Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, November 20th

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(3) Passionate Lass is the favourite coming off a strong debut win at Mornington where she led all the way. Drawn barrier 2 with Willo replacing Poy, I would expect them to be finding the front here, and the way this track has played the last few meetings it might be game over if she does. If it’s not a complete highway, I thought she was short enough here despite the impressive debut win but being race 1 we can’t know for sure.

 

(1) Kuna Magic was impressive on debut in a weak race at the Sapphire Coast. She got back on that occasion but a recent jumpout suggested she could push forward from barrier 7.

 

It’s a pretty average race- I’d rather use it as a confirmation that it’ll be on pace suited rather than launch into $2.20 about the favourite, so I’m happy to give the first a miss from a betting perspective.

 

Tip: (3) Passionate Lass $2.25 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- No bet.

 

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another fairly average race, but (2) Midnight Rambler does look suited. He’s run 2^nd at his last two starts but gets a big jockey change with Olly jumping on for the O’Brien stable. The main reason I have him on top is the map- despite being drawn wide he looks to land in the first few in running. He drew the widest barrier last start but was very quickly away and led them comfortably. If he finds the front here and it’s a highway, they might not be able to catch him.

 

(5) Evie Girl is another that can roll forward. She ran 2^nd last start to an all the way winner, but there was 4L back to 3^rd. She’s certainly shown enough talent to be considered here and if she can find a good spot from barrier 7 she’ll be in the finish.

 

Speaking of big gaps back to 3^rd, (9) Mimi’s Award ran 2^nd on debut with 5.5L back to 3^rd. She drew wide there and went back. Drawn barrier 8 here I’m not sure what they do. If she’s able to position closer to the speed, she’ll go very close but backing favourites that get back to last on leader’s tracks are never a recipe for success.

 

Tip: (2) Midnight Rambler $6.5 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Midnight Rambler

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Speed map is key here and again, a couple of the key pace influences have drawn wide. (8) New Choice has led his last 3 races, winning his last two. The start before that he ran a 0.1L 2^nd in a handy class 1. He’s a fit horse, in form that will be up on pace and suited, which ticks enough boxes for me at the $9.50.

 

There wasn’t much between (1) Desert Dreamer and (3) Okotoks over this T/D last start. I’d lean the way of Desert Dreamer because he maps better from barrier 2 and did have the SP over Okotoks.

 

(7) Faithful Diamond is a 4 start, 6yo mare but has run top 2 in all 4 of those starts. She’ll be on speed and whilst this is a step up, she has scope to improve.

 

Tip: (8) New Choice $9.5 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN New Choice

Odds Last Updated: February 27, 2021, 4:26am (AEDT)

Looking at this race when markets went up, I thought it was about right with (5) Meteorite around $2.50 and Sartorial Splendor around $4. Both of them like to lead and recently recorded very fast, strong wins over this T/D. Sartorial Splendor has since been scratched, as has Kalkarni Royale, meaning Meteorite should be getting complete control once again. He’s much better suited back around a bend, despite running well at Flemington last start in similar grade. His win in 54.54 here two back was electric, running away by 5 lengths. If he runs anywhere near that, he’ll be winning this and I’m very happy to take $2 about him with Sartorial Splendor out, rather than $2.50 with him in. If we are dealing with a leader bias again, this horse will start closer to $1.60 than even money and I’m very confident he wins.

 

(3) Rock Tycoon is flying and looks the danger but was given an absolute peach last start at this T/D.

 

With Whipcracker Way scratched, Meteorite is into $1.60. I can’t really see him drifting much, but if we can still get around $1.70 on the night, I can’t really see a scenario where it loses. Watch the exchange market!

 

Tip: (5) Meteorite $1.63 Betfair

 

Betting Strategy- 5 units WIN Meteorite

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Going to give (6) All About Fashion another chance here. I didn’t mind her first up and she ran well for 3^rd at Bendigo in a fairly handy bm64. This isn’t any harder and she’ll work to the front from barrier 8. The camp are flying, it’ll be on speed and a decent price at $8.60.

 

(3) Zouzagem comes out of a strong bm64 at this T/D, I just wonder where he’ll get to on the map from barrier 13.

 

(2) Helavabel comes here first up for the Eurell camp, who are a gun fresh stable. Olly rode the horse in one run last prep in a much stronger race behind Final Man and Alburq, and he sticks here. He’s another that draws very wide, but I could entertain having something on, potentially at a longer price late on the exchange.

 

(1) Harpuna could find the front from barrier 1 if he’s quickly enough away. If that occurs, he’ll be right in the finish- I think the SA form he brings is strong enough.

 

Tip: (6) All About Fashion $8.60 Sportsbetting

Danger: (2) Helavabel $9.5 TAB

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN All About Fashion, 0.5 units WIN Helavabel

Odds Last Updated: December 5, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

A few of the main chances come out of a Flemington 1700m race, where (8) Tragic ran 2^nd. It was a solid effort, but the apprentice on from barrier 1 where he could potentially be 3 back the fence scares me, and at even money I’m happy to steer clear.

 

(9) Night Witches has a few lengths to make up on Tragic, but she draws the carpark and I would think she goes back from there.

 

(4) Diaquin probably gets back as well but does strip fitter 2^nd up and her best form would go close here. 2^nd up last prep she ran a nose 2^nd in a similar race, beating home Florent. Her form around Wild Vixen and La Chevalee would win this, it’s just whether she’s fit enough or gets too far back.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see something at rough odds lead all the way, but the on pace horses really do look a few lengths below the market hopes, so I’ll have a small spec on Diaquin.

 

Tip: (4) Diaquin $9 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Diaquin

 

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

With Kissinger scratched, all roads lead to (2) Thought Of That being exceptionally hard to beat- provided he brings somewhere near his best. I’ve backed him a couple of times this prep and whilst he hasn’t won, some of his efforts have been very strong. His run here behind Shandy when forced to set a strong tempo outside the lead was excellent, and even his run last start here over 1500m behind Groundswell and Titan Blinders was good. He settled in the 1-1 there, but you really had to be leading on the fence to be a chance. He finally looks to dominate a race from the front, drawn barrier 2, up to 2040m. He’s had a few weeks between runs, but that’s not unusual for him or the stable. If he can’t win this, he gets life.

 

(12) Nerve Not Verve was caught wide in the Matriarch and dropped out. I thought her run prior at this T/D was only fair behind West Wind and Affair To Remember when seemingly having every chance outside the lead. She’s not hopeless but I would’ve thought she’d have to settle outside Thought Of That here.

 

(10) Robe Bay is coming off a win in the Mortlake Cup but could be spotting Thought Of That a big head start and looks short enough.

 

Tip: (2) Thought Of That $3.8 Bet365

 

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Thought Of That

Odds Last Updated: November 21, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(11) Vowmaster is the odds on favourite after an impressive Kyneton debut, coming from last and storming home. He’s obviously talented, but if this track is a highway and he’s last again, the $1.80 looks very short.

 

One that will get back and try to swoop is (8) Divine Caprice. She’s a fairly handy filly on her day, and I think you’ll get a big price about her because of her racing pattern.

 

(6) High Risk failed on the heavy 10 track first up. Back onto a firm deck, she’ll go forward and be hard to run down. Her form last prep around Mrs Beckham is solid, and she’s still only lightly raced.

 

(3) Young Liam was caught wide on speed last start. His best form around this circuit is good enough- he started $5.50 and ran 4^th to Iconic Star and Sansom before a spell.

 

Tip: (6) High Risk $8.5 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Divine Caprice $12 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN High Risk, 0.5 units WIN Divine Caprice