Newcastle Racing Tips: Thursday, March 18th

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

 

This dash over the 900m doesn’t have a lot of depth to it and I am expecting a home track win for (4) Excelness. There is a good chance we are going to have a bit of rain of race day which won’t worry this daughter of Exceed and Excel going off her debut run. She led over the 1000m at Port Macquarie and was still leading until about 100m out when the favourite Buck Pharaoh took over to salute by a length. She did manage to put the rest of the field away by 2.3 lengths which will be a big confidence booster for her. She has drawn wide here which is fine because she will stride forward anyway, and she gets in nicely with the 3kg claim of Dylan Gibbons. Expect her to be too hard to run down.

Tip: (4) Excelness $2.00

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Excelness FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 1:42pm (AEDT)

 

Unlike the first race on the card, this is a lot more open. (2) Duais is the one I want to be with on the back of a placing over the 1800m at Hawkesbury. The daughter of Shamus Award was a bit wound up behind the gates and had to be vetted prior to the race beginning and then she also ran keen throughout the race. She managed to finish less than a length in second behind Duty, beating the rest of the field by 1.3 lengths+ which consisted of Yiyi, Ahso and Segrill. Three starts ago she proved her worth by qualifying for the Provincial Summer Final at Wyong but when she got there, she missed the kick, and it was race over. This is the easiest she has faced since breaking her maiden back in December, so expect Christian Reith to put her in the best position possible from barrier 4 and for her to be the one to beat in the straight.

Tip: (2) Duais $3.80

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Duais FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 2:21pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 3:01pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

 

This girl has earnt the weight she is about to carry and with the key scratching of All Hallows’ Eve, (1) Bellevue Star is the one I want to be with here. She has been off the scene for almost a year but her form last preparation has to put her right into this. She broke her maiden well at Canterbury beating home Elizabeel and Kiku which alone would have made her a short price favourite here before running in two listed races before heading to the paddock. She did have three trials in September/October last year but must have had a set back as she didn’t trial again until February this year. That trial wasn’t overly impressive though I do think she will be up to the mark first-up though she will have the task of 61kg. This is the easiest she would have contended since breaking her maiden status, so I expect her to be in the finish.

Tip: (1) Bellevue Star $4.40

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Bellevue Star FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 18, 2021, 5:27pm (AEDT)

 

After being scratched from Kensington for this race, I want to be with this bloke considering I had him on top there also. This is a lot easier for him, so I expect him to be competitive.

(2) Senor Toba is a gorgeous grey gelding who has only had the two race starts earlier this year, where both times he had significant ground to finish off well. Last start was impressive, circling the field at Moonee Valley to lengthen out to a 1.75 length win, which was very well rated. He has had a nice top up trial in preparation for this one though he does come back 200m, I don’t see it a big concern. If he can replicate his rating from his Moonee Valley win, he will go very close here.

Tip: (2) Senor Toba $12.00/$3.80

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN, 1 unit PLACE Senor Toba FIXED