Kembla Grange Racing Tips: Saturday, September 11th

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

You know my rules with Highways, don’t bet. BUT, there is a runner here I can give a good push for and will be having half a unit on.

(6) Philipsburg gets a good set up here and really should be giving this a good shake. He split Sunrise Ruby and Mr Hussill first up in a Highway over 1200m at Randwick. Sunrise Ruby then ran in a metro race and finished 2nd, while Mr Hussill flashed home for 3rd in a Highway last weekend. Last start, Philipsburg was a complete forgive run, held up badly in the straight over this track and distance. Never got a clear crack at them and did start $2.45 in that race. The draw is slightly awkward here but we’re getting $4.40 which is a very backable price.

Tip: (6) Philipsburg $4.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Philipsburg

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

(1) Mankayan does look hard to beat here and it’s no surprise he’s been very well backed early. He’s about as low as you’d want to get now but gets plenty in his favour. He’s been very good in two Australian starts, motoring home first up at Flemington before working home well again from a long way off them at this track last start. Gets up to 2400m third up today and also draws a low gate for the first time, meaning we could see him settle much closer in running. Hugh Bowman sticks, the only query will be the firm track but he looks the winner.

Tip: (1) Mankayan $1.95 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Mankayan

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

Something small on a couple of runners here in what looks a very open race.

(1) Pesto should improve here. He went in first up with just one trial under the belt, so he should strip much fitter from that especially after another trial. Up to 2000m now is a plus and Bowman is another positive.

(13) Toomuchtobear beat Mr Brightside in Melbourne three starts ago and that form line just continues to hold up. He then came to NSW and bolted in at Newcastle in a much easier race. He never really got clear running last start but he shouldn’t have that issue from barrier 6 here and up to 2000m is another interesting move. Think he runs a race here and we’re getting $7.50 to find out just how good he is.

Tip: (13) Toomuchtobear $7.50 BetDeluxe

Also Backing: (1) Pesto $5.50 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Toomuchtobear, 0.5 units WIN Pesto

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

Once again breaking my rule of not betting in Midways or Highways.

(5) Barossa Rosa has been trialling well ahead of her return to racing today. First up last prep she broke her maiden at Canterbury before eventually going on to run 2nd in a Provincial Championships qualifier. She was last seen finishing down the track in Group 3 company and we now see her return in a Midway. Should be going close.

(8) Noble Soldier went into my horses to follow file two starts ago when she ran the best second-last you’ll ever see. Just had absolutely nothing go right with the 3kg apprentice on and her two prior efforts were full of merit as well. She bounced out of that run and won as the longest-priced of four runners at Kensington last start. Draws the inside here for a good run and can be competitive.

Tip: (5) Barossa Rosa $5.50 PlayUp

Also Backing: (8) Noble Soldier $8.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Barossa Rosa, 0.5 units WIN Noble Soldier

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

(1) Tiger Of Malay returned a winner in the Up And Coming Stakes here a month ago and despite being drawn wide today, he should be hard to beat again. He beat Converge last prep and he has the runs on the board so with improvement from that first run, he should be tough to hold out.

(4) Giannis has always threatened to be a good horse and maybe it’s his three-year-old year that we see it. He’s had three trials leading into this first up run which is a bit unusual for Waller, and he’s won them all. Draws well and expecting a big run.

(7) Silent Impact is undefeated but he did win a maiden and a two-year-old race. Draws ideally here and he’s a bit of the unknown in the race.

Tip: (1) Tiger Of Malay $3.70 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

Only two runners I’m interested in here.

I’ve made (4) Entriviere my best bet of the day. Her record tells you she’s got plenty of talent, with five wins and two 2nds from seven starts. Her only start on Australian soil was last prep when beaten a nose by Fasika in the Sapphire Stakes. She was set to run a couple of weeks ago but had a lameness issue. That’s a small concern but if she’s 100% I think she wins.

(8) Written Beauty might be back to her best this preparation. She had been jumping like a gazelle at the trials leading into her first up run but she made a complete mess of the start on race day. Berry showed no urgency after that and she still managed to zoom home along the inside to finish 5th. If she jumps cleanly today, I think she’s the danger.

Tip: (4) Entriviere $2.30 TopSport

Saver: (8) Written Beauty $7.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Entriviere, 0.5 units WIN Written Beauty

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

The $9 from the video preview is long gone but I’ve made (3) Roheryn my best value bet of the day. He’s a horse that flies fresh. He’s undefeated from five starts when first up from a spell. On that basis alone the $9 was over the odds and he is surely a good each way chance in this.

(6) Private Eye was super impressive first up winning over 1200m in Group 3 company. He has a terrific second up record and is building a very good overall record now with seven wins from 10 starts. With any luck from the gate I think he’s the horse to beat.

(10) Big Parade is another who was super impressive first up, jumping to the front and destroying his rivals. He won by more than 3L second up last prep so there’s every chance he comes out and repeats the dose today, but this is a tougher race.

Tip: (3) Roheryn E/W $7.50/$2.30 BetDeluxe

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN/1.5 units PLACE Roheryn

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

All eyes on (2) Anamoe here, the Sires’ Produce winner resuming for the first time since his Group 1 win in the Autumn. His trial behind Gytrash was enormous and if he’s anywhere near his best, he’ll be winning this. There’s always the query when they’re having their first run as a three-year-old though.

(4) Converge is the other one we saw win a Group 1 last time he raced, bolting in to win the JJ Atkins in Brisbane. Whether he will be sharp enough first up over 1200m is a query but he just got better and better with racing last prep and went out giving the impression he’d return as a serious three-year-old.

(8) Remarque had no luck first up and it’s worth noting he started $3.00 there. Bowman jumps on today and with any luck from the gate he can win.

(5) Home Affairs next best.

Tip: (2) Anamoe $2.70 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

(4) Emanate looks well set up here with James McDonald jumping on second up, taking over from apprentice Brock Ryan. The horse goes super second up, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. Bolted in this stage last prep and if JMac can get any sort of decent run from the wide gate, she’ll be tough to beat.

(8) Count De Rupee looks the danger first up from the good draw, with Brock Ryan taking the ride after riding Emanate last start. 2/2 at this track and distance and has run five top-two finishes from six starts on good ground.

Tip: (4) Emanate $4.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Emanate

Odds Last Updated: September 11, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(6) Kingsheir was only narrowly beaten last start on a rain-affected track after bolting in first up on firm ground. Inside draw, back on a dry track should suit and think he goes very close.

(7) Loveplanet has been a very tough horse for me (and punters) in his past two starts. He looked all over a winner last start before stopping and getting run down in the final stride. I do think he’s improving with each Sydney run and JMac sticks from the good draw today. No surprise to see him win.

(9) Brookspire was dominant first up but does go heavy ground to good ground.

Tip: (6) Kingsheir $3.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet