Mornington Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 29th

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 1:37pm (AEDT)

(10) Keppel Bay was sound on debut and looks hard to beat here. She was just overrun by an impressive maiden winner at Geelong and there was a big gap back to 3rd. The draw is a bit sticky but with improvement she looks the one to beat.

(5) Place Of Gold has trialled and jumped out well for his home track debut but draws wide and I’m not sure where he’ll get to.

(8) Crossfire Road was okay on debut behind Jezulenko at Geelong who has won again since at Caulfield as favourite. She maps well close to the speed and can run well at a bit of a price.

Not keen to be with either of the two favourites post scratchings.

Tip: (8) Crossfire Road- $10.00/2.55 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Found this tricky. (2) Inner Spirit started $1.60 first up off more than year and was okay but beaten on his merits in 2nd. He should improve lengths from that and if he can get across from the draw should run well.

(7) The Poodle led at a fairly slow tempo and was run down by Fivefingerdiscount at Traralgon. He’s had 4 weeks off but maps to potentially lead again from barrier 1.

(8) Barnsbury looked a touch unlucky over 1000m behind Kick last start and should appreciate 1200m, although he’ll likely be giving some key dangers a decent head start.

(4) Jefferson has jumped out nicely and draws well. 

Tip: (2) Inner Spirit- $2.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Putting (13) Perpetual Grace on top here. She hit the line well to be beaten just 1.5L at Sandown last start in a tougher maiden when wide the trip. First up she simply got too far back from a wide gate but she finally draws inside and gets up to 1500m, both of which can hopefully allow her to settle closer. If that eventuates I think she’s the one to beat.

(6) Foxy Gal was no match after leading here over a mile last start but did gap 3rd and started odds on. She’ll be rock hard fit, has no issues at the trip and maps for a soft run on speed. If the track is advantaging those on pace she’ll be hard to get past.

(7) Hardly Sweet hit the line well on debut but draws very wide here and I expect she’ll get back in the field.

Tip: (13) Perpetual Grace- $3.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Perpetual Grace

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

(10) Magic Promise got too far back over a mile at The Valley last start. The extra trip will suit the daughter of Teofilo, it’s just where she gets to on the map again from barrier 11.

(4) Arohaboy is ready to break through after not having much luck at Warrnambool last start. He’s another that will appreciate 2000m and should lob midfield somewhere.

(6) Great Week wasn’t beaten all that far in the same race at Warrnambool and has upside given this is only his 3rd start. By Frankel, he should appreciate getting to 2000m as well.

(5) Badiss was beaten 5.8L into 3rd on debut over a mile and gets quickly to 2000m which could suit. 

Tip: (10) Magic Promise- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

Looks a good race for (9) Hereforagoodtime who comes out of a strongly run race at The Valley where she was forced wide and ran on well. This looks a bit easier and with even luck from barrier 3 she’ll be hard to beat.

(6) Alterno races well at his home track and is coming off a win at this T/D last start. He had a good run there and this is harder but he should go well again.

(8) Spirit Of Gold was only 2nd up at the mile last start but did well to win. Her only run at 2000m was in a NZ maiden.

(1) Ocean Heart would be very competitive at her best but has been poor her last few. Blinkers go on here which may spark some improvement.

Tip: (9) Hereforagoodtime- $2.80 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Hereforagoodtime

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

(1) Galactic Fury has been a touch disappointing his last two but the effort in a VOBIS race behind Wicklow Town three back reads very well for this. Last start he raced wide in a bm70 and will find this easier, although does have to carry the full 62kg.

(9) Sly Corner might find himself leading this with no pace on paper. He raced like he wants the extra trip last start when sticking on well over 1400m and with the map advantage should be in the finish.

(3) Helavabel gets to 1500m for the first time after hitting the line well at both starts this prep. Kah goes on and he’ll just need the right run as he usually gets a fair way back.

(7) Jungle Jane could be the absolute blowout as she likes her home track and can sprint fresh despite being better over further.

Tip: (9) Sly Corner- $6.50/2.20 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/1.25 units E/W Sly Corner

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 5:07pm (AEDT)

(2) Iknewshewasmine can run well at double figures on her home track. She drops in class after running well at Flemington last start, only beaten 2L. She can race on speed and is consistent. In an open race I think she’s over the odds.

(10) Abrazen Laugh is another that looks overs. He can mix his form a bit but did beat Iknewshewasmine home at Geelong in a race that rated quite well. The wide draw isn’t ideal but the price is attractive.

(11) Sniper Legend should’ve won last start here over 1000m after missing the start and being held up. With a better jump he can land in a good spot from barrier 3 and he has plenty of upside.

(5) Bottom Line can run well fresh. He won on debut and his other 1st up run was a 2nd to Outlaws Revenge in a bm62, with that horse going on to win at listed level in Adelaide recently.

Tip: (2) Iknewshewasmine- $14.00/3.70 at PlayUp

Value: (10) Abrazen Laugh- $17.00/4.20 at TAB

Saver: (5) Bottom Line- $8.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.5 units E/W Iknewshewasmine, 0.25 units WIN Bottom Line, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Abrazen Laugh

Odds Last Updated: December 29, 2021, 5:42pm (AEDT)

(2) Fast ’n’ Deep had genuine excuses last start over 955m when held up behind runners and pulling up lame. She started $3.50 there and looks better suited here from barrier 2 with Childs taking the ride.

(3) Gulf Of Suez is an interesting runner. His 2yo form over 1000m reads well for this including a 3rd in the Blue Diamond Preview. The jumpout footage is inconclusive so it’s hard to gauge where  he’s at as a 3yo.

(5) More will likely try to lead with Kah on. She’s suited at 1000m and will be hard to run down.

Tip: (2) Fast ’n’ Deep- $5.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Fast ’n’ Deep