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Happy Valley Racing Tips: Wednesday, October 14th

Eight races under lights at Happy Valley in Hong Kong on Wednesday night and Tim Geers has previewed the card with his best bets right here.

Happy Valley Racing Tips

Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, October 14th.

 

Eight races under lights at Happy Valley in Hong Kong on Wednesday night. Tim Geers has previewed the card and highlighted the races he’s keen to bet in! Find his preview and tips below.

 

Best Bet: Race 4 – (4) Farm Bumper E/W

Best Value: Race 6 – (2) Prime Minister

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Race 1

Wan Chai Gap Hcp (C5) (1200m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Wan Chai Gap Hcp (C5) (1200m)
10:15pm (AEDT)

1. Regency Gem (3) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: W Y So
2. Green Envy (12) J: A Hamelin (59kg) T: C Fownes
3. Ka Ying Brilliance (11) J: C Schofield (58.5kg) T: T P Yung
4. Fox Cheunger (7) J: J Moreira (58kg) T: K W Lui
5. Red Zoffany (4) J: A K Chan (58kg) T: K L Man
6. Fantastic Fabio (5) J: K C Leung (57.5kg) T: C H Yip
7. The One (9) J: K Teetan (57kg) T: Y S Tsui
8. Wonder Brahma (8) J: M F Poon (57kg) T: D J Hall
9. Kwai Chung Elite (10) J: A Badel (56kg) T: Richard Gibson
10. Rochford (2) J: C Wong (55kg) T: L Ho
11. Tigerlad (6) J: M Chadwick (51.5kg) T: A T Millard
12. Target Finder (1) J: H T Mo (51.5kg) T: C W Chang

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

(1) Regency Gem looks a bet here at each way odds. He’s first up for the new season and trainer Chris So has started the season in great form. This horse drops in Class for his first up run tonight and Zac Purton goes straight on. Purton on a class-dropper is always a good sign and it looks to me like they’ve set this horse for this race. Inside barrier draws are a big plus over the 1200m on the B-course so barrier 3 looks to be an ideal draw.

Top pick: (1) Regency Gem

Tip: Betting strategy: 0.5u win, 1u place Regency Gem @ $6.00/$2.20

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Race 2

Victoria Gap Hcp (C4) (1650m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Victoria Gap Hcp (C4) (1650m)
10:45pm (AEDT)

1. Villa Fionn (8) J: A Hamelin (60.5kg) T: P Yiu
2. Sumstreetsumwhere (4) J: Jerry Chau (60kg) T: D J Hall
3. Thunder Stomp (6) J: C Wong (57kg) T: Y S Tsui
4. Party Genius (9) J: K Teetan (56.5kg) T: D Whyte
5. King Dragon (5) J: Z Purton (55.5kg) T: K L Man
6. Royal Racer (11) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: C Fownes
7. This Is Charisma (2) J: C Y Ho (54.5kg) T: K W Lui
8. Wood On Fire (7) J: K C Leung (54.5kg) T: L Ho
9. California Legend (1) J: M Chadwick (54kg) T: A S Cruz
10. Daily Charm (3) J: A Badel (53.5kg) T: C S Shum
11. Victorious Leader (10) J: M F Poon (53kg) T: C H Yip
12. Humble Steed (12) J: H T Mo (52kg) T: T P Yung

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

This looks another nice chance for Purton with (5) King Dragon. He’s yet to win from 11 starts but he’s knocking on the door and this looks a very good race for him. He ran the fastest final 400m first up when beaten about a length into 3rd and was the only horse to break 23 seconds in doing so. He gets Purton on second up tonight, draws well in barrier 5 and has no excuses not to be right in the finish.

(9) California Legend draws the plum gate in barrier 1 for his first run of the new season. That should be a big advantage for him.

(6) Royal Racer is in great form and comes off a last-start win over the track and distance. Moreira gets back on and the stable is running hot. Fownes and Moreira have combined for eight wins from 18 starters this season. The negative is barrier 11 though, with only one of the past 56 runners winning from this gate over the track and distance.

(1) Villa Fionn could be an improver at huge odds.

Top pick: (5) King Dragon

Betting strategy: 1.5u win King Dragon @ $2.80

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Race 3

Mount Kellett Hcp (C4) (1200m)
12:15am (AEDT)

Race 3

Mount Kellett Hcp (C4) (1200m)
12:15am (AEDT)

1. Glenealy Generals (10) J: Z Purton (59.5kg) T: C H Yip
2. Ambitious Heart (6) J: N Callan (58kg) T: D Ferraris
3. Bullish Brother (3) J: Jerry Chau (58kg) T: A S Cruz
4. Whiskey Neat (8) J: J Moreira (57.5kg) T: C Fownes
5. Fearless Fire (2) J: A K Chan (57kg) T: D A Hayes
6. Carry The Diamond (5) J: C Schofield (56.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
7. Happily Friends (7) J: K C Leung (56kg) T: K H Ting
8. Supreme Plus (12) J: K Teetan (55kg) T: F C Lor
9. Destine Jewellery (4) J: A Badel (54kg) T: J J Size
10. Shining On (1) J: C Y Ho (54kg) T: K W Lui
11. Happy Tango (11) J: A Hamelin (53.5kg) T: D Whyte
12. Regency Poet (9) J: M Chadwick (53.5kg) T: K L Man
13. Hercules (3) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: C H Yip
14. Won Ball (8) J: M F Poon (59.5kg) T: D J Hall
15. Sun Sun Fa Fa (5) J: A Badel (57.5kg) T: W Y So
16. Telecom Rocket (2) J: C Y Ho (57.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
17. Oriental Elite (9) J: N Callan (57kg) T: P D O'sullivan
18. Gallant Crown (10) J: A Hamelin (56.5kg) T: A T Millard
19. Sprint Forward (6) J: Jerry Chau (56.5kg) T: D A Hayes
20. Here Comes Ted (11) J: K Teetan (56kg) T: D Ferraris
21. Smiling Face (7) J: V Borges (55.5kg) T: D Whyte
22. Viva Chef (4) J: K C Leung (55kg) T: L Ho
23. Noble Man (1) J: J Moreira (54.5kg) T: J J Size
24. Winning Ways (12) J: M Chadwick (54kg) T: C S Shum

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

No Bet

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Race 4

Mount Gough Hcp (C4) (1000m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Mount Gough Hcp (C4) (1000m)
11:45pm (AEDT)

1. Simply Fluke (1) J: Jerry Chau (60.5kg) T: D Whyte
2. Momentum Galaxy (10) J: K C Leung (60kg) T: K H Ting
3. Day Day Rich (3) J: H T Mo (59kg) T: T P Yung
4. Farm Bumper (9) J: C Schofield (57kg) T: K L Man
5. Happy Jai Jai (11) J: B Shinn (57kg) T: D A Hayes
6. Management Supreme (6) J: C Y Ho (57kg) T: K W Lui
7. Winner's Heart (7) J: N Callan (56kg) T: F C Lor
8. Wild West Wing (12) J: J Moreira (55kg) T: J J Size
9. Viva Mama (2) J: A K Chan (54.5kg) T: L Ho
10. Wins All (8) J: K Teetan (53.5kg) T: W Y So
11. Destin (4) J: C Wong (52.5kg) T: P D O'sullivan
12. Travel Datuk (5) J: A Badel (52.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
13. Winner's Heart (7) J: N Callan (56kg) T: F C Lor
14. Winner's Heart (7) J: N Callan (56kg) T: F C Lor

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

(4) Farm Bumper was a good winner last start and he can win again tonight. He rises 3kg in the weights tonight as a result of that win but I don’t think anything that finished behind him can turn the tables. He ran the fastest final 400m and 800m of the race, and his record at the track and distance now reads four starts for two wins and two 2nds. With $5.50/$2.20 on offer, I think he’s the bet of the night on an each way basis.

(10) Wins All was a dominant winner in easier class first up over the track and distance. The time he recorded was far inferior to that of Farm Bumper so he will need to improve but he gets in light and looks to have come back a better horse. The stable is in good form too.

Top pick: (4) Farm Bumper

Betting strategy: 2u win, 3u place Farm Bumper @ $5.50/$2.20

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Race 5

Lung Fu Shan Hcp (C3) (1200m)
12:45am (AEDT)

Race 5

Lung Fu Shan Hcp (C3) (1200m)
12:45am (AEDT)

1. Loving A Boom (1) J: Z Purton (60.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
2. Prime Minister (10) J: A Badel (58kg) T: P Yiu
3. Falcon Turbo (7) J: K C Leung (57kg) T: A T Millard
4. Green Reign (2) J: J Moreira (56kg) T: C Fownes
5. Stanley Park (3) J: N Callan (56kg) T: D Ferraris
6. Chater Pins (11) J: B Shinn (55.5kg) T: D A Hayes
7. Hello Beauty (8) J: M Chadwick (54.5kg) T: K L Man
8. The Runner (9) J: C Y Ho (54.5kg) T: F C Lor
9. Eight Trigrams (5) J: H N Wong (54kg) T: D J Hall
10. Harmony N Home (6) J: K Teetan (54kg) T: C S Shum
11. Xponential (12) J: A Hamelin (53kg) T: D Whyte
12. Le Terroir (4) J: M F Poon (52.5kg) T: K W Lui

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

Good little race this. (1) Hercules was dominant first up over this track and distance, scooting away to win by 2.8L. He cops a hike in the weights tonight but if he is able to reproduce that level of performance, he will be the one to beat again with Purton on from the good draw.

(8) Here Comes Ted looks the danger and value at $7.00. He draws wide in barrier 11 but he’s racing in career best form, with a win and two placings from his past three starts. He goes well at the track and distance so he’ll be the one launching home late.

(11) Noble Man draws very well in barrier 1 but his finishing sectionals last start weren’t all that great and he still needs to improve. Hercules on top – his time last start makes him the horse to beat – but something also on Here Comes Ted.

Top pick: (1) Hercules

Betting strategy: 1.5u win Hercules @ $2.50, 0.5u win Here Comes Ted @ $7.00

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Race 6

Mount Davis Hcp (C3) (1800m)
1:15am (AEDT)

Race 6

Mount Davis Hcp (C3) (1800m)
1:15am (AEDT)

1. Delightful Laos (1) J: K Teetan (60.5kg) T: A S Cruz
2. Tashidelek (10) J: A Badel (59kg) T: D Whyte
3. Namjong Plus (11) J: Z Purton (58.5kg) T: Y S Tsui
4. Flash Famous (5) J: C Schofield (57kg) T: F C Lor
5. Xanthus (8) J: B Shinn (56.5kg) T: Richard Gibson
6. Xiang Bai Qi (3) J: N Callan (56.5kg) T: D Ferraris
7. Wealthy Delight (2) J: M Chadwick (56kg) T: J J Size
8. Clement Legend (4) J: V Borges (55kg) T: C S Shum
9. Stimulation (7) J: C Y Ho (55kg) T: A S Cruz
10. Above (12) J: A Hamelin (54.5kg) T: A T Millard
11. Tangmere (9) J: J Moreira (54.5kg) T: C Fownes
12. Red Elysees (6) J: K C Leung (53.5kg) T: K L Man

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

This is a really terrific race, especially to bet into, but a competitive one at that. I was originally keen on finding a way to get (1) Loving A Boom beat as favourite, but while there’s a few at good odds I’ll also be backing, I’ve landed with him on top. He had no luck at all first up when he took an inside run and then ran up backsides in the straight, eventually getting out to run 4th. That was over 1000m here at The Valley and the step up to 1200m tonight is ideal. Purton goes on – he was the last jockey to win on him – and he draws barrier 1, so hopefully he can make a bit more use of that gate.

I think (2) Prime Minister is a definite bet here at $15. He won a few races in New Zealand before coming here, but failed in his only start in Hong Kong. That can often happen and they take time to settle in. I think he’s returned a better horse this preparation because his trials have been very nice. I expect him to roll forward from barrier 10 and I’m expecting a big run from him at double figure odds.

Fownes and Moreira team up with (4) Green Reign who looks set for this first up. His recent trial was good and they’ve been lethal this season when combining.

(12) Le Terroir was backed for a stack first up on his debut for the new stable. He ran well from back in the field and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start much shorter than $9.00. I’ll be backing Loving A Boom and Prime Minister with a saver on Green Reign.

Top pick: (1) Loving A Boom

Betting strategy: 1.5u win Loving A Boom @ $3.50, 0.5u win Prime Minister @ $15, 0.5u win Green Reign @ $6.00

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Race 7

High West Hcp (C2) (1650m)
1:50am (AEDT)

Race 7

High West Hcp (C2) (1650m)
1:50am (AEDT)

1. Preciousship (4) J: A K Chan (60.5kg) T: P Yiu
2. Buddies (3) J: Jerry Chau (58.5kg) T: A S Cruz
3. Not Usual Talent (6) J: C Schofield (56.5kg) T: T P Yung
4. Enjoying (12) J: A Hamelin (56kg) T: D Whyte
5. Insayshable (8) J: N Callan (55kg) T: Y S Tsui
6. Amazing One Plus (10) J: K C Leung (53kg) T: C S Shum
7. Alpha Hedge (7) J: C Y Ho (52.5kg) T: K W Lui
8. Enrichment (2) J: V Borges (52.5kg) T: J J Size
9. Green Luck (5) J: J Moreira (52.5kg) T: C Fownes
10. Solar Wai Wai (11) J: K Teetan (52.5kg) T: F C Lor
11. Bear Again (9) J: A Badel (51.5kg) T: D Ferraris
12. Flying Quest (1) J: M F Poon (51.5kg) T: D J Hall

Odds Last Updated: October 15, 2020, 6:14am (AEDT)

No Bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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