Racing Tips

Warrnambool Racing Tips: Thursday, October 15th

A bit of rain around at Warrnambool where The Horse has found two races he’s betting into on Thursday afternoon.

by
The Horse
14 October 2020

A bit of rain around at Warrnambool, where the track is expected to be a Soft 7 or worse, and The Horse has found two races he’s betting into on Thursday afternoon. We’re going with the favourite in Race 7 before looking for some value in Race 8.

Race 1

Eresources Copy Print Mdn Hwt (2350m)
1:10pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Eresources Copy Print Mdn Hwt (2350m) 1:10pm (AEDT)
1. Dalghar Blue (2) J: Tom Ryan (68.5kg) T: Dane Smith	41	41	35
2. Mustang Harry (9) J: Bradley Thomas-Rantall (68.5kg) T: Simon Ryan	7.5	7.5	8.1
3. Periscope (3) J: Shane Jackson (68.5kg) T: P F Ryan	7.5	7	6.7
4. Think Stars (8) J: Ronan Short (68.5kg) T: Steven Pateman	26	21	26.5
5. Twilight Zone (4) J: Chris Mccarthy (68.5kg) T: B I Stanaway	20	19	20.5
6. Whitton Lane (5) J: Arron Lynch (68.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	21	21	18.4
7. Lady Eleanor (1) J: Luke Williams (66.5kg) T: P F Ryan	23	26	32
8. Tango Gold (7) J: Clayton Douglas (66.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	1.3	1.3	1.26
9. Usarmi (6) J: Will Gordon (66.5kg) T: Ricky Pike	19	17	15.8

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 2

Subway Warrnambool Hwt (Bm78) (3100m)
1:50pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Subway Warrnambool Hwt (Bm78) (3100m) 1:50pm (AEDT)
1. Jukila (7) J: Thomas Sadler (67kg) T: Michelle Payne	1.8	1.8	1.7
2. Transfer Allowance (8) J: Tom Ryan (66kg) T: Thomas Carberry	3.3	3.4	3.2
3. Karakoram (1) J: Arron Lynch (66kg) T: C F Hyland	9	9.5	8.3
4. Onset (5) J: Clayton Douglas (66kg) T: E V Musgrove	9.5	9.5	10.2
5. Barge And Charge (6) J: Bradley Thomas-Rantall (66kg) T: M A Townsend	71	71	73
6. Golden Flag (9) J: Ronan Short (66kg) T: P F Ryan	18	18	15.6
7. Cuban Fighter (4) J: Will Gordon (66kg) T: D N Kolpin	8	8	8.6
8. Nahanni (3) J: Luke Williams (66kg) T: S R Fisher	61	61	69
9. Zubrowka (2) J: Chris Mccarthy (66kg) T: Steven Pateman	31	26	24.5

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 3

Westcoast Wilcleen Mdn Plate (1700m)
2:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Westcoast Wilcleen Mdn Plate (1700m) 2:30pm (AEDT)
1. Superleggera (4) J: Clayton Douglas (59.5kg) T: P F Ryan	23	21	19
2. Chicken Fried (5) J: Ms Chelsea Hall (57.5kg) T: T Cottier	101	101	131
3. Culily Ace (9) J: Ms Alana Kelly (57.5kg) T: Daniel Bowman	10	10	9.6
4. Defining Lady (2) J: Teodore Nugent (57.5kg) T: E W Ewert	51	71	81
5. Dondeska (3) J: Declan Bates (57.5kg) T: L Smith	7	7	7.6
6. Ready To Indulge (7) J: John Allen (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4.6	4.6	4.15
7. Selfie Road (6) J: Arron Lynch (57.5kg) T: Deanne Taylor	51	61	51
8. There For You (1) J: Jack Hill (57.5kg) T: Dane Smith	6.5	6.5	7.6
9. Tralee Rose (8) J: Fred W Kersley (57.5kg) T: Symon Wilde	1.75	1.65	1.64

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 4

Fresh Master Painting Mdn (1200m)
3:00pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Fresh Master Painting Mdn (1200m) 3:00pm (AEDT)
1. Just Call Me James (9) J: Dean Holland (59.5kg) T: Q J Scott	26	26	32
2. Kardinia (7) J: Neil Farley (59.5kg) T: R D Daniel	31	26	25.5
3. Let's Atom (15) J: Dylan Dunn (59.5kg) T: S R Fisher	17	17	14.8
4. Njord (14) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Kaye Edwards	126	101	101
5. We Say Yes (3) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: P W Mckenna	18	19	21.5
6. Chaparral Belle (6) J: Billy Egan (57.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	13	13	11.2
7. Grandma Gail (11) J: Michael Rodd (57.5kg) T: Jamie Edwards	8	8	9.1
8. Koscina (10) J: Campbell Rawiller (57.5kg) T: J T Conlan	18	19	15.6
9. Laforia (12) J: Fred W Kersley (57.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	20	19	16.4
10. Shine The Way (1) J: Chris Caserta (57.5kg) T: L Smith	14	14	15.2
11. Sumusu (5) J: Declan Bates (57.5kg) T: L Smith	6	5	4.95
12. Swing King (4) J: Jarrod Fry (57kg) T: P A Chow	9	9	9.6
13. Paparazzi Queen (13) J: Teodore Nugent (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	3	2.8	2.65
14. Rhee's Reward (2) J: Lewis German (55kg) T: Daniel Bowman	12	11	10
15. Lingjun Topgun (8) J: Unknown (57kg) T: John Mcardle	61	51	63

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 5

Breakwater Insur. Brokers-Bm64 (1200m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Breakwater Insur. Brokers-Bm64 (1200m) 3:30pm (AEDT)
1. Snoano (5) J: Ms Tatum Bull (63.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	26	21	19.8
2. Uncle Larry (9) J: Jarrod Fry (63.5kg) T: P W Mckenna	12	12	12.2
3. Gennady (8) J: Lewis German (61.5kg) T: E Jusufovic	3.9	3.7	3.45
4. Mischa (4) J: Brad Rawiller (60.5kg) T: Symon Wilde	5.5	4.8	4.55
5. Cafe Tortoni (7) J: Billy Egan (59.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	4.5	4.4	4.05
6. Pintoff (10) J: John Allen (59.5kg) T: Richard Cully	5.5	5.5	5
7. Palatial Power (1) J: Dylan Dunn (58.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	11	12	10.6
8. Terracotta (2) J: Michael Rodd (56.5kg) T: L Smith	7.5	7	7.6
9. Rue Royale (6) J: Declan Bates (56kg) T: Adam Chambers	16	17	17.2
10. Trenchant (3) J: Ms Alana Kelly (56kg) T: G Withers	34	34	29

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 6

Western Distr. Agricentre-Bm64 (1400m)
4:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Western Distr. Agricentre-Bm64 (1400m) 4:00pm (AEDT)
1. Sabotage (9) J: Brad Rawiller (61kg) T: Symon Wilde	7	7	7.6
2. Foxy's Star (5) J: Dylan Dunn (60.5kg) T: M J Williams	7	7	6.3
3. Mai Shiny Choice (4) J: Michael Rodd (60.5kg) T: M J Williams
4. Rolls (8) J: John Allen (60.5kg) T: L Smith	1.95	1.9	1.8
5. Takumi (3) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: Aaron Purcell	8.5	8	7.5
6. Skelton (1) J: Jack Hill (59kg) T: Dane Smith	5.5	5.5	6.1
7. Timor Gold (2) J: Declan Bates (58kg) T: Ms J Baker	9.5	8	9.6
8. Mr Plow (6) J: Dean Holland (57kg) T: Q J Scott	41	41	36
9. Numerate (7) J: Teodore Nugent (56kg) T: Ms M Harry	23	21	26.5
10. Diamond Geyser (10) J: Ms Jade Darose (56kg) T: Ms B Simpson	81	81	69

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Race 7

Darrian Office Choice (Bm64) (1700m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Darrian Office Choice (Bm64) (1700m) 4:30pm (AEDT)
1. Kissinger (10) J: Michael Rodd (61.5kg) T: L Smith	1.8	1.8	1.74
2. Wentwood (11) J: John Allen (61.5kg) T: Maddie Raymond	12	12	10.4
3. Jenkins (5) J: Jaden Lloyd (60.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
4. Possession (6) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: Patrick Payne	10	9.5	10.2
5. Love Venus (4) J: Arron Lynch (59kg) T: R D Daniel	19	18	16.8
6. Sandbanks (3) J: Declan Bates (59kg) T: L Smith	13	14	11.4
7. Zoffany Rocket (1) J: Will Gordon (59kg) T: D J Londregan	51	51	73
8. Field Of Lights (8) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: Symon Wilde	7	6.5	7.1
9. Garbo (7) J: Campbell Rawiller (57.5kg) T: Ms J Baker	9.5	9	8
10. Bambolina (9) J: Teodore Nugent (57kg) T: C P Ryan	9	9.5	10.2
11. Rendelsham (2) J: Chris Caserta (56kg) T: Aaron Purcell	31	31	35

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Warrnambool is a Soft 7 at the time of writing with more rain forecasted, so let’s assume we are at a Soft or worse at jump.

The horse that gains my attention here is the lightly raced 5yo (1) Kissinger who was unlucky not to win in a BM64 last time after an okay first-up performance in a 70BM behind Zousonic. Lindsay Smith started him off in the BM70 at a distance which he wouldn’t have been expected to be competitive in, which shows that this lower grade is expected to be well within his grasp. The punters have clued on and the $2.25 opening quote is already gone. Michael Rodd will most likely drop worse than mid-field – which will make this a real test – but one he can overcome. Kissinger has not really been tested on tough going either, but he heralds from New Zealand so we can expect some degree of comfort.

(10) Bambolina has won two in a row now—albeit a maiden and BM58. And can continue to improve at good odds.

The other one at odds is (2) Wentwood who performed well in Ireland but has failed to deliver much in Australia.

TIP: (10) Kissinger – $1.85 at PlayUp

Race 8

Bowman Financial Services-Bm64 (1000m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Bowman Financial Services-Bm64 (1000m) 5:00pm (AEDT)
1. Red Casino (6) J: Ms Alana Kelly (64kg) T: Paul Mckenna	81	71	83
2. Big Reel (12) J: Campbell Rawiller (63kg) T: M J Mckenzie	13	12	14.2
3. Kosowski (1) J: Clayton Douglas (61kg) T: B J Mccarthy	9	8.5	9.1
4. Cataracta (13) J: John Allen (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	5	4.4	5.6
5. Capital Zous (9) J: Michael Rodd (59.5kg) T: L Smith	3.6	3.5	3.65
6. River Span (5) J: Dylan Dunn (59kg) T: M J Williams	14	11	12.2
7. Substantial (11) J: Chris Caserta (58.5kg) T: Aaron Purcell	15	15	13
8. Nick'em (7) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (57kg) T: R J Besanko	18	15	18.2
9. Rome (8) J: Billy Egan (57kg) T: Aaron Purcell	8.5	8.5	7.4
10. Early Plea (3) J: Declan Bates (56.5kg) T: Daniel Bowman	6.5	6.5	5.8
11. Glenferrie Girl (4) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: Adam Chambers	9.5	9.5	8.3
12. Atum (10) J: Neil Farley (56kg) T: R D Daniel	51	51	43
13. Mandjar (2) J: Ms Tatum Bull (56kg) T: M W Greig	81	101	111

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Looking for something at value here in the last at Warrnambool where the favourite (5) Capital Zous looks a little vulnerable. He has had one race for one win on a Heavy track at Hamilton. It was a good win but there is some uncertainty to the quality of that race when comparing it to some of the higher-graded races some of the other runners come out of. Don’t get me wrong – he can win this – but the odds would need to drift out from the $3.50 to peak my interest (which they might).

In looking around him I cannot get away from the Maher & Eustace runner (4) Cataracta who ticks a lot of boxes. He is great fresh (two wins and a place from four starts) and handles any going (with all three wins on Soft or Heavy). This is his pet distance and gets all the conditions to suit. He has been competitive in BM70 grade races last preparation so is dropping back in grade to what he is already proven in. Add to that mix a quality jockey with John Allen taking the reins. At the $5.50 quote there looks to be plenty of value. Due to the width of this race we can expect the odds to remain available unless the race succumbs to several scratchings.

TIP: (4) Cataracta – $5.50 at Sportsbet

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.