Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, November 12th

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 6:19pm (AEDT)

High weight 3800m race to kick off the night. The clear lead up was a 3000m race here a few weeks ago won by (3) True Marvel who rounded them up in a tough win. He’s since dropped back to 1900m at Canterbury which was basically a barrier trial. Now gets to 3800m which I can’t see posing an issue off the strength of his 3000m win. Will need another good ride but looks the one to beat.

(1) Raise You Ten led that race and was beaten 3L. Since then he’s gone to Gawler and won over 3340m in a tough effort. Can’t doubt Maher/Eustace at 3800m and he has the advantage of being able to lead again from barrier 3, whereas his main dangers likely get back. If that’s an advantage on a wet Moonee Valley deck, he’ll be right there.

(2) Reflect The Stars is the best horse in the race but over 2400m and on good tracks. 3800m on what could be closer to a soft 7 is a huge query.

Tip: (3) True Marvel- $3.90 at TopSport

Also Backing: (1) Raise You Ten- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN True Marvel, 0.5 units WIN Raise You Ten

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 6:49pm (AEDT)

Not sure if (4) Audrey Girl is racing here or tomorrow at Cranbourne where I think she’s a good chance. She might be here if they haven’t scratched by now. If Prebble can use her up and settle a bit closer which she has done in the past she’ll run well.

(2) Wilsons Prom is probably advantaged by the map and can go forward. He led in the Carbine Club and faded but this is easier and he bolted in on a soft 6 the start prior.

(7) Burning Power was solid behind Espiona at Flemington last start, beaten 7L which isn’t a bad effort given that horse’s talent.

Tip: (4) Audrey Girl- $7.50 at Bet365

Saver: (2) Wilsons Prom- $3.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Audrey Girl, 0.5 units WIN Wilsons Prom

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 7:19pm (AEDT)

(8) Masterful has jumped out well for his debut run. He’s been backed a bit early and can run well.

(11) Rose Tycoon ran well over 900m on debut without luck but now steps to 1200m and that has to be some query.

Not much interest here to be honest.

Tip: (8) Masterful- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 7:49pm (AEDT)

(2) Rock Tycoon ran in one of these last start, got back and was forced to make a long, wide run around the bend, just peaking his last 200m. Wet track is no issue and Madison Lloyd knows the horse well. Don’t love the barrier but at the price I can be with him.

(6) The Last Napoleon beat Rock Tycoon home by 0.8L but he got the passage through the field and I thought their runs were equally as good, but Rock Tycoon is 3x his price. The Last Napoleon also draws barrier 2 and will need a very good ride.

(8) Fake Love does look well placed. I don’t think she’s much good but she had a throat condition first up when failing and was good last start here over 1000m, leading and being run down by Marine One and Island Edition who are quite handy. Doubt she leads here but with 54kg she’ll run well.

(1) Lady Solly loves the 955m and has won on a heavy track, albeit over 2 years ago. She’s potentially better 2nd up but is very fast and probably leads these.

Tip: (2) Rock Tycoon- $16.20/4.05 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Rock Tycoon

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 8:19pm (AEDT)

(5) Mystery Island is looking for all of the 2040m and more. He wasn’t suited last start dropping back in trip in a slowly run race. A wet track is no issue for him and I think Froggy will be aggressive and run these along.

(1) Holster is flying and was simply too good last start over 1862m. This is the first time being tried over a trip but by Tavistock and his win last start suggest it’ll be fine.

(10) Kwoi Hoi gets 2kg off Holster for a 2L defeat last start and was the even money favourite there. Drawn barrier 1 expect him to try and hold the lead which could be an advantage.

(12) Sacred Lass gets in with 52kg and was good first up, running on for 3rd behind Groovy Kinda Love. Her run over this T/D when 3rd behind Mahashakti was solid form for this.

Tip: (5) Mystery Island- $10.00/3.10 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Mystery Island

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 8:49pm (AEDT)

(6) Galactic Fury easily comes out of the best race behind Wicklow Town where he held his ground beaten 3.4L. This is easier and the win 2nd up at Benalla was excellent. He’s run well on soft 6/7 as a 3yo so I think he’ll handle conditions, he’ll just need the right run and there does look decent speed on.

(3) Akecheta is racing well and stuck on for 3rd behind Imperial Lad last start over 1500m. Doesn’t win often but will roll forward and give his all.

(2) Confrontational broke through for a dominant win last start and can go on with it now.

Tip: (6) Galactic Fury- $3.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Galactic Fury

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 9:19pm (AEDT)

I like (7) See You In Spring off a freshen up, at 1000m and on a soft track. First up she wasn’t beaten too far in the Quezette at 1100m before leading all the way at Cranbourne. Last start she was outclassed behind General Beau and Ranveer, with D Moor thinking she wasn’t right. She draws wide with plenty of speed but I think she can run well.

(13) Sistine Explorer took on two of the better 2yo races last prep before retuning with a big win in a Ballarat maiden over 1000m. She drops in weight off that and looks to have plenty of upside.

(8) Sweetzou can run well first up as she often does. She led all the way first up last prep before they started taking a sit on her. They may look to take a sit here with plenty of speed.

Tip: (7) See You In Spring- $12.00/3.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W See You In Spring

Odds Last Updated: November 12, 2021, 9:49pm (AEDT)

Good race to finish. Happy to be with (7) Jump The Broom first up. She was too good at $2.35 on debut last prep beating Toomuchtobear who goes well, and the jumpouts have been good. The draw isn’t ideal but a soft track should be fine and she looks the horse to beat.

(10) Lady Of Honour has early speed and was too good at Ballarat first up. They went slowly there and she was advantaged but she’s got upside and maps well.

(12) Ravaged Award was a huge win on debut from a long way back over 1000m. She’s clearly looking for 1200m now and likely even further in time being by Shamus Award. She’ll get back again here which isn’t ideal but looks very talented.

Tip: (7) Jump The Broom- $4.60 at Bet365

Also Backing: (12) Ravaged Award- $6.50 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Jump The Broom, 1 unit WIN Ravaged Award