Racing Tips

Pakenham Racing Tips: Thursday, January 28th

For those who like to knock-off, head home, crack a beer, and dabble on the races—our focus turns to the twilight meeting at Pakenham. Once again, ‘The Horse’ has done the homework for you.

by
The Horse
27 January 2021

For those who like to knock-off, head home, crack a beer, and dabble on the races—our focus turns to the twilight meeting at Pakenham. Once again, ‘The Horse’ has done the homework for you in Race 2, Race 3, Race 4 and Race 8.

Race 1

Iron Jack Aust. Lagers Mdn (1200m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Iron Jack Aust. Lagers Mdn (1200m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Camaguey (1) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.7
2. Daily Bugle (4) J: Lewis German (58kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	27	26	29.5	26
3. Danaustar (6) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4. Race Against Time (3) J: Luke Currie (58kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	8.5	7.5	7.4	6.5
5. Rock Artist (7) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: K & K Keys	13	14	12.8	12
6. Tramontana (2) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	1.65	1.7	1.7	1.7
7. Gracie Turf (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: Ms D Clover	27	26	33	31

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1200m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1200m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Crafty Eyes (7) J: Daniel Stackhouse (59.5kg) T: B J Mccarthy	101	101	161	101
2. Suthebys (10) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (59.5kg) T: G T Jolly	201	151	261	151
3. Babylon Warrior (3) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: J F Moloney	21	19	23.5	18
4. Deora (4) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	23	26	26.5	21
5. Grand Pope (2) J: Rhys Mcleod (58kg) T: Nick Ryan	8.5	8	8.9	9
6. I Am Mamwaazel (6) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	3.8	4	3.6	4
7. Mr Vista (8) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	6	6	5.9	6
8. Yorker (1) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	10	9	10.4	9
9. Zoutellus (9) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: K & K Keys	2.6	2.6	2.55	2.6
10. High Rewards (5) J: Beau Mertens (56kg) T: Jerome Hunter	21	21	24.5	23

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Starting at double-figures last start, (6) I Am Mamwaazal will be starting shorter today. That first-up performance was solid, coming from 7^th in running to arrive 3^rd, letting down well and posting some handy closing times (34.06 final 600 metres). He’ll bring some additional race fitness into this one, maintains the rider Thomas Stockdale, and gets a favourable draw with the speed runners appearing to be on his outside. He looks to have improvement to come, but he will not have it all his way. There are a few other quality looking gallopers taking him on, (7) Mr Vista for the Price/Kent stable and (8) Yorker for the Hawkes yard are both right in contention. (9) Zoutellus rounds out the four.

Tip: (6) I Am Mamwaazal $3.80 Bet365

Race 3

Tas Magic Millions Voucher Mdn (1600m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Tas Magic Millions Voucher Mdn (1600m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Buble Boy (9) J: Unknown (59.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
2. Fighter (7) J: Luke Currie (59.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	1.9	2	2	2
3. Gentleman Roy (3) J: Mark Zahra (59.5kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	3.8	3.9	3.8	4
4. Herzl (4) J: Noel Callow (59.5kg) T: G R Mallinson	151	151	281	151
5. Tak Ne (6) J: Michael Walker (59.5kg) T: Michelle Huddart	67	81	101	81
6. Metung Marvin (11) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: Ms C Alderson
7. Omoide (5) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: D T O'brien	18	20	17.6	19
8. Yuanno (2) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: T Rogers	12	12	11.6	12
9. Save The Story (10) J: Ms Kate Walters (57.5kg) T: Wayne Walters	201	151	321	151
10. Bring It Bella (1) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	17	15	19.2	14
11. My Squeeze Louise (8) J: Lachlan King (56kg) T: Denis Pagan	5.5	5	5	5

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Do we take the $1.85 on offer for (2) Fighter after four consecutive second places? He was beaten comprehensively last start by Senor Toba, but the start prior he missed the maiden victory by a head. He isn’t a non-winner just yet, and he finds a race that he can take that next step. You can all but eliminate the field bar a few, so he should find himself somewhere mid-field in running. With even luck he’ll just need to get by a couple of the better horses. I cannot see Luke Currie and the McEvoy leaving it to chance, so expect him to come out a touch early to allow time to come over them. (11) My Squeeze Louise comes from the same lead-in race and can also run well, while (4) Gentleman Roy comes from a handy stable.

Tip: (2) Fighter $1.92 Sportsbetting

Race 4

Wise Choice Catering Mdn (1400m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Wise Choice Catering Mdn (1400m) 7:30pm (AEDT)
1. Beast (11) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	8.5	9.5	8.2	7.5
2. Bellinger (7) J: Mark Zahra (58kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	2.25	2.15	2.2	2.3
3. Imagine Howe (14) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
4. Magnus Bellagio (1) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	17	21	18.2	13
5. Notmyfirstrodeo (8) J: Jordan Childs (58kg) T: G M Begg	41	41	41	41
6. Penitentiary (2) J: Thomas Stockdale (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	6.5	6.5	6.6	7
7. Djounie (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	20	26	26	14
8. Glitzy Girl (9) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: T & C Mcevoy	4	4.4	4.05	4.2
9. Haveyouzeena (6) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield	41	67	53	41
10. Street Glow (10) J: Daniel Moor (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra	51	61	51	71
11. Stylish Icon (5) J: Brian Park (56kg) T: Patrick Keane
12. Zoumatic (13) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	31	21	27	34
13. Picture Diss (3) J: Beau Mertens (58kg) T: Gavin Bedggood
14. Politicalinfluence (12) J: Ms Kiran Quilty (58kg) T: S P Nichols

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

A decent size field takes on the 1400 metre maiden here. (2) Bellinger ran well for 2^nd behind Big Flash last start (who runs as favourite today in the final race – a BM64). That day he came from towards the back of the field to get the minor result, and the step up in distance is a positive decision by the stable. Admittedly, his form is not overly convincing, but it appears one of those races where you can draw a line through many others—and you’re only left with a couple. The other one of interest is (8) Glitzy Girl who placed behind I’m Thunderstruck (who looked to have some quality) and Palace Whisper. Palace Whisper went on to compete in a tougher maiden than this, but was a touch disappointing after starting favourite. Keen to have something on her at the better value. And Bellinger as a saver.

Tip: (8) Glitzy Girl $4.20 TAB

Also backing: (2) Bellinger $3.30

Race 5

De Bortoli Wines Hcp (C1) (1400m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5 De Bortoli Wines Hcp (C1) (1400m) 8:00pm (AEDT)
1. Duke Of Neworleans (3) J: Ethan Brown (59kg) T: M M Laurie	1.85	1.85	1.9	1.95
2. Warlist (9) J: Michael Carson (59kg) T: G M Carson	71	81	101	61
3. Diamonds'n'stones (5) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	4.6	4.2	4.4	4
4. Redissent (1) J: Patrick Moloney (58kg) T: J F Moloney	14	14	15	11
5. Ruby Street (6) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: K L Corstens	3.2	3.4	3.25	3.5
6. Sebsilk (2) J: Beau Mertens (57.5kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold
7. Wild Spree (8) J: Billy Egan (56.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
8. Fast 'N' Forward (7) J: Ms Kate Walters (55.5kg) T: Wayne Walters	91	101	85	71
9. So Awesome (4) J: Michael Dee (55kg) T: B J Mccarthy	81	151	111	126

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Race 6

John Duff & Co (Bm64) (1400m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 6 John Duff & Co (Bm64) (1400m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Cafe Tortoni (1) J: Billy Egan (61kg) T: Patrick Payne	5	4.8	5.1	4.8
2. Key To The Mak (2) J: Jamie Mott (60.5kg) T: Luke Oliver	11	11	11.6	11
3. Bianconi Magic (7) J: Ethan Brown (60kg) T: Jerome Hunter	9	10	8.6	9.5
4. Palacio Musico (3) J: Thomas Stockdale (60kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes	21	18	21	17
5. Gutsy (10) J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
6. Mrs Sippy (4) J: Beau Mertens (59kg) T: J Warren & D Krongold	15	15	16.4	17
7. Tycoon Bella (8) J: Michael Walker (59kg) T: Ms C Alderson	8.5	8.5	8.2	8
8. Wise Counsel (6) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	7.5	8	7.9	7.5
9. Big Acheeva (9) J: Michael Poy (58.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield
10. Coup De Tonnerre (5) J: Craig Williams (57.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani	2.35	2.35	2.4	2.5

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Parklea (Bm64) (1600m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Parklea (Bm64) (1600m) 9:00pm (AEDT)
1. Schweinsteiger (8) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (62.5kg) T: D J Walkley	9	10	9.9	10
2. Category Five (5) J: Jye Mcneil (62kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	4.5	4.8	4.65	4.6
3. Sahar (7) J: Billy Egan (62kg) T: Patrick Payne	18	20	19.2	19
4. Bag Raider (14) J: Jamie Mott (61.5kg) T: Scott Cameron	11	12	10.6	12
5. Robe De Fete (3) J: Michael Walker (61kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	10	11	10	11
6. Eluding (12) J: Luke Currie (60.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
7. Deelbraka (9) J: Jake Noonan (60kg) T: David & Coral Feek
8. Il Divo (4) J: Jordan Childs (60kg) T: G M Begg	5.5	6	5.6	6
9. Necessary (6) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: E Jusufovic	4.6	3.8	4.65	3.9
10. Rebel Racer (2) J: Noel Callow (58kg) T: M A Kavanagh
11. Pacific Rim (13) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56.5kg) T: P Stokes	5.5	4.8	4.85	4.8
12. Rich Dane (11) J: Beau Mertens (56.5kg) T: Jerome Hunter
13. Victory Approach (10) J: Ms Michelle Payne (56kg) T: Michelle Payne	41	51	45	41
14. Rippa Choice (1) J: Harry Grace (58kg) T: Sarah Zschoke

Odds Last Updated: January 29, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m) 9:30pm (AEDT)
1. Dothraki King (6) J: Jamie Mott (61kg) T: Luke Oliver	20	19	21.5	19
2. Cowley's Creek (3) J: Billy Egan (60kg) T: Patrick Payne	13	13	13.2	12
3. Altai Ranger (4) J: Matthew Cartwright (59.5kg) T: J D Sadler	7	6	6.2	6
4. Tycoon Thunder (1) J: Jake Noonan (58.5kg) T: S P Nichols	9	10	9.4	10
5. Villa Villekulla (10) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: Patrick Payne	3.1	3.1	3.2	3.2
6. Vancouver Lad (9) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	13	14	14.2	14
7. Big Flash (5) J: Jye Mcneil (57.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson	3.7	3.8	3.65	3.7
8. Little Richie Turf (8) J: Daniel Stackhouse (57kg) T: Ms D Clover	31	31	30	31
9. Ellehcim (7) J: Will Gordon (56kg) T: Logan Mcgill	18	20	19.6	21
10. Alluring Grace (2) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (55.5kg) T: Logan Mcgill	21	21	23	21
11. Ryan's Girl (11) J: Unknown (55kg) T: R Pecora

Odds Last Updated: February 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

If Bellinger races well tonight than it brings the favourite (7) Big Flash into contention, but if he fails, then suddenly the form looks less appealing. Either way, his favourite status looks a little weak against this field. He is stepping up in grade straight to a BM64 but maintains the services of Jye McNeil.

You could make a case for several of the others, including (5) Villa Villekulla & (3) Altai Ranger. But it’s the price on offer for (2) Cowley’s Creek which grabs my attention. Proven first-up and already a place-getter in this grade, he gets a handy draw where he can drop in behind the leaders. If the track is playing towards the back-markers—or at least giving them an even chance—than this looks a winnable race. Happy to back the Payne & Eagan combination for an each-way value bet.

Tip: (2) Cowley’s Creek $10.00 Sportsbetting

The Horse

The Horse found the thought of placing bets and drinking beers much more appealing once he was married, and that led to an interest in the many intricacies of The Great Game. He enjoys the challenge of predicting what will happen in any given race, but also loves horses themselves, none more so than the mighty mudlark Jungle Edge. His focus lies on metropolitan racing in Victoria and NSW, however isn’t afraid to find one out wide. Away from racing, The Horse is an avid drummer – quite a difficult task with a set of hooves.