Pakenham Racing Tips: Saturday December 4th

It’s Pakenham Cup Day, with the club set to host their standalone Saturday meeting. 

Trent Crebbin has analysed every race and his best bet comes up in Race 9.

The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is true which should mean a fair deck.

Best Bet- Race 9 (5) Kissinger

Best Value- Race 6 (9) Defiant Dancer & (4) Munitions 

Race 1- John Duff & Co (bm70) 1600m (12:35 AEDT)

The favourite (4) Lyrical Lad was dominant on the heavy 10 at Cranbourne but I thought he was short enough here given his form prior was just fair. Looking to bet around him.

(7) Tycoon Bec was rock solid first up at 1500m and should come on from that. She pulled up with a slow recovery there and went unbeaten in her first prep. She can roll forward and slot in 1-1 which will see her hard to beat.

(3) High ‘n’ Dry didn’t handle the heavy track last start when $6.50 in a fairly strong race. His run first up behind Maybe The Best signalled he’d come back well, and now 3rd up at 1600m he’s ready to win. Happy to back him.

Tip: (7) Tycoon Bec- $3.80 at Bet365

Value: (3) High ‘n’ Dry- $8.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tycoon Bec, 0.5 units WIN High ‘n’ Dry

Race 2- Momentum Gaming (bm78) 1400m (1:10pm AEDT)

Tough little race. (9) Sweet Sixteen wasn’t suited last start on the Lakeside on a hard day to make ground. Her last 600m was the fastest of the meeting. Barrier 1 isn’t ideal but there’s good speed on paper and if Moor can weave through she’s ready to win.

(8) Standoff will also get back and run on. She’s never raced at Pakenham but she’s a big track horse and should appreciate it. Her run at The Valley last start was solid and I prefer her at 1400m.

(6) Maybe The Best is very consistent and can take a sit behind the speed from barrier 2. She’s now 5th up coming off a heavy 10 run which is perhaps a slight query.

(5) Groovy Kinda Love had no hope given the race shape over 1800m last start at Fleminton. She’s been freshened and drops to a faster run 1400m which could suit.

Tip: (9) Sweet Sixteen- $17.00/4.20 at Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Standoff- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Sweet Sixteen, 0.25 units WIN Standoff

Race 3- Iron Jack Aust. Lagers (bm78) 1000m (1:45 AEDT)

(10) Winsum can win this fresh. I think he’s best kept to 1000/1100m and struggled past that last prep. Regardless, he took on some strong races and ran very well behind the likes of Minhaaj and Curran. His first up win over 1000m at $1.45 was huge and he maps to sit midfield behind a hot speed.

(9) Brownie is still in the race as I write, but I think she’s racing at The Valley in the 955m race where she’s $1.85 and very hard to beat. If she’s here she’s a massive chance but will cop plenty of pressure from some fast horses.

(1) Wagner is the absolute blow out. He’s most likely completely gone and we haven’t seen him for 18 months, but he does race very well fresh with 3 wins and a 2nd from 5 starts. Off his best form a couple of years ago he’d win a bm78 race doing cartwheels. At $51 I don’t want to lose on him.

Expecting Brownie to come out and Winsum to be around $2.80 and making him a 2 unit bet. If Brownie stays in, just having the 1 unit on him at $4.6.

Tip: (10) Winsum- $4.60 at Ladbrokes

Value: (1) Wagner- $51.00/11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Winsum, 0.25 units E/W Wagner

Race 4- Fulmen Park (bm70) 1000m (2:20 AEDT)

(1) Marine One has been freshened after taking on the Coolmore over 1200m, beaten 6.3L by potential superstar Home Affairs. His two wins prior over 975m and 1000m were very good, and he maps for a soft run here. 

(3) Unflinching has looked good leading throughout in his two career starts. He’s a fast horse that can come across and will take plenty of running down. If Marine One is below his best, Unflinching looks your winner.

(4) Cecil Street Lad next best first up but the draw is a touch sticky and I think one of the top two will win.

Confident Marine One or Unflinching wins and if you shop around you can back the former and save the latter. Effectively taking $1.08 Unflinching and getting around $3.15 for Marine One with this staking plan.

Tip: (1) Marine One- $4.40 at Bet365

Saver: (3) Unflinching- $3.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Marine One, 1 unit WIN Unflinching

Race 5- 9mile Fresh Hcp 1600m (3:00 AEDT)

(7) Frankie Pinot keeps racing well but getting too far back and flying home. He gets out to 1600m for the first time which will be interesting. Not sure if he’s just a backmarker or looking for more ground, but with 51kg he’ll take some holding out.

(1) Hi Stranger has to give him 9kg but is racing well. It was a tough win in the Kilmore Cup which was a fast run race. He maps nicely. 

(2) Don’t Doubt Dory beat Hi Stranger when they met at The Valley earlier this year and meets him better at the weights. Surprised he failed so badly on the heavy track last start in the Cranbourne Cup given he usually loves it.

Not particularly interested betting here unless Frankie Pinot got out to $2.80+.

Tip: (7) Frankie Pinot- $2.15 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 6- Schweppes David Bourke Mem. 1200m (3:40pm AEDT)

(9) Defiant Dancer can run a big race on his home track. He was solid first up at 1000m behind Halvorsen and Malkovich and is much better suited at 1200m. His 2nd up record is very strong with 2 wins and a 3rd from 3 starts, and he’s run very well in group company before. Gets in with 51kg after the claim which I love for this horse, he’ll be letting rip late.

(8) Ocean Beyond got the cash for us last start, getting a late gap and sprinting well. He didn’t run out the 1400m prior and maps for an identical run just behind the leaders here.

(4) Munitions comes out of the best race behind Quantico which rated through the roof. He mixed his form last prep but might be ready to show his best in Australia this prep. No surprise to see him backed early.

(1) Blazejowski next best, he was good first up and can improve, just has to give a few good horses weight.

Tip: (9) Defiant Dancer- $8.50/2.80 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (4) Munitions- $7.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Defiant Dancer, 1 unit PLC Defiant Dancer, 0.5 units WIN Munitions

Race 7- Sportsbet Pakenham Cup 2500m (4:20pm AEDT)

Keen on (8) Smokin’ Romans in the Cup. He was backed into $2.50 in the Bendigo Cup and just missed on the line. He was effectively only 2nd up there so could improve again and gets J Kah back on. Small query on the barrier because the 2500m start here is a bit tricky, but with any early luck he’s the horse to beat.

Been waiting for (14) Mimi’s Award to get to this race. She didn’t have much luck in the Matriarch two back and was doing her best work late last start at Ballarat over 2000m. Her best win came over 2500m in an SA fillies classic and she’ll be perfectly primed for this.

(10) Team Captain is flying since joining the Cumani stable, having bolted in over 2800m last start at Flemington. This is a tougher test and he’s back slightly in trip, but he’s hard to knock.

(4) Mosh Music is good enough when right but as much as I love her, it’s hard to see her turning the tables on Smokin’ Romans from last start. Her Naturalism run over 2000m earlier this prep was very good and you could do worse than her at $41.

Tip: (8) Smokin’ Romans- $3.50 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (14) Mimi’s Award- $13.00 at TopSport

Value: (4) Mosh Music- $41.00/9.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Smokin’ Romans, 0.5 units WIN Mimi’s Award, 0.25 units E/W Mosh Music

Race 8- Racing.com Vobis Gold Bullion 1400m (5:00pm AEDT)

Huge opportunity to bet around the favourite (1) Yulong January. I like the horse but he typically improves into a prep and peaks 3rd/4th up. He is first up at 1400m which may help but off one inconclusive jumpout he might need the run and target the summer racing.

That leaves (11) Way To Go Paula as the horse to beat. She got a mile back at Ballarat over 1200m last start on a day that was hard to make ground, flying home for a 2.5L 2nd to Duchess Of Dorset. She’s run well at 1400m so I’m happy to ignore her record and J Kah jumping on doesn’t hurt. If Kah can get her into a running line she can run them down.

(7) Turbeau is flying coming off consecutive victories but this is tougher again.

(2) Winning Partner the other top 4 hope after an improved run at The Valley last start. He’s run well at 1400m in strong Victorian company.

Tip: (11) Way To Go Paula- $3.70 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Way To Go Paula

Race 9- Sportsbet Bet With Mates (bm78) 2000m (5:40 AEDT)

(5) Kissinger is my best bet of the day. He’s absolutely ready to peak here 4th up after an unlucky run last start in a harder race. He was 1500 up to 2000m there and couldn’t really get clear air late, beaten 0.7L. The claim helps, he draws well and looks the winner. No surprise to see him backed, expect him to start $2.60ish.

(1) Wyclif was good first up over a mile and is better suited at 2000m. Some of his form last prep reads well for a race like this, finishing just behind Grand Promenade in a bm84 at Caulfield.

Pretty keen on Kissinger- this isn’t a strong race and he should be winning.

Tip: (5) Kissinger- $3.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Kissinger