Flemington Racing Tips: Thursday, November 4th

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 12:44pm (AEDT)

(11) Spectacle can run a nice race at odds. It was a tough day to lead at Ballarat last start with strong headwinds and she did well to stick on against the pattern. She started favourite there and is now $17 with Currie taking over.

(8) Americain Angel started $1.85 2nd up and couldn’t quite reel in one on speed. She’s clearly looking for more ground and the extra 100m at Flemington will help.

Tip: (11) Spectacle- $17.00/4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Spectacle

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 1:19pm (AEDT)

(1) Sirileo Miss is flying and was a tough winner last time at Caulfield. She’s unbeaten this prep and will get every chance again from the draw.

(2) Foxy Frida flew home to just miss Sirileo Miss last start. Her best form is at Flemington and she meets Sirileo Miss better at the weights.

(3) Zing comes down from Sydney which has been very potent this carnival. She doesn’t win out of turn but was excellent first up from the back and races best on soft tracks. 2nd up last prep she was 0.1L off Great House which reads well, and her form around the likes of Count De Rupee is also excellent.

Tip: (3) Zing- $4.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zing

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 1:59pm (AEDT)

Very tough with a big field of 2yo’s, many on debut. (5) Impel is a big price. She comes out of the premiere lead-up won by Kiki Express. Brereton and Renosu filled the placings there and ran the quinella on Tuesday. Impel knuckled at the start and ended up last. I thought she ran on okay and might run a bit better than her massive odds.

(1) Kiki Express got the bob in to win that race and is a huge chance again. Drawing right out might mean Lane goes to the outside fence.

(3) Magic Carpet is probably the horse to beat of the raced ones. Her 4th in the Kiki Express race was very good coming from a fair way back.

Tip: (5) Impel- $81.00/21.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Impel

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 2:39pm (AEDT)

Open betting race, but (8) Fifth Position looks a bet given the track will have genuine give in it. He was back and wide first up on a good track which is not his go. He finished 11th but was working home well, his last 400/200m the 3rd fastest of the race. He’s been a bit of a tease in Australia but this is a very winnable race.

(11) Grinzinger Allee is easily up to a race like this at his best. I thought he was a definite pass mark first up behind Imperial Lad in a fairly strong bm78. He can mix his form but has had an 1000m jumpout in between races and looked to go well from the awful quality vision. 

(4) Mystery Shot comes out of two good form races but does get back up in the weights now.

Tip: (8) Fifth Position- $7.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (11) Grinzinger Allee- $16.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Fifth Position, 0.25 units WIN Grinzinger Allee

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 3:19pm (AEDT)

(16) Espiona looks very talented. She was a trial star before bolting in with a maiden at Warwick Farm, starting $1.45 and beating Arranmore by 3.5L, who won its maiden easily on Tuesday. The 2nd favourite Roots raced on Tuesday and will surely be scratched, meaning Espiona will be deep into the red.

(3) Decent Raine looks the value/danger. She had no luck and probably should’ve won at The Valley two back before heading to Sydney where she was again unlucky behind Fangirl with 59kg, beaten 2.5L into 3rd. Fangirl was an enormous winner on Derby Day and looks very talented and she likes wet tracks. Happy to be with her each way to try and beat the favourite who I can see needing a good ride in a big field (think Joviality).

(13) Star Waltz has had no luck her last two- one of many held up two back at Caulfield before racing 3 wide no cover last start at The Valley at $14. Lane sticks with her again and she’s come up big odds. I thought she was brave to the line off that run and hopefully gets a better run here.

Tip: (13) Star Waltz- $81.00/18.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Star Waltz

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 3:54pm (AEDT)

Very keen on (8) Malkovich who is my best of the day. He was excellent first up when just run down by Oxley Road late, and whilst that horse failed next start he did start favourite in a group 2. Malkovich has never won first up but is unbeaten 2nd up and likes soft tracks. This is his first go down the straight but he should just be too fast for these.

(15) Starry Legend was a very good run last start at The Valley when not much went right, missing the start and hunting up mid-race, setting it up for the closers. I was keen to follow him but he strikes a hot race and a genuinely soft track would be some query.

(10) Written Beauty is very talented if Waller can harness her energy, but I was keen to back her at $15 on Derby Day and here she is at $4.80. Jmac on, drawn wide, has won down the straight, she’s a winning chance.

(3) Prezado is clearly the best roughie. He loves the Flemington 1000m but doesn’t want it too wet. He’s been rock solid in two runs this prep, has placed 3 times from 5 starts when 3rd up and his T/D record is excellent.

Tip: (8) Malkovich- $2.70 at PlayUp

Value: (3) Prezado- $23.00/5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 3.75 units WIN Malkovich, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Prezado

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 4:34pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race for the country series final. (2) Riot And Rose was simply too good when covering ground with cover first up at Horsham to remain unbeaten. His one go at 1600m was a dominant victory at Caulfield but he’ll have to be good to win from the carpark draw.

(5) My Boy Birmingham converted his synthetic win to turf last start with a dominant win at Benalla. A soft track probably isn’t ideal but he’s flying.

(6) Real Sensation was very good behind Riot And Rose first up and will appreciate getting to 1600m.

(12) Typhoon Harmony might be overs. His run at Geelong last start was very good, coming from in the fastest last 200m of the race behind Legend Of Zorro, beaten 0.9L. He now meets that horse 2.5kg better and did start $4.40 to his $6.50 there, producing a bigger run. Can’t see 1600m being an issue off that and the map looks okay to hopefully sit 3 wide with cover in the running line, which I think will be the place to be in this big field.

Tip: (12) Typhoon Harmony- $19.00/6.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units WIN Typhoon Harmony

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 5:14pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 VRC Oaks, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/vrc-oaks-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 5:54pm (AEDT)

Super keen to back (15) Spinning. She was one of a few unlucky runners last start and I think she should’ve gone close to winning. I love the wide draw for her which I think will be the best place to be down the straight by race 9, and Olly booked is even better. Her run was very similar to that of Seradess who is 1/3 of her price here.

(16) Viviane draws inside but is a big price. Her one go down the straight was a very good 2nd, splitting Argentia and Invincible Caviar, both of which were highly touted fillies. She’s jumped out very well for this fresh run and at the price I’ll be on.

(11) A Very Fine Red brings the Sydney form which reads well. She was very good two back behind Home Affairs and Paulele which is obviously A1 form, and she didn’t appear all that comfortable leading last start but still only beaten 4.3L by Paulele. Have to have her onside with that form.

Tip: (15) Spinning- $16.00/4.60 at Bet365

Also Backing: (11) A Very Fine Red- $8.50 at Bet365

Value: (16) Viviane- $34.00/10.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Spinning, 0.5 units WIN A Very Fine Red, 0.25 units E/W Viviane