Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, December 11th

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(3) The Felon does look the horse to beat. He ran 2^nd to Field Of Roses on resumption, who is a good chance tomorrow at Flemington. His win on debut was good, and he didn’t have the best of runs 2^nd up last prep in a fairly strong race.

 

(5) Yulong Command drops back to 1200m after running 4^th to Here To Shock at Sandown last start. I thought he had his chance there and his win prior was just fair despite being the $1.35 favourite.

 

(2) El Salto looks to have a bit of talent after leading all the way to win at Traralgon on debut. Drawn barrier one here, he could find the front again and might be hard to run down.

 

Tip: (3) The Felon $3.25 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Keen on (11) Tarantello here. She probably should’ve won on debut after box seating and finding all sorts of bad luck in the straight, running the race fastest last 200m once clear. Kah jumps on here who rides this track exceptionally well, and she draws better than a couple of her main dangers in barrier 6.

 

(4) Red Santa comes out of the same race and was also unlucky, getting shuffled back when trying to make a run and not really seeing clear air. He’s a fairly big colt that took a while to wind up, and I think a bigger track might be more his go. He also draws wide and could be forced to settle further back.

 

(7) Livingstone Falls was a moral beaten on debut after finding traffic wherever she went. She settled back on that occasion and I’d expect that to be the case again here. She’s obviously got good ability, but if she’s back near the tail of the field it’ll be interesting to see if she can run Tarantello down.

 

Tip: (11) Tarantello $3.30 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Tarantello

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(8) Tugga War is flying, having won her last two. Last start she was stepping up from 1200m to 1600m but dominated the race out in front, giving nothing else a look in on the way toa. 3L victory. The form line between a few of these comes through a horse called Punkzy, who started 2^nd favourite against Tugga War but didn’t show up and was beaten 8.8L.

 

Punkzy was only a length off (2) Our Birdsong at Geelong, who then came out and ran a very solid 3^rd at Sandown last start.

 

The winner of that Sandown race was (3) Dee Keepa who controlled the race outside the leader and was too strong for the unlucky Metronome, who won at Pakenham on Saturday. Dee Keepa draws wide here but should settle in the first 4. She deserves to be favourite off last start, but with 56kg after Teo’s claim, Tugga War looks well placed to control this race and be right in the finish at good odds.

 

Tip: (8) Tugga War $8.5 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Tugga War

 

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Good little race, and the market has narrowed it down to two chances. (9) Loveplanet looks very smart and hard to beat here. He was very green on debut at Pakenham when forced to race between horses. He started $2.15 there after some good jumpouts and it’s turned out to be a pretty hot maiden, with Field Of Roses and Dragon Time both winning since. Loveplanet then went to Yarra Valley for an easy kill and bolted in by 6L. Drawn barrier 2, I think he could even end up leading this field with no designated leader. If that eventuates and he has clear galloping room, I think he’ll win, and win well.

 

(10) Make Mine Hennessey is the obvious danger, on the quick backup from last Friday. He was given a good ride from the back, following the right horses into the straight and proving too strong. Drawn the carpark here, he’ll have to go back again and I’m not sure he’ll be able to run down Loveplanet.

 

Tip: (9) Loveplanet $1.90 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Loveplanet

Odds Last Updated: January 23, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

I think (2) Rock Tycoon can bounce back here. He won two on the bounce, including a fairly dominant victory at this T/D two back, before backing up in a stronger race and running last in the field of 4 behind Grandview Avenue. That’s the best 955m form going around at the moment, and from all reports Rock Tycoon didn’t handle the backup. He’s had 3 weeks off, and gets Madison Llyod back on, which I wouldn’t usually say is a positive, but she gets on with the horse very well and produced an absolute pearler to get him home two back. Drawn barrier 4, she should get every chance just behind the pace.

 

(5) The Last Napoleon was solid first up and has a strong 2^nd up record. His only go at the T/D was a dominant win in an easier race.

 

(1) Condo’s Express is wearing thin and I’m jumping off, but his best form would go very close. Drawn wide with 62kg Jamie Kah will need to be at her absolute best to get him home.

 

(9) High Risk isn’t hopeless. She started hard in the market behind Meteorite first up but didn’t handle the heavy 10 fresh before sticking on well after having 5 weeks off at Cranbourne. She draws barrier one here and could hold them out for the lead. With 54.5kg on her back and at peak fitness she’s worth a small play.

 

Tip: (2) Rock Tycoon $6.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (9) High Risk $14.20 Sportsbetting

 

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Rock Tycoon, 0.5 units WIN High Risk

 

Odds Last Updated: February 13, 2021, 2:16am (AEDT)

Bit of a nothing race. (9) Meehni is the favourite coming off a decent run behind Chief Altony and Hasseltoff, which is very strong form. She was beaten nearly 5L there, but it was still a decent effort. Her form prior in Adelaide was decent, and the rise in trip should help.

 

(2) Desert Dreamer is very consistent and steps up in trip after two strong efforts at the mile.

 

(4) Muleta next best, but I’ve got no real interest in betting here.

 

Tip: (9) Meehni $3.60 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No Bet

 

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(3) Don’ttelltheboss is clearly the best horse in the race. Her 3yo form from last prep around horses like Ocular and Affair To Remember is lengths ahead of bm64 on a Friday night. It’s just whether the 1200m is too short for her to show something near her best. Her record at the distance reads 7: 0-0-3 which isn’t great, but they’ve been in good races. She ran 3^rd in a Typhoon Tracy behind an airborne Ms Catherine here earlier this year which would win this, but she will need a good ride from barrier 3 given her racing pattern.

 

(6) Marine Belle will go forward from a wide gate and looks ready to win 3^rd up.

Don’ttelltheboss gets in so well at the weights, especially after the 2kg claim. I’d be watching the market with her- if she’s firm and holding her price I’m happy to bet. If she’s drifting heavily, you can always reduce the stake for a better collect.

 

Tip: (3) Don’ttelltheboss $3.50 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Don’ttelltheboss

Odds Last Updated: December 12, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Reward With Return looks a bit of value in the last. He just had to do way too much work last start over this T/D, working 3 and 4 wide the trip on a fairly strong speed. I thought he battled on very well considering, only beaten 3.2L by Bandersnatch. The start before over 1000m he led the field and was run down by Vowmaster, who looks a group class horse any day of the week, with nearly 2L back to 3^rd. He draws wide again which is the knock, but at the price I’m happy to play and hope he gets a good ride.

 

(4) Evening Glory has jumped out well and is a handy horse. 1200m probably isn’t his go further down the track, but he can sprint well fresh.

 

(11) Force is the interesting runner, making his Australian debut from Hong Kong. He’s jumped out well and Olly takes the ride.

 

Tip: (2) Reward With Return – $11 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Reward With Return