Racing Tips

Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 10th

Wednesday nights are reserved for Hong Kong horse racing at Happy Valley, and Tim Geers is keen to bet into four races on tonight’s card.

by
Tim Geers
9 March 2021

Wednesday nights are reserved for Hong Kong horse racing at Happy Valley, and we have another nine races to sink our teeth into tonight!

Tonight’s meeting is on the B course and the first is set to jump at 6.45pm local time (9.45pm AEDT).

Tim Geers is keen to bet into four races on the card, those being Race 3, Race 5, Race 7 and Race 9.

Find his preview, tips, analysis and betting strategy below!

Best Bet: Race 5 – (1) Stock Legend

Race 1

Po Loi Hcp (C4) (1650m)
9:45pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Po Loi Hcp (C4) (1650m) 9:45pm (AEDT)
1. Charge On (8) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: D J Hall	4.4	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.3
2. Regency Master (6) J: M F Poon (59.5kg) T: C S Shum	15	14	13	13	13.6
3. More Than Enough (9) J: N Callan (57.5kg) T: A S Cruz	5.5	5	5	5	5
4. Rainbow Light (4) J: K Teetan (55.5kg) T: D Whyte	8.5	9	10	10	8.8
5. Cigary (2) J: Alex Lai (54.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	91	91	101	101	87
6. Super Hong Kong (7) J: R Maia (54.5kg) T: A T Millard	61	51	51	51	49
7. Thunder Stomp (5) J: J Moreira (53.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	2.8	2.8	2.9	2.9	2.7
8. Amazing Luck (3) J: M Chadwick (52.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan	23	21	21	21	20.5
9. Stay Chill (1) J: C Y Ho (52.5kg) T: W Y So	4.8	4.8	5	5	4.75

Odds Last Updated: March 10, 2021, 9:46pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Po Loi Hcp (C4) (1650m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Po Loi Hcp (C4) (1650m) 10:15pm (AEDT)
1. Tangmere (2) J: B Shinn (60.5kg) T: C Fownes	7.5	7	7.5	7	7
2. Dream Warriors (9) J: K Teetan (58.5kg) T: A S Cruz	8	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.4
3. All You Know (1) J: K C Leung (57.5kg) T: Richard Gibson	10	9.5	9	9	9.5
4. Happy Win Win (5) J: A Hamelin (56.5kg) T: C H Yip	15	14	14	14	14.4
5. Circuit Hero (8) J: N Callan (56kg) T: P Yiu	91	91	101	101	91
6. Triumphant Horse (6) J: R Maia (56kg) T: K H Ting
7. Red Brick Fighter (3) J: M F Poon (55kg) T: D J Hall	4.6	4.8	4.4	4.4	4.7
8. Copartner Era (4) J: C Y Ho (53kg) T: W Y So	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.65
9. Shanghai Grace (7) J: J Moreira (52kg) T: Y S Tsui	2.9	3	3.1	3.1	3

Odds Last Updated: March 10, 2021, 10:16pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Wuhu Hcp (C5) (1200m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Wuhu Hcp (C5) (1200m) 10:45pm (AEDT)
1. Jade Theatre (9) J: N Callan (60.5kg) T: K L Man	11	10	10	10	10
2. Smart Charade (6) J: K Teetan (60.5kg) T: W Y So	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.5
3. After Me (2) J: Alex Lai (60kg) T: D Ferraris	12	12	14	14	12
4. Ka Fortune (1) J: K C Leung (60kg) T: P D O'sullivan	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
5. Universal Crown (4) J: M L Yeung (60kg) T: D Whyte	15	16	17	17	15.2
6. Fantastic Fabio (8) J: Z Purton (59kg) T: C H Yip	8	7.5	6.5	6.5	7.5
7. Prawn Yeah Yeah (11) J: C Y Ho (58kg) T: Richard Gibson	51	51	34	41	51
8. Shanghai Power (5) J: M F Poon (56kg) T: Y S Tsui	9.5	9	9	9	8.9
9. Vega Rhythm (10) J: M Chadwick (55kg) T: L Ho	46	31	41	41	40
10. Tigerlad (12) J: A Hamelin (54.5kg) T: A T Millard	20	20	18	18	19.8
11. Lucky Victor (3) J: H N Wong (53kg) T: K H Ting	35	34	41	34	35
12. Wonder Brahma (7) J: J Moreira (53kg) T: C Fownes	4.8	4.8	5	5	4.8

Odds Last Updated: March 10, 2021, 10:46pm (AEDT)

Think it’s worth having something (4) Ka Fortune here at $5.50. He could either firm or completely blow out in betting, not sure which way it will go. He’s first up for a new stable tonight and has had two trials leading in. He ran second last in the first of those and last in the most recent one. However, he wasn’t put under any pressure at all and was only 3L off the winner in a small field. I actually thought he moved quite well. He ran 2^nd at Sha Tin first up last prep, and then 2^nd again second up here at The Valley. If he has improved at all for the new trainer, he should be very competitive, and barrier 1 is a big advantage over the 1200m here.

Tip: (4) Ka Fortune $5.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ka Fortune

Race 4

Gillies Hcp (C4) (1200m)
11:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Gillies Hcp (C4) (1200m) 11:15pm (AEDT)
1. Colonel (12) J: A K Chan (60.5kg) T: P Yiu	61	51	41	41	55
2. Prance Dragon (8) J: C Y Ho (59kg) T: T P Yung	9	8.5	8	8	8.5
3. Seven Heavens (5) J: B Shinn (59kg) T: C Fownes	3.6	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.7
4. Goodmanship (7) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: D Whyte	8	8	8	8	7.8
5. Lucky Treasure (10) J: N Callan (56.5kg) T: K H Ting	61	51	41	41	49
6. Travel Glory (3) J: A Hamelin (56.5kg) T: C W Chang	11	13	16	16	13
7. Oriental Amigo (11) J: R Maia (56kg) T: Y S Tsui	61	61	51	51	61
8. Star Of Wuyi (4) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: K W Lui	3.1	3.3	3.3	3.3	3.2
9. Hot Chili Pepper (9) J: M Chadwick (54kg) T: C S Shum	12	12	11	11	11.6
10. Hero Star (1) J: K C Leung (52.5kg) T: K L Man	4.8	4.8	5	5	4.55
11. Winner's Heart (6) J: M F Poon (52kg) T: F C Lor	81	81	81	81	77
12. Kelmimi Wins (2) J: Alex Lai (51.5kg) T: D Ferraris	151	151	201	201	141

Odds Last Updated: March 10, 2021, 11:16pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Gillies Hcp (C4) (1200m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Gillies Hcp (C4) (1200m) 11:45pm (AEDT)
1. Stock Legend (2) J: J Moreira (60.5kg) T: K W Lui	2.05	2.15	2.1	2.1	2.05
2. Whiskey Neat (3) J: A K Chan (59kg) T: C Fownes	8.5	8.5	8	8	8.4
3. Everyone's Victory (6) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: F C Lor	7	8	8.5	8.5	7.8
4. Exuberant (4) J: A Hamelin (56.5kg) T: C S Shum	71	71	71	71	69
5. Lotus Favorites (11) J: M F Poon (56.5kg) T: D J Hall	201	201	201	201	181
6. Romantic Trove (10) J: Z Purton (56.5kg) T: W Y So	3.2	3.2	3.3	3.3	3.15
7. Sam's Love (5) J: N Callan (56kg) T: C H Yip	18	18	19	19	18.2
8. Lucky Maryknoll (1) J: B Shinn (55kg) T: D A Hayes	71	71	71	71	69
9. Happily Friends (8) J: C Y Ho (53.5kg) T: K H Ting	17	16	15	15	16
10. Joyful Moments (12) J: H N Wong (52kg) T: C W Chang	251	201	201	201	201
11. Vector (9) J: M L Yeung (52kg) T: A S Cruz	41	41	51	51	40
12. Carry The Diamond (7) J: M Chadwick (51.5kg) T: Richard Gibson	17	17	16	16	16.6

Odds Last Updated: March 10, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Happy to forgive (1) Stock Legend for last start and I’ll be buttering up again on him tonight. He drew barrier 12 last time out and had to do plenty of work to get outside the leader. That work took away from his big finish and he was only plain in the straight. He draws much better in barrier 2 tonight so he won’t have to work and he probably doesn’t have to lead either. Moreira sticks with him and he looks very hard to beat.

Tip: (1) Stock Legend $2.10 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Stock Legend

Race 6

Chatham Hcp (C4) (1000m)
12:15am (AEDT)

Race 6 Chatham Hcp (C4) (1000m) 12:15am (AEDT)
1. Jolly Good Heart (5) J: A K Chan (60.5kg) T: T P Yung	8	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.3
2. Telecom Puma (11) J: J Moreira (59.5kg) T: C Fownes	4.8	4.8	4.2	4.2	4.6
3. Victory In Hand (9) J: C Y Ho (58.5kg) T: K W Lui	9	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.2
4. Joyful Win (12) J: K C Leung (58kg) T: P Yiu	9	9	8.5	8.5	8.6
5. Flaming Passion (10) J: K Teetan (57kg) T: F C Lor	3.5	4	3.9	4	3.8
6. Legend Goes (3) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: P D O'sullivan	71	71	67	71	69
7. Magic Bonus (4) J: M L Yeung (57kg) T: D A Hayes	101	126	101	101	101
8. Spicy So Good (8) J: Z Purton (57kg) T: C S Shum	8.5	8	7.5	6.5	7.6
9. Pichu (7) J: N Callan (56kg) T: K H Ting	91	101	101	101	95
10. U W Brother (2) J: A Hamelin (54kg) T: Y S Tsui	13	13	13	13	12.4
11. Travel Datuk (6) J: M F Poon (53.5kg) T: Richard Gibson	7.5	7	7.5	7.5	6.8
12. Valiant Elegance (1) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: D Whyte	13	12	10	10	11.2

Odds Last Updated: March 11, 2021, 10:02am (AEDT)

Race 7

Bulkeley Hcp (C3) (1800m)
12:45am (AEDT)

Race 7 Bulkeley Hcp (C3) (1800m) 12:45am (AEDT)
1. Alpha Hedge (1) J: A Hamelin (60.5kg) T: K W Lui	31	31	31	31	31
2. Golden Spectrum (6) J: R Maia (60kg) T: A S Cruz	6.5	6	6.5	6.5	6.1
3. Namjong Plus (10) J: M F Poon (59kg) T: Y S Tsui	23	21	26	26	22.5
4. World Famous (3) J: K C Leung (57.5kg) T: P Yiu	4.8	5	5	5	4.95
5. Turin Redstar (9) J: N Callan (57kg) T: C H Yip	31	31	31	31	31
6. Helene Wisdom Star (11) J: Z Purton (56.5kg) T: A S Cruz	3.8	3.7	3.9	3.9	3.75
7. Casimiro (8) J: M Chadwick (55kg) T: P D O'sullivan	19	19	20	20	19
8. Murray's Partners (5) J: A K Chan (54.5kg) T: C H Yip	21	21	21	21	21
9. Clement Legend (2) J: C Y Ho (53.5kg) T: C S Shum	14	13	13	13	13
10. Fast Pace (4) J: J Moreira (52.5kg) T: C Fownes	3.9	4	3.7	3.7	3.9
11. Xiang Bai Qi (7) J: K Teetan (52.5kg) T: D Ferraris	10	11	9.5	9.5	10.8

Odds Last Updated: March 11, 2021, 10:02am (AEDT)

Think Moreira has another good chance here, teaming up with Casper Fownes. These two strike at close to 30%. (10) Fast Pace just continues to run well, placing in his past four starts, and he’s been no further than a long neck off the winner in any of those. He now steps up from Class 4 to Class 3 and drops 8kg in the weights as a result of that class rise. Draws well in barrier 4 and with even luck he should be right in the finish.

Tip: (10) Fast Pace $4.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fast Pace

Race 8

Baker Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:15am (AEDT)

Race 8 Baker Hcp (C3) (1200m) 1:15am (AEDT)
1. Stanley Park (7) J: B Shinn (60.5kg) T: D Ferraris	16	15	16	16	15.4
2. Wind N Grass (9) J: K Teetan (60.5kg) T: J J Size	6.5	7.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
3. California Concord (8) J: N Callan (59.5kg) T: A S Cruz	51	51	61	61	51
4. Capital Star (6) J: J Moreira (59kg) T: C Fownes	1.6	1.55	1.65	1.65	1.56
5. Beauty Amigo (1) J: M F Poon (57.5kg) T: D A Hayes	35	41	41	41	39
6. Kinda Cool (10) J: Z Purton (57.5kg) T: F C Lor	7	8.5	8	8	7.9
7. Alcari (12) J: R Maia (56kg) T: P Yiu	21	21	21	21	20.5
8. Meridian Genius (4) J: K C Leung (55.5kg) T: A T Millard	35	41	41	41	39
9. First Responder (2) J: A Hamelin (52.5kg) T: D Whyte	12	12	14	14	11.8
10. What A Legend (5) J: C Y Ho (52.5kg) T: K H Ting	18	20	19	19	18.6
11. Super Power Man (3) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: K L Man	91	101	91	91	91
12. Starz Hero (11) J: H T Mo (51.5kg) T: Y S Tsui	31	34	34	34	33

Odds Last Updated: March 11, 2021, 10:02am (AEDT)

Race 9

Baker Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:50am (AEDT)

Race 9 Baker Hcp (C3) (1200m) 1:50am (AEDT)
1. Ka Ying Master (2) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: T P Yung	2.5	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.6
2. Young Legend (3) J: H N Wong (60kg) T: C S Shum	31	31	31	31	31
3. Equaletta Blitz (11) J: K C Leung (58.5kg) T: K H Ting	15	15	14	14	15
4. Utopia Life (7) J: A K Chan (57kg) T: K L Man	71	67	71	71	69
5. Circuit Seven (4) J: R Maia (55kg) T: A S Cruz	61	61	67	67	61
6. High Rise Soldier (6) J: C Y Ho (55kg) T: K W Lui	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
7. Strive For Glory (1) J: A Hamelin (55kg) T: F C Lor	8	8	8	8	8
8. Shouson (8) J: M F Poon (53.5kg) T: A T Millard	9.5	8.5	9	9	8.9
9. Aurora Pegasus (9) J: J Moreira (53kg) T: C Fownes	4.5	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4
10. Harrier Jet (10) J: M L Yeung (52kg) T: P D O'sullivan	46	51	41	41	45
11. Hercules (12) J: M Chadwick (52kg) T: C H Yip	27	31	31	31	30
12. Nordic Warrior (5) J: K Teetan (51.5kg) T: Richard Gibson	9	8.5	9	9	8.6

Odds Last Updated: March 11, 2021, 10:02am (AEDT)

Really nice race to finish things off and I think it comes down to three main chances.

(1) Ka Ying Master won over track and distance two starts ago, then went down by a neck last start carrying a similar weight. He started from barrier 2 that night and gets the identical draw tonight, so with Purton sticking, there is no reason he shouldn’t be right in the thick of things again.

(9) Aurora Pegasus was first up from a 10-week break last start. He got back in the field and finished off well, which was encouraging because his form had tapered off. When he’s right, he’s very good and that run showed that he might be coming back into form. Moreira sticks with him, he’s lightly weighted and despite having a tricky draw, I expect him to go close.

The other horse is right at the bottom of the weights, (12) Nordic Warrior. He won over track and distance in Class 4 last start and then stepped up to Class 3 last start. His run was very good. He settled back in the field, ran into traffic and then finished off strongly into 4^th. That was on the same night as Aurora Pegasus and he finished off in a much better final 400m than Aurora Pegasus the race earlier, despite only going fractionally slower early. Stays with 51.5kg, draws well in barrier 5 and also gets a positive jockey change with Karis Teetan going on. $8.00 is a good price.

I’ll be backing Ka Ying Master and Nordic Warrior, with a saver on Aurora Pegasus (see betting strategy below).

Tip: (1) Ka Ying Master $2.80 Bet365

Also Backing: (12) Nordic Warrior $8.00 Sportsbet

Saver: (9) Aurora Pegasus $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Ka Ying Master, 0.75 units WIN Nordic Warrior, 0.5 units WIN Aurora Pegasus

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.