Racing Tips

Grafton Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 7th

It’s day 1 of the Grafton Carnival and Billy Bestford previews the Grafton Guineas and Ramornie Handicap.

by
Billy Bestford
6 July 2021

It’s day 1 of the Grafton carnival which means we have some cracking midweek races to get stuck into. The day is highlighted by two feature races with the Grafton Guineas in Race 6, followed by the time-honoured Ramornie Handicap in Race 7.

The track is currently rated a Soft 6 with the rail true.

Billy Bestford has cast his eye across the meeting to and has found a few bets throughout the card, as well as previewing the two key races of the day.

Race 1

Winning Edge Presentations-C2 (1600m)
12:29pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Winning Edge Presentations-C2 (1600m) 12:29pm (AEDT)
1. Sokudo (9) J: Ben Thompson (60.5kg) T: L D Kelly	9.5	10	10	9.5	10.2	10
2. Divine Eleven (4) J: Michael Cahill (59kg) T: M J Dunn	2.6	2.8	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.7
3. Manseneta (8) J: Aaron Bullock (57.5kg) T: Cody Morgan
4. Schoona The Better (5) J: Luke Rolls (57kg) T: Allan Kehoe	23	21	26	26	24	23
5. Astralis (3) J: Matthew Mcguren (56.5kg) T: M J Dunn	14	13	14	13	13.2	13
6. Brazen Force (11) J: Andrew Mallyon (56.5kg) T: K A Lees	9.5	11	9.5	10	9.1	10
7. Great Marlow (10) J: Unknown (56kg) T: J D Shelton
8. Prince Arli (2) J: Andrew Gibbons (56kg) T: Ms L Sheppard	3.9	3.7	3.7	3.9	3.7	3.6
9. Lord Avatar (6) J: Ashley Morgan (55.5kg) T: Ms J Graham	16	16	20	15	15.6	17
10. Jay Curve (12) J: Ben Looker (55kg) T: Edward O'rourke	12	11	11	12	13.4	12
11. Electric Miss (7) J: Zac Lloyd (55kg) T: Ms S Pepper	16	17	17	17	18.2	18
12. Serene Beauty (1) J: Jeff Penza (55kg) T: W J Gavenlock	34	34	41	41	32	41

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

(2) Divine Eleven was a very good winner first up over 1350m and looks suited getting out to the mile here. This horse rarely puts in a poor run and has two placings from three 2nd up runs in his career. Barrier 4 is perfect and a drying Grafton track should suit him. He came from way back to reel in a handy horse in Next Dimension and while this is a slight rise in grade, this race doesn’t look extremely competitive outside the top end of the market.

(6) Brazen Force looks a danger and has always shown a bit of talent. Doesn’t win out of turn but has been performing well this prep and comes into this after a hard fought 2nd at Lismore. Should be rock hard fit today and will take some running down.

(5) Astralis isn’t the worst at around the $13 mark. While obviously the winning strike rate is some concern, she has run well in tougher races than this and could be a big improver 3rd up today.

(8) Prince Arli an impressive winner last start and looks another good chance.

Tip: (2) Divine Eleven - $3.40 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Divine Eleven

Race 2

Cpsu Nsw Wage Growth Rural-C6 (2200m)
1:04pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Cpsu Nsw Wage Growth Rural-C6 (2200m) 1:04pm (AEDT)
1. Flying Mojo (3) J: Matthew Mcguren (59kg) T: R N Godbolt	18	18	21	19	19.2	19
2. Onemore Sapphire (5) J: Aaron Bullock (59kg) T: T J Bartley	1.85	1.85	1.7	1.9	1.88	1.75
3. Senatorial (4) J: Reece Jones (57.5kg) T: A P Ball	46	61	67	51	55	61
4. Chapal (2) J: Darryl Mclellan (56kg) T: Theresa Stair	41	41	51	41	41	41
5. Guest (1) J: Stephen Traecey (56kg) T: J L Jarvis	126	151	201	151	141	151
6. Oakfield Cherokee (11) J: Ashley Morgan (56kg) T: Ms K Buchanan	5.5	5	5	5	5.1	5
7. Rider In The Snow (7) J: Andrew Mallyon (56kg) T: K A Lees	7.5	8	7.5	8	7.3	8
8. Scilago (9) J: Ms Leah Kilner (56kg) T: Leon Elliott	9	9.5	9.5	9	8.9	10
9. Tiomo (6) J: Jon Grisedale (56kg) T: Donna Grisedale	10	10	11	10	10	11
10. Wild Sheila (8) J: Andrew Gibbons (55.5kg) T: K A Lees
11. Yarrinup Flyer (10) J: Luke Rolls (55.5kg) T: J L Jarvis	91	101	201	151	141	151
12. Blinkin Snazzy (12) J: Jeff Kehoe (55kg) T: Tom Higgins	126	151	201	151	161	151

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Good Intent Hotel Mdn (1000m)
1:39pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Good Intent Hotel Mdn (1000m) 1:39pm (AEDT)
1. Al Be Purple (18) J: Unknown (59kg) T: Ms K Owen
2. Alpine Racer (14) J: Matthew Mcguren (59kg) T: W J Gavenlock	17	18	18	18	16.8	19
3. Feeling Friskee (12) J: Unknown (59kg) T: N J Osborne
4. Inari Fox (17) J: Unknown (59kg) T: S B Lee
5. Lord Bronn (13) J: Ben Looker (59kg) T: B F Cavanough
6. Schiller Bay (7) J: Ashley Morgan (59kg) T: Ms J Graham	2.8	2.8	2.5	2.8	2.65	2.8
7. Amber Deluxe (15) J: Unknown (57kg) T: B J Dodson
8. Continuum (1) J: Reece Jones (57kg) T: D L Matts	6	5.5	6	6.5	6.2	5.5
9. Face The Facts (5) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (57kg) T: T A Commerford	21	21	20	26	21.5	23
10. Illari (3) J: Christian Reith (57kg) T: S B Lee	19	21	26	21	22	21
11. Par Avion (2) J: Ms Georgina Mcdonnell (57kg) T: Terry Evans	17	20	18	17	18	19
12. Shukkas (16) J: Unknown (57kg) T: C R Manson
13. Boncassie (4) J: Raymond Spokes (55kg) T: B D Bellamy	4.8	5	4.8	4.8	4.9	5
14. I Am Spirited (9) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: N J Osborne	8	7.5	8.5	8.5	8	7.5
15. Rebel Leader (11) J: Jeff Kehoe (55kg) T: M A Ostini	151	151	201	151	141	151
16. Are We Good (6) J: Aaron Bullock (59kg) T: A P Ball	12	12	10	12	11.6	13
17. Kiani (10) J: Ms Yvette Lewis (57kg) T: Ms L Thomson	26	26	31	26	26.5	26
18. Shades Of Frisco (8) J: Jon Grisedale (57kg) T: D Simonetta	101	151	151	126	111	126

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Mark Bloomer Transport (C2) (1100m)
2:14pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Mark Bloomer Transport (C2) (1100m) 2:14pm (AEDT)
1. Phoenix River (5) J: Aaron Bullock (60.5kg) T: Fleur Blanch	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.6	3.3	3.6
2. Anubis (1) J: Ms Casey Waddell (60kg) T: Ms S Grills	15	15	15	17	13.8	14
3. Famous (10) J: Ben Looker (60kg) T: Stirling Osland	17	19	20	17	19	19
4. Luminoso (18) J: Reece Jones (58.5kg) T: A P Ball	26	21	34	26	25.5	26
5. Alpha Go (7) J: Blaike Mcdougall (57.5kg) T: A Newing	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.6
6. Canexcell (17) J: Ms Jodi Worley (57kg) T: A Parramore	23	21	21	26	24	23
7. Defactor (14) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Michael Costa
8. Morethannumberone (16) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Michael Costa
9. Potent View (6) J: Andrew Mallyon (57kg) T: K A Lees
10. Oakfield Navajo (12) J: Darryl Mclellan (56kg) T: D Lane	27	26	21	31	30	31
11. Pershing (2) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55.5kg) T: C R Manson	23	21	21	21	23.5	23
12. Nishikori (8) J: Matthew Mcguren (55kg) T: M J Dunn	7.5	7.5	7	7.5	7.1	7.5
13. Vendome (9) J: Luke Rolls (55kg) T: Matthew Mccudden	51	61	81	61	61	71
14. War Toy (3) J: Ben Thompson (55kg) T: L D Kelly	7.5	7.5	7	7.5	7.9	7.5
15. Poita (4) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: Colt Prosser	16	17	17	17	17.2	17
16. Rioli (11) J: Ms Olivia Pickering (55kg) T: Shane Everson	101	126	151	126	131	126
17. Borlotti (13) J: Raymond Spokes (55kg) T: P A Smith	81	91	101	101	99	101
18. Mr De Niro (15) J: Jeff Kehoe (55kg) T: M A Ostini

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Feed N Win Hcp (C2) (1100m)
2:49pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Feed N Win Hcp (C2) (1100m) 2:49pm (AEDT)
1. Wicked Wench (16) J: Matthew Mcguren (59.5kg) T: Adam Duggan	13	12	13	13	13	13
2. Runsis (11) J: Chris Caserta (58.5kg) T: Christopher Zintilis	13	13	14	13	14.2	14
3. Belle Of Clonmel (1) J: Andrew Gibbons (58kg) T: Jay Hopkins	15	15	15	15	14.8	15
4. Jubai Pride (7) J: Ms Stephanie Thornton (57.5kg) T: J A Gilmore	7	7.5	7	7.5	6.7	7
5. Whatyoulookingat (9) J: Raymond Spokes (57.5kg) T: J A Sprague	16	15	19	17	16.8	17
6. Girls Kick On (4) J: Darryl Mclellan (56kg) T: D Lane	18	18	19	18	17	18
7. Testa's Flower (6) J: Reece Jones (55.5kg) T: T P Croft	15	14	16	17	14.2	15
8. Mon Gypsy (2) J: Blaike Mcdougall (55kg) T: N J Osborne	8	7.5	8	7.5	7.5	7.5
9. Superstasia (8) J: Unknown (55kg) T: D Lane
10. Jazzles (17) J: Ms Georgina Mcdonnell (55kg) T: R N Godbolt	61	81	91	81	75	81
11. Lasting Kiss (5) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55kg) T: S B Lee	2.2	2.35	2.25	2.3	2.35	2.25
12. Thiwlig (18) J: Jon Grisedale (55kg) T: Ms J Hardy
13. Fairy Beast (15) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (55kg) T: Jay Bellamy	35	41	41	31	41	41
14. Kaarchi (10) J: Luke Rolls (55kg) T: D D Schmidt	91	101	101	126	131	126
15. Rockness Angel (13) J: Unknown (55kg) T: N J Osborne
16. Crackaview (14) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Samantha Mcguren
17. Savanna Jeune (3) J: Zac Lloyd (55kg) T: D D Schmidt	34	31	41	41	34	34
18. Staremm (12) J: Unknown (55kg) T: T J Vidler	126	151	201	151	161	151

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

Keen to back the progressive (11) Lasting Kiss who has a win and three 2nd from four career starts. Flew home when fresh to just miss at this track and will take plenty of improvement off that run. Banking she has more upside than most of these and only career win came when 2nd up last prep.

Think (3) Belle Of Clonmel will run well today now 2nd up after a solid fresh performance on a very wet Gosford track. Looks much more suited on a dryer track today and only two career wins have come over this trip.

(6) Girls Kick On starts double figures here today after starting a strong favourite in her last two runs. Has run well in some decent races and I think she can be a big improver today.

Tip: (11) Lasting Kiss - $2.35 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Lasting Kiss

Race 6

Tursa Grafton Guineas (1600m)
3:24pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Tursa Grafton Guineas (1600m) 3:24pm (AEDT)
1. Acrophobic (4) J: Christian Reith (61kg) T: J A O'shea	7.5	7.5	7	8	7.2	7
2. Rogue Rocker (8) J: Michael Cahill (61kg) T: J C Smerdon
3. Vigorous Flow (2) J: Koby Jennings (59kg) T: P & P Snowden	12	11	14	12	11.2	11
4. Oakfield Prince (16) J: Darryl Mclellan (56.5kg) T: D Lane
5. Beckford (6) J: Reece Jones (56kg) T: Troy O'neile	21	19	26	21	21.5	19
6. Swanston (10) J: Ms Leah Kilner (55.5kg) T: G C Kilner	19	19	20	21	20	19
7. Tamilaide (13) J: Ben Thompson (55.5kg) T: L D Kelly	3	3	2.9	2.9	3.15	3
8. Too Good To Be Tru (3) J: Andrew Gibbons (55.5kg) T: D Lane	12	12	13	11	10.2	11
9. Oakfield Arrow (5) J: Ms Alysha Collett (55kg) T: Ms K Buchanan	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.2	5.5
10. Remus (7) J: Shaun Guymer (55kg) T: J M Austin	5.5	5.5	4.8	5.5	5.4	5
11. Dawn Flight (9) J: Ms Jess Taylor (55kg) T: J M Austin
12. Just A Brother (17) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (55kg) T: T P Croft	46	51	61	51	49	51
13. Thailand (12) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: A J Denham	27	26	34	31	30	31
14. The Catch (11) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (55kg) T: Michael Costa
15. Full Press (15) J: Matthew Bennett (55kg) T: B J Dodson	151	201	301	151	221	201
16. Previso (14) J: Ms Georgina Mcdonnell (55kg) T: I P Cook	61	67	81	71	67	71
17. Four Egos (1) J: Unknown (55kg) T: M R Stitt

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

The first feature race of the day sees a high quality field do battle in the Grafton Guineas. It’s a strong field of 3yo’s who are in form and many differing form lines to look into.

I’ve got a bit of time for the QLD-trained (7) Tamilaide who has been airborne this prep and looks a promising type for Les Kelly. Hasn’t had much luck in his last couple but has hit the line strongly. Providing he can find a back to follow from the wide draw he will be going very close.

(10) Remus is another lightly-raced 3yo who looks to have a future. Has strung together two straight wins since a debut 3rd and looks to be progressing through the grades nicely. Still has a lot to learn and will only keep improving.

(6) Swantson is a track/trip specialist and will go forward and give a strong kick as he always does. Was way too good over 1400m last start and he now gets out to his most favoured distance. If the track is favouring those on pace he will be a very big chance.

(1) Acrophobic is the class runner of the field and has been close to breaking through this prep in some much stronger metro races. Will enjoy getting back to this grade but winning strike rate is some concern.

Tip: (7) Tamilaide - $3.80 at Bet365

Also Backing: (10) Remus - $5.60 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN Tamilaide, 1 unit WIN Remus

Race 7

Grafton Services Club Ramornie (1200m)
3:59pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Grafton Services Club Ramornie (1200m) 3:59pm (AEDT)
1. Usmanov (11) J: Andrew Mallyon (59kg) T: A J & T Edmonds	20	26	20	21	23.5	19
2. Tactical Advantage (14) J: Andrew Gibbons (58.5kg) T: K A Lees
3. Outback Barbie (13) J: Ms Stephanie Thornton (58kg) T: T J Gollan	17	15	17	16	17	16
4. Snitz (18) J: Matthew Mcguren (56.5kg) T: M J Dunn	51	51	67	51	53	61
5. Southern Lad (4) J: Christian Reith (55kg) T: J A O'shea	6	6	6	6	5.2	6
6. Boomtown Lass (5) J: Jake Bayliss (54kg) T: Chris Anderson	17	15	16	17	15.6	15
7. Blazing Miss (3) J: Michael Cahill (54kg) T: Mark Newnham	14	14	15	13	12.8	14
8. Axe (20) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Michael Costa
9. Phobetor (10) J: Jag Guthmann-Chester (54kg) T: Michael Costa	3.4	3.5	3.3	3.3	3.5	3.5
10. Poetic Charmer (12) J: Blaike Mcdougall (54kg) T: P & P Snowden	9.5	10	9	10	9.5	10
11. Garibaldi (19) J: Ben Thompson (54kg) T: T J Gollan	7	6.5	6.5	7	6.9	6.5
12. Fender (1) J: Ben Looker (54kg) T: B F Cavanough	8.5	8	8	9	8.5	7.5
13. Phantom Falcon (6) J: Matthew Bennett (54kg) T: Kacy Fogden	46	41	51	51	45	41
14. Peppi La Few (17) J: Zac Lloyd (54kg) T: A J & T Edmonds
15. Beaufort Park (16) J: Ms Alysha Collett (54kg) T: L D Kelly	31	34	31	26	34	26
16. Oakfield Twilight (15) J: Darryl Mclellan (54kg) T: D Lane	151	201	201	201	261	251
17. Exclusive (7) J: Kirk Matheson (54kg) T: S J Bennett	101	126	201	126	121	151
18. Hellenism (8) J: Ms Rachael Murray (54kg) T: Aiden St Vincent	41	51	61	51	47	51
19. Zac Attack (2) J: Zac Lloyd (54kg) T: Edward O'rourke
20. Ice In Vancouver (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Cody Morgan

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

Unsurprisingly the Ramornie is a strong and very open race yet again with plenty of speed engaged. Don’t mind the chances of a number of horses here and will be playing a couple to try get a result.

(9) Phobetor comes into this after a very impressive first up win which followed an equally good trial and looks to have come back in flying form. Expecting a very similar run as he had last start and so long as he gets a trail into the straight, should be good enough to round them up down the outside.

(5) Southern Lad should get all the favours from barrier 4 and he showed signs last start that he can still match it with the top liners. He was a very good run in the Hinkler behind Superium, coming from a long way back. He beat home Garibaldi there who is half his price today.

(7) Blazing Miss was only narrowly beaten last start when run down late by some handy horses at Ipswich. Looks one of the likely front runners and will give a strong sight.

(3) Outback Barbie has been mixing her form recently but we all know her best would see her go close today. Might need a slice of luck from out wide but it wouldn’t shock to see her pop up and win here.

Tip: (9) Phobetor - $4.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (5) Southern Lad - $9.00 at TopSport

Value: (7) Blazing Miss - $15 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN Phobetor, 1 unit WIN Southern Lad, 0.5 unit WIN Blazing Miss

Race 8

Grafton Taxis 66423622 (Bm58) (1400m)
4:34pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Grafton Taxis 66423622 (Bm58) (1400m) 4:34pm (AEDT)
1. Buckle Up Baby (18) J: Unknown (61.5kg) T: Lauren Abbott
2. Condover Hall (7) J: Reece Jones (61kg) T: R N Godbolt	7.5	7	7	7.5	8.1	7
3. Storm Attack (16) J: Michael Cahill (61kg) T: M J Dunn
4. A Million Dreams (6) J: Jasper Franklin (60.5kg) T: B J Dodson	11	9.5	11	9.5	10.6	11
5. Pipe Dreams (13) J: Ms Courtney Bellamy (60.5kg) T: G L Payne	23	21	31	26	25.5	21
6. Unleash The Red (2) J: Noriyuki Masuda (60.5kg) T: Ethan Ensby	23	21	26	26	24.5	26
7. Delayed Response (9) J: Aaron Bullock (59kg) T: Denim Wynen	34	34	34	31	31	41
8. Palaszczuk (5) J: Andrew Mallyon (58kg) T: Michael Costa	2.7	2.8	2.6	2.7	2.6	2.6
9. Volfoni (15) J: Ms Leah Kilner (58kg) T: G C Kilner	8.5	9	9	9	8.6	8.5
10. Gin Runner (14) J: Luke Rolls (57kg) T: Matthew Mccudden	21	21	26	21	22	23
11. La Cronica (3) J: Ben Looker (57kg) T: Shannon Manwarring
12. Prince Of Troy (12) J: Kirk Matheson (57kg) T: Colt Prosser
13. Sailing (4) J: Ben Thompson (56.5kg) T: S B Lee	4.4	4.6	4.4	4.4	4.35	4.6
14. Alt Eff Four (17) J: Unknown (55kg) T: S B Lee
15. Zioptimus (11) J: Jake Bayliss (56kg) T: Allan Kehoe	19	21	21	21	22.5	23
16. Solskjaer (8) J: Unknown (56kg) T: Brad Munro
17. Old Timing Man (10) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: Shane Everson	31	34	51	41	36	41
18. Splash Of Lime (1) J: Unknown (55kg) T: Tom Higgins	51	67	71	71	65	71

Odds Last Updated: July 7, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

Billy Bestford

Billy has been an avid racing fan ever since he and a few mates started a punters club once they turned 18. Following the initial punters clubs, he was properly hooked after landing a nice collect on Admire Rakti in the 2014 Caulfield Cup and has had a soft spot for Japanese horses ever since. Is a massive fan of 'blinkers first time' and has been known to enjoy a 'Hail Mary' multi. Loves punting across metro Sydney and Melbourne every Saturday but isn't scared to venture West late in the day to find a Pikey special.