Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, February 26th

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

(1) Treporti is the horse to beat in the opener. His run first up behind Ingratiating was very solid when running on late for 4^th, beaten 4.75L. That horse nearly won a Blue Diamond, so the form is obviously very good. The 1200m should suit and the even money or thereabouts is probably fair enough.

 

(4) Micro has been running okay and was solid over 1300m last start at Sandown when racing keenly. The run prior down the straight was good but that Abseiler/Telluride form is suspect.

 

(3) Gobbled is on debut and has jumped out well. He draws well and can run a race on debut.

Tip: (1) Treporti- $2.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Treporti

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

(7) Marabi is a prohibitive $1.28 here coming off a 6L win on debut at Pakenham. She wasn’t far off the track record there and obviously looks very hard to beat but that is very short.

 

(6) Frisson has been racing well and drops back in trip for this. He won his maiden at Kilmore over this trip and wasn’t far off them in a similar race behind Ellis Park last start which is solid form.

 

(1) O’reilly Mcluke was backed off the map at his Aus debut and won impressively before a solid showing 2^nd up when hard in the market again.

 

Marabi should be winning but no bet here with no third dividend for any place chances.

Tip: (7) Marabi- $1.35 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Very thin race between a bunch of stayers and fairly average horses. (2) Cassius is the favourite and does like this track, having only finished out of the placings once here. Stockdale rode it perfectly last start from barrier 4 and draws 3 tonight.

 

(1) The Regiment is the other main hope and he’s absolutely flying after breaking a long run of outs. The form out of his races is stacking up nicely too- Just Stellar won impressively last start after finishing 2^nd to The Regiment, and Il Divo was 5^th in that race and won at Pakenham. Barrier one is the obvious knock because he could be stuck behind a few road- blocks, but he can settle close and with luck he’s a decent price.

 

(6) Surreal Image next best because she can go forward but this is a very weak race.

 

Tip: (1) The Regiment- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN The Regiment

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Strong 955m race and I’m siding with a very fast mare off a spell in (2) Ms Catherine. Completely forgiving last prep where she changed stables and was sent to Queensland. Her most recent first up run for Dwyer was on a soft 6 over 1000m here where she ran 3^rd to Iconic Star and Sansom, and her other two starts here were very good all the way wins in fast time, on good tracks, including a group 3. Her jumpout with Ancestry was electric and I think she’s going to ping the lids and run these into the ground first up.

 

(1) Sartorial Splendor is no slouch and did win first up at this T/D last prep when able to lead on his own, which I don’t think he’ll be able to do here. Nevertheless, he’s a chance if Ms Catherine doesn’t show up.

 

(8) Lesage ran some good races last prep and generally performs well fresh. She’s trialled very well in Sydney and although the 955m might be just a touch short, she’ll be hitting the line strongly from the back.

 

(9) Esta La Roca has been freshened which looks the right move. She was outclassed in a stronger 3yo race last start but walked in when able to dictate here two back.

Tip: (2) Ms Catherine- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ms Catherine

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

It’s sick but I can’t go past (3) Savannah Cloud again. I’m convinced he should be 2/2 this prep, having covered a stack of ground first up at $1.40 behind one who was a moral beaten here. 2^nd up he again racing wide but hit the line strongly behind a leader who got the perfect run on speed and has since raced 3 wide on speed in a group 3 and performed well all things considered. He’s wearing thin but with a good run in transit I just think he’s bursting to put a race away.

 

(1) Snapper led all the way at this T/D to break his maiden in dominant fashion. He did get every favour on a good night to lead but the win was very good, and he’ll go forward again.

 

(10) Zelify should appreciate the 1200m after starting hard in the market over 1000m here last start. Her only win was at 1200m where she won by 2L as an odds on chance when 2^nd up. With Lane on she’s a chance.

 

(2) Ice Ice Baby gets Kah on and should appreciate the 1200m here 2^nd up.

Tip: (3) Savannah Cloud- $2.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Savannah Cloud

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

(10) Holster has been racing consistently and boxed on well after leading over this trip last start. Kah keeps the ride and he can settle in a good spot from barrier 5, but he hasn’t exactly proven himself at this trip.

 

(9) Comanche Brave has ticked that box and led all the way at Sandown over 1800m last start. He raced against Holster and finished alongside that horse two back over 1600m after sitting OSL. Holster endured a tougher run back and wide against the bias and was the better run in my opinion, but Comanche Brave has further scope to improve and has run the distance.

 

(7) Lorenzetti will be the one finishing hard. He was off a year’s break but charged into 3^rd over 1600m here first up. A bit wary of him 2^nd up off that break but he’s certainly talented enough to win this.

 

(4) Larrikin next best off a good Sandown win.

Tip: (9) Comanche Brave- $3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

(3) Outlandos has won two in a row, both by big margins. He got every favour last start but did it easily. Can’t see the 2500m being a huge issue off that run, although he draws much wider tonight and might be forced to go back.

 

(7) Perfect Illusion was 4.8L off Outlandos when they met but definitely stays the trip and was again solid last start behind Shepard. Struggles to win but Lane sticks from barrier 2.

 

(2) Playoffs is coming off a solid 3^rd at this T/D which might be the key. He boxed on well behind Starcaster, who won the Torney Night Cup at his next start.

 

(1) Fanciful Toff was only 2^nd up when chasing Outlandos last start. 3^rd up last prep he ran 2^nd to Too Close The Sun in the Terang Cup which is very good form for a race like this. The 2500m will suit because he lacks a turn of foot.

Tip: (1) Fanciful Toff- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Does look a race in two, with (6) Zoushack holding favouritism. He couldn’t reel in the leader at Caulfield two back when starting favourite but atoned with a gritty win down the straight last start. Gets Lane on from a good gate and is an obvious chance.

 

(1) Open Minded was the one to deny Zoushack at Caulfield after leading all the way, with Zoushack having every chance outside him. He backed up that effort with a dominant win in the Sale sprint, beating a fairly handy field. I know he started much longer than Zoushack when they met but the win since has swayed me his way. Thornton has ridden him perfectly at his last two and should be able to show the same urgency out of the gates to try and lead from barrier 9.

 

(2) Leiter has jumped out well after being freshened. He’s got a good first up record and whilst he can be very hit and miss, his best is good enough.

 

(10) Madam Superior next best coming off a win at this T/D last start in easier grade and chasing the smart Absolute Flirt the start prior.

 

Tip: (1) Open Minded- $3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Open Minded