Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, November 28th

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Tricky little opener. I thought the favourite (5) Seb Song gets a lot in his favour here. The 2nd to Shelby Cobra on debut is obviously very strong despite that horse failing at Ballarat. Last start he was hard in the market and ran a very narrow 2nd to Kohli, with nearly 8L back to 3rd. That horse came out and was very well respected by the market at Sandown and ran much, much better than his 8th placing would read. Seb Song steps up to the mile for the first time, but I don’t think that’ll be an issue, and he gets the best rider of this track Jamie Kah on board from barrier 2. I’d be just waiting because I think he could get out a touch on the day, and the $3 mark would look very enticing.

(2) Still Be Friends probably pushes forward from a tricky barrier. He bolted in with a maiden last start and looks very progressive, with Olly taking the ride.

(7) Sea Princess isn’t hopeless at double figures if you can run on early, which has been a bit of a lottery at this track in recent times.

Tip: (5) Seb Song $2.6 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Seb Song

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Near on impossible 1000m race for the 2yo’s. The speed map is up in the air, although (3) Brazen Boy will be one vying for the early lead. It’s been well documented that he won a trial by 14L at Morphettville before being scratched at the gates last start. He was drifting quite heavily there, and the market may again take a set against him late. Either way, he looks short enough at $2.90 in such a big field.

I’ve landed with (5) Gleneagles on top who has looked the part in his jumpouts. He draws barrier 12 which isn’t ideal, but he’s in a good camp and Currie takes the ride.

(13) The Globe was sound on debut behind General Beau and has to be respected.

Tip: (5) Gleneagles $8 TAB

Betting Strategy- No Bet

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Provided (1) Ocean’s Thirteen finds the front from barrier 1, she’ll be hard to beat, but it’s not a given she will. I think she brings the best form behind Tralee Rose last start, and her run prior behind Sovereign Award was also good despite finishing 7th. 3kg claimer Will Price goes on board and if she can avoid being crossed and ending up boxed on the rail, she’ll go close.

(2) Okotoks loves the T/D and is very consistent but maps awkwardly with another 3kg claimer on.

Not much else that really interests me here, and with the potential map queries for the favourite I’m happy to give it a miss for the staking plan.

Tip: (1) Ocean’s Thirteen $3.6 Bet365

Betting Strategy- No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Tough mare’s race, as they always are. I’ll start with (9) November Dreaming because she was so disappointing last start when ridden outside the lead. I definitely think that was against her pattern, because she was so explosive first up, coming from back in the field. I can’t ignore that win or her SP last start in what’s turned out to be a fairly strong form reference. She’s the best horse in the race, Kah takes the ride which is a huge positive, and she draws perfectly in 4 to sit midfield, one off the fence.

(3) Wings Of Pastrami is flying, but the draw really hurts. She’ll have to get a long way back from 12, but her run last start behind Power Scheme was very good.

(7) Ethical Solution ran a bold race for us last start at 100s, not having a whole lot of luck late. Not sure she’s a 1600m horse, and she’s $6.50 with an apprentice on from a wide gate which is enough to be against.

(8) Re Edit was very stiff not to have beaten Rocha Clock first up, but I don’t like her staying at 1600m or 2nd up, especially from a tricky barrier in 2.

Tip: (9) November Dreaming $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN November Dreaming

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

One of the day’s features is the Mckenzie Stakes over 1200m for the 3yo’s. (4) Deep Speed is the favourite coming off a 3rd behind Shelby Cobra over 1400m. I don’t think he ran a strong 1400m (which it was), but I loved his fight late to stay in touch with the winner and only go down by 2.3L. Back to 1200m is a big tick, and his win two back at this T/D when starting $1.65 was dominant.

The form ties in easily with (5) Nicolino Vito who went straight past Show Some Decorum at this T/D last start, with Deep Speed having beaten that horse by 2L here. Nicolino Vito’s last start was a slowly run race and he had the best turn of foot, but I wonder if the race shape will be different here. Deep Speed, coming out of a solid 1400m race should be able to get these off the bit and chasing, and they may not be able to run him down.

(8) Ocean Beyond looked good on debut at Geelong when still doing a few things wrong. He can definitely improve enough to win this.

Deep Speed looks to get map favours and I think brings the strongest form. Nicolino Vito will have a tough time running him down if Deep Speed runs up to his best, especially dropping back to 1200m.

Tip: (4) Deep Speed $3.15 Betfair

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Deep Speed

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(5) Kalkarni Royale looks very well placed here. She’s been taking on much stronger races this prep, including last start at listed level in the Geelong Black Pearl. She started $6 there and ran very well, leading the field and giving a good kick, only beaten 1.9L. The 4 horses that finished ahead of her were 8th, 10th, 11th and 9th at the 400m, and Kalkarni Royale was clearly the best of the on pacers. She’s well in with 58kg, my only slight knock is the drop back to 1000m. She’s had two goes at the trip for a win (which was a maiden on debut) and a 6L defeat to Ancestry, which doesn’t read too badly. From barrier 2, Willo should be able to dominate this race and make it a strongly run affair. If she’s sharp enough over the short course, I think she’s very hard to beat and you’re getting a good price.

(11) Lady Brook brings country NSW form, which is tough to line up, but she bolt in at $1.55 last start which has to be respected.

There’s about 1L covering most of this field- most of them have raced each other in 955m or 1000m races here, and it often comes down to the best ride on the day. Kalkarni Royale brings the different, and better form, she just needs to be suited at the 1000m to be going very close.

Tip: (5) Kalkarni Royale $5.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Kalkarni Royale

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

He hasn’t won for a long time, but (1) Hang Man really gets his chance today. It was a while ago, but he’s a listed middle distance horse at his best and strikes a very winnable race. He was poor first up, but that was over 1400m, and then clearly didn’t handle the heavy 10 at Sale two starts ago. Last start he found some form, running subsequent Ballarat Cup winner Irish Flame to a 0.8L 2nd. Pancho was behind him there and has come out and won a strong Kilmore Cup since. Fourth up here, on a good track, drawn ideally in barrier 3, he won’t get a better chance to record another win.

(2) Bartholomeu Dias had every chance last start in the Kyneton Cup as the well backed favourite. He was only 2nd up there so potentially has more improvement to come. His best Australian runs have come on softer tracks, so perhaps he is better with a bit of give. It wouldn’t shock me if he won, but I’ve left him out.

(8) One More Try comes out of the Matriarch and was a great run there, finishing 4th behind Affair To Remember. That obviously lines up well with Hang Man and Irish Flame. In fact, One More Try ran a narrow 3rd to Irish Flame over 1600m the start prior at this T/D. She’s another that hasn’t won for a long time but is racing very well.

Tip: (1) Hang Man $6.50 Sportsbet

Saver: (8) One More Try $4.85 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Hang Man, 0.5 units WIN One More Try

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Easily the race of the day, the Carlyon Stakes over 1000m and I think the market is completely wrong here. (5) Prezado is near favourite first up, drawn barrier 1 around The Valley, when all his form is down the straight. From 3 attempts he’s managed one 3rd here. He gets Kah on which helps greatly but wait for him to get back to Flemington.

There are three horses coming out of the same race, and all look overs and backable prices. I’ll start with the winner, (1) Sartorial Splendor. They finally let this horse run along at a fast tempo, because holding him up simply doesn’t work. He only won by 0.2L, but he’ll find the front from barrier 3 again and be in front for a long way, which is always a positive betting position. He started $4 there and is double figures here which looks value.

Just 0.2L behind him in 2nd was (4) Condo’s Express. For whatever reason, this horse seems to love The Valley. His form prior to last start was average, although he was completely luckless at Cranbourne two back. He arguably should’ve beaten Sartorial Splendor last start after getting held up and just missing. I can’t understand why he’s $26 here given his excellent record here.

The other horse coming out of that race was (8) Human Nature, who settled midfield and rushed home, only missing by 0.4L. He started $3.10 favourite there and is another that has come up an insane price at $13. He’s had a run since at Sandown behind Shamino where he should’ve finished closer after being held up. Back to The Valley suits, and he’ll be charging late.

(2) Coruscate was in that Sandown race and had to carry 62kg, 6kg more than Human Nature. He gets a 5kg swing for actually beating Human Nature home but did get every chance last start. I can understand why he’s so short, but at 1000m around this course, there are others that look far more suited.

I’m pretty keen to bet here. Condo’s Express will be my best result at $26 which just looks a huge price. Sartorial Splendor and Human Nature will also be good results at double figures.

Tip: (4) Condo’s Express $26 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Sartorial Splendor $10 Sportsbet & (8) Human Nature $13 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 0.75 units E/W Condo’s Express, 0.75 units WIN Sartorial Splendor, 0.75 units WIN Human Nature

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

This looks an ideal race for (6) Overkill, who is my best bet of the day. He’s only had 5 starts, winning 3 of them. He ran first up at Bendigo and the market suggested he wasn’t quite fit enough, drifting out to $5.50 (longer on the exchange) after opening much shorter. Despite that, he ran very well, sitting on pace between two leaders and giving a good kick, only run down late by Hi Stranger, who I believe should’ve won at listed level last week. Also in that race was Riding The Wave, who has won impressively since, and Grandview Avenue, who easily accounted for Meteorite last start.

Overkill gets back to The Valley, where he’s 2/2, and goes up to 1200m where he’s 3/4 (the one miss a 2nd placing). Melham takes over from McNeil, which is probably a positive, especially as Melham is a perfect 3/3 on the horse, and he draws well in barrier 6 to sit just off the speed. He’s already been met with market support, but I think he starts even shorter and I’m pretty keen.

(13) Housay was tough when left out in front at over 1400m in the grey’s race. He’s talented but will now be 5th up in his first prep coming off a fairly taxing run.

(2) Bandersnatch is certainly good enough at his best, with form around Dawn Passage in Sydney, but some of his form before moving stables was just fair.

(1) Leiter was a good winner first up and is 1/1 at the T/D but does map a bit awkwardly from barrier 12.

Tip: (6) Overkill $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN Overkill