3.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (14) Prince Ziggy- $101 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Kenya, 0.25 units E/W Prince Ziggy (Betfair SP)

Odds Last Updated: April 25, 2021, 5:07pm (AEDT)

(6) Redwood Shadow returned well over 1400m and the further the better. His run in the Norman Robinson last prep was very good, but he’ll get a long way back from the wide gate and there doesn’t look to be a stack of tempo.

 

(14) Wisaka could be a horse to roll forward and broke his maiden in dominant fashion first up over 1600m. His run in the Geelong Classic was good before failing in the Vic Derby (as did Redwood Shadow).

 

(5) Horrifying got the maiden out of the way as the $1.24 favourite, doing it easily there. Draws the carpark here with Kah on.

 

I’m convinced (4) Black Penn is going well without luck or a solid race shape, but is wearing a bit thin and might not get the right tempo here again.

 

Tip: (6) Redwood Shadow- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet