Flemington Racing Tips: Tuesday, November 2nd

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 11:04am (AEDT)

We kick off Melbourne Cup day with the Maribyrnyong Plate for the 2YO’s, with eight of the runners on debut.

(4) Deep Point is from the stables of Tony and Calvin McEvoy, who have enjoyed success in this race multiple times in recent years. I’m certain they’ll have the son of Deep Field ready to run a big race here on debut at an each way price.

(9) Quinlan debuts for Gai Waiterhouse and Adrian Bott, another team who won this race in 2018. They book the in-form Brett Prebble for the ride and you always have to respect juveniles from this stable.

(1) Brereton was only beaten narrowly on debut at Caulfield in the Debutant Stakes for Peter Moody and Luke Nolen. Race experience can often come to the fore in juvenile races so he’ll be right in the mix.

(10) Water Bomber won a Moe trial in good style leading into this.

The market will likely prove the best guide here and we’ll be keeping our powder dry early.

Tip: (4) Deep Point $7.00 TopSport

Value: (9) Quinlan $13 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 11:24am (AEDT)

This really looks a race between (8) Wil John and (10) Accountability.

Wil John won four races last prep, three of which were over hurdles and culminated in the Grand National. He then had 10 weeks off, resumed over 2400m at Caulfield and beat Smokin’ Romans and Accountability. Smokin’ Romans then went onto to run 2nd beaten 0.1L in the Bendigo Cup, so the form has stood up. Wil John has three wins and a 2nd from four starts when second up, he’ll obviously relish the step up to 2800m and meets Accountability at very similar weights.

Accountability won two on the bounce in Sydney before coming to Melbourne and finishing 3rd behind Wil John. He’s going to find himself a long way back from barrier 13, unless they decide to change tactics and go forward. Waller dominated the first day of the carnival so expect this horse to be right in the finish.

(5) Dragon Storm has done nothing in his first two runs back from a spell but he does have a better third up record, and he won at this stage last prep. Include at $67.

(4) Savvy Valentino has been flying in Sydney and drops in grade here. Hard to knock.

Tip: (8) Wil John $3.75 BoomBet

Saver: (10) Accountability $4.25 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1.75 units WIN Wil John, 0.5 units WIN Accountability

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 12:04pm (AEDT)

A lot of these horses are fairly well exposed, but the least exposed is the favourite (3) Housay with just the seven career starts. He’s won three times and placed three times from those seven starts and looks to have been set for a first up tilt at this greys race on Cup day. He started favourite in this race last year when beaten 1.15L into 5th, but I think he’s probably going to be in better shape for this year’s race. He’s been tuned up with a couple of recent jumpouts at Cranbourne where he’s looked good and I’d be surprised if he wasn’t right in the finish.

The other horse coming into this first up is (4) Excelman, who has also been jumping out well at Cranbourne leading into this. He’s more of a 2000m horse so it remains to be seen if he’s sharp enough to win fresh at 1400m, but he’s certainly looked very good in his work at Cranbourne.

(1) Not To Be Mist is a former WA horse that’s had two starts in Victoria for Nick Ryan. He’s only been fair in those but he’s the type of horse that will absolutely love getting to Flemington.

Tip: (3) Housay $3.40 Ladbrokes

Saver: (4) Excelman $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Housay, 0.25 units WIN Excelman

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 12:44pm (AEDT)

(6) Skyman was outclassed by Thought Of That at Moonee Valley last start but that horse is airborne and it’s a strong form line to bring into this race. His prior form behind Mr Brightside and Floating Artist also reads very well and Chris Waller dominated day one of the carnival, so I’m confident he’ll have this horse ready to win.

(9) Groovy Kinda Love has returned in impressive form. She was unlucky not to win first up at Morningotn when held up until the 100m mark, but she atoned for that with a dominant win at Ballarat last time out. She has to step up from a fillies and mares BM64 to Listed company against the boys, but she might be good enough to do that.

(7) Lord Vladivostock comes across from South Australia and is undefeated third up from a spell.

(4) Charleise next best.

Tip: (6) Skyman $5.00 Sportsbet

Saver: (9) Groovy Kinda Love $4.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Skyman, 0.5 units WIN Groovy Kinda Love

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 1:24pm (AEDT)

He can be a hard horse to catch but (4) Blondeau looks to have found a very winnable race. He’s absolutely flying this horse. He bounced back to winning form four starts ago at Randwick and there’s a fair case to be made he should have won his next two after that as well. His racing pattern means he often needs luck, which he didn’t get on those occasions. His last start was in the Silver Eagle where he was beaten 1.2L and the form out of that race stood up in the Golden Eagle with Count De Rupee just getting chinned by I’m Thunderstruck, who won the G1 Toorak Handicap in Melbourne prior to that. Chris Waller and James McDonald put on a clinic on the first day of the carnival and they team up again here. Expecting him to be awfully hard to beat.

(6) I Am Vinnie gets my attention as well with three wins and a 3rd from three third up runs. He’s beaten just two runners home in his first two starts this prep, so he could well be cooked, but this is when he really hits form. At $41 he’s a bit of value.

(7) Pindaric steps up in grade and faces his biggest test, but he has won six of his seven career starts so it’s hard to knock him.

(9) Lackeen is potentially more of a 2000m horse but he also proved to be a bit of a cat last preparation. The European imports typically improve in their second preparation in Australia so it wouldn’t surprise me to see a big run first up from the Godolphin horse.

Tip: (4) Blondeau $4.20 TAB

Value: (6) I Am Vinnie $41 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Blondeau, 0.25 units WIN I Am Vinnie

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 1:59pm (AEDT)

(1) Profiteer comes up favourite here but I remain unconvinced about him. His stablemate Extreme Warrior gave him a cold when he flogged him in the Blue Sapphire Stakes last start, and then he failed in the Coolmore on the weekend. James McDonald goes on today which obviously catches the eye, but I’m happy to play around him as favourite.

(7) Bacchanalia was crucified first up in Sydney. Had the cursed vet check behind the barriers and then ran into traffic everywhere in the straight. Interesting to note he’s been gelded since that run back in August. I think he’s got some talent and if that gelding operation improves him, he’s going to be hard to beat.

Jye McNeil jumps off Profiteer to ride (4) Enthaar for Maher and Eustace. She was dominant in her first two career starts, before failing in the Blue Diamond as the short-priced favourite. This is her first run since then. There’s always the query as to whether the dominant two-year-olds can return as a three-year-old and be as good, so we’ll find out here.

(8) Super Thief might be the value at $9.00. He’s been very good in two starts back from a spell. They’ve only been a Swan Hill maiden and a BM64 at Sale, but he’s on an upward curve and can measure up.

Tip: (7) Bacchanalia $5.50 Bet365

Value: (8) Super Thief $8.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Bacchanalia, 0.5 units WIN Super Thief

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 3:04pm (AEDT)

To find our runner-by-runner preview and tips for the 2021 Melbourne Cup, follow this link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/2021-melbourne-cup-preview-tips/

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 4:04pm (AEDT)

Good race this.

Find it very notable that James McDonald jumps off Chris Waller’s horse April Rain to ride (11) Promise Of Success for John O’Shea. She’s won two of her three starts this preparation, running 2nd in the other. She settles at the back of the field and comes storming home with a big finish, so she’s likely to appreciate the spacious Flemington track. The main query for her will be the firm track, as she’s never won on Good ground, and at this stage of the day it could be pretty firm.

(10) April Rain showed plenty of potential back in the summer, but has failed to win in three starts since. She probably should have won first up when she drew barrier 1 and got held up for half of the straight. James McDonald rode her there and jumps off today, which is an eyebrow-raising move given she’s trained by Chris Waller.

(5) Aidensfield is your nailed on place bet of the day. She’s placed in five of her seven starts this preparation, and four straight leading into today. She’s placed in six of her seven starts at this distance and the race she comes out of is exceptionally strong. That was the Tristarc Stakes won by Colette, who then came out and won the Empire Rose Stakes on Derby Day.

(2) Rich Hips won this race last year, (12) Energy Within is racing in good form and had no luck last start, and (7) Excelida is the blowout chance in the field at $31.

Tip: (11) Promsie Of Success $3.00 BlueBet

Also Backing: (5) Aidensfield PLACE $4.80 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Promise Of Success, 1 unit PLACE Aidensfield

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 4:44pm (AEDT)

Very open race.

(9) Oenology is my best value bet of the day at $7.50, and he’s had some support this morning. This horse is just screaming out for 1800m. He charged home on debut over 1350m, did the same at his second start over 1440m, before bolting in by 3.75L at Bendigo last start over the mile. The further he gets, the better he gets, and he’ll eat up 1800m today on a big Flemington track. I’d be surprised if he didn’t feature in the finish.

(13) Station One catches the eye lining up here after a dominant debut win at Cranbourne last Friday night. It’s not often you see horses back up four days after winning, especially when it’s their first career start they’ve won. Debuting over 1600m suggests this horse needs ground so the 1800m will be no problem. Has to be included at $10.

(14) Maracana won her first two starts before working home well into 3rd at Moonee Valley last start. Fillies don’t feature much when you look back through the recent winners of this race, but she’ll be competitive.

Tip: (9) Oenology $7.50/$2.60 TAB

Also Backing: (13) Station One $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN, 2 units PLACE Oenology, 0.5 units WIN Station One

Odds Last Updated: November 2, 2021, 5:19pm (AEDT)

(6) Pandemic comes into this third up with two 2nd placings under the belt this prep. He worked home strongly first up and then ran into Lombardo last start in the Village Stakes. Damien Oliver is replaced by James McDonald, with Ollie going on the $41 stablemate.

(4) Prime Candidate is another that comes into this third up off two good runs to open the prep. He’s been racing in Sydney, with consecutive placings behind Big Parade. Better suited back on firm ground today and he’s placed in all three runs when third up in the past. Will be competitive.

(10) Curran never runs a bad race, with eight placings from 10 career starts. Won first up at The Valley and then worked home in the best final sectionals of the entire meeting behind Oxley Road last start. He’ll be back and charging home again.

Tip: (6) Pandemic $4.60 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Pandemic